Thomas J Hayes
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thomasjhayes.bsky.social
Thomas J Hayes
@thomasjhayes.bsky.social
240 followers 380 following 6 posts

Associate Professor of Political Science at UConn. Director of the EcoHouse Learning Community.

Videos
Political science 47%
Economics 11%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Roger A. Pielke, Matthew Bunn, A. E. Dessler , and 23 more

cato.org
Cato Institute @cato.org · 6d
The US immigrant population generated more in taxes than they received in benefits from all levels of government every year from 1994 to 2023.

The Cato study provides the first-ever 30-year analysis of the fiscal effects of immigration on government budgets.

https://ow.ly/jy8a50Y8kM3

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

ntd.bsky.social
Nick Davis @ntd.bsky.social · 15d
one of the few things ive done academically that i think "actually" matters involves this graph. people who are bad neighbors -- who reject immigrants, people of a different race or religion as neighbors -- want strong (anti-democratic) leaders and army rule.

people who are good neighbors do not.

Reposted by Michael Barnett, Ben Barr, Daniel Kuehn , and 3 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 24d
New QJE for the minimum wage literature uses IRS data to study effects on small and medium size businesses. The effects seem…very good

academic.oup.com/qje/article/...
Who's Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns* Nirupama L Rao, Max Risch The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 141, Issue 1, February 2026, Pages 373-427, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaf053 Published: 10 December 2025 Article history V PDF • Split View 66 Cite P Permissions < Share V Abstract A common concern surrounding minimum wage policies is their impact on independent businesses, which are often feared to be less able to bear or pass on cost increases. We examine how these typically small and medium-size firms accommodate minimum wage increases along product and labor market margins using a matched owner-firm-worker panel data set drawn from the universe of U.S. tax records over a 10-year period, and using state minimum wage changes as identifying variation. We find that on average, firms in highly exposed industries do not substantially reduce employment-they do not lay off workers but moderately reduce part-time hiring. Instead, these firms are able to fully finance the new labor costs with new revenues, leaving average owner profits unchanged. Higher wage floors, however, forestall entry, particularly for less productive firms, reducing the number of independent firms operating in these industries by roughly 2%. Yet these industries do not shrink; instead, incumbent responses and strong positive selection among entrants reshape industries that rely heavily on low-wage workers, yielding fewer but more productive firms after the cost shock. We also take a worker-level perspective to examine how potentially vulnerable individuals are affected by minimum wage increases. Using panels of low-earning and young workers, we find that their average earnings rise substantially with the minimum wage, while they are no less likely to be employed. Worker transitions indicate that minimum wage increases boost retention and that worker reallocation from independent firms toward corporations buffers dis…

Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Daniel Ziblatt, Anna O. Law , and 20 more

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 28d
If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this:

America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.

What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵
Screenshot of a data visualization titled “The Cost of American Exceptionalism,” subtitled “What would change if the U.S. matched the OECD average?” The page explains that each card shows how outcomes would change if the U.S. matched the average of 31 peer democracies. Below, a section labeled “Economy & Inequality” displays eight cards comparing U.S. figures to OECD averages. Highlights include: +$19K per household per year in redistributed income and +$96K in redistributed wealth if the top 1% matched OECD shares; a 71% lower CEO-to-worker pay ratio (from 354× to 101×); 50 million more workers with union coverage; 26 million more people with health insurance; $2.1 trillion saved annually in healthcare spending; $691 less per person per year in prescription drug costs; and intergenerational economic mobility being twice as high. Each card shows the U.S. value alongside the OECD average.

Reposted by Will Jennings, Thomas J. Hayes, David Darmofal

today.yougov.com
YouGov America @today.yougov.com · Jan 7
Jan 7 poll of 2,223 U.S. adults (+/-2.4 points)
% who would support | oppose the U.S. using military force to take control of Greenland
U.S. adults 8% | 73%
Democrats 4% | 87%
Independents 6% | 73%
Republicans 15% | 60%
today.yougov.com/topics/trave...
YouGov survey results by political party for the question, Would you support or oppose the U.S. using military force to take control of Greenland?

Reposted by Christian E. Weller, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Mark Rice , and 1 more

brendannyhan.bsky.social
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · Jan 1
Every one of these deals exceeds the severity of the Clinton Foundation and Hunter Biden controversies by orders of magnitude. And there are already dozens, probably hundreds.

Reposted by Colin F. Camerer, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan , and 21 more

johnholbein1.bsky.social
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · Dec 25
DOGE was A LOT less likely to cancel contracts from companies that donated money to Republicans than companies that donated to Democrats.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

chenoweth.bsky.social
Erica Chenoweth @chenoweth.bsky.social · Nov 22
Join @stevelevitsky.bsky.social & me online, Monday 11/24 at 3:30pm ET, to talk about where we are in the US struggle for democracy. ash.harvard.edu/events/the-b...
The Breakdown with Erica Chenoweth and Steve Levitsky – Ash Center
Join Erica Chenoweth and Steven Levitsky for The Breakdown, a webinar series on the ongoing struggle for American democracy. Each month, Chenoweth and Levitsky will break down key developments, reflec...
ash.harvard.edu

