Andy Reisinger
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andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger
@andyreisinger.bsky.social
8.3K followers 1.1K following 230 posts

Climate science and policy. Also the occasional photo and random thoughts. Currently serving as Commissioner at He Pou A Rangi, New Zealand Climate Change Commission; former IPCC vice-chair WGIII. Usual disclaimers...

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Environmental science 36%
Economics 29%
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andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Sep 12
What does the @IPCC_CH AR6 say about GHG emission metrics (GWP, GTP, GWP* etc)? This was covered in an in-session workshop at the June #SB58 subsidiary bodies meeting of the @UNFCCC. A nerdy thread on the findings from WGIII from a mitigation perspective🧵1/26 (re-post from twitter, sorry)

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

carlschleussner.bsky.social
Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 12d
How should climate science and policy respond to a potential exceedance of 1.5°C? We provide our perspective on this in a new @Nature comment 🔗 nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00247-y led by Gaurav Ganti with Sabine Fuss, @joerirogelj.bsky.social, @setupelz.bsky.social & Keywan Riahi 1/
Exceeding 1.5 °C requires rethinking accountability in climate policy
A scientific foundation is required to establish nations’ responsibilities in a hotter ‘overshoot’ world.
nature.com

Reposted by Valerie M. Delmotte, Sonia I. Seneviratne, John Kennedy , and 8 more

peterthorne.bsky.social
Peter Thorne @peterthorne.bsky.social · 12d
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...
essd.copernicus.org

Reposted by Kim L. Scheppele, Jan W. Mueller, Brian A. Nosek , and 29 more

jeffrueter.bsky.social
Jeff Rueter @jeffrueter.bsky.social · 16d
Kare 11 local news just read, in full, this statement from Michael and Susan Pretti, the parents of Alex Pretti.

"Please get the truth out about our son."
Statement from Michael and Susan Pretti Parents of Alex Jeffrey Pretti “We are heartbroken but also very angry. Alex was a kindhearted soul who cared deeply for his family and friends and also the American veterans whom he cared for as an ICU nurse at the Minneapolis VA hospital. Alex wanted to make a difference in this world. Unfortunately, he will not be with us to see his impact. I do not throw around the ‘hero’ term lightly. However, his last thought and act was to protect a woman. The sickening lies told about our son by the administration are reprehensible and disgusting. Alex is clearly not holding a gun when attacked by Trump’s murdering and cowardly ICE thugs. He had his phone in his right hand and his empty left hand is raised above his head while trying to protect the woman ICE just pushed down, all while being pepper sprayed. Please get the truth out about our son. He was a good man. Thank you.

Reposted by Timothy Snyder, Kim L. Scheppele, Elizabeth Saunders , and 9 more

gregsargent.bsky.social
Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 16d
They are telling us in unequivocal terms that if you show solidarity with immigrants who are in the literal crosshairs of Trump/MAGA, you're risking a death sentence.

newrepublic.com/article/2055...

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · 17d
One of the more absurd ideas.

People tried to appease Hitler by letting him annex various countries in exchange for European peace. Which didn't go great I understand.

Reposted by Pieter Vantieghem

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · 17d
"So here’s a simple rule for Trump and his friends: if you don’t want to be called Nazis, stop hiring Nazis, quoting Nazis and posting Nazi imagery."
The Trump administration has a Nazi problem | Mehdi Hasan
Think I’m exaggerating? Consider the copious amounts of evidence
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Peter Thorne, Jonas R. Kunst , and 5 more

profsanderlinden.bsky.social
Sander van der Linden @profsanderlinden.bsky.social · 18d
We have a new paper in Science today on how malicious AI swarms can threaten democracy.

AI systems can already coordinate autonomously, infiltrate communities, and fabricate social consensus.

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Led by @kunstjonas.bsky.social & @daniel-thilo.bsky.social!

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

enikofox.com
Eniko Fox @enikofox.com · 22d
we live in a sick society that thinks preventing problems is a waste of time and effort and hey, guess why everything sucks now

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

mama-melancholia.bsky.social
mama.melancholia @mama-melancholia.bsky.social · 25d
Kia ora @metservice.com

Please stop using X. 🙏🏼
I’m pretty sure you don’t really want to be supporting such an entity anymore.

