Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com
Pinned
Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social
· Mar 11
The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections
Most research on the electoral penalty of candidate ideology relies on betweendistrict or longitudinal comparisons, which are confounded by turnout and ballot c
papers.ssrn.com
🚨 New paper (with Kasey Rhee & Nico Studen). We use a new within-precinct design to isolate how ideology affects vote choice holding turnout fixed, analyzing 3.4M precinct observations across state & fed elections (2016-2022).
tldr: Ideological moderation affects vote shares, but not by much. 🧵⬇️
tldr: Ideological moderation affects vote shares, but not by much. 🧵⬇️
I struggle to understand people who hoard power just to refuse to ever use it.
November 10, 2025 at 6:07 PM
I struggle to understand people who hoard power just to refuse to ever use it.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
this seems like a relevant post re golden's resignation. www.everythingishorrible.net/p/if-moderat...
If Moderates Overperform, How Do You Explain Sinema?
The NYT editorial board is full of shit.
www.everythingishorrible.net
November 9, 2025 at 6:21 PM
this seems like a relevant post re golden's resignation. www.everythingishorrible.net/p/if-moderat...
Reposted by Adam Bonica
SNAP benefits are currently being held hostage by the Trump administration and their fate now lies with the Supreme Court.
Beneath the legal arguments are real people who simply need food—a former federal worker, a single mother of 4, a disabled man. I spoke to them. Here are their stories:
Beneath the legal arguments are real people who simply need food—a former federal worker, a single mother of 4, a disabled man. I spoke to them. Here are their stories:
The voices of SNAP
Recipients have become political pawns. They explained, in their own words, what Trump withholding funds has been like.
www.thehandbasket.co
November 8, 2025 at 3:08 PM
SNAP benefits are currently being held hostage by the Trump administration and their fate now lies with the Supreme Court.
Beneath the legal arguments are real people who simply need food—a former federal worker, a single mother of 4, a disabled man. I spoke to them. Here are their stories:
Beneath the legal arguments are real people who simply need food—a former federal worker, a single mother of 4, a disabled man. I spoke to them. Here are their stories:
Reposted by Adam Bonica
yeah, I mean...we just saw Ds of every ideological stripe win sweeping victories in every kind of district.
it seems pretty clear that Golden's strategy of running against the Ds a la Manchin and Sinema has backfired spectacularly in an era of massive backlash to MAGA.
it seems pretty clear that Golden's strategy of running against the Ds a la Manchin and Sinema has backfired spectacularly in an era of massive backlash to MAGA.
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
November 8, 2025 at 1:30 AM
yeah, I mean...we just saw Ds of every ideological stripe win sweeping victories in every kind of district.
it seems pretty clear that Golden's strategy of running against the Ds a la Manchin and Sinema has backfired spectacularly in an era of massive backlash to MAGA.
it seems pretty clear that Golden's strategy of running against the Ds a la Manchin and Sinema has backfired spectacularly in an era of massive backlash to MAGA.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
tough numbers for the golden child of the pro-moderation crowd
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
November 8, 2025 at 1:34 AM
tough numbers for the golden child of the pro-moderation crowd
Reposted by Adam Bonica
OMG. Is there a better example than this that Bazelon/Popularpollism are wrong?
Jared Golden probably did more than any other Dem to buck his colleagues, crap on the Democratic Party, and signal he was highly Moderate<tm>.
And it utterly failed.
Look at these numbers for indep and R’s.
Jared Golden probably did more than any other Dem to buck his colleagues, crap on the Democratic Party, and signal he was highly Moderate<tm>.
And it utterly failed.
Look at these numbers for indep and R’s.
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
November 8, 2025 at 1:22 AM
OMG. Is there a better example than this that Bazelon/Popularpollism are wrong?
Jared Golden probably did more than any other Dem to buck his colleagues, crap on the Democratic Party, and signal he was highly Moderate<tm>.
And it utterly failed.
