Andy Reisinger
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andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger
@andyreisinger.bsky.social
8.2K followers 1.1K following 220 posts

Climate science and policy. Also the occasional photo and random thoughts. Currently serving as Commissioner at He Pou A Rangi, New Zealand Climate Change Commission; former IPCC vice-chair WGIII. Usual disclaimers...

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Environmental science 36%
Economics 29%
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andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Sep 12
What does the @IPCC_CH AR6 say about GHG emission metrics (GWP, GTP, GWP* etc)? This was covered in an in-session workshop at the June #SB58 subsidiary bodies meeting of the @UNFCCC. A nerdy thread on the findings from WGIII from a mitigation perspective🧵1/26 (re-post from twitter, sorry)

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

johnsmillie42.bsky.social
John Smillie @johnsmillie42.bsky.social · 1d
The question is, given that we have an electorate that selected Trump yet again, can we in fact do better? If the answer is no, the future looks pretty bleak.

I'd like to see more effort on "How can we lead the people where we need to go" vs "What approach is inadequate enough to sell?"

2/3

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Juan Cole, Andy Reisinger

ketanjoshi.co
Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · 5d
This isn't a debate about policy design or differing paths to the same goal

One is a plan to allow more emissions (and therefore, more harm / death), and one is a plan to *at least try* to reduce that harm.

The 'debate' is about whether we should let fossil fuels kill people, or try to stop that
a graphic showing the slower emissions reductions cause more greenhouse gas emissions over time

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

marcdaalder.bsky.social
Marc Daalder @marcdaalder.bsky.social · 5d
New from me: Health officials said there was ‘no evidence base’ about the likely impacts of the Government’s decision to ban puberty blockers for transgender youth.
newsroom.co.nz/2025/12/22/c...
Cabinet overrode health advice in decision to ban puberty blockers
Health officials said there was 'no evidence base' about the likely impacts of the Government's decision to ban puberty blockers for transgender youth.
newsroom.co.nz

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · 23d
Clear case for a capitol gains tax
jakemgrumbach.bsky.social Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 23d
After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts

www.nber.org/papers/w34524

via @florianederer.bsky.social
"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou WORKING PAPER 34524 DOI 10.3386/w34524 ISSUE DATE November 2025 Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms. 令 1 1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Year Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.

Reposted by Archon Fung, Richard S.J. Tol, Nicholas A. Christakis , and 22 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 23d
After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts

www.nber.org/papers/w34524

via @florianederer.bsky.social
"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou WORKING PAPER 34524 DOI 10.3386/w34524 ISSUE DATE November 2025 Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms. 令 1 1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Year Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.

Reposted by Andréas Nilsson, Andy Reisinger, Prakash Kashwan

akshatrathi.bsky.social
Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 25d
The Indian state of Rajasthan produces more solar than any other. It has rejected a 3.2 GW coal power plant, because the bids to build it were more expensive than bundling renewables with batteries.

🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
India’s Desert State Reignites Coal-Fired Power Debate
The competitive cost of batteries is making clean energy a viable alternative to coal in parts of the country.
www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

davidrvetter.bsky.social
Dave Vetter @davidrvetter.bsky.social · 26d
To be clear: the specific intention behind the state naming and singling out journalists it doesn't like is to put those journalists in danger.

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · 28d
Social media feeds can be tuned to increase or decrease political polarisation.

Nice demonstration by @tiziano.bsky.social and colleagues
Reranking partisan animosity in algorithmic social media feeds alters affective polarization
Today, social media platforms hold the sole power to study the effects of feed-ranking algorithms. We developed a platform-independent method that reranks participants’ feeds in real time and used thi...
www.science.org

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

paulbernal.bsky.social
Paul Bernal @paulbernal.bsky.social · Nov 25
Y’know, believing there’s a kind of racism that isn’t hurtful or insulting is itself quite revealing.