#nzpol

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Jan 9
"Assessing equivalence based on avoided economic damages suggests that about 87 temporary CO2 removals over a period of 30 years are needed to offset 1 t of methane." www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Could be thought of as an application of GWP100 but scaled to apply within the first 30 years only.
Temperature effect of emission of 1t of methane, and of removing 80t of carbon dioxide for 30 years. The net effect of both actions on temperature is about neutral for the first 10 years, the cooling up to 30 years, and then slight warming beyond 30 years.

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Cathy N. Davidson, Beatriz Gallardo Paúls , and 3 more

cnbc.com
CNBC @cnbc.com · Jan 2
Musk's Grok AI bot is fixing safeguard 'lapses' after posting of sexualized images of children
Musk's Grok AI bot is fixing safeguard 'lapses' after posting of sexualized images of children
Users on X raised concerns over explicit content of minors being generated using Musk's Grok tool.
cnb.cx

Reposted by Andy Reisinger, Nathan P. Kalmoe

neillewisjr.bsky.social
Neil Lewis, Jr. @neillewisjr.bsky.social · Dec 27

www.sup.org/books/sociol...

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

johnsmillie42.bsky.social
John Smillie @johnsmillie42.bsky.social · Dec 25
The question is, given that we have an electorate that selected Trump yet again, can we in fact do better? If the answer is no, the future looks pretty bleak.

I'd like to see more effort on "How can we lead the people where we need to go" vs "What approach is inadequate enough to sell?"

2/3

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Juan Cole, Andy Reisinger

ketanjoshi.co
Ketan Joshi @ketanjoshi.co · Dec 21
This isn't a debate about policy design or differing paths to the same goal

One is a plan to allow more emissions (and therefore, more harm / death), and one is a plan to *at least try* to reduce that harm.

The 'debate' is about whether we should let fossil fuels kill people, or try to stop that
a graphic showing the slower emissions reductions cause more greenhouse gas emissions over time

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

marcdaalder.bsky.social
Marc Daalder @marcdaalder.bsky.social · Dec 21
New from me: Health officials said there was ‘no evidence base’ about the likely impacts of the Government’s decision to ban puberty blockers for transgender youth.
newsroom.co.nz/2025/12/22/c...
Cabinet overrode health advice in decision to ban puberty blockers
Health officials said there was 'no evidence base' about the likely impacts of the Government's decision to ban puberty blockers for transgender youth.
newsroom.co.nz

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Dec 3
Clear case for a capitol gains tax
jakemgrumbach.bsky.social Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · Dec 3
After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts

www.nber.org/papers/w34524

via @florianederer.bsky.social
"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou WORKING PAPER 34524 DOI 10.3386/w34524 ISSUE DATE November 2025 Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms. 令 1 1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Year Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.

Reposted by Archon Fung, Richard S.J. Tol, Nicholas A. Christakis , and 22 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · Dec 3
After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts

www.nber.org/papers/w34524

via @florianederer.bsky.social
"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou WORKING PAPER 34524 DOI 10.3386/w34524 ISSUE DATE November 2025 Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms. 令 1 1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Year Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.

Reposted by Andréas Nilsson, Andy Reisinger, Prakash Kashwan

akshatrathi.bsky.social
Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · Dec 1
The Indian state of Rajasthan produces more solar than any other. It has rejected a 3.2 GW coal power plant, because the bids to build it were more expensive than bundling renewables with batteries.

🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
India’s Desert State Reignites Coal-Fired Power Debate
The competitive cost of batteries is making clean energy a viable alternative to coal in parts of the country.
www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

davidrvetter.bsky.social
Dave Vetter @davidrvetter.bsky.social · Nov 30
To be clear: the specific intention behind the state naming and singling out journalists it doesn't like is to put those journalists in danger.

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Nov 28
Social media feeds can be tuned to increase or decrease political polarisation.

