Eric Blair
@protecttruth.bsky.social
Status Quo Politics is holding us back. Who will call for a big fight, and big change? The status quo cannot hold.
SCOTUS delenda est
SCOTUS delenda est
Pinned
Eric Blair
@protecttruth.bsky.social
· Jun 22
Why push for impeachment?
Because politics is an exercise in moving public opinion as much as counting votes in the senate.
The Jan 6 Hearings were not a criminal proceeding against Trump that would end in jail, but they focused public attention.
Performative public investigations matter
Because politics is an exercise in moving public opinion as much as counting votes in the senate.
The Jan 6 Hearings were not a criminal proceeding against Trump that would end in jail, but they focused public attention.
Performative public investigations matter
This is true for the “heritage citizen“ garbage from MAGA in the US too.
America is an idea—of equality and pluralism, rule of law and fairness not corruption and oligarchy— and that defines who Americans are. Not whether anyone’s ancestors came over on the mayflower
America is an idea—of equality and pluralism, rule of law and fairness not corruption and oligarchy— and that defines who Americans are. Not whether anyone’s ancestors came over on the mayflower
New YouGov research for ippr finds that civic conceptions of being British are held by most people, with a third prioritising birthplace. Reform voters are outliers, against the general public view, weighting ancestry and ethnicity more highly
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Number of people who say Britons must be born in UK is rising, study shows
Exclusive: Research finds ‘worrying’ surge in support for hard-right narratives on national identity
www.theguardian.com
December 30, 2025 at 6:32 PM
This is true for the “heritage citizen“ garbage from MAGA in the US too.
America is an idea—of equality and pluralism, rule of law and fairness not corruption and oligarchy— and that defines who Americans are. Not whether anyone’s ancestors came over on the mayflower
America is an idea—of equality and pluralism, rule of law and fairness not corruption and oligarchy— and that defines who Americans are. Not whether anyone’s ancestors came over on the mayflower
Reposted by Eric Blair
Still mind-blowing that a top admin official was revealed to have taken $50,000 in cash in a paper bag from people looking for government favors, the reaction of the administration was "Whatever losers, this is how it works now" and bigshot news media said "If you say so, we'll forget about it"
Border czar Tom Homan didn't receive a normal background check for his role while his bribery probe was still ongoing:
Justice officials felt sure Homan would not be able to obtain a security clearance based on the evidence gathered. It remains unclear how Homan was eventually granted clearance.
Justice officials felt sure Homan would not be able to obtain a security clearance based on the evidence gathered. It remains unclear how Homan was eventually granted clearance.
Border czar Tom Homan didn’t receive normal background check during bribery probe
President-elect Trump initially balked at submitting names of likely nominees to the FBI for background checks, a basic step intended to flag possible financial conflicts or ethical problems.
www.ms.now
December 30, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Still mind-blowing that a top admin official was revealed to have taken $50,000 in cash in a paper bag from people looking for government favors, the reaction of the administration was "Whatever losers, this is how it works now" and bigshot news media said "If you say so, we'll forget about it"
Reposted by Eric Blair
it’s as if no one in the UK is paying attention to the morass that is US politics or saw but instead of saying what a hot mess and doing the opposite, pulled ye olde “hold my beer” jfc
The quantbrain popularism approach Labour took is most clear on immigration where instead of being an inspiring leader Starmer chose to be Tory-lite.
Starmer’s shift to the right to combat Farage threat is ‘doomed’, union boss warns
Union boss Matt Wrack warned that the PM ‘can never out-Farage Farage’ as the government attempt to win back votes lost to Reform UK
www.the-independent.com
December 29, 2025 at 3:39 PM
it’s as if no one in the UK is paying attention to the morass that is US politics or saw but instead of saying what a hot mess and doing the opposite, pulled ye olde “hold my beer” jfc
UK Labour used the quantbrain consultant approach, picking a grab bag of issues to back based on issue polls and now, unsurprisingly, their approval is in the toilet.
Quantbrain politics is the opposite of leadership, strategy, and inspiration.
Quantbrain politics is the opposite of leadership, strategy, and inspiration.
so it happened - greens just met labour in the polling average
December 29, 2025 at 2:59 PM
UK Labour used the quantbrain consultant approach, picking a grab bag of issues to back based on issue polls and now, unsurprisingly, their approval is in the toilet.
Quantbrain politics is the opposite of leadership, strategy, and inspiration.
Quantbrain politics is the opposite of leadership, strategy, and inspiration.
Reposted by Eric Blair
100%. This would be a good thing to let D candidates know now that we expect from them.
December 29, 2025 at 2:06 PM
100%. This would be a good thing to let D candidates know now that we expect from them.
