Paul Johnson
@paulrjohnson.net
Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him
Website: https://paulrjohnson.net
Github: https://github.com/paulj1989
Website: https://paulrjohnson.net
Github: https://github.com/paulj1989
Pinned
Paul Johnson
@paulrjohnson.net
· Nov 11
Analysing Money’s Effect on Football Using Multilevel Regression – Paul Johnson
What if I told you that we can use statistics to laugh at the silly football teams too?
paulrjohnson.net
I recently wrote a blog post about the impact of clubs’ financial resources on football outcomes.
paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...
The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.
paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...
The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Mamdani: "New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and as of tonight, led by an immigrant."
November 5, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Mamdani: "New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and as of tonight, led by an immigrant."
Yer da places bets on Baller League
November 5, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Yer da places bets on Baller League
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Do legislators write their own email newsletters? How do they determine what content to include?
I had the opportunity to chat with former MEP @richardcorbett.bsky.social and learn from a politician's perspective on communicating with constituents.
adamlozer.github.io/blog/posts/2...
I had the opportunity to chat with former MEP @richardcorbett.bsky.social and learn from a politician's perspective on communicating with constituents.
adamlozer.github.io/blog/posts/2...
Adam L. Ozer, Ph.D. - A Reporting Back Mechanism: A Chat with Former MEP Richard Corbett About E-Newsletters and Constituent Communications
adamlozer.github.io
October 30, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Do legislators write their own email newsletters? How do they determine what content to include?
I had the opportunity to chat with former MEP @richardcorbett.bsky.social and learn from a politician's perspective on communicating with constituents.
adamlozer.github.io/blog/posts/2...
I had the opportunity to chat with former MEP @richardcorbett.bsky.social and learn from a politician's perspective on communicating with constituents.
adamlozer.github.io/blog/posts/2...
Yes who is to say whether losing your mind over non-white people on your television is racist.
Is the Reform MP who says she’s driven mad by TV adverts full of Black & Asian people a racist or realist? How many migrants would the Tories expel? & should the UK be selling fighter jets to Türkiye?
Join LIVE at 9PM on X & YouTube or on ITV1 at 1045PM 📺
#Peston
Join LIVE at 9PM on X & YouTube or on ITV1 at 1045PM 📺
#Peston
October 28, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Yes who is to say whether losing your mind over non-white people on your television is racist.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Getting g checked in Penge because I am the oldest man in human history
October 18, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Getting g checked in Penge because I am the oldest man in human history
It is extremely deranged to get the porridge from the McDonald's breakfast menu, right?
October 18, 2025 at 9:33 AM
It is extremely deranged to get the porridge from the McDonald's breakfast menu, right?
The rough and tumble, largely violence-free days of British football in the 80s.
Democracy cannot survive if people like Jenrick, who is prepared to lie continually and without compunction, can prosper.
Football in the 80s was frequently violent and, especially in the first part of the decade, awash with racism. These were not halcyon days, especially for non-white Britons.
Football in the 80s was frequently violent and, especially in the first part of the decade, awash with racism. These were not halcyon days, especially for non-white Britons.
October 18, 2025 at 9:12 AM
The rough and tumble, largely violence-free days of British football in the 80s.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
My first article for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social is about what Ricky Hatton’s death meant to me personally
www.newstatesman.com/culture/spor...
www.newstatesman.com/culture/spor...
The ballad of Ricky Hatton
After the champion’s death, we must change how we treat the vulnerable
www.newstatesman.com
October 18, 2025 at 7:42 AM
My first article for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social is about what Ricky Hatton’s death meant to me personally
www.newstatesman.com/culture/spor...
www.newstatesman.com/culture/spor...
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Rich interview with one very political science question: can Green parties emphasize economic inequality without losing their reputation on climate. Our work on the German Greens shows: yes. More emphasis on redistribution does not weaken perceived competence on climate and increases overall support
Lower bills.
Fund the NHS.
Invest in our communities.
My long form conversation with @lewisgoodall.com 👇🏼
youtu.be/j8hiBI6T_24?...
Fund the NHS.
