Paul Johnson
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Paul Johnson
@paulrjohnson.net
1.6K followers 780 following 750 posts

Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him

Website: https://paulrjohnson.net
Github: https://github.com/paulj1989

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Paul E. Johnson is an American historian and professor emeritus at University of South Carolina.

Source: Wikipedia
Philosophy 17%
History 15%
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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Nov 11
I recently wrote a blog post about the impact of clubs’ financial resources on football outcomes.

paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...

The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.
Analysing Money’s Effect on Football Using Multilevel Regression – Paul Johnson
What if I told you that we can use statistics to laugh at the silly football teams too?
paulrjohnson.net

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 5d
Yer da places bets on Baller League

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Christian Odendahl, Steve Peers , and 24 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 6d
Mamdani: "New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and as of tonight, led by an immigrant."

Reposted by Justin H. Kirkland, Paul E. Johnson

ozerthinking.bsky.social
Adam L. Ozer @ozerthinking.bsky.social · 11d
Do legislators write their own email newsletters? How do they determine what content to include?

I had the opportunity to chat with former MEP @richardcorbett.bsky.social and learn from a politician's perspective on communicating with constituents.

adamlozer.github.io/blog/posts/2...
Adam L. Ozer, Ph.D. - A Reporting Back Mechanism: A Chat with Former MEP Richard Corbett About E-Newsletters and Constituent Communications
adamlozer.github.io

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 13d
Yes who is to say whether losing your mind over non-white people on your television is racist.
itvpeston.bsky.social Peston @itvpeston.bsky.social · 14d
Is the Reform MP who says she’s driven mad by TV adverts full of Black & Asian people a racist or realist? How many migrants would the Tories expel? & should the UK be selling fighter jets to Türkiye?

Join LIVE at 9PM on X & YouTube or on ITV1 at 1045PM 📺

#Peston

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Kim L. Scheppele, Daniela Gabor , and 9 more

itvpeston.bsky.social
Peston @itvpeston.bsky.social · 14d
Is the Reform MP who says she’s driven mad by TV adverts full of Black & Asian people a racist or realist? How many migrants would the Tories expel? & should the UK be selling fighter jets to Türkiye?

Join LIVE at 9PM on X & YouTube or on ITV1 at 1045PM 📺

#Peston

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d
Getting g checked in Penge because I am the oldest man in human history

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d
I regret to inform you that this person is Natalie

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d
It is extremely deranged to get the porridge from the McDonald's breakfast menu, right?

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d
The rough and tumble, largely violence-free days of British football in the 80s.
uglygame.bsky.social Martin Calladine @uglygame.bsky.social · 24d
Democracy cannot survive if people like Jenrick, who is prepared to lie continually and without compunction, can prosper.

Football in the 80s was frequently violent and, especially in the first part of the decade, awash with racism. These were not halcyon days, especially for non-white Britons.
Robert Jenrick @RobertJenrick Follow Something has fundamentally changed in Birmingham. And Britain, too, has changed with it. Consider football: the rough and tumble of our national game is nothing new for the West Midlands. Growing up in the eighties, my Dad took me to more than a few matches at Villa Park in the away end. The language, chants, and antics were - at times - less than well-mannered. But it was largely good-natured fun. Where there was violence, the police put a quick but firm end to it. Such was the rhythm of British life. The same men and women worked together all week, turning up and supporting different teams on a Saturday.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 24d
Rich interview with one very political science question: can Green parties emphasize economic inequality without losing their reputation on climate. Our work on the German Greens shows: yes. More emphasis on redistribution does not weaken perceived competence on climate and increases overall support

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

uglygame.bsky.social
Martin Calladine @uglygame.bsky.social · 24d
Democracy cannot survive if people like Jenrick, who is prepared to lie continually and without compunction, can prosper.

