Valerie Mueller
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valmuellerasu.bsky.social
Valerie Mueller
@valmuellerasu.bsky.social
8.7K followers 2.5K following 670 posts

Professor in the School of Politics and Global Studies, ASU
Work on climate change impacts, focusing on human mobility
#DevEcon #EnvironEcon #AgEcon #EnvironDemography #PoliticalEcon
Non-resident fellow at IFPRI
Livin’ it up in Spain 2025-6 .. more

Videos
Sociology 22%
Political science 22%
Posts Replies Media Videos

valmuellerasu.bsky.social
Valerie Mueller @valmuellerasu.bsky.social · 1d
Call for Proposals: Environmental Research Letters Focus Issue on "Initial and Enduring Environmental Consequences of Armed Conflict"
Full information on scope, guest editors, and submission process at: iopscience.iop.org/collections/...
Ask Jamon Van Den jamon.vandenhoek@oregonstate.edu questions.
Focus on Initial and Enduring Environmental Consequences of Armed Conflict - IOPscience
iopscience.iop.org

Reposted by Dan Goldhaber, Bruce D. Baker, Valerie Mueller , and 1 more

jenjennings.bsky.social
Jen Jennings @jenjennings.bsky.social · 1d
New Postdoctoral Research Associate positions at @Princeton's Office of Population Research!
postdoctoral associate at Princeton ad

Reposted by Ruth Dassonneville, Mark J. Brandt, Valerie Mueller

lisadellmuth.bsky.social
Lisa Dellmuth @lisadellmuth.bsky.social · 2d
Come work with me! Two postdoc positions open in @erc.europa.eu project PROTECT, examining how local change shapes public support for protectionist policies in areas like trade and finance. @stockholmuni.bsky.social
su.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
su.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
#polisky #academicsky

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Will Jennings, Michael J. Allen , and 11 more

jamestalarico.bsky.social
James Talarico @jamestalarico.bsky.social · 2d
This is the interview Donald Trump didn’t want you to see.

His FCC refused to air my interview with Stephen Colbert.

Trump is worried we’re about to flip Texas.

Reposted by Valerie Mueller, Clark Gray

ecmaeditors.bsky.social
Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 2d
Can cities in developing countries create enough good jobs for climate migrants? @gulyssea.bsky.social and @clementimbert.bsky.social show that, over a decade, drought-induced immigration decreases informality and increases the number of formal firms and jobs in Brazil. buff.ly/d3h4E6p

Reposted by Valerie Mueller

voxdev.bsky.social
VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 3d
🆕 The leading global early warning system for food insecurity misses millions in crisis

Today on VoxDev w/ @hopecm.bsky.social (UIUC), Erin Lentz (UT Austin), Chungmann Kim (JHU) & Kathy Baylis (@ucsantabarbara.bsky.social): voxdev.org/topic/method...
The leading global early warning system for food insecurity misses millions in crisis
The leading global early warning system for acute food insecurity systematically underestimates the scale of crisis-level hunger, missing around one in five people affected. As a result, global assess...
voxdev.org

Reposted by Caroline Krafft, Valerie Mueller, Aaron Sojourner , and 2 more

philipncohen.com
Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 3d
Steven Ruggles has a new analysis on cohort sizes and labor market competition, showing that when you account for immigration, labor market entrants, and retirements, the next few decades should be good for young workers. Paper not out yet, but here's a talk: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jw1...
graphs

valmuellerasu.bsky.social
Valerie Mueller @valmuellerasu.bsky.social · 4d
One of the perks of living so close to Utah, is proximity to such beauty. The Narrows scared me to death though. We went when the water level was really high.

