Adam Bonica

@adambonica.bsky.social

26K followers 1.2K following 730 posts

Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com .. more

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Mar 11

🚨 New paper (with Kasey Rhee & Nico Studen). We use a new within-precinct design to isolate how ideology affects vote choice holding turnout fixed, analyzing 3.4M precinct observations across state & fed elections (2016-2022).

tldr: Ideological moderation affects vote shares, but not by much. 🧵⬇️

The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections

Most research on the electoral penalty of candidate ideology relies on betweendistrict or longitudinal comparisons, which are confounded by turnout and ballot c

papers.ssrn.com

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 13h

I struggle to understand people who hoard power just to refuse to ever use it.

Reposted by Adam Bonica

Noah Berlatsky @nberlat.bsky.social · 1d

this seems like a relevant post re golden's resignation. www.everythingishorrible.net/p/if-moderat...

If Moderates Overperform, How Do You Explain Sinema?

The NYT editorial board is full of shit.

www.everythingishorrible.net

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Adam Bonica

Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 2d

SNAP benefits are currently being held hostage by the Trump administration and their fate now lies with the Supreme Court.

Beneath the legal arguments are real people who simply need food—a former federal worker, a single mother of 4, a disabled man. I spoke to them. Here are their stories:

The voices of SNAP

Recipients have become political pawns. They explained, in their own words, what Trump withholding funds has been like.

www.thehandbasket.co

Reposted by Adam Bonica

Jenny Shen @jennyqshen.bsky.social · 3d

The next Democratic president can fix the evergreen government shutdown crisis: "It’s a systematic disadvantage they must fix when they have the power to do so ... No negotiation. No compromise. Just restore the system that worked for a century."

Read: data4democracy.substack.com/p/why-americ...

An excerpt from Adam Bonica's Substack: On Data and Democracy:

The Political Reality: A One-Sided Problem

Congressional leaders might insist they need shutdowns as leverage—that without this threat, presidents won’t come to the table. This gets the recent history backwards. Nearly every shutdown in the past three decades stemmed from Congress’ own internal gridlock, its inability to send any bill to the president’s desk. These weren’t battles between Congress and the White House. They were congressional Republicans holding the government hostage to extract concessions they couldn’t win through normal legislation.

The current rules aren’t neutral. They’re a structural gift to the party that wants government to do less. Republicans keep their priorities funded during shutdowns while Democratic priorities—environmental protection, workplace safety, food assistance—get decimated. This asymmetry explains why Republicans consistently trigger these crises while Democrats scramble to end them. When the rules reward your side for creating chaos, why would you want to change them?

Democrats need to recognize this isn’t a shared problem requiring bipartisan solutions. It’s a systematic disadvantage they must fix when they have the power to do so. The next Democratic president should issue the corrective memo. No negotiation. No compromise. Just restore the system that worked for a century.

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 3d

It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.

Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable

Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t

A horizontal stacked bar chart titled “Favorability – 2026 2nd Congressional District Candidates – CD2 Residents – October 2025.” It displays ratings for Paul LePage, Matthew Dunlap, and Jared Golden. LePage is 41 percent favorable, 6 percent neutral, 51 percent unfavorable, and 3 percent “don’t know enough.” Dunlap is 18 percent favorable, 23 percent neutral, 16 percent unfavorable, and 44 percent “don’t know enough.” Golden is 16 percent favorable, 40 percent neutral, 41 percent unfavorable, and 3 percent “don’t know enough.”

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1896&context=survey_center_polls

A four-panel bar chart titled “Does Golden Deserve to Be Re-elected – By Party ID – October 2025.”
Overall: 57 percent say he does not deserve reelection, 26 percent say he does, 16 percent don’t know.
Among Democrats: 36 percent say he doesn’t deserve reelection, 51 percent say he does.
Independents: 66 percent say he doesn’t, 27 percent say he does.
Republicans: 75 percent say he doesn’t, 5 percent say he does.

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 3d

Perhaps it would by the current Supreme Court. But at least then they would take ownership of the decision. And that wouldn’t make it “correct.” It would be a fascinating (and telling) decision, given this Court’s extraordinary deference to Trump’s claims of unilateral spending authority.