Look at these numbers for indep and R’s.
Jared Golden probably did more than any other Dem to buck his colleagues, crap on the Democratic Party, and signal he was highly Moderate<tm>.
And it utterly failed.
Look at these numbers for indep and R’s.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
The next Democratic president can fix the evergreen government shutdown crisis: "It’s a systematic disadvantage they must fix when they have the power to do so ... No negotiation. No compromise. Just restore the system that worked for a century."
Read: data4democracy.substack.com/p/why-americ...
Read: data4democracy.substack.com/p/why-americ...
November 8, 2025 at 1:24 AM
The next Democratic president can fix the evergreen government shutdown crisis: "It’s a systematic disadvantage they must fix when they have the power to do so ... No negotiation. No compromise. Just restore the system that worked for a century."
Read: data4democracy.substack.com/p/why-americ...
Read: data4democracy.substack.com/p/why-americ...
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
November 8, 2025 at 1:10 AM
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Did you know gov shutdowns aren’t in the Constitution, any law, or Court ruling?
They exist because of a 1980 OLC memo—a lawyer’s opinion that everyone just went along with. Before 1980, funding gaps didn’t cause shutdowns.
What one memo created, another can undo. How the next D admin can undo it:
They exist because of a 1980 OLC memo—a lawyer’s opinion that everyone just went along with. Before 1980, funding gaps didn’t cause shutdowns.
What one memo created, another can undo. How the next D admin can undo it:
Why America’s Government Shutdowns Exist and How to End Them
One Legal Memo Created The Shutdown Era. Another Can End It.
open.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Did you know gov shutdowns aren’t in the Constitution, any law, or Court ruling?
They exist because of a 1980 OLC memo—a lawyer’s opinion that everyone just went along with. Before 1980, funding gaps didn’t cause shutdowns.
What one memo created, another can undo. How the next D admin can undo it:
They exist because of a 1980 OLC memo—a lawyer’s opinion that everyone just went along with. Before 1980, funding gaps didn’t cause shutdowns.
What one memo created, another can undo. How the next D admin can undo it:
In light of recent events, it seems like a good time to reup this.
“The way out isn't about left versus right; it's about clean versus corrupt, reform versus a rigged system, the people versus oligarchs.”
“The way out isn't about left versus right; it's about clean versus corrupt, reform versus a rigged system, the people versus oligarchs.”
The Democrats' Path Forward: Become the Anti-Corruption Party
But to reform the system they first need to reform the Democratic Party.
open.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 11:59 PM
In light of recent events, it seems like a good time to reup this.
“The way out isn't about left versus right; it's about clean versus corrupt, reform versus a rigged system, the people versus oligarchs.”
“The way out isn't about left versus right; it's about clean versus corrupt, reform versus a rigged system, the people versus oligarchs.”
I’ll keep pushing this line of analysis because I’m increasingly convinced the clearest path out of this mess is for Dems to adopt a relentless anti-corruption, anti-inequality, anti-oligarchy, pro-democracy platform. The Dem leadership hasn’t realized it yet, but they’re now a reform party.
November 6, 2025 at 12:06 AM
I’ll keep pushing this line of analysis because I’m increasingly convinced the clearest path out of this mess is for Dems to adopt a relentless anti-corruption, anti-inequality, anti-oligarchy, pro-democracy platform. The Dem leadership hasn’t realized it yet, but they’re now a reform party.
So proud of the students who led Stanford's 5th Democracy Day yesterday.
"Where democracy sprouts, university students are seldom far from its source. Search for democracy’s turning points—from Prague to Seoul, from Soweto to Santiago—and the pattern repeats: students move first, nations follow."
"Where democracy sprouts, university students are seldom far from its source. Search for democracy’s turning points—from Prague to Seoul, from Soweto to Santiago—and the pattern repeats: students move first, nations follow."
