Jörg Ankel-Peters
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jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters
@jrgptrs.bsky.social
2.1K followers 300 following 240 posts

development & environmental economist. energy access, climate policy, replication & meta-science. RWI & I4R. #FirstGen bit.ly/40e2aQj

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Environmental science 29%
Energy 16%
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jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · Oct 11
Thought about scientific consensus recently? We have a new DP @i4replication.bsky.social that probes into the famous replication debate between Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson (AJR) and Albouy - and how experts assess this debate. We find that they disagree. 1/8 www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...

Reposted by Jörg Peters

Reposted by Jörg Peters

punkrockhistory.bsky.social
Punk Rock History @punkrockhistory.bsky.social · 4d
23 years ago today, one of the greatest died

In memory of Joe Strummer 🖤

... gone but not forgotten...

📸 Anthony Saint James

#punk #punks #punkrock #punklegend #joestrummer #theclash #punkrockhistory #history #otd

jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 5d
Right - but why are economists so obsessed with unobservables in OLS while they keep on ignoring them in applied IV work?

jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 5d
Thanks - and indeed! From your (vast) experience, why do you think people keep ignoring it?

Reposted by Jörg Peters

davidajaeger.bsky.social
David A. Jaeger (econ) @davidajaeger.bsky.social · 5d
Yeah, that’s been known for at least 30 years.

www.nber.org/papers/t0137
The Cure Can Be Worse than the Disease: A Cautionary Tale Regarding Instrumental Variables
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org

jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 5d
Bottom line: IVs need a different default. Start from a pessimistic prior – i.e. assume exclusion is violated - and try to vigoriously falsifiy that claim. We call this the revised-prior falsificationist approach, and apply it to a seminal topographic IV paper, Dinkelman (2011). 6/6

jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 5d
Weak IVs are the other structural issue. It’s well established—but widely ignored in practice—that inference is not credible when instruments are weak and exclusion is even subtly violated: under weakness, those violations can generate more bias than the original OLS confounding. 5/6

jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 5d
Collider bias is well established in econometrics. Yet in practice, IV aficionados rarely acknowledge it — even when conditioning on variables that are likely colliders. 4/6

jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 5d
So, topography is everywhere in socio-economic causal webs – and thus exclusion is the exception, not the default. The usual fix is adding controls. But other IV aficionados instrument (i.e. explicitly suspect endogeneity in) many of those controls - so controlling for them risks collider bias 3/6

jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 5d
Topography as IV is our case in point. We comb through top 120 econ journals (2011–2023) and find 161 studies using topographic variation. Here’s what the literature collectively implies: a dense causal web in which topography touches far more than the isolated channel any single IV paper wants. 2/6

jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 5d
We have a new DP @i4replication.bsky.social. It's on IVs - the credibility revolution’s workhorse in economics. To show how problematic they are, we look at what IV aficionados do & think. IV users can dismiss our assessment as too critical, but not theirs, right? 1/6 www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...

Reposted by Jörg Peters

Reposted by Jörg Peters, Valerie Mueller

i4replication.bsky.social
Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 8d
📷New blog post: Where Papers Go Before (and After) rejection at a top field journal? This blog post explore this and more. One key finding is that desk- and referee-rejected manuscripts end up getting published at roughly the same rate elsewhere.

i4replication.org/where-papers...

Reposted by Brian A. Nosek, Brendan Nyhan, Jörg Peters , and 1 more

gordpennycook.bsky.social
Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 9d
🚨 Now out in Psych Science 🚨

We report an adversarial collaboration (with @donandrewmoore.bsky.social) testing whether overconfidence is genuinely a trait

The paper was led by Jabin Binnendyk & Sophia Li (who is fantastic and on the job market!) Free copy here: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/7JIYS...