Invest in our communities.
My long form conversation with @lewisgoodall.com 👇🏼
youtu.be/j8hiBI6T_24?...
Zack Polanski on populism, patriotism and poverty
YouTube video by The News Agents
youtu.be
October 18, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Rich interview with one very political science question: can Green parties emphasize economic inequality without losing their reputation on climate. Our work on the German Greens shows: yes. More emphasis on redistribution does not weaken perceived competence on climate and increases overall support
Reposted by Paul Johnson
12 days to go and clearly a good time to share this again.
While it looks like the PVV is going to do worse than in the last election (although let's not forget a lot of movement in the last week in 2023), taken together far-right parties might do as well or better than in 2023.
While it looks like the PVV is going to do worse than in the last election (although let's not forget a lot of movement in the last week in 2023), taken together far-right parties might do as well or better than in 2023.
Given that international pundits are starting to pay attention to the Dutch election: there is more than one far-right party in the Netherlands. If you want to assess how the Dutch far right is doing, you can't just look at the PVV but you have to include FvD and JA21.
October 17, 2025 at 9:26 AM
12 days to go and clearly a good time to share this again.
While it looks like the PVV is going to do worse than in the last election (although let's not forget a lot of movement in the last week in 2023), taken together far-right parties might do as well or better than in 2023.
While it looks like the PVV is going to do worse than in the last election (although let's not forget a lot of movement in the last week in 2023), taken together far-right parties might do as well or better than in 2023.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
This is absurd. If supporters of an English football club went to another country, committed violent hate crimes and public order offences, and the police in a subsequent country decided they couldn't be doing with it, the Prime Minister and the Leader Of The Opposition would not be caping for them.
October 17, 2025 at 8:02 AM
This is absurd. If supporters of an English football club went to another country, committed violent hate crimes and public order offences, and the police in a subsequent country decided they couldn't be doing with it, the Prime Minister and the Leader Of The Opposition would not be caping for them.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
I believe Zohran should condemn Hasan because I believe all streamers should be condemned
October 16, 2025 at 11:28 PM
I believe Zohran should condemn Hasan because I believe all streamers should be condemned
Reposted by Paul Johnson
With this ringing endorsement, if you'd like to understand what deeply evil nonsense the literal President of the United States is promoting now please do listen! on.soundcloud.com/0SJT1Mcqx8ks...
September 28, 2025 at 8:21 AM
With this ringing endorsement, if you'd like to understand what deeply evil nonsense the literal President of the United States is promoting now please do listen! on.soundcloud.com/0SJT1Mcqx8ks...
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Reducing the numbers of people coming to work and study in the UK will turn this around any second now.
NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos
📉22% is the lowest we’ve recorded for Labour since June 2009
📉14% is the lowest VI share we’ve ever seen (since 1976) for the Conservatives
📉22% is the lowest we’ve recorded for Labour since June 2009
📉14% is the lowest VI share we’ve ever seen (since 1976) for the Conservatives
September 28, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Reducing the numbers of people coming to work and study in the UK will turn this around any second now.
It is so incredibly grim that this is happening, that folks don't seem to believe it is happening (or do not appreciate the extent), and that Labour have been so weak in their response.
I have had a large number of people say they simply did not understand the extent without posting the actual examples. Hence my approach to doing so
It remains the case that compelling evidence of just how much we are tolerating has yet to wake up those with actual responsibility and power yo act.
It remains the case that compelling evidence of just how much we are tolerating has yet to wake up those with actual responsibility and power yo act.
Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.
September 25, 2025 at 9:29 AM
It is so incredibly grim that this is happening, that folks don't seem to believe it is happening (or do not appreciate the extent), and that Labour have been so weak in their response.
It drives me insane that no one seems to be able to make a case for the North without demonizing London. I think everyone, including a lot of ordinary folks in London, could benefit from lifting up some of the big cities up North so they can compete with London.