Reposted by Erica Chenoweth, Thomas J. Hayes

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Nov 18
As Trump again ramps up attacks on judges as biased, consider: his own appointees rule against his admin 49% of the time. Republican appointees 65%. Reporters should ask: If the judiciary is biased, why do the judges he picked keep ruling against him?
Data visualization titled “Even Trump’s Own Judicial Appointees Rule Against His Administration Nearly Half the Time.” Top section shows 81 rulings against (49.1%) vs 84 for (50.9%) among Trump appointees. Middle section compares rulings by appointing party: Democratic appointees ruled against Trump 752 times vs 169 for; Republican appointees 232 against vs 126 for. Bottom section shows historical comparison - how other presidents’ appointees ruled on Trump cases: Biden appointees 252 against/46 for, Obama 368/91, Bush 62/23, Clinton 125/22, Reagan 88/19. Source: Federal Court Dockets from Courtlistener.com. Data from Jan 21, 2025 through Nov 11, 2025, lower federal courts only, Supreme Court not included.

Reposted by Cas Mudde, Anna O. Law, Ben H. Ansell , and 14 more

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Nov 14
Those claiming Dems should retreat on racial justice aren't hard-headed realists, they're pushing against the electoral tide rather than leaning into it. The story of Gen Z isn't about racist backlash or red-pilled young men. It's the most racially progressive generation in American history. 🧵
Racial Resentment Among White Americans by Birth Year and Demographics This figure presents the same four-panel layout (education, gender, geography, religion) but for White Americans from birth years 1940 to 2000. Education panel: A pronounced divide shows non-college Whites with substantially higher resentment across all cohorts, increasing sharply for older birth years. College-educated Whites rise more modestly but remain distinctly lower, especially among younger cohorts. Gender panel: Male and female trendlines rise together, with women slightly higher in mid-century cohorts. Younger cohorts of both genders start lower and climb with age. Geography panel: Regional lines separate clearly: the South is highest in resentment, followed by the Midwest. The West and Northeast show lower levels, with the Northeast consistently at the bottom. All regions slope upward toward older cohorts. Religion panel: Protestants show the highest resentment, peaking among mid-century cohorts. Catholics sit in the middle. Non-affiliated Whites show the lowest resentment, especially among younger respondents, with a small rise among mid-century generations. The figure notes CES 2024 data with GAM-smoothed trendlines.

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Jan W. Mueller, Alan Richardson , and 4 more

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Nov 11
Kind of wild that while food assistance was withheld from millions of families, one Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) saw his net worth grow more this year than the entire SNAP budget. And the YTD gains of the other four richest men would’ve fully covered salaries for all 2M federal employees.
Table showing the five richest men in the U.S from Bloombergs billionaire list ., all in technology. Elon Musk tops the list with a net worth of $461B and a year-to-date gain of $28.2B. Larry Ellison is second at $300B with a $107B YTD gain. Jeff Bezos has $268B (+$29.5B YTD), Larry Page $250B (+$81.9B YTD), and Sergey Brin $234B (+$75.5B YTD). Each row also lists last-day change, country (all United States), and industry (all Technology).

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

jotatx.bsky.social
Json Momoa @jotatx.bsky.social · Oct 9
@chrischirp.bsky.social is doing a fantastic work here
www.trumpactiontracker.info

Reposted by Joanne Spetz, Efrén O. Pérez, Aaron Sojourner , and 2 more

johnholbein1.bsky.social
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · Aug 8
Look at how Trump's tariffs are affecting retail prices.

Reposted by Catherine C. Eckel, Thomas J. Hayes

conradhackett.bsky.social
Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · Jul 14
The balance of public opinion is against abortion being legal in only one state, Arkansas.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
In 34 states and D.C., more people say abortion generally should be legal than say it generally should be illegal. For example, in the District of Columbia, 81% of adults say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Support for legal abortion also stands at about 75% or higher in several New England states, including Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Connecticut. Meanwhile, people in Arkansas are more likely to say abortion should generally be illegal (57%) rather than legal (41%). Arkansas is the only state where the balance of public opinion is against abortion by a statistically significant margin. In 15 states, the shares saying abortion should be legal and saying it should be illegal are not significantly different once the margins of sampling error in each state are taken into account.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

claireadida.bsky.social
Claire Adida @claireadida.bsky.social · Jul 4
Trump bill is the second most unpopular in recent history. GOP don’t care.

via @gelliottmorris.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

albertsonb2.bsky.social
Bethany Albertson @albertsonb2.bsky.social · Jul 2
Sharing this one because it should be a bigger story-

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/u...
Pardoned Jan. 6 Rioter Who Threatened Police Joins Justice Dept.
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Christian E. Weller, Michael Jones‐Correa, Banu Özkazanç‐Pan , and 2 more

chrismurphyct.bsky.social
Chris Murphy @chrismurphyct.bsky.social · Jun 30
Ok, so Republicans just introduced a 900 page bill none of them have read. But my team is going through it line by line and on this 🧵you can see the hidden provisions we found. Will update all day.

1/ NEW Medicaid cuts, so now 17 million - instead of 16M - lose health care.

