Kevin Collins
@kwcollins.bsky.social
Co-founder, Survey 160. Loves survey and voter participation. Researcher. Democrat. YIMBY. Husband and Dad. Opinion haver and measurer. Outdoors and cooking enthusiast. He/Him
Pinned
On one hand, I like the trend towards pundit predictions and accountability. On the other hand, I find laundry lists pretty useless unless you only care about a scoreboard. It's more useful to give a smaller number of predictions and then detail the basis for each.
January 5, 2026 at 6:01 PM
On one hand, I like the trend towards pundit predictions and accountability. On the other hand, I find laundry lists pretty useless unless you only care about a scoreboard. It's more useful to give a smaller number of predictions and then detail the basis for each.
Reposted by Kevin Collins
One of the most lopsided results you'll ever see in a poll, from our weekend Washington Post poll www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...
January 5, 2026 at 3:39 PM
One of the most lopsided results you'll ever see in a poll, from our weekend Washington Post poll www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...
I understand the critique, but I for one aspire to a better politics that is about more than just "pushing buttons to get public reactions we need to trigger"
Kevin is 100% right on the merits and yet the consistent failure of liberals and Democrats is failing to translate merits to viscerally-accessible punchlines. Politics is about pushing buttons to get public reactions we need to trigger.
Everyone please hold three thoughts simultaneously
1) Maduro was a bad person, and was holding power illegitimately after the true results of democratic election would have ousted him from power
2) The US should not depose leaders without congressional authorization for military action
1) Maduro was a bad person, and was holding power illegitimately after the true results of democratic election would have ousted him from power
2) The US should not depose leaders without congressional authorization for military action
January 4, 2026 at 2:11 PM
I understand the critique, but I for one aspire to a better politics that is about more than just "pushing buttons to get public reactions we need to trigger"
lol
I think Mamdani really hit a nerve with the reactionaries this time. Absolute crack pipe take to say that the sacraments of the Church are individualistic. Not a single one of the sacraments is individualistic. Hell is full of individuals though.
January 4, 2026 at 2:05 PM
lol
Everyone please hold three thoughts simultaneously
1) Maduro was a bad person, and was holding power illegitimately after the true results of democratic election would have ousted him from power
2) The US should not depose leaders without congressional authorization for military action
1) Maduro was a bad person, and was holding power illegitimately after the true results of democratic election would have ousted him from power
2) The US should not depose leaders without congressional authorization for military action
January 4, 2026 at 1:59 PM
Everyone please hold three thoughts simultaneously
1) Maduro was a bad person, and was holding power illegitimately after the true results of democratic election would have ousted him from power
2) The US should not depose leaders without congressional authorization for military action
1) Maduro was a bad person, and was holding power illegitimately after the true results of democratic election would have ousted him from power
2) The US should not depose leaders without congressional authorization for military action
FWIW, I would expect estimates of support for "send troops to remove Maduro" and "Use Military Force to Overthrow Maduro" to rise a little in the next week, as Republican support (which is only in the mid to high 50s) rises following partisan cue-taking, but for it to remain net-negative
Polls conducted in late 2025 show that most Americans, by a 25-50 point margin (depending on question wording), oppose the use of military force against Venezuela.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
January 4, 2026 at 1:54 PM
FWIW, I would expect estimates of support for "send troops to remove Maduro" and "Use Military Force to Overthrow Maduro" to rise a little in the next week, as Republican support (which is only in the mid to high 50s) rises following partisan cue-taking, but for it to remain net-negative
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Polls conducted in late 2025 show that most Americans, by a 25-50 point margin (depending on question wording), oppose the use of military force against Venezuela.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
January 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Polls conducted in late 2025 show that most Americans, by a 25-50 point margin (depending on question wording), oppose the use of military force against Venezuela.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...
Reposted by Kevin Collins
www.thesageleafstudio.com/products/nat...
These exist! Courtesy of artist Jenny McCarty of Sage Leaf Studio
These exist! Courtesy of artist Jenny McCarty of Sage Leaf Studio
National Parks Pass Stickers - Donate to the National Park Foundation
Cover your National Parks Pass with these $5 scenic vinyl stickers. Choose from 3 designs. 100% of proceeds go to the National Park Foundation.
www.thesageleafstudio.com
January 3, 2026 at 7:32 PM
www.thesageleafstudio.com/products/nat...
These exist! Courtesy of artist Jenny McCarty of Sage Leaf Studio
These exist! Courtesy of artist Jenny McCarty of Sage Leaf Studio
If someone marketed a Sam the Eagle sticker sized perfectly to fit over Trump's ugly mug (which is where the winner of a photo contest is supposed to be by law), I'd buy it and I'm sure I'm not alone
Bought a new National Park pass to replace my expired one from last year, and… FUCK!
January 3, 2026 at 7:29 PM
If someone marketed a Sam the Eagle sticker sized perfectly to fit over Trump's ugly mug (which is where the winner of a photo contest is supposed to be by law), I'd buy it and I'm sure I'm not alone
Interesting paper on what deer hunting (and surveys of deer hunters) can tell us about survey non-response (apparently, license holders are more likely to respond to the surveys if they are successful in harvesting a deer) academic.oup.com/jssam/advanc...