Reposted by Steven S. Smith, Benjamin Braun, Sebastian Karcher , and 1 more Steven S. Smith, Benjamin Braun, Sebastian Karcher, William Myers

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 3d

Did you know gov shutdowns aren’t in the Constitution, any law, or Court ruling?
They exist because of a 1980 OLC memo—a lawyer’s opinion that everyone just went along with. Before 1980, funding gaps didn’t cause shutdowns.

What one memo created, another can undo. How the next D admin can undo it:

Why America’s Government Shutdowns Exist and How to End Them

One Legal Memo Created The Shutdown Era. Another Can End It.

open.substack.com

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 4d

In light of recent events, it seems like a good time to reup this.

“The way out isn't about left versus right; it's about clean versus corrupt, reform versus a rigged system, the people versus oligarchs.”

The Democrats' Path Forward: Become the Anti-Corruption Party

But to reform the system they first need to reform the Democratic Party.

open.substack.com

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Nicholas A. Christakis, A. E. Dessler , and 8 more Anna O. Law, Nicholas A. Christakis, A. E. Dessler, Guy Grossman, Markus Wagner, Stacy D. VanDeveer, Jason Lyall, Victor Pickard, Anna Grzymała-Busse, Leah Stokes, Simon Lester

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 5d

I’ll keep pushing this line of analysis because I’m increasingly convinced the clearest path out of this mess is for Dems to adopt a relentless anti-corruption, anti-inequality, anti-oligarchy, pro-democracy platform. The Dem leadership hasn’t realized it yet, but they’re now a reform party.

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 5d

Thank you @adamkinzinger.substack.com for your inspiring keynote at Stanford's Democracy Day. Your courage was on full display, your advice for the students was wonderful, and we're glad to have you as part of the pro-democracy movement.

'We’re here to create a democracy together': Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger gives keynote speech at Democracy Day

Democracy Day keynote speaker and former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger spoke to students about extremism, bipartisanship, Jan. 6 and civic engagement in his address.

stanforddaily.com

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 5d

So proud of the students who led Stanford's 5th Democracy Day yesterday.

"Where democracy sprouts, university students are seldom far from its source. Search for democracy’s turning points—from Prague to Seoul, from Soweto to Santiago—and the pattern repeats: students move first, nations follow."

From the Community | Stanford's place in a global tradition of student democratic participation

Political science professor Adam Bonica writes about the importance of Democracy Day and its place in history of student protests.

stanforddaily.com

Reposted by Adam Bonica

David Sirota @davidsirota.com · 6d

The reason oligarchs & the political/media class they own had a months-long elite freakout over @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is not because of any one of his policy proposals - but because his win would mean they no longer get to buy every election and control every political outcome.

Pass it on.

Who’s Afraid Of Zohran Mamdani?

The mayoral candidate defeated the master plan for the first time ever — and that’s prompted an elite panic about who gets to control political outcomes.

www.levernews.com

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 11d

Fantastic article explaining why candidates can no longer outrun their party.

@leedrutman.bsky.social is absolutely right, electoral reform is needed to break the two party doom loop and he has a clear plan. In the short run, Dems can break out of the left-right frame by running on anti-corruption.

Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 12d

I jump into the moderation debate. I agree with @adambonica.bsky.social and @gelliottmorris.com on the methodology, but I want to draw attention to a bigger issue. The collapse of candidate effects generally.
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 11d

This context likely explains why the report's polling:

1. Didn't ask a single question about campaign finance reform or corruption.

2. Did ask about taxing the rich, but framed it using the obscure "stepped-up basis,” a loophole well-known to these specific donors, but not to 99.9% of the public.

Reposted by David C. Kimball

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 11d

It’s a sign of the times that the people who funded the WelcomePAC report that’s telling Democrats they are “out of touch” with ordinary Americans are mostly billionaires, hedge fund managers, VCs, and corporate execs.

A horizontal bar chart titled “WelcomePAC Funding Sources” showing $11.29M in total funding from FEC data. The largest share comes from “Billionaires & Heirs” at $6.01M, represented by a long purple bar. Next is “Hedge Funds/VC/Private Equity” at $2.50M, also in purple. “Corporate Executives” show $0.30M and “Corporate Entity” $0.25M, each with very small purple bars. “Americans Together” is listed at $1.02M with an orange bar, and “Other” is $1.22M with a gray bar. The graphic emphasizes that most funding—over half—comes from billionaires and heirs, with additional significant contributions from finance and private equity. Source: Federal Election Commission.

