Erol Akcay
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akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay
@akcay.theoretical.bio
3.9K followers 3.7K following 330 posts

Ecology, evolution, and social dynamics at the University of Pennsylvania. He/him
https://akcay.theoretical.bio

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Sociology 16%
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akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · Nov 6
I deleted my twitter/X account. I am now only on here and (rarely) on Mastodon.

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Peter Thorne, Gavin A. Schmidt , and 9 more

drandrewthaler.bsky.social
Andrew D Thaler @drandrewthaler.bsky.social · 4h
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.

The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.

The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.

Why?

It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.

Reposted by Philip Nel, David R. Miller, Erol Akçay

crampell.bsky.social
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 1d
Astonishing how hard this administration is working to keep people hungry.
It's clear they are trying maximize public suffering, in hopes of getting people to blame Dems for that suffering. But it's transparently the White House working overtime to keep the suffering going!
bsky.app/profile/cram...
crampell.bsky.social Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 1d
Yikes. USDA sent threatening letter to states telling them that if they sent out EBT money —which many states did during the window when a lower court said SNAP funds had to be released—they have to take it back (?)
Trying to sort out what this means and if states even can claw back the funds

Reposted by Erol Akçay

angierasmussen.bsky.social
Angie Rasmussen @angierasmussen.bsky.social · 1d
We don’t talk enough about how Operation Warp Speed saved many lives in spite of Trump, nor how many people died because of his failure of leadership. Great piece from my great colleague @maciekboni.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/maciekbo...
COVID’s leadership failures
Two moments that were too big for us, and the unfixable chain of mistakes that was set off after November 2020
open.substack.com

Reposted by Erol Akçay

maciekboni.bsky.social
Maciej F Boni @maciekboni.bsky.social · 1d
What were you doing 5 years ago today ? I think a lot of us forgot the news that was delivered and the failures that followed. Important reminder here:

maciekboni.substack.com/p/covids-lea...

Please click subscribe. It's free.

Reposted by Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Scott L. Greer , and 4 more

riegerreport.bsky.social
JM Rieger @riegerreport.bsky.social · 2d
During an event on Thursday, Donald Trump seemed to repeatedly struggle to keep his eyes open.

A Washington Post analysis of multiple video feeds found that Trump spent roughly 20 minutes battling to keep his eyes open.

New video w/ @ddiamond.bsky.social

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Reposted by Stephen M. Walt, Joanna Bryson, James Q. Wilson , and 12 more

donmoyn.bsky.social
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 4d
The elimination of USAID was an unforgivable moral atrocity that should haunt Trump, Elon Musk and Marco Rubio for the rest of their days and beyond

Reposted by Matthew Bunn, Gordon Pennycook, Rosemary A. Joyce , and 15 more

gregsargent.bsky.social
Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 6d
These big wins will embolden Dems to take on Trump's lawbreaking and show there's a price for GOP enabling of him. Folks hate to hear this, but normal patterns are asserting themselves: Liberalism isn't dead, Rs are likely to lose in 2026, and Trump is really unpopular, not a magical exception.

Reposted by Erol Akçay

ferniecommaalex.bsky.social
Alex Fernie @ferniecommaalex.bsky.social · 6d
Several hundred kids just marched past my house because John Marshall High is doing an anti-ICE walk out.

LA's tradition of high schoolers using their voices to push back on racism and inequality is really an inspiring thing.

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Rosemary A. Joyce, Efrén O. Pérez , and 18 more

jamellebouie.net
jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 6d
i want to repeat this: mamdani and spanberger have run similar campaigns tailored to their respective electorates and it is maddening to watch political journalists attempt to create some broad contrast where none exist
jamellebouie.net jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 6d
the other thing about this is that there is no reason to pit these candidates against each other? each are good fits for their respective electorates and each shows the value of vigorous campaigns focused on the stated material problems of voters.

Reposted by James Q. Wilson, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ian Campbell , and 6 more

reichlinmelnick.bsky.social
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 7d
In Chicago, a woman was driving to get coffee when a DHS vehicle fleeing an angry crowd crashed into her car. Armed agents jumped out of the vehicle, yanked her door open, pulled her by the legs out of her car at gunpoint, held her incommunicado for hours, then released her with no charges.
Dayanne Figueroa was on her way to get coffee before heading to work when she encountered a chaotic scene in West Town: heavily armed, masked federal agents making arrests on a residential street. People yelled as vehicles honked their horn — a sign now used to alert neighbors that immigration federal agents are in the area — and witnesses said federal agents had arrested several landscaper workers presumed to be in the country without authorization. As Figuero tried to drive through the 1600 block of West Hubbard Street on Friday, Oct. 10, an unmarked vehicle driven by federal agents collided with Figueroa’s as it tried to speed away from a hostile crowd, multiple videos reviewed by the Tribune show. Seconds after the crash, agents abruptly stopped their vehicle and exited with weapons in hand pointing at Figueroa, a U.S citizen. Agents then forcibly opened her door and pulled her out of the vehicle by her legs without identifying themselves, presenting a warrant or informing her that she was under arrest. As bystanders yelled, “You hit her! We have it on video!” agents ignored the crowd and forced Figueroa into a red minivan and drove away. Her car was left behind in the middle of the road, her coffee still in the cup holder, and her keys in plain view.

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Kevin F. McCarthy, Nazita Lajevardi , and 4 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 8d
The welfare state is about dignity, equality, and making people not poor, but as @itsafronomics.bsky.social says/cites here, it’s often also an investment that more than pays for itself
itsafronomics.bsky.social Anna Gifty @itsafronomics.bsky.social · 10d
Why should you 🫵🏿 care about SNAP? SNAP recipients saw:

- Improved life expectancy
- Lower chance of incarceration
- Lowers chance of poverty
- Lived in better neighborhoods
- Higher human capital

SNAP keeps our neighbors fed, communities safer, and kids educated. Also people are HUNGRY. DUH!