Repeated Attempt Models for Nonresponse Bias: Small Sample Performance, Optimization of Contact Attempts, and an Application to Deer Hunters
Abstract. Nonresponse bias is a pervasive issue in surveys of people, affecting data quality across the social sciences. Such bias arises when the propensi
academic.oup.com
January 3, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Interesting paper on what deer hunting (and surveys of deer hunters) can tell us about survey non-response (apparently, license holders are more likely to respond to the surveys if they are successful in harvesting a deer) academic.oup.com/jssam/advanc...
Reposted by Kevin Collins
There is no plan, gang
January 3, 2026 at 4:48 PM
There is no plan, gang
Reposted by Kevin Collins
A side story is there’s a ton of insider trading on these prediction markets. New accounts making hundreds of thousands on their first and only trade, that maduro would be ousted. Seems like insider trading is legal if not encouraged on these platforms
January 3, 2026 at 5:29 PM
A side story is there’s a ton of insider trading on these prediction markets. New accounts making hundreds of thousands on their first and only trade, that maduro would be ousted. Seems like insider trading is legal if not encouraged on these platforms
I do not believe this is likely to improve his approval rating. Especially not with the promise of boots on the ground
Trump: "We're going to have our very large United States oil companies go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country. And we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so."
January 3, 2026 at 5:27 PM
I do not believe this is likely to improve his approval rating. Especially not with the promise of boots on the ground
Moving @katz.theracket.news’s book up my reading list jonathanmkatz.com/gangsters
January 3, 2026 at 5:22 PM
Moving @katz.theracket.news’s book up my reading list jonathanmkatz.com/gangsters
Reposted by Kevin Collins
An unforgettable cover
January 3, 2026 at 5:17 PM
An unforgettable cover
Serious question for international law scholars: the US Supreme Court had effectively immunized Trump for all of his crimes under domestic law, but what would (legally, not politically) stop a future US President from overseeing his extradition to be tried by a foreign court?
January 3, 2026 at 5:17 PM
Serious question for international law scholars: the US Supreme Court had effectively immunized Trump for all of his crimes under domestic law, but what would (legally, not politically) stop a future US President from overseeing his extradition to be tried by a foreign court?
“We will continue to follow illegal orders”
“There is always a chance that we’ll be tasked to do this type of mission again.” - Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs
January 3, 2026 at 5:11 PM
“We will continue to follow illegal orders”
I am reconsidering my optimism about 2026
January 3, 2026 at 5:10 PM
I am reconsidering my optimism about 2026
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Specifically, a protest song about how the sons of the rich were able to avoid fighting, like fighting-age Donald Trump who got four deferments for being in college and another for bone spurs.
Trump posts footage of the Maduro raid set to "Fortunate Son" -- a protest song about the Vietnam War draft
January 3, 2026 at 4:28 PM
Specifically, a protest song about how the sons of the rich were able to avoid fighting, like fighting-age Donald Trump who got four deferments for being in college and another for bone spurs.
Do other countries get to apply this rule too?
Marco Rubio is reportedly saying Maduro will stand trial in US courts.
Which means it’s now the US administration’s position that US courts can hold foreign presidents, but not the US president, accountable for crimes.
Which means it’s now the US administration’s position that US courts can hold foreign presidents, but not the US president, accountable for crimes.
January 3, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Do other countries get to apply this rule too?
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Almost always, if someone’s talking about the U.S. Constitution and they say some actor has “inherent” power to do X, that means the text says nothing about the actor having X power and the speaker is just making it up.
January 3, 2026 at 2:36 PM
Almost always, if someone’s talking about the U.S. Constitution and they say some actor has “inherent” power to do X, that means the text says nothing about the actor having X power and the speaker is just making it up.
Reposted by Kevin Collins
imagine being the ethics lawyer charged with telling Trump Admin officials they can't accept bribes. And being so good at it they just fire you.
A top DoJ official trained Pam Bondi on ethics rules in the department. Then he was fired
A top DoJ official trained Pam Bondi on ethics rules in the department. Then he was fired
Joseph Tirell says before he was fired as the DoJ’s senior ethics attorney, he fought battles over matters like the US attorney general accepting gifts
www.theguardian.com
January 3, 2026 at 2:17 PM
imagine being the ethics lawyer charged with telling Trump Admin officials they can't accept bribes. And being so good at it they just fire you.
Reposted by Kevin Collins
“Deportation numbers are down; causing unrest in the region will increase migration before midterms, allowing for easier and more visible attainment of deportation goals” is at the exact nexus of banal evil and stupidity where they’re most comfortable.
there is no scenario where MCM makes a triumphant return what is the actual point
January 3, 2026 at 2:22 PM
“Deportation numbers are down; causing unrest in the region will increase migration before midterms, allowing for easier and more visible attainment of deportation goals” is at the exact nexus of banal evil and stupidity where they’re most comfortable.
Reposted by Kevin Collins
You know when you have a destabilized country it often helps if you have a longstanding instrument of American soft power that could say, quickly and cheaply deploy basic services anywhere and has already been propping up all sorts of America-friendly institutions.
Missteps, Confusion and ‘Viral Waste’: The 14 Days That Doomed U.S.A.I.D.
www.nytimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 2:27 PM
You know when you have a destabilized country it often helps if you have a longstanding instrument of American soft power that could say, quickly and cheaply deploy basic services anywhere and has already been propping up all sorts of America-friendly institutions.
Good international law thread
A note on today’s announcement on Maduro’s capture: insofar as the Trump admin is relying on the consent of Venezuela’s opposition (and U.S.-recognized gov’t) as an international legal justification, that would be new — not even clearly supported by the Panama precedent.
January 3, 2026 at 2:33 PM
Good international law thread