Burnham’s positioning in the NS and Telegraph is essentially “I will continue to deny the constraints like Keir Starmer, while being even more explicitly hostile to London and the South, where a majority of parliamentary seats are”. Hard to see how that works well for Labour.
not enthused by the Burnham Manifesto as set out here archive.is/9ylaW
September 25, 2025 at 9:14 AM
It drives me insane that no one seems to be able to make a case for the North without demonizing London. I think everyone, including a lot of ordinary folks in London, could benefit from lifting up some of the big cities up North so they can compete with London.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Excited to announce the publication of my article in Comparative Political Studies on how crises shape the ideological legitimation strategies of authoritarian regimes. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
September 8, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Excited to announce the publication of my article in Comparative Political Studies on how crises shape the ideological legitimation strategies of authoritarian regimes. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Southampton Football Club
What’s the most Tory-coded thing you actively love?
Me: Essex. Elgar. Country pubs.
Me: Essex. Elgar. Country pubs.
September 23, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Southampton Football Club
Reposted by Paul Johnson
Exactly this. If the Democrats win, they have to do more than just govern: they have to make sure that backsliding can never happen again. That will take more than just tinkering around the edges, otherwise there will be another Trump in the future.
September 18, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Exactly this. If the Democrats win, they have to do more than just govern: they have to make sure that backsliding can never happen again. That will take more than just tinkering around the edges, otherwise there will be another Trump in the future.
Reposted by Paul Johnson
"the hard data suggests that the largest of the UK’s very real problems are no more being caused by mass immigration than they are by a group of charity fundraisers rowing past Great Yarmouth"
on.ft.com/3IsyVVu
@timharford.ft.com with his facts and reasonableness
on.ft.com/3IsyVVu
@timharford.ft.com with his facts and reasonableness
The UK’s problems aren’t caused by immigration
It’s not hard to see how so many came to worry about the issue. But the data isn’t there
on.ft.com
September 18, 2025 at 5:34 AM
"the hard data suggests that the largest of the UK’s very real problems are no more being caused by mass immigration than they are by a group of charity fundraisers rowing past Great Yarmouth"
on.ft.com/3IsyVVu
@timharford.ft.com with his facts and reasonableness
on.ft.com/3IsyVVu
@timharford.ft.com with his facts and reasonableness
What is the name of the bare bones #rstats package that replicates a lot of dplyr functionality? I've completely forgotten what it is called (and I am hoping I didn't make it up in my head).
September 17, 2025 at 6:57 PM
What is the name of the bare bones #rstats package that replicates a lot of dplyr functionality? I've completely forgotten what it is called (and I am hoping I didn't make it up in my head).
Reposted by Paul Johnson
The cowardice and complacency of so much of the UK political class in the face of what is both an obvious moral evil and a serious socio-political threat is as discrediting as it is dispiriting
Kemi Badenoch refusing to acknowledge that Tommy Robinson is "far-right", now on LBC, and refusing to condemn Elon Musk's words. In fact she says what Musk said *isn't* incitement. So what would be incitement then? How violent would his words have to be before he was deemed a threat to this country?
September 16, 2025 at 9:52 PM
The cowardice and complacency of so much of the UK political class in the face of what is both an obvious moral evil and a serious socio-political threat is as discrediting as it is dispiriting
Reposted by Paul Johnson
This is outstanding. And, while research doesn’t get much of a hearing these days on identity issues, everything in it is consistent with piles of research. Anti-racism norms don’t drop from the sky. They are built and buttressed by elites drawing red lines. They can be eroded when elites don’t.
superb column from @stephenkb.bsky.social
“racism does not diminish through rising GDP but through the willingness of politicians to argue against it….”
www.ft.com/content/fbbd...
“racism does not diminish through rising GDP but through the willingness of politicians to argue against it….”
www.ft.com/content/fbbd...
Starmer and Badenoch are handling the far-right march all wrong
A look back to the days of Enoch Powell suggests a better model
www.ft.com
September 16, 2025 at 5:49 PM
This is outstanding. And, while research doesn’t get much of a hearing these days on identity issues, everything in it is consistent with piles of research. Anti-racism norms don’t drop from the sky. They are built and buttressed by elites drawing red lines. They can be eroded when elites don’t.