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

mirandayaver.bsky.social
Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · Jun 30
To top it all off, as I wrote in @medpagetoday.bsky.social, the bill goes against the federalism principles that Republicans have historically espoused, literally penalizing states for offering more generous health coverage with their own state funds. www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/seco...
Opinion | Will States' Rights Go the Way of Medicaid Funding?
Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' bolsters federal power
www.medpagetoday.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

mirandayaver.bsky.social
Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · Jun 30
Now let’s talk behavioral health. The opioid epidemic ravaged Appalachia (where I live, and which largely voted for Trump), and Medicaid is critical lifeline for people requiring treatment for mental health and substance use disorders, as I write on in @statnews.com www.statnews.com/2025/06/12/m...
Medicaid cuts would devastate mental health, substance use treatment services in red states
Though behavioral health conditions do not discriminate between Democrats and Republicans, the Medicaid cuts may be particularly damaging for residents of red states.
www.statnews.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

mirandayaver.bsky.social
Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · Jun 30
As Republicans expedite their efforts to rip health coverage from millions of Americans, re-upping my writing on the not so-beautiful bill. First, my piece in The Hill w/ @mshepruralpolitics.bsky.social on harms to rural (conservative) communities (ex: hospital closures). thehill.com/opinion/heal...
Medicaid cuts will harm rural Republican communities most
Trump’s budget will actively harm the health and incomes of rural communities and Republican voters, well beyond those who themselves are enrolled in Medicaid.
thehill.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

gelliottmorris.com
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · May 11
One of the tough things about covering Trump’s 2nd term is that he is breaking so many laws & norms that when you cover them each on their own, you come off as an anti-Trump Dem pundit w “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” But when you list it all out things indeed look pretty alarming

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

nycsouthpaw.bsky.social
southpaw @nycsouthpaw.bsky.social · May 9
This is America.
Maydee, still confronting the officers, says "Where is the warrant?" Officer Lugo, according to his nameplate, says "Ma'am we are trying our best but they are federal." Morales again asks for the warrant. "They're federal." "They still need a warrant." Another officer, frustrated, says "They don't need a warrant." Finally, one of them tells the truth. Due process is not a matter they're concerned with.

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach, Thomas J. Hayes, Daphne Halikiopoulou

dziblatt.bsky.social
Daniel Ziblatt @dziblatt.bsky.social · May 8
Appeasement, as Churchill warned, is like feeding a crocodile and hoping to be the last one eaten.

Levitsky, Way, and me today in New York Times

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/o...
Opinion | No One Has Ever Defeated Autocracy From the Sidelines
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

sky.skymarchini.net
Sky Marchini @sky.skymarchini.net · May 7
Again: he is not going to back down from tariffs because the imports collapse is an explicitly good thing to him. It’s the whole goal of the policy.

He sees the number of containers going to zero and thinks *that is a success* because it means we’re not buying things from those foreigners anymore.
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · May 7
Trump: "We were losing a trillion dollars a year. Now we're not losing anything, you know? That's the way I look at it. We were losing with China on trade a trillion dollars a year."

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

jonathancohn.bsky.social
Jonathan Cohn @jonathancohn.bsky.social · May 8
The US government is pumping right-wing conspiracy theories into other countries. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Embattled Voice of America to use newsfeed from hard-right network
One America News will now provide news and video to government-funded organization
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Peter A. Stott, Erle C. Ellis, Timon McPhearson , and 16 more

bobkopp.net
Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · May 7
There’s so much happening right now, I thought I’d put together a running thread on the dismantling of #climate and research and knowledge infrastructure in the United States 🧵

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

jamellebouie.net
jamelle @jamellebouie.net · May 1
they are literal segregationists apnews.com/article/scho...
The Justice Department ended a decades-old school desegregation order. Others are expected to fall
The Justice Department is lifting a school desegregation order in Louisiana dating to the Civil Rights Movement, calling its continued existence a “historical wrong” and suggesting that others across ...
apnews.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

dandrezner.bsky.social
Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · Apr 29
“86% oppose the United States trying to take control of Canada. Eighty percent oppose Trump serving a third term, 76% oppose trying to take control of Greenland and 66% oppose sending U.S. citizens to foreign prisons.” abcnews.go.com/Politics/ame...
Most Americans oppose Trump 3rd term, taking control of Greenland and Canada: POLL
The poll finds that Americans widely oppose the U.S. trying to take control of Canada and Greenland, sending U.S. citizens to foreign prisons and a third Trump term.
abcnews.go.com

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

hshierholz.bsky.social
Heidi Shierholz @hshierholz.bsky.social · Apr 28
Welp, the federal minimum wage is now officially a poverty wage (as in, a full-time worker earning the federal minimum wage gets paid less than the poverty line for a single person). www.epi.org/blog/the-fed...

Reposted by Thomas J. Hayes

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Apr 25
Trump's ActBlue attacks serve two goals: Cripple Dems' small-dollar machine (where GOP mega-donors can't compete) while forcing Democrats deeper into the arms of their own billionaires and mega-donors. Not just about winning—it's about kneecapping Dem candidates who refuse to bow to elite interests.