Reposted by Eric Blair
Everyone should have been talking about this nonstop for weeks, and I will keep posting about it until people do.
Epstein emails show that Epstein helped Russia blackmail Donald Trump:
Epstein emails show that Epstein helped Russia blackmail Donald Trump:
December 27, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Everyone should have been talking about this nonstop for weeks, and I will keep posting about it until people do.
Epstein emails show that Epstein helped Russia blackmail Donald Trump:
Epstein emails show that Epstein helped Russia blackmail Donald Trump:
I see the old bluesky main discourse is back to again misunderstanding politics as not being about media vibes and public opinion
🤮
🤮
December 29, 2025 at 5:52 AM
I see the old bluesky main discourse is back to again misunderstanding politics as not being about media vibes and public opinion
🤮
🤮
Ok, since we are talking about Sullivan and Mac Bundy:
This is not wrong wrong but it is highly misleading.
1. McNamara‘s biggest sin was falling in love with data: he had an early case of quantbrain disease.
2. Bundy, other aides, and the generals played a HUGE role
3. Nixon covered it up too.
1/
This is not wrong wrong but it is highly misleading.
1. McNamara‘s biggest sin was falling in love with data: he had an early case of quantbrain disease.
2. Bundy, other aides, and the generals played a HUGE role
3. Nixon covered it up too.
1/
This is the problem of people who have no grasp of history. Robert McNamara - JFK and LBJ's SECDEF - was the one who consistently buried the truth that we were losing. We know this from a very important source:
Robert McNamara
Robert McNamara
And it was Nixon & Company who kept lying about how well it was going, at every opportunity.
December 28, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Ok, since we are talking about Sullivan and Mac Bundy:
This is not wrong wrong but it is highly misleading.
1. McNamara‘s biggest sin was falling in love with data: he had an early case of quantbrain disease.
2. Bundy, other aides, and the generals played a HUGE role
3. Nixon covered it up too.
1/
This is not wrong wrong but it is highly misleading.
1. McNamara‘s biggest sin was falling in love with data: he had an early case of quantbrain disease.
2. Bundy, other aides, and the generals played a HUGE role
3. Nixon covered it up too.
1/
Reposted by Eric Blair
1. Establishing causality with certainty is exceptionally difficult in elections;
2. Anybody who doesn’t think Gaza had a profound impact on the election shouldn’t write about politics, even casually on social media
2. Anybody who doesn’t think Gaza had a profound impact on the election shouldn’t write about politics, even casually on social media
December 28, 2025 at 5:06 PM
1. Establishing causality with certainty is exceptionally difficult in elections;
2. Anybody who doesn’t think Gaza had a profound impact on the election shouldn’t write about politics, even casually on social media
2. Anybody who doesn’t think Gaza had a profound impact on the election shouldn’t write about politics, even casually on social media
Reposted by Eric Blair
Good news, I wrote about how quantbrain demands for evidence for every decision were shown false by natural experiment studies.
No surprise the centrist consultants don’t understand the implications of natl expts or other handles on complex systems (despite the Nobel prize award to them).
No surprise the centrist consultants don’t understand the implications of natl expts or other handles on complex systems (despite the Nobel prize award to them).
Overreliance on polling is sinking American democracy
Democratic leaders: be bold and strategic, instead of making every decision based on data
Boosters for COVID-19 have become a high-stakes issue. This summer, Americans thought COV...
www.deepnarrative.io
December 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Good news, I wrote about how quantbrain demands for evidence for every decision were shown false by natural experiment studies.
No surprise the centrist consultants don’t understand the implications of natl expts or other handles on complex systems (despite the Nobel prize award to them).
No surprise the centrist consultants don’t understand the implications of natl expts or other handles on complex systems (despite the Nobel prize award to them).
Yes and it’s why I welcome @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social and @maxboot.bsky.social. They did hard things, admitted hard truths.
It is why I have so much scorn for David Brooks and Ross Douthat and Caitlin Flanagan and those who are still today making excuses
It is why I have so much scorn for David Brooks and Ross Douthat and Caitlin Flanagan and those who are still today making excuses
I am A TINY BIT sympathetic.
These kind of centrist white conservatives have spent decades being fetted as the wizened and brilliant center of american politics. The beating heart of sanity and patriotism.
Grappling with your politics being exposed as unpopular and powerless sucks
These kind of centrist white conservatives have spent decades being fetted as the wizened and brilliant center of american politics. The beating heart of sanity and patriotism.
Grappling with your politics being exposed as unpopular and powerless sucks
December 28, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Yes and it’s why I welcome @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social and @maxboot.bsky.social. They did hard things, admitted hard truths.