From the Community | Stanford's place in a global tradition of student democratic participation
Political science professor Adam Bonica writes about the importance of Democracy Day and its place in history of student protests.
stanforddaily.com
November 5, 2025 at 11:15 PM
So proud of the students who led Stanford's 5th Democracy Day yesterday.
"Where democracy sprouts, university students are seldom far from its source. Search for democracy’s turning points—from Prague to Seoul, from Soweto to Santiago—and the pattern repeats: students move first, nations follow."
"Where democracy sprouts, university students are seldom far from its source. Search for democracy’s turning points—from Prague to Seoul, from Soweto to Santiago—and the pattern repeats: students move first, nations follow."
Reposted by Adam Bonica
The reason oligarchs & the political/media class they own had a months-long elite freakout over @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is not because of any one of his policy proposals - but because his win would mean they no longer get to buy every election and control every political outcome.
Pass it on.
Pass it on.
Who’s Afraid Of Zohran Mamdani?
The mayoral candidate defeated the master plan for the first time ever — and that’s prompted an elite panic about who gets to control political outcomes.
www.levernews.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:14 PM
The reason oligarchs & the political/media class they own had a months-long elite freakout over @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is not because of any one of his policy proposals - but because his win would mean they no longer get to buy every election and control every political outcome.
Pass it on.
Pass it on.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
If you are reading this piece today, you may be interested to know that I found Adam Bonica on moderate candidates compelling. Ht @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
October 29, 2025 at 1:39 PM
If you are reading this piece today, you may be interested to know that I found Adam Bonica on moderate candidates compelling. Ht @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...
Reposted by Adam Bonica
if democrats want to win in places like ohio, iowa, and texas, they need to run on new dimensions of conflict that break right-leaning voters out of their usual patterns
October 29, 2025 at 8:22 PM
if democrats want to win in places like ohio, iowa, and texas, they need to run on new dimensions of conflict that break right-leaning voters out of their usual patterns
Fantastic article explaining why candidates can no longer outrun their party.
@leedrutman.bsky.social is absolutely right, electoral reform is needed to break the two party doom loop and he has a clear plan. In the short run, Dems can break out of the left-right frame by running on anti-corruption.
@leedrutman.bsky.social is absolutely right, electoral reform is needed to break the two party doom loop and he has a clear plan. In the short run, Dems can break out of the left-right frame by running on anti-corruption.
I jump into the moderation debate. I agree with @adambonica.bsky.social and @gelliottmorris.com on the methodology, but I want to draw attention to a bigger issue. The collapse of candidate effects generally.
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 31, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Fantastic article explaining why candidates can no longer outrun their party.
@leedrutman.bsky.social is absolutely right, electoral reform is needed to break the two party doom loop and he has a clear plan. In the short run, Dems can break out of the left-right frame by running on anti-corruption.
@leedrutman.bsky.social is absolutely right, electoral reform is needed to break the two party doom loop and he has a clear plan. In the short run, Dems can break out of the left-right frame by running on anti-corruption.
It’s a sign of the times that the people who funded the WelcomePAC report that’s telling Democrats they are “out of touch” with ordinary Americans are mostly billionaires, hedge fund managers, VCs, and corporate execs.
October 30, 2025 at 10:24 PM
It’s a sign of the times that the people who funded the WelcomePAC report that’s telling Democrats they are “out of touch” with ordinary Americans are mostly billionaires, hedge fund managers, VCs, and corporate execs.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
“Deciding to Win' also displays little awareness of what winning elections is for. There is an obvious reason why the Democratic Party ought not abandon its commitment to preventing the climate crisis," writes @davekarpf.bsky.social. Excellent piece. newrepublic.com/article/2023...
Why Centrist Democrats Keep Being Wrong About Elections
A new 60-page report insists the party is too radical. But the problem isn’t the party platform. The problem is the broader environment.
newrepublic.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:46 PM
“Deciding to Win' also displays little awareness of what winning elections is for. There is an obvious reason why the Democratic Party ought not abandon its commitment to preventing the climate crisis," writes @davekarpf.bsky.social. Excellent piece. newrepublic.com/article/2023...
