John Kennedy
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micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis.bsky.social
3.2K followers 3.1K following 1.8K posts

Occasional climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian, science anti-communicator. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it’s a disclaimer. He/him. https://www.jkclimate.fr/ .. more

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Environmental science 43%
Geography 15%
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micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 20h
In a sense, yes, it's just taxonomy but taxonomies reflect some kind of underlying order and two things (or at least two things) underlie a taxonomy of fallacies: logic and human brains.

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 1d
Memo? No, you mo.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/11/09/m...
Memo? No, you mo.
I find the wording of the Paris Agreement rather hard to keep in my head, but I do remember the bit about “in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty” an…
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

Reposted by John Kennedy

mackenwells.bsky.social
Brian Mackenwells @mackenwells.bsky.social · 1d
At some point I played my last game of chasing with my friends in school, without realising it would be our last game.

However, that means one of us is still IT, and doesn't even know. Forever chasing people who don't know they're being chased.

I think about this all the time. Is it me? Am I IT?

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d
Thanks. I daresay my thinking wasn't very clear on this matter. I was thinking of named "fallacies" - e.g. the base rate "fallacy" - and what it means to be one of those rather than just a common or garden failure of logic, reasoning or factualityness...

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d
I shall add it to my reading list. I was wondering, I suppose, how systematic or common an error needed to be to establish itself as a fallacy. I feel like I see new fallacies all the time, but they don't all seem very systematic.

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d
That's the sense in which I'm familiar with them. I wondered at what point a distinct pattern forms from the many ways wrongness can manifest itself.

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
I wish we could ignore Bill Gates on the climate crisis. But he’s a billionaire, so we can’t | George Monbiot
Money talks – and his essay denouncing ‘near-term emissions goals’ at Cop30 mostly argues the case for letting the ultra-rich off the hook
www.theguardian.com

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d
What a strange graph. Remind me what happens to something "per capita" when the capitas are all extinct and therefore tend rapidly to zero?

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d
I feel like with one small change this is perfectly true (though less amusing). It will make a life changing difference that nobody notices. A skill of the artist lies in seeing what needs to be done and then doing it, but the result will be something almost everyone can appreciate.

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d
bsky.app/profile/clim...

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2d
bsky.app/profile/mich...

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
What distinguishes a "fallacy" from simply being wrong?

Reposted by John Kennedy

wmo-global.bsky.social
World Meteorological Organization @wmo-global.bsky.social · 3d
WMO's #StateOfClimate Update 2025.

It combines consolidated data for 2024 with preliminary data for 2025 to where available.

Watch to find 5 key facts from the report, read the full report to find out the latest on all key climate indicators:

🔗 https://bit.ly/4qZR52q

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
Some datasets - like NOAAGlobalTemp - can't currently be updated due to the US government shutdown.

End of thread

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
Antarctic sea ice extent remains low after the maximum of the seasonal cycle in September (3rd lowest on record).

Slow growth of Arctic sea ice in the past few days has left Arctic sea ice extent at a near-record low for the time of year.
Graph showing daily Antarctic sea ice extent through the year from 1978 to 2025. The 1991-2020 average is shown as a thick dark grey line. 2025 is shown as a dark blue line. Every other year is shown as a thin grey line. Data are from JAXA Graph showing daily Arctic sea ice extent through the year from 1978 to 2025. The 1991-2020 average is shown as a thick dark grey line. 2025 is shown as a dark blue line. Every other year is shown as a thin grey line. Data are from JAXA

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
September and October were warm enough to nudge the year-to-date average global temp up after a slow fall from the record warm January. 2025 remains on course to be the second or third warmest year on record though given how close it is, it might end up a split decision.
Graph showing year-to-date average global mean temperature anomalies from 1850 (in varying shades of yellow, green then dark blue with colours getting darker over time) to 2025 (shown in red). Data are from six data sets: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp v6, GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, JRA-3Q and ERA5. The latest month shown is October 2025 though most datasets currently end in September.

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
October continues the run of months that exceed anything seen in the observed record before June 2023. The only exception was February 2025. The warmest, second warmest, and now third warmest Octobers were 2023, 2024 and 2025.
Graph showing the ranking for monthly global mean temperature from six data sets between February 2023 and October 2025. Rankings are shown as coloured squares. Red is warmest on record (for that month and dataset), orange is second warmest, deep yellow (a beautiful shade that I want to call cadmium yellow but it's not toxic) means a top five month and pale yellow (the colour of sun-faded straw) is top ten. Nothing is outside that range. Every single warmest month in all datasets happened since July 2023. Global monthly mean temperature anomalies (relative to the 1981-2010 average) for the period October 1850 to October 2025. Only Octobers are shown. Data are from seven datasets: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp, GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth (the old version and the new high resolution experimental version), JRA-3Q and ERA5.

