Jörg Ankel-Peters
@jrgptrs.bsky.social
development & environmental economist. energy access, climate policy, replication & meta-science. RWI & I4R. #FirstGen bit.ly/40e2aQj
Our Leibniz Open Science Day, 'Better Science for Better Policies', is taking place tomorrow in Berlin, with an exciting programme of interesting papers - check them out. The meta-scientific community is really taking off! www.zbw.eu/de/ueber-uns...
October 26, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Our Leibniz Open Science Day, 'Better Science for Better Policies', is taking place tomorrow in Berlin, with an exciting programme of interesting papers - check them out. The meta-scientific community is really taking off! www.zbw.eu/de/ueber-uns...
Thanks. Yes, many things are coming together. But I think the IV fragility is implicitly part of Albouy's critque because his modifications make the IV extremely weak. Basically the mechanism that "destroys" the results. But you are right, people are extremly skeptical of AJR's IV, see here:
October 11, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Thanks. Yes, many things are coming together. But I think the IV fragility is implicitly part of Albouy's critque because his modifications make the IV extremely weak. Basically the mechanism that "destroys" the results. But you are right, people are extremly skeptical of AJR's IV, see here:
Back to the debate. The final and main question of our survey was simply whether respondents, overall, agree with AJR or with Albouy. There is a slight tendency towards Albouy, but a significant proportion of experts is clearly in the pro-AJR camp. We interpret this as no consensus. 6/8
October 11, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Back to the debate. The final and main question of our survey was simply whether respondents, overall, agree with AJR or with Albouy. There is a slight tendency towards Albouy, but a significant proportion of experts is clearly in the pro-AJR camp. We interpret this as no consensus. 6/8
A specific gem for AJR aficionados, if you ask me, is the huge difference in how experts judge AJR's *general* theoretical claim (institutions matter for growth) vs their *specific* theoretical claim (settler mortality matters for institutions, which matter for growth). 5/8
October 11, 2025 at 11:46 AM
A specific gem for AJR aficionados, if you ask me, is the huge difference in how experts judge AJR's *general* theoretical claim (institutions matter for growth) vs their *specific* theoretical claim (settler mortality matters for institutions, which matter for growth). 5/8
Our short survey provided a concise and neutral summary of the debate papers. Following this summary, we asked respondents how convincing they found the respective arguments. Some preferred AJR's arguments, others preferred Albouy's. 4/8
October 11, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Our short survey provided a concise and neutral summary of the debate papers. Following this summary, we asked respondents how convincing they found the respective arguments. Some preferred AJR's arguments, others preferred Albouy's. 4/8
Respondents are also fairly familiar with the debate papers, that is, AJR’s original paper from 2001, as well as Albouy’s comment and AJR’s reply published simultaneously in 2012. 3/8
October 11, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Respondents are also fairly familiar with the debate papers, that is, AJR’s original paper from 2001, as well as Albouy’s comment and AJR’s reply published simultaneously in 2012. 3/8
We did a survey among experts. How do we define "expert"? We did not mass-email or post the survey on social media. Instead, we emailed it exclusively to people who cite one of the debate papers or methodologically similar papers. It seems we successfully recruited experts: 2/8
October 11, 2025 at 11:42 AM
We did a survey among experts. How do we define "expert"? We did not mass-email or post the survey on social media. Instead, we emailed it exclusively to people who cite one of the debate papers or methodologically similar papers. It seems we successfully recruited experts: 2/8
Thought about scientific consensus recently? We have a new DP @i4replication.bsky.social that probes into the famous replication debate between Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson (AJR) and Albouy - and how experts assess this debate. We find that they disagree. 1/8 www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...
October 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Thought about scientific consensus recently? We have a new DP @i4replication.bsky.social that probes into the famous replication debate between Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson (AJR) and Albouy - and how experts assess this debate. We find that they disagree. 1/8 www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...
New DP @i4replication.bsky.social: Meta-analysis on green nudges correcting for publication bias. "Behavioral interventions on households and individuals are unlikely to deliver material climate benefits." www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...
October 9, 2025 at 9:36 AM
New DP @i4replication.bsky.social: Meta-analysis on green nudges correcting for publication bias. "Behavioral interventions on households and individuals are unlikely to deliver material climate benefits." www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...
New DP @i4replication.bsky.social : Meta-analysis on the price elasticity of heating and cooling energy demand. www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...
October 6, 2025 at 8:12 AM
New DP @i4replication.bsky.social : Meta-analysis on the price elasticity of heating and cooling energy demand. www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...
Das kann doch kein Zufall sein.
October 3, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Das kann doch kein Zufall sein.
At @i4replication.bsky.social it is our ambition to foster a replication culture in the social sciences – and we hence welcome if our approaches are replicated as well: Replication Games on using LLM in experiments, in Valencia and Oxford. talkingtomachines.org/projects/ime...
September 29, 2025 at 11:58 AM
At @i4replication.bsky.social it is our ambition to foster a replication culture in the social sciences – and we hence welcome if our approaches are replicated as well: Replication Games on using LLM in experiments, in Valencia and Oxford. talkingtomachines.org/projects/ime...
