Kevin Collins
@kwcollins.bsky.social
Co-founder, Survey 160. Loves survey and voter participation. Researcher. Democrat. YIMBY. Husband and Dad. Opinion haver and measurer. Outdoors and cooking enthusiast. He/Him
Pinned
Kevin Collins
@kwcollins.bsky.social
· Mar 24
“Forget the myths the media has created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.”
Reposted by Kevin Collins
His children lose their father's care.
Our economy loses his skill.
Our treasury loses his tax payments.
This family separation makes America poorer & less joyful.
President Reagan's amnesty program would have let him become a citizen after paperwork & paying $185 ($550 w/inflation).
Our economy loses his skill.
Our treasury loses his tax payments.
This family separation makes America poorer & less joyful.
President Reagan's amnesty program would have let him become a citizen after paperwork & paying $185 ($550 w/inflation).
It has been enormously difficult to see our members at American Families United go through forced family separation. Here's the story of Jenni and her husband. "Mexican father, reflecting a trend, leaves family of 19 years and self-deports due to threat of arrest."
abcnews.go.com/US/mexican-f...
abcnews.go.com/US/mexican-f...
Mexican father, reflecting a trend, leaves family of 19 years and self-deports due to threat of arrest
Fidel Rivera, a husband and father who has been in the U.S. for 30 years, is one of thousands of undocumented migrants who have self-deported due to the threat of arrest.
abcnews.go.com
November 11, 2025 at 10:36 AM
His children lose their father's care.
Our economy loses his skill.
Our treasury loses his tax payments.
This family separation makes America poorer & less joyful.
President Reagan's amnesty program would have let him become a citizen after paperwork & paying $185 ($550 w/inflation).
Our economy loses his skill.
Our treasury loses his tax payments.
This family separation makes America poorer & less joyful.
President Reagan's amnesty program would have let him become a citizen after paperwork & paying $185 ($550 w/inflation).
November 11, 2025 at 2:54 AM
I'm not sure when The Diplomat jumped the shark, but by S3E8 it's got it's waterskiing with feet on each of two sharks pulled by a flying unicorn
November 11, 2025 at 1:32 AM
I'm not sure when The Diplomat jumped the shark, but by S3E8 it's got it's waterskiing with feet on each of two sharks pulled by a flying unicorn
It would be helpful if Tatte did not locate *three* of its DC cafes on I street, to avoid "oh wrong Tatte" problems
November 10, 2025 at 7:52 PM
It would be helpful if Tatte did not locate *three* of its DC cafes on I street, to avoid "oh wrong Tatte" problems
Fusilli, you crazy bastard
November 10, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Fusilli, you crazy bastard
If you ever want a 4 hour podcast on the history of Costco, I found this incredibly interesting. www.acquired.fm/episodes/cos...
November 10, 2025 at 6:59 PM
If you ever want a 4 hour podcast on the history of Costco, I found this incredibly interesting. www.acquired.fm/episodes/cos...
Christmas gift braintrust: Does anyone have good ideas of kits to get to build with a 4.5 year old? An example is the kit birdhouse we got him earlier this year. Doesn't have to be something something that he can do totally solo, but also not involving, like, my table saw
November 10, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Christmas gift braintrust: Does anyone have good ideas of kits to get to build with a 4.5 year old? An example is the kit birdhouse we got him earlier this year. Doesn't have to be something something that he can do totally solo, but also not involving, like, my table saw
Reposted by Kevin Collins
AtlasIntel, the self-proclaimed “best pollster in America,” missed last week’s elections by an average of 9 points across races and by 14 points in New Jersey.
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
What makes the “best pollsters” of 2024 so accurate?
Primarily it’s a mix of experimentation and biased estimates that get lucky
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:32 PM
AtlasIntel, the self-proclaimed “best pollster in America,” missed last week’s elections by an average of 9 points across races and by 14 points in New Jersey.
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
Happy Monday for everyone except US Senators content to see healthcare costs rise
November 10, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Happy Monday for everyone except US Senators content to see healthcare costs rise
Nihilism in the replies gets you blocked, FYI
November 10, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Nihilism in the replies gets you blocked, FYI
I don’t need to be told that Democrats are fighting.
I need *shown* that Democrats are fighting, and be told what the plan is to win that fight (or otherwise be convinced one exists)
I need *shown* that Democrats are fighting, and be told what the plan is to win that fight (or otherwise be convinced one exists)
Democrats have been fighting for months to address America's healthcare crisis
For the millions who will lose coverage
For people with cancer who won't get the care they need
For working families who can't afford to pay $25K more a year for healthcare
We will keep fighting
For the millions who will lose coverage
For people with cancer who won't get the care they need
For working families who can't afford to pay $25K more a year for healthcare
We will keep fighting
November 10, 2025 at 12:24 PM
I don’t need to be told that Democrats are fighting.
I need *shown* that Democrats are fighting, and be told what the plan is to win that fight (or otherwise be convinced one exists)
I need *shown* that Democrats are fighting, and be told what the plan is to win that fight (or otherwise be convinced one exists)
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Kyle Kingsbury is not a journalist. He is not an op-ed writer.
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
November 9, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Kyle Kingsbury is not a journalist. He is not an op-ed writer.