Nice demonstration by @tiziano.bsky.social and colleagues
Reranking partisan animosity in algorithmic social media feeds alters affective polarization
Today, social media platforms hold the sole power to study the effects of feed-ranking algorithms. We developed a platform-independent method that reranks participants’ feeds in real time and used thi...
www.science.org

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

paulbernal.bsky.social
Paul Bernal @paulbernal.bsky.social · Nov 25
Y’know, believing there’s a kind of racism that isn’t hurtful or insulting is itself quite revealing.

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

emilypont.bsky.social
Emily Pontecorvo @emilypont.bsky.social · Nov 24
UN sec. gen. Antonio Guterres got it wrong when he said "Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable." Surpassing 1.5 may be inevitable, but the "temporary" part, not so much. My Q&A w/ an expert on why COPs need to confront this. heatmap.news/climate/cop-...
The Next COP Needs to Confront ‘Overshoot’
The Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is now all but impossible. Limiting — and eventually reversing — the damage will take some thought.
heatmap.news

Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Richard S.J. Tol, Andrew Scott , and 2 more

bestforbritain.org
Best for Britain @bestforbritain.org · Nov 24
Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

It was years ago.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

Not in a hurtful way.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

Not with intent.

Did you ever racially abuse fellow pupils?

Not genuine abuse.

😮🫣😬😱 ~AA

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

swp-berlin.org
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · Nov 24
Die globale Erwärmung könnte bis Anfang der 2030er Jahre auf über 1,5 °C steigen. Die Begrenzung von Ausmaß & Dauer des »Overshoot« stellt die Klimapolitik vor neue Herausforderungen, so Oliver Geden @swp-europe.bsky.social & @andyreisinger.bsky.social in: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Overshoot: Rückkehr zu 1,5 °C erfordert netto-negative Emissionsziele
Die globale Erwärmung wird voraussichtlich bis Anfang der 2030er Jahre über 1,5 °C steigen. Eine Rückkehr zu 1,5 °C vor Ende des 21....
www.swp-berlin.org

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Nov 24
As we say in the article: "A world that returns to global warming of 1.5°C will be a significantly altered and more damaged world than if this level of warming had never been exceeded."

Reposted by Peter Thorne, Andy Reisinger

dralaaclimate.bsky.social
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · Nov 21
As the final text is being hammered out here in Belém for #COP30, the issue of fossil fuel phase-out is on the table again.

Looking at the actual numbers from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C assessed scenarios to decompose reduced fossil fuel output vs. carbon capture and storage - CCS (i.e. abatement)

1/3
.

Reposted by Andy Reisinger

pubaffairsbruxelles.eu
PubAffairs EU Debates, News & Opinions 🇪🇺 @pubaffairsbruxelles.eu · Nov 20
[Featured] #Climate - Overshoot: Returning to 1.5°C requires net-negative emissions targets, by Oliver Geden & @andyreisinger.bsky.social | @swp-berlin.org

www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...
Overshoot: Returning to 1.5°C Requires Net-negative Emissions Targets - PubAffairs Bruxelles
Global warming is set to rise above 1.5°C by the early 2030s. Returning to 1.5°C before the end of the 21st century would not prevent all harms resulting from a period of excess temperatures, but it w...
www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu

andyreisinger.bsky.social
Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · Nov 19
Overshoot: returning to 1.5°C requires net-negative emissions targets. @swp-berlin.org policy brief with Oliver Geden.

Keeping 1.5 alive will require reframing “net-zero” as transitional stage towards net-negative GHG emissions rather than an endpoint, and policy instruments able to deliver this.
Overshoot: Returning to 1.5°C Requires Net-negative Emissions Targets
Global warming is set to rise above 1.5°C by the early 2030s. Returning to 1.5°C before the end of the 21st century would not prevent all harms...
www.swp-berlin.org

Reposted by Sanford F. Schram, Geoff Pearson, Andy Reisinger , and 1 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Nov 18
MBS claims the murder of Khashoggi was "a huge mistake and we're our doing our best that this doesn't happen again."

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Timothy Snyder, Michael E. Mann , and 53 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Nov 18
Trump suggests Khashoggi had it coming: "You're mentioning someone that was extremely controversial. A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking about. Whether you like him or didn't like him, things happen. But he knew nothing about it. You don't have to embarrass our guest."