Reposted by Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, David Passmore , and 2 more

timdickinson.bsky.social
Tim Dickinson @timdickinson.bsky.social · 9d
More Insta snaps from the let them eat cake ball at Mar a Lago

Reposted by Cas Mudde, Aaron Sojourner, Adrian Daub , and 6 more

nhannahjones.bsky.social
Ida Bae Wells @nhannahjones.bsky.social · 9d
Let’s be clear, most EBT users are white. The reason he’s specifically lying about “weaves” and we’ve seen so many AI fakes of Black women ranting about food stamps is they need to make BW the face EBT because they know many Americans don’t care if Black people suffer, and some actually wish for it.
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 10d
ROB SCHMITT: People are using SNAP benefits to get their nails done, to get their weaves and their hair. This is a really ugly program.

SEN. RON JOHNSON: That program needs to be dramatically reformed.

Reposted by Erol Akçay

vanhollen.senate.gov
Senator Chris Van Hollen @vanhollen.senate.gov · 10d
🚨NEWS: Two federal judges just ruled the Trump Admin MUST use emergency funds to continue providing SNAP benefits during the shutdown.

They tried to use hungry kids as political pawns instead of coming to the table to reopen the government. Shameful.
Two federal judges require Trump administration tap into emergency funds to partially cover food stamp benefits | CNN Politics
Two federal judges said Friday that the Trump administration must tap into billions of dollars in emergency funds to at least partially cover food stamp benefits for tens of millions of Americans in N...
www.cnn.com

Reposted by Elizabeth Sharrow, Nina Jankowicz, Menzie Chinn , and 11 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 10d
sure, you might not be able to eat or go to the doctor, but check out how nice Trump's new marble shitter is
I renovated the Lincoln Bathroom in the White House. It was renovated in the 1940s in an art deco green tile style, which was totally inappropriate for the Lincoln Era. I did it in black and white polished Statuary marble. This was very appropriate for the time of Abraham Lincoln and, in fact, could be the marble that was originally there!

Reposted by Joe R. Feagin, Michael Kevane, Michael Zimmer , and 3 more

corybooker.com
Cory Booker @corybooker.com · 10d
Thank you Congressman Neguse for laying it plain.

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 10d
Thanks for the kind words!

Reposted by Erol Akçay

olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social
Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 12d
don't have a lot left to say about the Nazi tat discourse other than the general observation that when some say they oppose "moralism" they mean they oppose self-indulgent or otherwise unprincipled appeals to faux-morality and when others say they oppose "moralism" they mean they oppose morals

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
Aww, shucks! Thanks! Hope you like the paper! ☺️

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
*partisanship, which we define as how long a given party supporter…

(I have really lost the habit of writing long threads, maybe for the best).

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
Here’s the paper link once more if you’ve read this far. Comments welcome! /fin

osf.io/preprints/so...
OSF
osf.io

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
In all, we think that the ecological approach has promise to resolve some long-standing questions and answer some new ones about how political parties compete. It might also, perhaps, lead to some better interventions to make our political systems healthier. 13/

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
Finally, we consider another classic ecological and political question: can a 3rd party (species) invade a two-party system, perhaps filling a niche in the center? The answer turns out to be no: a centrist 3rd party can’t outcompete the incumbents, b/c the centrist voters remain disengaged. 12/

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
Paradoxically, though, which we define as how long a given party supporter spends with their current party before reconsidering, increases even as overall voters reconsider their choices more often, because ppl become either non-voters or more habitual voters of one party. 11/

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
Making voters less loyal causes the centrist voters (that are courted by both parties) to disengage from both parties, which reduces the incentive of the parties to compete for them! Instead, they go for the voters whose support they can keep, which are those on the extremes! 10/

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
Second, we find that the rate at which voters reconsider their party support has unexpected effects: one might think (and pundits routinely say) that making voters less loyal to their chosen party should incentivize parties to moderate their positions. But we find the opposite! 9/

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
Interesting results follow from this simple model. First, w/o further assumptions, we dispense with the median voter theorem. Instead, parties need to differentiate from each other in order to co-exist, just like species differentiating in their resource use (“limiting similarity” in Ecology). 8/

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
Voters, of course, aren’t seeds: they don’t wait around to be picked up by politicians. People decide to support a party by talking to other people (online or IRL), so we model party support as a contagion process depending on the parties’ positions, and find the optimal positions of the parties. 7/

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
These finches eat seeds and the various species have different sized beaks that make them better at cracking different sized seeds. We propose that we can think of political parties analogously: they take positions in a political space that make them more or less appealing to different voters. 6/
A graph of three normal (bell shaped) curves with the x-axis denoting political position: a black curve gives the distribution of voters, with most voters around the center position. Red and Blue curves gives the appeal of parties 1 and 2 to voters at each position. In this example, the parties’ modal appeals are offset from the center to either side.

Reposted by Joanna Bryson

akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay @akcay.theoretical.bio · 12d
We take a fresh approach to the question, taking inspiration from another major branch of science that studies competition: Ecology. Ecologists have been thinking for a long time about how species that rely on similar resources, like Darwin’s finches in the Galapagos, can co-exist. 5/
Illustrations of heads of four Darwin’s finch species, by John Gould (14.Sep.1804 - 3.Feb.1881) - From "Voyage of the Beagle" as found on https://darwin-online.org.uk/converted/published/1845_Beagle_F14/1845_Beagle_F14_fig07.jpg]; also online through Biodiversity Heritage Library at https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/page/2010582., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3918303