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Adam Bonica, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Perry Bacon @perrybaconjr.bsky.social · 11d

“Deciding to Win' also displays little awareness of what winning elections is for. There is an obvious reason why the Democratic Party ought not abandon its commitment to preventing the climate crisis," writes @davekarpf.bsky.social. Excellent piece. newrepublic.com/article/2023...

Why Centrist Democrats Keep Being Wrong About Elections

A new 60-page report insists the party is too radical. But the problem isn’t the party platform. The problem is the broader environment.

newrepublic.com

Reposted by Robert W. Wallace, Adam Bonica

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12d

if democrats want to win in places like ohio, iowa, and texas, they need to run on new dimensions of conflict that break right-leaning voters out of their usual patterns

Reposted by Kim L. Scheppele, Scott L. Greer, Adam Bonica , and 3 more Kim L. Scheppele, Scott L. Greer, Adam Bonica, Zen Faulkes, Blair Fix, Michael Evans

Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 12d

Reposted by Rosemary A. Joyce, Adam Bonica

Katelyn Burns @katelynburns.com · 12d

For my newsletter, I took a deeper look at the electoral record of WelcomePAC, a centrist group that produced that 352 page document advising Democrats to moderate once again.

Turns out the campaigns they work for aren't winning. www.burnsnotice.com/fire-the-con...

Fire The Consultants

The Democratic party must move on from the same old stale, carefully poll-tested politics and get back to solving voters' problems. There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Democra...

www.burnsnotice.com

Reposted by Adam Bonica

Tressie McMillan Cottom @tressiemcphd.bsky.social · 12d

If you are reading this piece today, you may be interested to know that I found Adam Bonica on moderate candidates compelling. Ht @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social

data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 13d

Background on the GOP Biden probe: Trump promoted a conspiracy theory that Biden had died and was replaced by a *literal robot clone.* Days later, he ordered a federal investigation into Biden’s “autopen.” That’s the actual basis for the GOP’s claims and probably ought to be part of the reporting.

Screenshot of a New York Times article excerpt. Text reads: ‘In an executive order, Mr. Trump put the power and resources of the federal government to work examining whether some of Mr. Biden’s presidential actions were legally invalid because his aides had enacted those policies without his knowledge. The executive order came after Mr. Trump shared a social media post over the weekend that claimed Mr. Biden had been “executed in 2020” and replaced by a robotic clone, following a pattern of suggestions by the president and his allies that Mr. Biden was a mortally incapacitated.’ The phrases ‘executed in 2020’ and ‘replaced by a robotic clone’ are highlighted in blue, indicating user selection.

Reposted by Samuel L. Perry, David Rothschild, Adam Bonica , and 2 more Samuel L. Perry, David Rothschild, Adam Bonica, Greg Linden, Nathan P. Kalmoe

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 13d

The GOP has been extremely effective at shaping perceptions of the Democrats, claiming they support policy positions they don't actually support

If your strategy, as a Dem, for winning in 2028 *STARTS* by buying their spin and lies, then you've already lost
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strate...

The Strategist’s Fallacy in American politics

The average American voter does not think about politics the way elite strategists and pundits do

www.gelliottmorris.com

Reposted by Will Jennings, Efrén O. Pérez, Adam Bonica

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 14d

My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 14d

Link to analysis by Americans for Tax Fairness: americansfortaxfairness.org/billionaire-...

Billionaire Wealth Tops $8 Trillion Amid Federal Shutdown - Americans For Tax Fairness

Republican Tax Cuts Boost Their Fortunes To Dizzying Heights Even As Workers Lose Paychecks & Families Are Denied Services oday, as the government shutdown drags on, America’s 916 billionaires have re...

americansfortaxfairness.org

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 14d

New analysis from Americans for Tax Fairness: US Billionaires added $5.1 trillion to their fortunes since 2017. To put that in perspective, if that money went to the American people instead, every household would get $37,800.