Football in the 80s was frequently violent and, especially in the first part of the decade, awash with racism. These were not halcyon days, especially for non-white Britons.
Robert Jenrick @RobertJenrick Follow Something has fundamentally changed in Birmingham. And Britain, too, has changed with it. Consider football: the rough and tumble of our national game is nothing new for the West Midlands. Growing up in the eighties, my Dad took me to more than a few matches at Villa Park in the away end. The language, chants, and antics were - at times - less than well-mannered. But it was largely good-natured fun. Where there was violence, the police put a quick but firm end to it. Such was the rhythm of British life. The same men and women worked together all week, turning up and supporting different teams on a Saturday.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

tomusher.bsky.social
Tom Usher @tomusher.bsky.social · 24d
My first article for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social is about what Ricky Hatton’s death meant to me personally

www.newstatesman.com/culture/spor...
The ballad of Ricky Hatton
After the champion’s death, we must change how we treat the vulnerable
www.newstatesman.com

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 24d
12 days to go and clearly a good time to share this again.
While it looks like the PVV is going to do worse than in the last election (although let's not forget a lot of movement in the last week in 2023), taken together far-right parties might do as well or better than in 2023.
tabouchadi.bsky.social Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · Sep 10
Given that international pundits are starting to pay attention to the Dutch election: there is more than one far-right party in the Netherlands. If you want to assess how the Dutch far right is doing, you can't just look at the PVV but you have to include FvD and JA21.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

theguardian.com
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 25d
Ministers to explore reversing ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending UK match after PM’s criticism – politics live
Ministers to explore reversing ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending UK match after PM’s criticism – politics live
Fans of the Israeli football team will not be allowed to attend the Europa League match at Aston Villa on 6 November owing to safety concerns Good morning. Yesterday it emerged that fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv will not be allowed to attend the Europa League match at Aston Villa on 6 November owing to safety concerns. The decision was taken by Birmingham’s safety advisory group, based on advice from the West Midlands police, who said the match would be “high risk” based on “current intelligence and previous incidents, ­including ­violent clashes and hate crime offences that occurred during the 2024 Uefa Europa League match between Ajax and ­Maccabi Tel Aviv in Amsterdam”. There is more on the announcement here. The decision prompted widespread condemnation from political leaders. Keir Starmer said: This is the wrong decision. We will not tolerate antisemitism on our streets. This is a national disgrace. How have things come to this? A serious mistake by WM Police. You don’t tackle antisemitism by banning its victims. This decision must be reversed. From the moment that the match was announced, it was clear that there were latent safety risks that even our capable security and police authorities would not be able to fully manage. With so much hostility and uncertainty around the match, it was only right to take drastic measures. As Israel continues its assault on Gaza, killing thousands and devastating civilian infrastructure, sporting fixtures involving Israeli teams cannot be separated from the wider political context. Hosting such teams sends a message of normalisation and indifference to mass atrocities. [The decision is] just completely and utterly unacceptable, and the prime minister has said we will do everything we possibly can to resolve this issue. It’s an operational issue for the police, and government doesn’t get involved in operational issues for the police. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

clapifyoulikeme.favrd.social
Mrs. Detective Pikajew, Esq. @clapifyoulikeme.favrd.social · 25d
I believe Zohran should condemn Hasan because I believe all streamers should be condemned

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

annieknk.bsky.social
Annie Kelly @annieknk.bsky.social · Sep 28
With this ringing endorsement, if you'd like to understand what deeply evil nonsense the literal President of the United States is promoting now please do listen! on.soundcloud.com/0SJT1Mcqx8ks...

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
Ipsos in the UK @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social · Sep 28
NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos

📉22% is the lowest we’ve recorded for Labour since June 2009
📉14% is the lowest VI share we’ve ever seen (since 1976) for the Conservatives
Headline voting intention: September 2025 Reform UK 34% Labour 22% Conservative 14% Lib Dems 12% Green Party 12% Other 6% Reform lead = +12

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 25
It is so incredibly grim that this is happening, that folks don't seem to believe it is happening (or do not appreciate the extent), and that Labour have been so weak in their response.
sundersays.bsky.social Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · Sep 25
I have had a large number of people say they simply did not understand the extent without posting the actual examples. Hence my approach to doing so