I4R Replication Games coming to Münster! @i4replication.bsky.social @aufdroeseler.bsky.social @fialalenka.bsky.social
September 17, 2025 at 7:06 AM
I4R Replication Games coming to Münster! @i4replication.bsky.social @aufdroeseler.bsky.social @fialalenka.bsky.social
Coding errors in data processing are more likely to be ignored if the erroneous result is in line with what we want to see. The theoretical prediction made in this paper is very plausible - testing it empirically is perhaps a bit more challenging. But still, interesting. arxiv.org/pdf/2508.20069
August 30, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Coding errors in data processing are more likely to be ignored if the erroneous result is in line with what we want to see. The theoretical prediction made in this paper is very plausible - testing it empirically is perhaps a bit more challenging. But still, interesting. arxiv.org/pdf/2508.20069
Hey #EAAE2025: Thursday is replication day. First, Anna Dreber's keynote on "Predicting Replication Outcomes" (11am) & our session👇(4pm) feat. @robertfinger.bsky.social @cedricchambru.bsky.social @jensrommel.bsky.social @beta1hat.bsky.social @mabuchner.bsky.social @i4replication.bsky.social
August 26, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Hey #EAAE2025: Thursday is replication day. First, Anna Dreber's keynote on "Predicting Replication Outcomes" (11am) & our session👇(4pm) feat. @robertfinger.bsky.social @cedricchambru.bsky.social @jensrommel.bsky.social @beta1hat.bsky.social @mabuchner.bsky.social @i4replication.bsky.social
We have a new version of our 10-year follow-up on electricity adoption in rural Rwanda. osf.io/96xr8_v2/dow...
August 2, 2025 at 12:23 PM
We have a new version of our 10-year follow-up on electricity adoption in rural Rwanda. osf.io/96xr8_v2/dow...
Replication Games @i4replication.bsky.social coming to Berlin! @janmarcus.de Register here. www.surveymonkey.ca/r/I4R_Replic...
July 31, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Replication Games @i4replication.bsky.social coming to Berlin! @janmarcus.de Register here. www.surveymonkey.ca/r/I4R_Replic...
Better science for better policies: The next edition of our Leibniz Open Science Day in Berlin is coming up. Submit your work or just attend. Focus is on the social sciences but submissions from all fields are welcome. #metascience2025 www.zbw.eu/en/about-us/...
July 2, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Better science for better policies: The next edition of our Leibniz Open Science Day in Berlin is coming up. Submit your work or just attend. Focus is on the social sciences but submissions from all fields are welcome. #metascience2025 www.zbw.eu/en/about-us/...
Join us @rwi.bsky.social & @i4replication.bsky.social as replicator for a meta-reproduction on deforestation. We pay replicators 2,500 EUR. Experience with geocoded data & background in environmental science are assets. 1/2 bit.ly/4ke2p6o
June 29, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Join us @rwi.bsky.social & @i4replication.bsky.social as replicator for a meta-reproduction on deforestation. We pay replicators 2,500 EUR. Experience with geocoded data & background in environmental science are assets. 1/2 bit.ly/4ke2p6o
The idea is to guide the reader straight to the core of most robustness anlayses: the analytical decisions underlying those specifications that do not confirm the original results. Are these theoretically and statistically plausible? 2/3
June 18, 2025 at 12:48 PM
The idea is to guide the reader straight to the core of most robustness anlayses: the analytical decisions underlying those specifications that do not confirm the original results. Are these theoretically and statistically plausible? 2/3
We have a new DP. It's actually more a tool than a paper. The Robustness Dashboard provides an at-a-glance visual summary of robustness analysis, distinguishing between confirmatory and negative robustness tests. @i4replication.bsky.social 1/3 www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...
June 18, 2025 at 12:47 PM
We have a new DP. It's actually more a tool than a paper. The Robustness Dashboard provides an at-a-glance visual summary of robustness analysis, distinguishing between confirmatory and negative robustness tests. @i4replication.bsky.social 1/3 www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...
The macro-rebound in energy efficiency interventions is important yet hard to study, they say. Here's our attempt to model & evaluate what happens on the "macro" (i.e. community) level after promotion of energy-efficient biomass cookstoves in Rwanda. academic.oup.com/wber/advance...
May 24, 2025 at 10:03 AM
The macro-rebound in energy efficiency interventions is important yet hard to study, they say. Here's our attempt to model & evaluate what happens on the "macro" (i.e. community) level after promotion of energy-efficient biomass cookstoves in Rwanda. academic.oup.com/wber/advance...
We have a new version of our paper on supply-side constraints for technology diffusion - here, improved cooking stoves - in Senegal. The take-away message is that doing business for peri-urban vendors in rural areas is expensive, and reaching villages remains challenging. osf.io/preprints/os...
May 19, 2025 at 2:14 PM
We have a new version of our paper on supply-side constraints for technology diffusion - here, improved cooking stoves - in Senegal. The take-away message is that doing business for peri-urban vendors in rural areas is expensive, and reaching villages remains challenging. osf.io/preprints/os...
Important point indeed, see below. Sometimes they are, often they are not.
April 3, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Important point indeed, see below. Sometimes they are, often they are not.
Our proposal for protocolled replicability & robustness assessments is out in Q Open. The main aim is to structure robustness reproductions, but also to extend the scope to external/construct validity as well as pre-specification checks. Comments welcome! academic.oup.com/qopen/advanc...
April 3, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Our proposal for protocolled replicability & robustness assessments is out in Q Open. The main aim is to structure robustness reproductions, but also to extend the scope to external/construct validity as well as pre-specification checks. Comments welcome! academic.oup.com/qopen/advanc...