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

emilypont.bsky.social
Emily Pontecorvo @emilypont.bsky.social · Nov 24
UN sec. gen. Antonio Guterres got it wrong when he said "Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable." Surpassing 1.5 may be inevitable, but the "temporary" part, not so much. My Q&A w/ an expert on why COPs need to confront this. heatmap.news/climate/cop-...
The Next COP Needs to Confront ‘Overshoot’
The Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is now all but impossible. Limiting — and eventually reversing — the damage will take some thought.
heatmap.news

Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Richard S.J. Tol, Andrew Scott , and 2 more

bestforbritain.org
Best for Britain @bestforbritain.org · Nov 24
Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

It was years ago.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

Not in a hurtful way.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

Not with intent.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

Not genuine abuse.

😮🫣😬😱 ~AA

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

swp-berlin.org
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · Nov 24
Die globale Erwärmung könnte bis Anfang der 2030er Jahre auf über 1,5 °C steigen. Die Begrenzung von Ausmaß & Dauer des »Overshoot« stellt die Klimapolitik vor neue Herausforderungen, so Oliver Geden @swp-europe.bsky.social & @andyreisinger.bsky.social in: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Overshoot: Rückkehr zu 1,5 °C erfordert netto-negative Emissionsziele
Die globale Erwärmung wird voraussichtlich bis Anfang der 2030er Jahre über 1,5 °C steigen. Eine Rückkehr zu 1,5 °C vor Ende des 21....
www.swp-berlin.org

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Nov 24
As we say in the article: "A world that returns to global warming of 1.5°C will be a significantly altered and more damaged world than if this level of warming had never been exceeded."

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Andy Reisinger

dralaaclimate.bsky.social
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · Nov 21
As the final text is being hammered out here in Belém for #COP30, the issue of fossil fuel phase-out is on the table again.

Looking at the actual numbers from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C assessed scenarios to decompose reduced fossil fuel output vs. carbon capture and storage - CCS (i.e. abatement)

1/3
.

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

pubaffairsbruxelles.eu
PubAffairs EU Debates, News & Opinions 🇪🇺 @pubaffairsbruxelles.eu · Nov 20
[Featured] #Climate - Overshoot: Returning to 1.5°C requires net-negative emissions targets, by Oliver Geden & @andyreisinger.bsky.social | @swp-berlin.org

www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...
Overshoot: Returning to 1.5°C Requires Net-negative Emissions Targets - PubAffairs Bruxelles
Global warming is set to rise above 1.5°C by the early 2030s. Returning to 1.5°C before the end of the 21st century would not prevent all harms resulting from a period of excess temperatures, but it w...
www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Nov 19
Overshoot: returning to 1.5°C requires net-negative emissions targets. @swp-berlin.org policy brief with Oliver Geden.

Keeping 1.5 alive will require reframing “net-zero” as transitional stage towards net-negative GHG emissions rather than an endpoint, and policy instruments able to deliver this.
Overshoot: Returning to 1.5°C Requires Net-negative Emissions Targets
Global warming is set to rise above 1.5°C by the early 2030s. Returning to 1.5°C before the end of the 21st century would not prevent all harms...
www.swp-berlin.org

Reposted by Sanford F. Schram, Geoff Pearson, Andy Reisinger , and 1 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Nov 18
MBS claims the murder of Khashoggi was "a huge mistake and we're our doing our best that this doesn't happen again."

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Timothy Snyder, Michael E. Mann , and 53 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Nov 18
Trump suggests Khashoggi had it coming: "You're mentioning someone that was extremely controversial. A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking about. Whether you like him or didn't like him, things happen. But he knew nothing about it. You don't have to embarrass our guest."

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Richard Betts

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Nov 8
The sad thing is, I remember sketching changes in temperature and heavy precip distributions in exactly this way in the early 2000s, just to now watch it play out.