Reposted by Valerie Mueller

karenho.bsky.social
Karen K. Ho @karenho.bsky.social · 4d
I guess if I were to sell out, it would be to become a Costco influencer

valmuellerasu.bsky.social
Valerie Mueller @valmuellerasu.bsky.social · 4d
Props to the guy who posted the tweet with the word Dairygooned in the thread. It grossed out my teenage son who had to translating for me.
THREAD | Soluzioni software per l'automazione industriale
Con sede a Udine, THREAD progetta e sviluppa software di automazione industriale su misura, secondo le specifiche applicazioni ed esigenze.
thread.it

Reposted by Valerie Mueller

nber.org
NBER @nber.org · 4d
The adoption of AI is higher among Democrats than Republicans, as is the self-reported risk of AI job-loss. This is due to Democrats’ higher education and more AI-facing occupations, from @nickbloom.bsky.social and Christos Makridis www.nber.org/papers/w34813

Reposted by Valerie Mueller

dennycarter.bsky.social
Denny Carter @dennycarter.bsky.social · 4d
Guys, I’m hearing 6'5 Australian TERA-CHAD Androgenic has flown to U.S and BONESMASHMAXXED in order to HUNT down the ASU frat leader and engage in a MOG-OFF to avenge Clavicular after the
BRUTAL frame mog incident that took place last week.
6'5 Australian TERA-CHAD Androgenic has flown to U.S and BONESMASHMAXXED in order to HUNT down the ASU frat leader and engage in a MOG-OFF to avenge Clavicular after the BRUTAL frame mog incident that took place last week

Reposted by Valerie Mueller, Mirco Tonin

davidajaeger.bsky.social
David A. Jaeger (econ) @davidajaeger.bsky.social · 4d
You could live here too! A new Senior Lecturer/Reader position to teach in our new Master of Public Policy Programme. Come build something great with me in a beautiful place!

Please repost.

www.vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

Reposted by Ben Bond‐Lamberty, Caroline Krafft, Valerie Mueller , and 2 more

crispapoll.bsky.social
Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 5d
I am hiring a postdoc @ Univ of Iowa. Potential project focuses include flood-risk infrastructure planning, disaster recovery processes and outcomes, insurance program externalities, or uncertainty in climate damage attribution. Please consider applying/sharing! jobs.uiowa.edu/postdoc/view...
Postdoctoral Requisition Details - Jobs@UIOWA: Search and Apply for Jobs at The University of Iowa
Jobs@UIOWA: The official place to search and apply for jobs at The University of Iowa.
jobs.uiowa.edu

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Robert W. Wallace, Caroline Krafft , and 6 more

faineg.bsky.social
Faine Greenwood @faineg.bsky.social · 5d
As a direct result of the obscene actions of Russell Vought and Elon Musk in destroying USAID, we can expect “at least 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030, if the current funding trend continues.

About 2.5 million of those deaths are projected to be children under the age of 5.”
One year on from dismantling of USAID, study projects that global aid cuts could lead to 9.4 million deaths by 2030 | CNN
It’s been one year since the Trump administration dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID), with aid cuts leading to the closure of HIV clinics in South Africa, the termination o...
www.cnn.com

Reposted by Valerie Mueller, Michael Kevane, Clark Gray

arielob.bsky.social
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea @arielob.bsky.social · 6d
Please share with potential solid candidates for this postdoc (academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/31576). We start reviewing application next week!

A data-savvy economist or data scientist with interest in agriculture and environment would be a good fit.

valmuellerasu.bsky.social
Valerie Mueller @valmuellerasu.bsky.social · 6d
Congrats!

Reposted by Valerie Mueller

marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social
Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 6d
On a sad day for climate a silver lining: I finally have a publication in Science or Nature (for those not in the know: Science & Nature are the two most prestigious journals for scientific publications. If not necessarily the best or the most accurate) www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Using markets to adapt to climate change
Research shows if and when markets can help limit the harms from climate change
www.science.org

valmuellerasu.bsky.social
Valerie Mueller @valmuellerasu.bsky.social · 6d
I would have never identified with this video had I not been living in Galicia. I’ve had it with no sun and rain.

Reposted by Dave O’Brien, Valerie Mueller

gtwodtke.bsky.social
Geoff Wodtke @gtwodtke.bsky.social · 6d
New working paper on recent trends in class mobility in the US: www.nber.org/papers/w34800

I learned a lot from an amazing team of collaborators at the @ucstonecenter.bsky.social while working on this propject: Weiqi Wang, @butaevak.bsky.social, and @durlauf.bsky.social

Reposted by Steve Peers, Valerie Mueller, Michelle Everson , and 1 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 6d
Bovino advanced all the way to within eyesight of Paisley Park, but his supply lines were stretched too thin and ultimately his frozen troops were encircled by Will Stancil and wine moms with whistles