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
Monthly global temperature anomalies increased in October (in ERA5 at least). Yesterday, I was asked whether the brewing La Nina would lead to a drop in global temperature. It might yet, but global temperature typically lags changes in the tropical Pacific.
Monthly global mean temperature anomalies (relative to the 1981-2010 average) for the period 2014 to 2025. Data from seven datasets.

Reposted by Du Toit

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
Quasi monthly update of the monthly climate dashboard

Update with:
• preliminary October data
• smaller files for faster loading
• bug fix for overlong plot titles

Some things to look out for, a short 🧵

www.jkclimate.fr/MonthlyDashb...
Graph showing the ranking for monthly global mean temperature from six data sets between February 2023 and October 2025. Rankings are shown as coloured squares. Red is warmest on record (for that month and dataset), orange is second warmest, deep yellow (a beautiful shade that I want to call cadmium yellow but it's not toxic) means a top five month and pale yellow (the colour of sun-faded straw) is top ten. Nothing is outside that range. Every single warmest month in all datasets happened since July 2023.

Reposted by Shannon Vallor, John Kennedy

benpatrickwill.bsky.social
Ben Williamson @benpatrickwill.bsky.social · 3d
Bit late to this but it's such a clever piece of AI criticism, developing a literary critique of Sam Altman's auto-metafiction story as a way to explore the grave threats to the "intellectual infrastructure" of the humanities - and HE more broadly - posed by AI lareviewofbooks.org/article/lite...
Literature Is Not a Vibe: On ChatGPT and the Humanities | Los Angeles Review of Books
Rachele Dini discusses OpenAI’s “A Machine-Shaped Hand” and an academic sector in crisis.
lareviewofbooks.org

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3d
That's all I have in my folders

Reposted by John Kennedy

amalasrosa.bsky.social
Amalas @amalasrosa.bsky.social · 4d
Artist be like if I shift this line 0.05 cm to the left, increase overlay by 2%, and move this character’s head slightly by 3° will make a life changing difference that everyone notices

Reposted by John Kennedy

michaelemann.bsky.social
Michael E. Mann @michaelemann.bsky.social · 4d
“Why Bill Gates’ climate memo is being celebrated by skeptics while frustrating scientists" | Article by Ryan M. Katz-Rosene for @us.theconversation.com:

theconversation.com/why-bill-gat...
Why Bill Gates’ climate memo is being celebrated by skeptics while frustrating scientists
Gates recently called for a ‘strategic pivot’ in climate strategy. That appears to have hit a nerve.
theconversation.com

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 4d
Poets. Linocut on recycled paper.
Linocut of W H Auden looking wrinkled as. Black ink on whitish paper. Linocut of Ted Hughes looking intense. Green ink on white paper.

Reposted by John Kennedy, Peter Thorne

wmo-global.bsky.social
World Meteorological Organization @wmo-global.bsky.social · 4d
📣 #StateOfClimate Update 2025 is out now

🌡️ From January to August 2025, average temperature was +1.42°C hotter than pre-industrial level, on track to be second or third hottest year on record.

🔗 Press release: https://bit.ly/3LoawS9

🔗 Full report: https://bit.ly/4qZR52q

Reposted by John Kennedy, Will M. Gervais

devezer.bsky.social
Berna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social · 4d
Reactions to the "debunking" of the original 1956 cognitive dissonance work baffles me. A whole area doesn't die just bec the first work is faulty. That's novelty bias & theory ownership in psych talking. Mendelian genetics did not die when Mendel's original results were found too good to be true.

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 4d
That's wonderful! Thanks. I worried now that I read this and completely forgot it, but I don't think I have.

Reposted by John Kennedy

wmo-global.bsky.social
World Meteorological Organization @wmo-global.bsky.social · 4d
📣 #StateOfClimate Update 2025 is out now!

The update combines consolidated data for the year 2024 with preliminary data for 2025 to date where available.

Press release: https://bit.ly/3LoawS9

Full report: https://bit.ly/4qZR52q

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 4d
Freud certainly would have.

micefearboggis.bsky.social
John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 4d
Same guy. Probably.