Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com
I struggle to understand people who hoard power just to refuse to ever use it.
November 10, 2025 at 6:07 PM
I struggle to understand people who hoard power just to refuse to ever use it.
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
November 8, 2025 at 1:10 AM
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
It’s a sign of the times that the people who funded the WelcomePAC report that’s telling Democrats they are “out of touch” with ordinary Americans are mostly billionaires, hedge fund managers, VCs, and corporate execs.
October 30, 2025 at 10:24 PM
It’s a sign of the times that the people who funded the WelcomePAC report that’s telling Democrats they are “out of touch” with ordinary Americans are mostly billionaires, hedge fund managers, VCs, and corporate execs.
Background on the GOP Biden probe: Trump promoted a conspiracy theory that Biden had died and was replaced by a *literal robot clone.* Days later, he ordered a federal investigation into Biden’s “autopen.” That’s the actual basis for the GOP’s claims and probably ought to be part of the reporting.
October 28, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Background on the GOP Biden probe: Trump promoted a conspiracy theory that Biden had died and was replaced by a *literal robot clone.* Days later, he ordered a federal investigation into Biden’s “autopen.” That’s the actual basis for the GOP’s claims and probably ought to be part of the reporting.
New analysis from Americans for Tax Fairness: US Billionaires added $5.1 trillion to their fortunes since 2017. To put that in perspective, if that money went to the American people instead, every household would get $37,800.
October 27, 2025 at 8:32 PM
New analysis from Americans for Tax Fairness: US Billionaires added $5.1 trillion to their fortunes since 2017. To put that in perspective, if that money went to the American people instead, every household would get $37,800.
That’s why if you flip the comparison and instead pit progressives against non-progressives, you see the same ‘advantage’ as when you pit moderates against non-moderates.
October 24, 2025 at 5:04 PM
That’s why if you flip the comparison and instead pit progressives against non-progressives, you see the same ‘advantage’ as when you pit moderates against non-moderates.
You can see what’s happening in this one chart.
The NYT's ‘Non-Moderate' group (bracketed on the right) is created by combining the ‘Funded Non-Moderate' (+0.4) and 'No PAC Funding' (-1.9) bars.
That massive -1.9 from non-competitive races is what's doing all the work, not moderation.
The NYT's ‘Non-Moderate' group (bracketed on the right) is created by combining the ‘Funded Non-Moderate' (+0.4) and 'No PAC Funding' (-1.9) bars.
That massive -1.9 from non-competitive races is what's doing all the work, not moderation.
October 24, 2025 at 4:26 PM
You can see what’s happening in this one chart.
The NYT's ‘Non-Moderate' group (bracketed on the right) is created by combining the ‘Funded Non-Moderate' (+0.4) and 'No PAC Funding' (-1.9) bars.
That massive -1.9 from non-competitive races is what's doing all the work, not moderation.
The NYT's ‘Non-Moderate' group (bracketed on the right) is created by combining the ‘Funded Non-Moderate' (+0.4) and 'No PAC Funding' (-1.9) bars.
That massive -1.9 from non-competitive races is what's doing all the work, not moderation.
Call this what it is: rank corruption.
Major corporations funding a president's vanity project is a textbook model for pay-to-play. Why else would tech giants, crypto firms, and defense contractors care about a 90,000 sq ft ballroom?
Major corporations funding a president's vanity project is a textbook model for pay-to-play. Why else would tech giants, crypto firms, and defense contractors care about a 90,000 sq ft ballroom?
October 23, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Call this what it is: rank corruption.
Major corporations funding a president's vanity project is a textbook model for pay-to-play. Why else would tech giants, crypto firms, and defense contractors care about a 90,000 sq ft ballroom?
Major corporations funding a president's vanity project is a textbook model for pay-to-play. Why else would tech giants, crypto firms, and defense contractors care about a 90,000 sq ft ballroom?
Other authoritarians at least tried to hide their corruption. Trump plasters it on the front page of The NYTimes.
We only learned about Imelda Marcos's shoe collection after anti-corruption protesters stormed the palace. Trump is out there showing us his loot and handing us the bill.
We only learned about Imelda Marcos's shoe collection after anti-corruption protesters stormed the palace. Trump is out there showing us his loot and handing us the bill.
October 21, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Other authoritarians at least tried to hide their corruption. Trump plasters it on the front page of The NYTimes.
We only learned about Imelda Marcos's shoe collection after anti-corruption protesters stormed the palace. Trump is out there showing us his loot and handing us the bill.
We only learned about Imelda Marcos's shoe collection after anti-corruption protesters stormed the palace. Trump is out there showing us his loot and handing us the bill.
The NYT piece is skeptical of academic data, asking for measures tied directly to voter perceptions.
This chart includes exactly that—the survey-based "Voter Perceptions" score (from the CES). It shows moving to the center has no effect on vote share, while the benefit of incumbency is clear.