It remains the case that compelling evidence of just how much we are tolerating has yet to wake up those with actual responsibility and power yo act.
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · Sep 24
Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Paul E. Johnson

sundersays.bsky.social
Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · Sep 25
I have had a large number of people say they simply did not understand the extent without posting the actual examples. Hence my approach to doing so

It remains the case that compelling evidence of just how much we are tolerating has yet to wake up those with actual responsibility and power yo act.
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · Sep 24
Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.
amrk.bsky.social Amrk @amrk.bsky.social · Sep 24
Also frankly I am quite desperate! A party that’s at best ambivalent on the question of whether I’m English and wants to deport my friends is 9 points ahead in the polls and the current leader is floundering and visibly out of his depth!

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 25
It drives me insane that no one seems to be able to make a case for the North without demonizing London. I think everyone, including a lot of ordinary folks in London, could benefit from lifting up some of the big cities up North so they can compete with London.
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · Sep 24
Burnham’s positioning in the NS and Telegraph is essentially “I will continue to deny the constraints like Keir Starmer, while being even more explicitly hostile to London and the South, where a majority of parliamentary seats are”. Hard to see how that works well for Labour.
michaeljsc.bsky.social Michael @michaeljsc.bsky.social · Sep 24
not enthused by the Burnham Manifesto as set out here archive.is/9ylaW

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

stephenkb.bsky.social
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · Sep 24
Burnham’s positioning in the NS and Telegraph is essentially “I will continue to deny the constraints like Keir Starmer, while being even more explicitly hostile to London and the South, where a majority of parliamentary seats are”. Hard to see how that works well for Labour.
michaeljsc.bsky.social Michael @michaeljsc.bsky.social · Sep 24
not enthused by the Burnham Manifesto as set out here archive.is/9ylaW
archive.is

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 23
Southampton Football Club
joemuggs.bsky.social The Ineffable Horror of Joe Muggs @joemuggs.bsky.social · Sep 22
What’s the most Tory-coded thing you actively love?

Me: Essex. Elgar. Country pubs.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson, Matthew Kelly, Catherine J. Frieman

joemuggs.bsky.social
The Ineffable Horror of Joe Muggs @joemuggs.bsky.social · Sep 22
What’s the most Tory-coded thing you actively love?

Me: Essex. Elgar. Country pubs.

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Paul E. Johnson, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Reposted by Tim Bale, Paul E. Johnson

gilesyb.bsky.social
Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · Sep 18
"the hard data suggests that the largest of the UK’s very real problems are no more being caused by mass immigration than they are by a group of charity fundraisers rowing past Great Yarmouth"

on.ft.com/3IsyVVu

@timharford.ft.com with his facts and reasonableness
The UK’s problems aren’t caused by immigration
It’s not hard to see how so many came to worry about the issue. But the data isn’t there
on.ft.com

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 17
That's the one! Cheers.

paulrjohnson.net
Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 17
What is the name of the bare bones #rstats package that replicates a lot of dplyr functionality? I've completely forgotten what it is called (and I am hoping I didn't make it up in my head).

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

casmudde.bsky.social
Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · Sep 16
“If you would look away from the words of Charlie Kirk, from what else would you look away?”

Ta-Nehisi Coates nailes it again.
Charlie Kirk, Redeemed: A Political Class Finds Its Lost Cause
By ignoring the rhetoric and actions of the Turning Point USA founder, pundits and politicians are sanitizing his legacy.
www.vanityfair.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Richard S.J. Tol, Dorothy Bishop , and 10 more

zoegrunewald.bsky.social
Zoë Grünewald @zoegrunewald.bsky.social · Sep 16
Kemi Badenoch refusing to acknowledge that Tommy Robinson is "far-right", now on LBC, and refusing to condemn Elon Musk's words. In fact she says what Musk said *isn't* incitement. So what would be incitement then? How violent would his words have to be before he was deemed a threat to this country?

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Brendan Nyhan, Jon Green , and 2 more