It is why I have so much scorn for David Brooks and Ross Douthat and Caitlin Flanagan and those who are still today making excuses
It is why I have so much scorn for David Brooks and Ross Douthat and Caitlin Flanagan and those who are still today making excuses
Complex outcomes are multicausal and still that means we can and should discuss individual component causes
There is not single thing that if Harris had done it better would have won her the election; or rather, there are an infinite number of such things.
December 28, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Complex outcomes are multicausal and still that means we can and should discuss individual component causes
I will drop links to evidence and recommend articles to people who are skeptics, but i will not do the work for them.
Read, follow or get out of the way
Read, follow or get out of the way
December 28, 2025 at 4:32 PM
I will drop links to evidence and recommend articles to people who are skeptics, but i will not do the work for them.
Read, follow or get out of the way
Read, follow or get out of the way
This is the core issue: Dem leaders’ failure to fight.
They’ve shown minimal fight against Trump 2016-now, no fight against SCOTUS, no fight against Koch. It’s since the GW Bush days: see Al Gore rolling over as the Kavanaugh Activist Crew stole the 2000 election via legal action, PR, and SCOTUS.
They’ve shown minimal fight against Trump 2016-now, no fight against SCOTUS, no fight against Koch. It’s since the GW Bush days: see Al Gore rolling over as the Kavanaugh Activist Crew stole the 2000 election via legal action, PR, and SCOTUS.
What got us Trump was the GOP being a malevolent force for evil and the Democrats at every turn refusing to fire full blast at the right (including before Trump). It’s obviously not all on Harris but a cycle with Democrats assuming the left would just show up without any motivation is a big reason.
They have a point. “She didn’t earn my vote” got us Trump. Like I think it’s good to push against the party for better policy but when the alternative is Trump, it’s too much.
December 28, 2025 at 2:04 PM
This is the core issue: Dem leaders’ failure to fight.
They’ve shown minimal fight against Trump 2016-now, no fight against SCOTUS, no fight against Koch. It’s since the GW Bush days: see Al Gore rolling over as the Kavanaugh Activist Crew stole the 2000 election via legal action, PR, and SCOTUS.
They’ve shown minimal fight against Trump 2016-now, no fight against SCOTUS, no fight against Koch. It’s since the GW Bush days: see Al Gore rolling over as the Kavanaugh Activist Crew stole the 2000 election via legal action, PR, and SCOTUS.
The problem with this line of argument is that it’s nearly totally unrelated to “the Biden White House completely screwed up on Gaza and got Trump elected.”
Stopping Netanyahu might not have been possible. But what the Biden WH REALLY screwed up is the domestic politics— breaking from Netanyahu’s
Stopping Netanyahu might not have been possible. But what the Biden WH REALLY screwed up is the domestic politics— breaking from Netanyahu’s
A Pres AOC might have tried to cut aid faster but she would not have had that much more political room to maneuver than Biden.
I think that the Gaza War plays out on its actual trajectory no matter what the US did (even tho we should have ceased support for Israel long ago).
Bibi and his party/
I think that the Gaza War plays out on its actual trajectory no matter what the US did (even tho we should have ceased support for Israel long ago).
Bibi and his party/
December 28, 2025 at 5:20 AM
The problem with this line of argument is that it’s nearly totally unrelated to “the Biden White House completely screwed up on Gaza and got Trump elected.”
Stopping Netanyahu might not have been possible. But what the Biden WH REALLY screwed up is the domestic politics— breaking from Netanyahu’s
Stopping Netanyahu might not have been possible. But what the Biden WH REALLY screwed up is the domestic politics— breaking from Netanyahu’s
Reposted by Eric Blair
I feel like the Framers were very specific about this not happening
🚨 New: “Presidency Boosts Trump’s Net Worth By $3 Billion In A Year”
“Vaulted him 118 spots on The Forbes 400, where he lands at No. 201 this year.”
@danalexander21.bsky.social for @forbes.com
“Vaulted him 118 spots on The Forbes 400, where he lands at No. 201 this year.”
@danalexander21.bsky.social for @forbes.com
Trump Jumps 118 Spots On The Forbes 400 List Thanks To Presidency
Donald Trump lost money during his first term. Out of office, he found a formula for profiting off politics—now he’s piling up billions.
www.forbes.com
December 28, 2025 at 4:56 AM
I feel like the Framers were very specific about this not happening
I don’t see it this way.
The luxury of holding out for a perfect candidate is much more about money than race.
The wealthy leftists (see Chapo, Nathan R, Briahna J G, Virgil T etc) is who this is often true for. But even so not always.
The luxury of holding out for a perfect candidate is much more about money than race.
The wealthy leftists (see Chapo, Nathan R, Briahna J G, Virgil T etc) is who this is often true for. But even so not always.