This chart includes exactly that—the survey-based "Voter Perceptions" score (from the CES). It shows moving to the center has no effect on vote share, while the benefit of incumbency is clear.
October 20, 2025 at 10:17 PM
The NYT piece is skeptical of academic data, asking for measures tied directly to voter perceptions.
This chart includes exactly that—the survey-based "Voter Perceptions" score (from the CES). It shows moving to the center has no effect on vote share, while the benefit of incumbency is clear.
This chart includes exactly that—the survey-based "Voter Perceptions" score (from the CES). It shows moving to the center has no effect on vote share, while the benefit of incumbency is clear.
Since 2016, in competitive races, 21 moderate Democratic incumbents have lost their seats versus just 1 progressive.
In fact, progressive incumbents had a higher success rate (93.3%) than their moderate counterparts (83.6%).
In fact, progressive incumbents had a higher success rate (93.3%) than their moderate counterparts (83.6%).
October 20, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Since 2016, in competitive races, 21 moderate Democratic incumbents have lost their seats versus just 1 progressive.
In fact, progressive incumbents had a higher success rate (93.3%) than their moderate counterparts (83.6%).
In fact, progressive incumbents had a higher success rate (93.3%) than their moderate counterparts (83.6%).
Santos pardoned fraud conviction. Trump makes $1B from crypto while president. Corruption has toppled countless authoritarians. One way or another, it will be Trump’s and his allies downfall too. Trump may be brazen but voters aren’t blind. Anti-corruption is the path forward.
October 18, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Santos pardoned fraud conviction. Trump makes $1B from crypto while president. Corruption has toppled countless authoritarians. One way or another, it will be Trump’s and his allies downfall too. Trump may be brazen but voters aren’t blind. Anti-corruption is the path forward.
As the Supreme Court term begins, keep this framework in mind: Autocratic Legalism.
Instead of “rule of law” (law constrains the power), we get “rule by law” (law as a weapon for power).
Authoritarians usually have to install allies. Trump started his second term with that step already complete.
Instead of “rule of law” (law constrains the power), we get “rule by law” (law as a weapon for power).
Authoritarians usually have to install allies. Trump started his second term with that step already complete.
October 8, 2025 at 10:30 PM
As the Supreme Court term begins, keep this framework in mind: Autocratic Legalism.
Instead of “rule of law” (law constrains the power), we get “rule by law” (law as a weapon for power).
Authoritarians usually have to install allies. Trump started his second term with that step already complete.
Instead of “rule of law” (law constrains the power), we get “rule by law” (law as a weapon for power).
Authoritarians usually have to install allies. Trump started his second term with that step already complete.
Shutdown rules aren’t neutral. They favor agencies aligned with GOP priorities, while those aligned with Democratic priorities bear the brunt of furloughs.
Furlough Rates:
EPA: 89%
Dept. of Education: 86%
Dept. of Labor: ~75%
DHS / ICE / CBP: ~0%
Bad incentives → biased outcomes.
Furlough Rates:
EPA: 89%
Dept. of Education: 86%
Dept. of Labor: ~75%
DHS / ICE / CBP: ~0%
Bad incentives → biased outcomes.
October 1, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Shutdown rules aren’t neutral. They favor agencies aligned with GOP priorities, while those aligned with Democratic priorities bear the brunt of furloughs.
Furlough Rates:
EPA: 89%
Dept. of Education: 86%
Dept. of Labor: ~75%
DHS / ICE / CBP: ~0%
Bad incentives → biased outcomes.
Furlough Rates:
EPA: 89%
Dept. of Education: 86%
Dept. of Labor: ~75%
DHS / ICE / CBP: ~0%
Bad incentives → biased outcomes.
Poll after poll shows corruption is THE issue voters care about. And Jeffries goes out of his way to praise Adams, whose public corruption charges were dropped after Trump’s DOJ unceremoniously shut the case down?
Democrats have the winning hand right in front of them. Wild that they won’t play it.
Democrats have the winning hand right in front of them. Wild that they won’t play it.
September 29, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Poll after poll shows corruption is THE issue voters care about. And Jeffries goes out of his way to praise Adams, whose public corruption charges were dropped after Trump’s DOJ unceremoniously shut the case down?
Democrats have the winning hand right in front of them. Wild that they won’t play it.
Democrats have the winning hand right in front of them. Wild that they won’t play it.
A challenger to Jeffries in NY-8 is stepping up on a pro-worker, anti-corruption platform.
Running for Congress without party backing takes courage. Give him a look:
vancebforny8.com
@vancebnyc.bsky.social
Running for Congress without party backing takes courage. Give him a look:
vancebforny8.com
@vancebnyc.bsky.social
September 26, 2025 at 1:56 PM
A challenger to Jeffries in NY-8 is stepping up on a pro-worker, anti-corruption platform.