“Americans for Tax Fairness” shows the explosive growth in billionaire wealth in the United States from December 30, 2017, to October 27, 2025. It reports that the number of billionaires increased from 551 to 916, and their total wealth grew from $2.9 trillion to $8.0 trillion—an increase of $5.1 trillion or 176%. The table lists the top 20 billionaires, including Elon Musk, Larry Ellison, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, and others, with each person’s net worth in 2017, their net worth in 2025, and the dollar and percentage growth over the period. Elon Musk’s wealth grew the most in dollar terms (from $20 billion to $490 billion, a 2,305% increase). At the bottom, a highlighted row shows the top 20 billionaires gained $2.45 trillion (a 286.6% increase), while all other billionaires combined gained $2.7 trillion (a 133.2% increase).

Reposted by Adam Bonica

Derek Willis @dwillis.bsky.social · 16d

Abigail Spanberger's #VAGOV campaign says this is what the polling is like in an SMS fundraising message:

This is what @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social says the polling is like:

But fundraising requires a narrative, I guess.

A line chart from Abigail Spanberger's campaign showing a tightening race between June and October, with opponent Winsome Earle-Sears going from 34% to 45% support. Spanberger's under 50%.

A screenshot of a DecisionDesk HQ polling average in the same race showing Spanberger above 50% and Earle-Sears at 43%. It also shows Earle-Sears always above 35% since June.

Reposted by Adam Bonica

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 16d

this article will publish tomorrow at 7:30 AM www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-new-yo...

The New York Times makes several crucial errors in its analysis of the electoral value of moderation | Weekly roundup for October 26, 2025

The paper's arguments hinge on a statistical flaw, and it hold critics to a double-standard. Plus: Trump's nominees, and the Republicans' lost lead on economics

www.gelliottmorris.com

Reposted by Adam Bonica

David Sirota @davidsirota.com · 16d

The NYT editorial board told Democrats that they must discard populism be more “centrist” to win. Stanford’s @adambonica.bsky.social ran the data that the NYT used and shows that the entire premise is false.

The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion

After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.

open.substack.com

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 17d

That’s why if you flip the comparison and instead pit progressives against non-progressives, you see the same ‘advantage’ as when you pit moderates against non-moderates.

A horizontal bar chart titled “The ‘Progressive Advantage’ Using the Same Method” shows two bars comparing electoral overperformance relative to presidential vote share. The subtitle explains that the NYTimes method groups candidates with no PAC support into the “non-progressive” category, which lowers their average performance.
• The top bar, labeled Progressive, extends to the right in purple, indicating +1.4 percentage points, showing overperformance.
• The bottom bar, labeled Non-Progressive, extends slightly to the left in gold, indicating –0.4 percentage points, showing underperformance.
• The x-axis is labeled “Percentage Point Overperformance vs. Presidential Vote” and ranges from –2% to +2%.
• The chart visually demonstrates that when applying the same NYTimes coding logic, “progressives” appear to perform better than “non-progressives,” underscoring the flaw in their categorization approach.

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 17d

You can see what’s happening in this one chart.

The NYT's ‘Non-Moderate' group (bracketed on the right) is created by combining the ‘Funded Non-Moderate' (+0.4) and 'No PAC Funding' (-1.9) bars.

That massive -1.9 from non-competitive races is what's doing all the work, not moderation.

Horizontal bar chart titled “The NYT’s ‘Non-Moderate’ Group Is a Biased Comparison.” The subtitle explains that the New York Times combines well-funded non-moderate PAC-endorsed candidates with unfunded “No PAC Funding” candidates, skewing results.

Three horizontal bars represent percentage point overperformance relative to presidential vote:
• Moderate (PAC Funded): purple bar extending right to +1.3 percentage points.
• Non-Moderate (PAC Funded): purple bar extending right to +0.4 points.
• No PAC Funding: large orange bar extending left to –1.9 points.

A bracket on the right groups the two purple bars, labeled “NYT ‘Non-Moderate’ Group (Combines these two categories).”

X-axis shows percentage point overperformance from –2% to +2%. The chart visually highlights that the NYT’s “Non-Moderate” category includes both viable PAC-funded non-moderates and noncompetitive unfunded candidates, creating a misleading average.

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