Paul E. Johnson | Lightnews

Paul Johnson

@paulrjohnson.net

1.6K followers 780 following 750 posts

Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him

Website: https://paulrjohnson.net
Github: https://github.com/paulj1989

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Paul E. Johnson is an American historian and professor emeritus at University of South Carolina.

Source: Wikipedia

Philosophy 17%

History 15%

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Nov 11

I recently wrote a blog post about the impact of clubs’ financial resources on football outcomes.

paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...

The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.

Analysing Money’s Effect on Football Using Multilevel Regression – Paul Johnson

What if I told you that we can use statistics to laugh at the silly football teams too?

paulrjohnson.net

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 1h

Perhaps you'd like to subscribe to the New York Times, though?

Reposted by Steve Peers, Paul E. Johnson

Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 1h

Net zero is one of the many areas where commentators are out-of-touch with public opinion in Britain. There is still broad support for cutting carbon emissions - except from among Reform supporters, who are the outliers.

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 1h

🧵/ How far does the public support net zero?

Support: 60%
Oppose: 25%

Net support by party
Green: +81
Lib Dem: +67
Lab: +64
Con: +11
Reform: -44

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 6d

Yer da places bets on Baller League

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Christian Odendahl, Steve Peers , and 24 more Anna O. Law, Christian Odendahl, Steve Peers, Rosemary A. Joyce, Elizabeth Stokoe, American Library Association, Sebastián Roché, Paul E. Johnson, Paul Goldstein, Sibylle Gollac, Valerie Mueller, Robin Celikates, John Collins, Jonathan Hopkin, Gerald Friedman, Stacy D. VanDeveer, Joanna Tai, Diane Marie Amann, Patrick Meier, Simon Lester, Christina Pagel, Albin Wagener, Pádua Fernandes, Émilien Ruiz, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Roos Vonk, Lukas Parker

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 6d

Mamdani: "New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and as of tonight, led by an immigrant."

Reposted by Justin H. Kirkland, Paul E. Johnson

Adam L. Ozer @ozerthinking.bsky.social · 11d

Do legislators write their own email newsletters? How do they determine what content to include?

I had the opportunity to chat with former MEP @richardcorbett.bsky.social and learn from a politician's perspective on communicating with constituents.

adamlozer.github.io/blog/posts/2...

Adam L. Ozer, Ph.D. - A Reporting Back Mechanism: A Chat with Former MEP Richard Corbett About E-Newsletters and Constituent Communications

adamlozer.github.io

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 14d

Yes who is to say whether losing your mind over non-white people on your television is racist.

Peston @itvpeston.bsky.social · 14d

Is the Reform MP who says she’s driven mad by TV adverts full of Black & Asian people a racist or realist? How many migrants would the Tories expel? & should the UK be selling fighter jets to Türkiye?

Join LIVE at 9PM on X & YouTube or on ITV1 at 1045PM 📺

#Peston

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Kim L. Scheppele, Daniela Gabor , and 9 more Jonathan Portes, Kim L. Scheppele, Daniela Gabor, Ben H. Ansell, Will Jennings, Paul E. Johnson, Anand Menon, John Foot, Laurent Pech, Miranda J. Lubbers, Ben Rosamond, Tarik Abou‐Chadi

Peston @itvpeston.bsky.social · 14d

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d

Getting g checked in Penge because I am the oldest man in human history

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 23d

I regret to inform you that this person is Natalie

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 24d

It is extremely deranged to get the porridge from the McDonald's breakfast menu, right?

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 24d

The rough and tumble, largely violence-free days of British football in the 80s.

Martin Calladine @uglygame.bsky.social · 24d

Democracy cannot survive if people like Jenrick, who is prepared to lie continually and without compunction, can prosper.

Football in the 80s was frequently violent and, especially in the first part of the decade, awash with racism. These were not halcyon days, especially for non-white Britons.

Robert Jenrick

@RobertJenrick

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Something has fundamentally changed in Birmingham. And Britain, too, has changed with it.

Consider football: the rough and tumble of our national game is nothing new for the West Midlands. Growing up in the eighties, my Dad took me to more than a few matches at Villa Park in the away end. The language, chants, and antics were - at times - less than well-mannered.

But it was largely good-natured fun. Where there was violence, the police put a quick but firm end to it. Such was the rhythm of British life. The same men and women worked together all week, turning up and supporting different teams on a Saturday.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 24d

Rich interview with one very political science question: can Green parties emphasize economic inequality without losing their reputation on climate. Our work on the German Greens shows: yes. More emphasis on redistribution does not weaken perceived competence on climate and increases overall support

Zack Polanski @zackpolanski.bsky.social · 24d

Lower bills.

Fund the NHS.

Invest in our communities.

My long form conversation with @lewisgoodall.com 👇🏼

youtu.be/j8hiBI6T_24?...

Zack Polanski on populism, patriotism and poverty

YouTube video by The News Agents

youtu.be

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Martin Calladine @uglygame.bsky.social · 24d

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Tom Usher @tomusher.bsky.social · 24d

My first article for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social is about what Ricky Hatton’s death meant to me personally

www.newstatesman.com/culture/spor...

The ballad of Ricky Hatton

After the champion’s death, we must change how we treat the vulnerable

www.newstatesman.com

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 25d

12 days to go and clearly a good time to share this again.
While it looks like the PVV is going to do worse than in the last election (although let's not forget a lot of movement in the last week in 2023), taken together far-right parties might do as well or better than in 2023.

Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · Sep 10

Given that international pundits are starting to pay attention to the Dutch election: there is more than one far-right party in the Netherlands. If you want to assess how the Dutch far right is doing, you can't just look at the PVV but you have to include FvD and JA21.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

The Guardian @theguardian.com · 25d

Ministers to explore reversing ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending UK match after PM’s criticism – politics live

Fans of the Israeli football team will not be allowed to attend the Europa League match at Aston Villa on 6 November owing to safety concerns Good morning. Yesterday it emerged that fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv will not be allowed to attend the Europa League match at Aston Villa on 6 November owing to safety concerns. The decision was taken by Birmingham’s safety advisory group, based on advice from the West Midlands police, who said the match would be “high risk” based on “current intelligence and previous incidents, including violent clashes and hate crime offences that occurred during the 2024 Uefa Europa League match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv in Amsterdam”. There is more on the announcement here. The decision prompted widespread condemnation from political leaders. Keir Starmer said: This is the wrong decision. We will not tolerate antisemitism on our streets. This is a national disgrace. How have things come to this? A serious mistake by WM Police. You don’t tackle antisemitism by banning its victims. This decision must be reversed. From the moment that the match was announced, it was clear that there were latent safety risks that even our capable security and police authorities would not be able to fully manage. With so much hostility and uncertainty around the match, it was only right to take drastic measures. As Israel continues its assault on Gaza, killing thousands and devastating civilian infrastructure, sporting fixtures involving Israeli teams cannot be separated from the wider political context. Hosting such teams sends a message of normalisation and indifference to mass atrocities. [The decision is] just completely and utterly unacceptable, and the prime minister has said we will do everything we possibly can to resolve this issue. It’s an operational issue for the police, and government doesn’t get involved in operational issues for the police. Continue reading...

www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Mrs. Detective Pikajew, Esq. @clapifyoulikeme.favrd.social · 25d

I believe Zohran should condemn Hasan because I believe all streamers should be condemned

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Annie Kelly @annieknk.bsky.social · Sep 28

With this ringing endorsement, if you'd like to understand what deeply evil nonsense the literal President of the United States is promoting now please do listen! on.soundcloud.com/0SJT1Mcqx8ks...

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Ipsos in the UK @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social · Sep 28

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos

📉22% is the lowest we’ve recorded for Labour since June 2009
📉14% is the lowest VI share we’ve ever seen (since 1976) for the Conservatives

Headline voting intention: September 2025
Reform UK 34%
Labour 22%
Conservative 14%
Lib Dems 12%
Green Party 12%
Other 6%
Reform lead = +12

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 25

It is so incredibly grim that this is happening, that folks don't seem to believe it is happening (or do not appreciate the extent), and that Labour have been so weak in their response.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · Sep 25

I have had a large number of people say they simply did not understand the extent without posting the actual examples. Hence my approach to doing so

It remains the case that compelling evidence of just how much we are tolerating has yet to wake up those with actual responsibility and power yo act.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · Sep 24

Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Paul E. Johnson

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · Sep 25

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · Sep 24

Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.

Amrk @amrk.bsky.social · Sep 24

Also frankly I am quite desperate! A party that’s at best ambivalent on the question of whether I’m English and wants to deport my friends is 9 points ahead in the polls and the current leader is floundering and visibly out of his depth!

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 25

It drives me insane that no one seems to be able to make a case for the North without demonizing London. I think everyone, including a lot of ordinary folks in London, could benefit from lifting up some of the big cities up North so they can compete with London.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · Sep 24

Burnham’s positioning in the NS and Telegraph is essentially “I will continue to deny the constraints like Keir Starmer, while being even more explicitly hostile to London and the South, where a majority of parliamentary seats are”. Hard to see how that works well for Labour.

Michael @michaeljsc.bsky.social · Sep 24

not enthused by the Burnham Manifesto as set out here archive.is/9ylaW

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · Sep 24

Michael @michaeljsc.bsky.social · Sep 24

not enthused by the Burnham Manifesto as set out here archive.is/9ylaW

archive.is

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 23

Southampton Football Club

The Ineffable Horror of Joe Muggs @joemuggs.bsky.social · Sep 22

What’s the most Tory-coded thing you actively love?

Me: Essex. Elgar. Country pubs.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson, Matthew Kelly, Catherine J. Frieman

The Ineffable Horror of Joe Muggs @joemuggs.bsky.social · Sep 22

What’s the most Tory-coded thing you actively love?

Me: Essex. Elgar. Country pubs.

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Paul E. Johnson, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Reposted by Tim Bale, Paul E. Johnson

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · Sep 18

"the hard data suggests that the largest of the UK’s very real problems are no more being caused by mass immigration than they are by a group of charity fundraisers rowing past Great Yarmouth"

on.ft.com/3IsyVVu

@timharford.ft.com with his facts and reasonableness

The UK’s problems aren’t caused by immigration

It’s not hard to see how so many came to worry about the issue. But the data isn’t there

on.ft.com

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 17

That's the one! Cheers.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Sep 17

What is the name of the bare bones #rstats package that replicates a lot of dplyr functionality? I've completely forgotten what it is called (and I am hoping I didn't make it up in my head).

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · Sep 16

“If you would look away from the words of Charlie Kirk, from what else would you look away?”

Ta-Nehisi Coates nailes it again.

Charlie Kirk, Redeemed: A Political Class Finds Its Lost Cause

By ignoring the rhetoric and actions of the Turning Point USA founder, pundits and politicians are sanitizing his legacy.

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