Reposted by Adam Bonica
For my newsletter, I took a deeper look at the electoral record of WelcomePAC, a centrist group that produced that 352 page document advising Democrats to moderate once again.
Turns out the campaigns they work for aren't winning. www.burnsnotice.com/fire-the-con...
Turns out the campaigns they work for aren't winning. www.burnsnotice.com/fire-the-con...
Fire The Consultants
The Democratic party must move on from the same old stale, carefully poll-tested politics and get back to solving voters' problems.
There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Democra...
www.burnsnotice.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:29 PM
For my newsletter, I took a deeper look at the electoral record of WelcomePAC, a centrist group that produced that 352 page document advising Democrats to moderate once again.
Turns out the campaigns they work for aren't winning. www.burnsnotice.com/fire-the-con...
Turns out the campaigns they work for aren't winning. www.burnsnotice.com/fire-the-con...
Background on the GOP Biden probe: Trump promoted a conspiracy theory that Biden had died and was replaced by a *literal robot clone.* Days later, he ordered a federal investigation into Biden’s “autopen.” That’s the actual basis for the GOP’s claims and probably ought to be part of the reporting.
October 28, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Background on the GOP Biden probe: Trump promoted a conspiracy theory that Biden had died and was replaced by a *literal robot clone.* Days later, he ordered a federal investigation into Biden’s “autopen.” That’s the actual basis for the GOP’s claims and probably ought to be part of the reporting.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place
October 28, 2025 at 1:16 AM
My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place
Reposted by Adam Bonica
The GOP has been extremely effective at shaping perceptions of the Democrats, claiming they support policy positions they don't actually support
If your strategy, as a Dem, for winning in 2028 *STARTS* by buying their spin and lies, then you've already lost
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strate...
If your strategy, as a Dem, for winning in 2028 *STARTS* by buying their spin and lies, then you've already lost
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strate...
The Strategist’s Fallacy in American politics
The average American voter does not think about politics the way elite strategists and pundits do
www.gelliottmorris.com
October 28, 2025 at 1:21 PM
The GOP has been extremely effective at shaping perceptions of the Democrats, claiming they support policy positions they don't actually support
If your strategy, as a Dem, for winning in 2028 *STARTS* by buying their spin and lies, then you've already lost
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strate...
If your strategy, as a Dem, for winning in 2028 *STARTS* by buying their spin and lies, then you've already lost
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strate...
New analysis from Americans for Tax Fairness: US Billionaires added $5.1 trillion to their fortunes since 2017. To put that in perspective, if that money went to the American people instead, every household would get $37,800.
October 27, 2025 at 8:32 PM
New analysis from Americans for Tax Fairness: US Billionaires added $5.1 trillion to their fortunes since 2017. To put that in perspective, if that money went to the American people instead, every household would get $37,800.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
this article will publish tomorrow at 7:30 AM www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-new-yo...
The New York Times makes several crucial errors in its analysis of the electoral value of moderation | Weekly roundup for October 26, 2025
The paper's arguments hinge on a statistical flaw, and it hold critics to a double-standard. Plus: Trump's nominees, and the Republicans' lost lead on economics
www.gelliottmorris.com
October 25, 2025 at 7:12 PM
this article will publish tomorrow at 7:30 AM www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-new-yo...
Reposted by Adam Bonica
Abigail Spanberger's #VAGOV campaign says this is what the polling is like in an SMS fundraising message:
This is what @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social says the polling is like:
But fundraising requires a narrative, I guess.
This is what @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social says the polling is like:
But fundraising requires a narrative, I guess.
October 25, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Abigail Spanberger's #VAGOV campaign says this is what the polling is like in an SMS fundraising message:
This is what @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social says the polling is like:
But fundraising requires a narrative, I guess.
This is what @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social says the polling is like:
But fundraising requires a narrative, I guess.