Running for Congress without party backing takes courage. Give him a look:
vancebforny8.com
@vancebnyc.bsky.social
Running for Congress without party backing takes courage. Give him a look:
vancebforny8.com
@vancebnyc.bsky.social
I’m starting to notice a trend in the polling data…
—Top Public Worry: Corruption
—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption
—Top fear: Corruption
—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”
It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.
—Top Public Worry: Corruption
—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption
—Top fear: Corruption
—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”
It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.
September 25, 2025 at 8:50 PM
I’m starting to notice a trend in the polling data…
—Top Public Worry: Corruption
—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption
—Top fear: Corruption
—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”
It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.
—Top Public Worry: Corruption
—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption
—Top fear: Corruption
—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”
It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.
Not sure what to make of this: The Chapman Survey of American Fears has found "corrupt government officials" to be the #1 fear (out of 85) for 9 years running.
It's wild that this consistently ranks above war, terrorism, and even "people I love dying." Not the same as most intense fear but still.
It's wild that this consistently ranks above war, terrorism, and even "people I love dying." Not the same as most intense fear but still.
September 24, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Not sure what to make of this: The Chapman Survey of American Fears has found "corrupt government officials" to be the #1 fear (out of 85) for 9 years running.
It's wild that this consistently ranks above war, terrorism, and even "people I love dying." Not the same as most intense fear but still.
It's wild that this consistently ranks above war, terrorism, and even "people I love dying." Not the same as most intense fear but still.
One thing I'd like to gently correct is that we confuse correlation with causation when interpreting the macro-level results. We discuss this at length in the paper and elsewhere, including the exact point he makes about the electorate being in a "more lefty mood than normal" in 2008.
August 21, 2025 at 1:26 AM
One thing I'd like to gently correct is that we confuse correlation with causation when interpreting the macro-level results. We discuss this at length in the paper and elsewhere, including the exact point he makes about the electorate being in a "more lefty mood than normal" in 2008.
Our argument isn't about running moderates vs. progressives. It's that the strategic imperative for Democrats is mobilizing registered Dems who stay home. Persuasion effects from ideology are marginal; wave elections happen when Dems mobilize. I'm glad Noah Smith outlined our actual argument:
August 21, 2025 at 1:26 AM
Our argument isn't about running moderates vs. progressives. It's that the strategic imperative for Democrats is mobilizing registered Dems who stay home. Persuasion effects from ideology are marginal; wave elections happen when Dems mobilize. I'm glad Noah Smith outlined our actual argument:
Some real cases from the FEC data:
89yo woman, Indianapolis: 7,532 donations, $68,666 total
84yo man, Ohio: 2,271 donations, $194,322 total
79yo woman, Montana: 3,177 donations, $77,402 total
That averages 10+ donations per day from the Indianapolis woman.
89yo woman, Indianapolis: 7,532 donations, $68,666 total
84yo man, Ohio: 2,271 donations, $194,322 total
79yo woman, Montana: 3,177 donations, $77,402 total
That averages 10+ donations per day from the Indianapolis woman.
August 20, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Some real cases from the FEC data:
89yo woman, Indianapolis: 7,532 donations, $68,666 total
84yo man, Ohio: 2,271 donations, $194,322 total
79yo woman, Montana: 3,177 donations, $77,402 total
That averages 10+ donations per day from the Indianapolis woman.
89yo woman, Indianapolis: 7,532 donations, $68,666 total
84yo man, Ohio: 2,271 donations, $194,322 total
79yo woman, Montana: 3,177 donations, $77,402 total
That averages 10+ donations per day from the Indianapolis woman.
Spam PACs are going all out before the new ActBlue rules kick in later this week. That last text squeezed 4 lies into 24 words, which is actually kind of impressive in its own way.
August 18, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Spam PACs are going all out before the new ActBlue rules kick in later this week. That last text squeezed 4 lies into 24 words, which is actually kind of impressive in its own way.
Some good news. ActBlue just announced major updates to crack down on deceptive fundraising. New rules ban impersonation, fake matches, and excessive spam. Big step in the right direction.
Shout out to Josh Nelson and everyone who has been advocating for these changes.
Shout out to Josh Nelson and everyone who has been advocating for these changes.
August 6, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Some good news. ActBlue just announced major updates to crack down on deceptive fundraising. New rules ban impersonation, fake matches, and excessive spam. Big step in the right direction.
Shout out to Josh Nelson and everyone who has been advocating for these changes.
Shout out to Josh Nelson and everyone who has been advocating for these changes.
This one I got today took things too far.
They need to keep Rick Steves’ name out of their dirty mouths. He’s how I show my dog Europe.
They need to keep Rick Steves’ name out of their dirty mouths. He’s how I show my dog Europe.
August 6, 2025 at 1:22 AM
This one I got today took things too far.
They need to keep Rick Steves’ name out of their dirty mouths. He’s how I show my dog Europe.
They need to keep Rick Steves’ name out of their dirty mouths. He’s how I show my dog Europe.