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Looking forward to being back at @sociologyoxford.bsky.social today talking about differential mobilization and turnout inequality: talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/9ae... Say hi if you around Oxford!
November 10, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Looking forward to being back at @sociologyoxford.bsky.social today talking about differential mobilization and turnout inequality: talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/9ae... Say hi if you around Oxford!
So basically this just stops Trump from firing workers over Christmas?
The only exception to that is with respect to reductions in force (RIFs). The bill appears to both roll back RIFs announced during the shutdown and prevent any further RIFs between now and Jan 30.
November 10, 2025 at 2:26 AM
So basically this just stops Trump from firing workers over Christmas?
Reposted by Kevin Collins
watching my Obamacare premiums go from $422/month to $1455/month on the Senate floor right now.
November 10, 2025 at 1:52 AM
watching my Obamacare premiums go from $422/month to $1455/month on the Senate floor right now.
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Republicans could have voted for this on their own. They wanted Democrats to share the burden because it is a disaster for the American people.
They got what they wanted.
They got what they wanted.
November 10, 2025 at 2:17 AM
Republicans could have voted for this on their own. They wanted Democrats to share the burden because it is a disaster for the American people.
They got what they wanted.
They got what they wanted.
The reason Dems are losing the endgame is that, from the best I can tell as an outsider following the news, they never had a strategy to win the endgame
November 10, 2025 at 2:16 AM
The reason Dems are losing the endgame is that, from the best I can tell as an outsider following the news, they never had a strategy to win the endgame
Reposted by Kevin Collins
I’m certain Kaine is covering for Warner but also I am almost certain he’s not going to run again in 2030 (this is not due to any inside knowledge)
November 10, 2025 at 2:13 AM
I’m certain Kaine is covering for Warner but also I am almost certain he’s not going to run again in 2030 (this is not due to any inside knowledge)
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Assume all the yes and no votes from Dem senators are strategic and not sincere votes. The party caucus made a decision. No way to know how many were in favor. Then the caucus decided who would vote yes and no based on what would protect each of them politically the most. That’s how this works.
November 10, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Assume all the yes and no votes from Dem senators are strategic and not sincere votes. The party caucus made a decision. No way to know how many were in favor. Then the caucus decided who would vote yes and no based on what would protect each of them politically the most. That’s how this works.
Notable to me that Mark Warner, who is up in 2026, voted no while Kaine voted yes
Dems who voted with GOP on ending shutdown:
DURBIN
SHAHEEN
HASSAN
FETTERMAN
ROSEN
CORTEZ MASTO
KAINE
And KING (I)
On track for 60-40 vote
DURBIN
SHAHEEN
HASSAN
FETTERMAN
ROSEN
CORTEZ MASTO
KAINE
And KING (I)
On track for 60-40 vote
November 10, 2025 at 2:09 AM
Notable to me that Mark Warner, who is up in 2026, voted no while Kaine voted yes
Saturday: Chinese-American-style kung pao chicken with rice, steamed broccoli, pot stickers, and cucumber salad
Sunday: Roast delicata squash with farro-sausage stuffing; kale salad with apples and cheddar frico
Tuesday: Chile verde chicken tacos, rice, refried beans, pico-inspired salad
Sunday: Roast delicata squash with farro-sausage stuffing; kale salad with apples and cheddar frico
Tuesday: Chile verde chicken tacos, rice, refried beans, pico-inspired salad
November 9, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Saturday: Chinese-American-style kung pao chicken with rice, steamed broccoli, pot stickers, and cucumber salad
Sunday: Roast delicata squash with farro-sausage stuffing; kale salad with apples and cheddar frico
Tuesday: Chile verde chicken tacos, rice, refried beans, pico-inspired salad
Sunday: Roast delicata squash with farro-sausage stuffing; kale salad with apples and cheddar frico
Tuesday: Chile verde chicken tacos, rice, refried beans, pico-inspired salad
With Grand Admiral Thrawn
what star wars really need is a HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER style submarine thriller
November 8, 2025 at 8:04 PM
With Grand Admiral Thrawn
Got together with some friends this am and made 75 burritos for neighbors in need.
November 8, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Got together with some friends this am and made 75 burritos for neighbors in need.
We really need to stop treating betting odds (even if you call them "prediction markets") as politically meaningful data. They're not assessments of what people think (that's polls), they're assessments of what some bettors (many seemingly with more money than sense) think that people will think.
November 7, 2025 at 6:46 PM
We really need to stop treating betting odds (even if you call them "prediction markets") as politically meaningful data. They're not assessments of what people think (that's polls), they're assessments of what some bettors (many seemingly with more money than sense) think that people will think.
This, but also require blind trusts
ryan is right. people HATE hearing this. but it is just a matter of simple incentives. if you want a more representative legislature — and if you want a legislature more resistant to corruption — then you need to jack up the salaries. serving as mayor of NYC should net you a cool 500K *at least*
people hate hearing this but it's 100% true, creating a huge pay gap between political leaders, their staffs, and other elites is a recipe for corruption. of course the flip side of that is taxes on the rich should be jacked way the hell up
November 7, 2025 at 4:30 PM
This, but also require blind trusts