Erol Akcay
akcay.theoretical.bio
Erol Akcay
@akcay.theoretical.bio

Ecology, evolution, and social dynamics at the University of Pennsylvania. He/him
https://akcay.theoretical.bio

Biology 27%
Sociology 16%
Pinned
I deleted my twitter/X account. I am now only on here and (rarely) on Mastodon.
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.

The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.

The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.

Why?

It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
Astonishing how hard this administration is working to keep people hungry.
It's clear they are trying maximize public suffering, in hopes of getting people to blame Dems for that suffering. But it's transparently the White House working overtime to keep the suffering going!
bsky.app/profile/cram...
Yikes. USDA sent threatening letter to states telling them that if they sent out EBT money —which many states did during the window when a lower court said SNAP funds had to be released—they have to take it back (?)
Trying to sort out what this means and if states even can claw back the funds

Reposted by Erol Akçay

We don’t talk enough about how Operation Warp Speed saved many lives in spite of Trump, nor how many people died because of his failure of leadership. Great piece from my great colleague @maciekboni.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/maciekbo...
COVID’s leadership failures
Two moments that were too big for us, and the unfixable chain of mistakes that was set off after November 2020
open.substack.com

Reposted by Erol Akçay

What were you doing 5 years ago today ? I think a lot of us forgot the news that was delivered and the failures that followed. Important reminder here:

maciekboni.substack.com/p/covids-lea...

Please click subscribe. It's free.
During an event on Thursday, Donald Trump seemed to repeatedly struggle to keep his eyes open.

A Washington Post analysis of multiple video feeds found that Trump spent roughly 20 minutes battling to keep his eyes open.

New video w/ @ddiamond.bsky.social

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
The elimination of USAID was an unforgivable moral atrocity that should haunt Trump, Elon Musk and Marco Rubio for the rest of their days and beyond
These big wins will embolden Dems to take on Trump's lawbreaking and show there's a price for GOP enabling of him. Folks hate to hear this, but normal patterns are asserting themselves: Liberalism isn't dead, Rs are likely to lose in 2026, and Trump is really unpopular, not a magical exception.

Reposted by Erol Akçay

Several hundred kids just marched past my house because John Marshall High is doing an anti-ICE walk out.

LA's tradition of high schoolers using their voices to push back on racism and inequality is really an inspiring thing.
i want to repeat this: mamdani and spanberger have run similar campaigns tailored to their respective electorates and it is maddening to watch political journalists attempt to create some broad contrast where none exist
the other thing about this is that there is no reason to pit these candidates against each other? each are good fits for their respective electorates and each shows the value of vigorous campaigns focused on the stated material problems of voters.
In Chicago, a woman was driving to get coffee when a DHS vehicle fleeing an angry crowd crashed into her car. Armed agents jumped out of the vehicle, yanked her door open, pulled her by the legs out of her car at gunpoint, held her incommunicado for hours, then released her with no charges.
The welfare state is about dignity, equality, and making people not poor, but as @itsafronomics.bsky.social says/cites here, it’s often also an investment that more than pays for itself
Why should you 🫵🏿 care about SNAP? SNAP recipients saw:

- Improved life expectancy
- Lower chance of incarceration
- Lowers chance of poverty
- Lived in better neighborhoods
- Higher human capital

SNAP keeps our neighbors fed, communities safer, and kids educated. Also people are HUNGRY. DUH!
More Insta snaps from the let them eat cake ball at Mar a Lago
Let’s be clear, most EBT users are white. The reason he’s specifically lying about “weaves” and we’ve seen so many AI fakes of Black women ranting about food stamps is they need to make BW the face EBT because they know many Americans don’t care if Black people suffer, and some actually wish for it.
ROB SCHMITT: People are using SNAP benefits to get their nails done, to get their weaves and their hair. This is a really ugly program.

SEN. RON JOHNSON: That program needs to be dramatically reformed.

Reposted by Erol Akçay

🚨NEWS: Two federal judges just ruled the Trump Admin MUST use emergency funds to continue providing SNAP benefits during the shutdown.

They tried to use hungry kids as political pawns instead of coming to the table to reopen the government. Shameful.
Two federal judges require Trump administration tap into emergency funds to partially cover food stamp benefits | CNN Politics
Two federal judges said Friday that the Trump administration must tap into billions of dollars in emergency funds to at least partially cover food stamp benefits for tens of millions of Americans in N...
www.cnn.com
sure, you might not be able to eat or go to the doctor, but check out how nice Trump's new marble shitter is
Thank you Congressman Neguse for laying it plain.

Thanks for the kind words!

Reposted by Erol Akçay

don't have a lot left to say about the Nazi tat discourse other than the general observation that when some say they oppose "moralism" they mean they oppose self-indulgent or otherwise unprincipled appeals to faux-morality and when others say they oppose "moralism" they mean they oppose morals

Aww, shucks! Thanks! Hope you like the paper! ☺️

*partisanship, which we define as how long a given party supporter…

(I have really lost the habit of writing long threads, maybe for the best).

Here’s the paper link once more if you’ve read this far. Comments welcome! /fin

osf.io/preprints/so...
OSF
osf.io

In all, we think that the ecological approach has promise to resolve some long-standing questions and answer some new ones about how political parties compete. It might also, perhaps, lead to some better interventions to make our political systems healthier. 13/

Finally, we consider another classic ecological and political question: can a 3rd party (species) invade a two-party system, perhaps filling a niche in the center? The answer turns out to be no: a centrist 3rd party can’t outcompete the incumbents, b/c the centrist voters remain disengaged. 12/

Paradoxically, though, which we define as how long a given party supporter spends with their current party before reconsidering, increases even as overall voters reconsider their choices more often, because ppl become either non-voters or more habitual voters of one party. 11/

Making voters less loyal causes the centrist voters (that are courted by both parties) to disengage from both parties, which reduces the incentive of the parties to compete for them! Instead, they go for the voters whose support they can keep, which are those on the extremes! 10/

Second, we find that the rate at which voters reconsider their party support has unexpected effects: one might think (and pundits routinely say) that making voters less loyal to their chosen party should incentivize parties to moderate their positions. But we find the opposite! 9/

Interesting results follow from this simple model. First, w/o further assumptions, we dispense with the median voter theorem. Instead, parties need to differentiate from each other in order to co-exist, just like species differentiating in their resource use (“limiting similarity” in Ecology). 8/

Voters, of course, aren’t seeds: they don’t wait around to be picked up by politicians. People decide to support a party by talking to other people (online or IRL), so we model party support as a contagion process depending on the parties’ positions, and find the optimal positions of the parties. 7/

These finches eat seeds and the various species have different sized beaks that make them better at cracking different sized seeds. We propose that we can think of political parties analogously: they take positions in a political space that make them more or less appealing to different voters. 6/

Reposted by Joanna Bryson

We take a fresh approach to the question, taking inspiration from another major branch of science that studies competition: Ecology. Ecologists have been thinking for a long time about how species that rely on similar resources, like Darwin’s finches in the Galapagos, can co-exist. 5/