Reposted by Jörg Peters

voxdev.bsky.social
VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 11d
🆕 A reversing deforestation mechanism for climate and ecosystem restoration

Today on VoxDev, Juliano Assunção (Climate Policy Initiative) discusses a proposal to reduce deforestation, protect standing forests, and incentivise reforestation at scale: https://ow.ly/fY6J50XJtEh
A reversing deforestation mechanism for climate and ecosystem restoration
We need to reduce deforestation, protect standing forests, and incentivise reforestation at scale. The climate depends on it. Here is a proposal that can achieve all three.
ow.ly

Reposted by Jörg Peters

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Michael Kevane, Georg Weizsäcker

jrgptrs.bsky.social
Jörg Ankel-Peters @jrgptrs.bsky.social · 15d
We conducted a 10-year follow up on our impact evaluation of Rwanda's electricity access roll-out program - now out in @natcomms.nature.com. Modest short-term impacts sustain, but connection rates stagnate and electricity usage remains on extrenely low levels. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Jörg Peters, Alexander Wuttke , and 2 more

i4replication.bsky.social
Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 15d
We're thrilled to open registration for our 1st 2026 Replication Games. The event will be at the University of Zurich on January 19th.

Psych, public health, pol sci and econ studies will be reproduced! Register here: www.surveymonkey.ca/r/Replicatio...

Reposted by Jörg Peters, Valerie Mueller, Paolo Crosetto , and 2 more

moritzfritschle.bsky.social
Moritz Peter Fritschle @moritzfritschle.bsky.social · 15d
New paper in the #JARE 📄 🥳

To celebrate 50 years of the Journal of #Agricultural and #Resource #Economics, we contributed our paper "Advancing Agri-Environmental Policy with Behavioral and Experimental Economics: Insights, Innovations, and Future Directions" to the latest special issue. 1/4
Advancing Agri-Environmental Policy with Behavioral and Experimental Economics: Insights, Innovations, and Future Directions In recent years, behavioral and experimental economics have increasingly shaped agrienvironmental research by revealing how farmers navigate complex decisions. This article reviews key developments in three areas: behavioral insights into farmers’ social, temporal, and risk preferences and identities, norms, and motivations; experimental methods for assessing behavior and policy impacts; and methodological advances enhancing scientific rigor. We highlight contributions to more behaviorally informed agri-environmental policies, including nudges, participatory approaches, and innovative schemes. Looking forward, priorities include large-scale collaborative studies, stronger stakeholder involvement, and integrating behavioral evidence into policymaking, addressing challenges such as farmer fatigue, to design adaptive, effective, and legitimate policies. Copyright: JARE

Reposted by Jörg Peters

Reposted by Jörg Peters

Reposted by Jörg Peters

Reposted by Jörg Peters

Reposted by Jörg Peters

Reposted by Jörg Peters, Johannes Breuer, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft

leibniz-gemeinschaft.de
Leibniz-Gemeinschaft @leibniz-gemeinschaft.de · 21d
Christoph M. Schmidt (RWI) wurde zum 8. Präsidenten der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft gewählt. Alexandra W. Busch @leizarchaeology.bsky.social, Albert Sickmann @isas-leibniz.bsky.social und Barbara Sturm @leibnizatb.bsky.social wurden als Vizepräsident:innen gewählt. Herzlichen Glückwunsch!
Zur Mitteilung👇
Sechs Personen stehen vor einer großen, aufgestellten Grafikwand. Die Wand hat einen Farbverlauf vom violett-roten ins grüne. Rechts oben ist das Wortlogo "Leibniz-Gemeinschaft" zu sehen. Die Personen von links nach rechts: Albert Sickmann, Mann in schwarzem Anzug mit leichtem Lächeln und Blick zur Kamera; Alexandra Busch, Frau in auberginenfarbigem Anzug mit lächelndem Blick in die Kamera; Christoph Schmidt, Mann in dunkelblauem Anzug mit Lächeln zur Kamera; Barbara Sturm, Frau in grauem Anzug mit breitem Lächeln in die Kamera; Martin Mittelbach, Mann in schwarzem Anzug mit breitem Lächeln in die Kamera und zuletzt Sebastian Lentz, Mann in dunkelblauem Jackett und dunkelblauer Jeans breit lächelnd mit Blick in die Kamera. Foto: David Ausserhofer