The animation very much reminds me of an angry beast pulling on its chains; and they are tearing loose...
lymecfs.bsky.social Sebastiaan Deetman @lymecfs.bsky.social · Nov 7
Exactly! Which makes the real climate shift way scarier. Like shown by the data from svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5452/

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Martin Paul Eve, Cathy N. Davidson , and 2 more

phileil.bsky.social
Philip Eil @phileil.bsky.social · Nov 7
Quite a headline.
Europeans recognize Zohran Mamdani’s supposedly radical policies as ‘normal’
Critics of New York City’s mayor-elect have said his pledges of free bus service and universal childcare are unrealistic, but in Europe it’s a given
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Mattias Hallquist, Andy Reisinger

lymecfs.bsky.social
Sebastiaan Deetman @lymecfs.bsky.social · Nov 7
Exactly! Which makes the real climate shift way scarier. Like shown by the data from svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5452/

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Nov 7
AI hallucinates because it’s trained to fake answers it doesn’t know. Teaching chatbots to say “I don’t know” could curb hallucinations. It could also break AI’s business model.
AI hallucinates because it’s trained to fake answers it doesn’t know
Teaching chatbots to say “I don’t know” could curb hallucinations. It could also break AI’s business model
www.science.org

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

enb.iisd.org
Earth Negotiations Bulletin @enb.iisd.org · Oct 31
After intensive negotiations at #IPCC63, the #IPCC achieved consensus on the outline of its Methodology Report

However, yet again the Panel was unable to agree on a workplan for the seventh assessment cycle

Read ➡️ enb.iisd.org/intergovernm...

#climate #climatechange #AR7
Highlights and images for 30 October 2025
enb.iisd.org

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Oct 30
Chimpanzees rationally revise their beliefs. Would be interesting to do a double blind experiment with humans.
Chimpanzees rationally revise their beliefs
The selective revision of beliefs in light of new evidence has been considered one of the hallmarks of human-level rationality. However, tests of this ability in other species are lacking. We examined...
www.science.org

Reposted by Peter Thorne

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Oct 30
Global methane action pays for itself at least six times over

And for fans of GHG metrics: "[...] Lastly, although the best basis for comparing methane and CO2 abatement should be relative social costs, we have found that the convention of using GWP100 is a reasonable approximation."
Global methane action pays for itself at least six times over
We provide a comprehensive assessment of the economic benefits and costs of global methane emissions abatement, anchored on the Global Methane Pledge. We use an integrated assessment model to estimate...
www.science.org

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Oct 30
Current rate of sea level rise is 4.7mm/year (average over past 10 years), more than twice the 20th century average rise.

Half a metre by 2100 best estimate if Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal is met - much more if not.
Future Sea-level Rise Is Certain, but the Amount and Speed Are Uncertain
The WMO co-sponsored World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)1 is at the forefront of sea-level change research. At the request of WMO Members and other United Nations entities, WCRP has developed a st...
wmo.int

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Juan Cole, Smith , and 4 more

melodyschreiber.com
Melody Schreiber @melodyschreiber.com · Oct 27
NEW: The entire staff supporting ACIP was laid off, and most working groups haven't met in months.

That means the US may not make routine vaccine recommendations for more than half of children in 2026, and it could halt new vaccines in the pipeline. My latest:
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Threat to US vaccines as CDC staff supporting key advisory panel laid off
Critics say scientists ‘held hostage’ by RFK Jr as changes mean vaccine development and guidance in peril
www.theguardian.com

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Oct 17
Sure, but now they will spend the next 10 years arguing over what a better policy looks like, and all the while delay domestic action by pointing to "on-going global discussions" and express their concern that domestic action could create a double burden. It is bad.

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Oct 17
Does anybody know where to find a list of how individual countries voted?

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

robinsonmeyer.bsky.social
Robinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · Oct 17
Trump admin: Neoliberalism has failed. We must defend American workers by imposing much higher burdens on international trade

International Maritime Organization: You will love our new fee scheme to encourage net-zero global shipping, then

Trump: NOT LIKE THAT heatmap.news/climate-tech...
Trump Just Torpedoed Investors’ Big Bets on Decarbonizing Shipping
The delayed vote on a net-zero standard for the International Maritime Organization throws some of the industry’s grandest plans into chaos.
heatmap.news