December 28, 2025 at 5:08 AM
I don’t see it this way.
The luxury of holding out for a perfect candidate is much more about money than race.
The wealthy leftists (see Chapo, Nathan R, Briahna J G, Virgil T etc) is who this is often true for. But even so not always.
The luxury of holding out for a perfect candidate is much more about money than race.
The wealthy leftists (see Chapo, Nathan R, Briahna J G, Virgil T etc) is who this is often true for. But even so not always.
Reposted by Eric Blair
The right wing meltdown about the NY mag photo shoot is telling. She is not some elite richie rich but they complain about her that way because she is striking and beautiful in a way that cuts against the Mar a Lago aesthetic. But even more, those photos!
I get served NYP a lot on fb (how I found the butt phrenology thing I just posted) and they’ve been on a wiiiiiiild blitz of meltdown posts about her NY mag interview
Like every day, a new one
Like every day, a new one
December 28, 2025 at 12:06 AM
The right wing meltdown about the NY mag photo shoot is telling. She is not some elite richie rich but they complain about her that way because she is striking and beautiful in a way that cuts against the Mar a Lago aesthetic. But even more, those photos!
McGeorge Bundy front of mind today
December 27, 2025 at 11:57 PM
McGeorge Bundy front of mind today
Reposted by Eric Blair
A VERY senior DC hand who has known Biden for almost 50 years personally gave his senior people my CV, along w/4 other people’s resumes during the 2020 transition w/recommendations we be hired. None of us were contacted on our applications through the transition site. 2/
December 27, 2025 at 11:26 PM
A VERY senior DC hand who has known Biden for almost 50 years personally gave his senior people my CV, along w/4 other people’s resumes during the 2020 transition w/recommendations we be hired. None of us were contacted on our applications through the transition site. 2/
I'm not going to argue at length, but want to address this:
Biden failures on Israel and Gaza DID help get Trump elected.
This line of counterargument 👇 is typical Dem establishment quantbrain tunnel vision. 1/
Biden failures on Israel and Gaza DID help get Trump elected.
This line of counterargument 👇 is typical Dem establishment quantbrain tunnel vision. 1/
December 27, 2025 at 10:20 PM
I'm not going to argue at length, but want to address this:
Biden failures on Israel and Gaza DID help get Trump elected.
This line of counterargument 👇 is typical Dem establishment quantbrain tunnel vision. 1/
Biden failures on Israel and Gaza DID help get Trump elected.
This line of counterargument 👇 is typical Dem establishment quantbrain tunnel vision. 1/
blocked a person who fired off five bad replies and quotes at me. major theme was accusing me of being pro-Iran for noting that there are thinktanks that are insane and wild-eyed hawks on Iran.
(Iran’s leaders are authoritarian theocrats that have similarities with Vought and Netanyahu)
(Iran’s leaders are authoritarian theocrats that have similarities with Vought and Netanyahu)
December 27, 2025 at 9:34 PM
blocked a person who fired off five bad replies and quotes at me. major theme was accusing me of being pro-Iran for noting that there are thinktanks that are insane and wild-eyed hawks on Iran.
(Iran’s leaders are authoritarian theocrats that have similarities with Vought and Netanyahu)
(Iran’s leaders are authoritarian theocrats that have similarities with Vought and Netanyahu)
Instructive on this question to think on who would have not completely screwed up US Israel-Gaza policy if Biden had hired them. It needs to be someone who gets politics here and there, but isn’t an anti-Iran or anti-Zionist ideologue, and needs to be someone with courage of their convictions.
1/
1/
The problem with this premise is a hypothetical president AOC or (insert progressive here) would almost certainly be filled with a bunch of overconfident, uninformed ninnies albeit for reasons entirely different from those animating Sullivan and co.
Has anyone written the definitive piece about Jake Sullivan’s world-historic errors on Gaza and Israel that got Trump elected, and how he and his team were a bunch of overconfident, uninformed ninnies who should be nowhere near power ever again?
We need a President AOC just to break from this past
We need a President AOC just to break from this past
December 27, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Instructive on this question to think on who would have not completely screwed up US Israel-Gaza policy if Biden had hired them. It needs to be someone who gets politics here and there, but isn’t an anti-Iran or anti-Zionist ideologue, and needs to be someone with courage of their convictions.
1/
1/
Reposted by Eric Blair
I think a major issue is that smart ambitious left-liberals don’t want to do war or bombing but want to build housing and make people‘a lives better and pursue careers in domestic policy instead.
December 27, 2025 at 8:31 PM
I think a major issue is that smart ambitious left-liberals don’t want to do war or bombing but want to build housing and make people‘a lives better and pursue careers in domestic policy instead.