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Jonathan Portes, Valerie Mueller , and 1 more

thomasjdurfee.bsky.social
Thomas Durfee @thomasjdurfee.bsky.social · 6d
I love being a labor economist, where null is interesting if your model is still convincing.
Anytime a student tells me they are worried they didn't find statistically significant results, I remind them of David Card. Two Nobel winning papers had null results (NJ/PA minimum wage and Mariel Boatlift)
ryancbriggs.net Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 7d
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

Reposted by Caroline Krafft, Valerie Mueller

voxdev.bsky.social
VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 7d
🆕 Integrating refugees: What policies work best?

Today on VoxDevTalks, Dany Bahar (@watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social) & Giovanni Peri (@ucdavis.bsky.social) discuss the long-term gains of early, well-sequenced policies for both refugees and host economies.

🔗 Link below ⤵️

Reposted by Valerie Mueller, Andrew Jacobs, Ryan K. Brook

yasharali.bsky.social
Yashar Ali 🐘 @yasharali.bsky.social · 7d
James Van Der Beek, who has been battling cancer, has died.

He was 48.

Per TMZ.

Reposted by Brian A. Nosek, Dan Goldhaber, Brendan Nyhan , and 32 more

ryancbriggs.net
Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 7d
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

Reposted by Valerie Mueller

tylerhoran.bsky.social
Tyler Horan @tylerhoran.bsky.social · 8d
Sharing a great opportunity for environmental sociology scholars: fully funded PhD Research Fellow position at University of Agder in Norway. 3-4 year program focused on environmental sociology and sustainable transition politics. #AcademicJobs #sociology

jobbnorge.no/en/available-jobs/job/29...

Reposted by Peter Thorne, John W. Williams, Gavin A. Schmidt , and 2 more

gwagner.com
Gernot Wagner @gwagner.com · 8d
While Zillow is removing its climate risk data from public view, the first truly open climate risk database.

Kudos, @carbonplan.org
carbonplan.org CarbonPlan @carbonplan.org · 8d
Today we’re launching Open Climate Risk, a fully open option for U.S. building-level climate risk data. It’s unique because it allows you to see not only risk scores, starting with wildfire, but also the complete underlying dataset, methods, and codebase. carbonplan.org/research/cli...

Reposted by Valerie Mueller

tomprogers.bsky.social
tomprogers @tomprogers.bsky.social · 8d
Anybody who wants to help reject an ICE prison camp in their community, this has some concrete things you can do to get the project killed
Using Data for Good: A Crash Course
Our response to "What can I do?"
projectsaltbox.substack.com

Reposted by Bryan D. Jones, Valerie Mueller, Scott A. Imberman , and 1 more

rahaeli.bsky.social
rahaeli @rahaeli.bsky.social · 8d
I genuinely cannot believe the degree to which we are pissing away this generational breakthrough, even given the fuckmuppets who are involved www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...
FDA declines to review Moderna's mRNA flu shot
Under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Food and Drug Administration has taken an aggressive stance against mRNA technology.
www.nbcnews.com

Reposted by Justin H. Kirkland, Valerie Mueller

simonweschle.bsky.social
Simon Weschle @simonweschle.bsky.social · 8d
🚨 JOB ALERT 🚨

We're hiring a Teaching Assistant Professor in Comparative Politics!

Come join a great department: unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/312...

I'm on the committee, so send any questions my way.
#polisky #academicjobs
The Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill invites applications for the position of Teaching Assistant Professor of Political Science. We are looking for a colleague who will teach three courses per semester in our undergraduate curriculum. The principal responsibility will be teaching in Comparative Politics, especially the introductory course, but the candidate may be invited to teach other courses, depending upon the department’s needs and the candidate’s areas of expertise. The ideal candidate will have a demonstrated record of successful undergraduate instruction. There are no research expectations associated with this position. This is a fixed term position with an initial appointment for three years and opportunities for re-appointment and advances contingent on performance and available funding. As part of the University’s teaching track, the position offers competitive benefits. More information on UNC’s career ladder and fixed term ranks is available here: https://facultyaffairs.unc.edu/policies-and-procedures/faculty-appointments/fixed-term-faculty-ranks/.