Adam Pollack
@crispapoll.bsky.social
Policy analysis for problems defined by pluralistic values and deep uncertainties.
Research scientist @ Dartmouth College.
https://abpoll.github.io/
Research scientist @ Dartmouth College.
https://abpoll.github.io/
Pinned
Adam Pollack
@crispapoll.bsky.social
· Jan 7
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
New publication on federal funding rules that promote equity in climate adaptation outcomes, with particular attention to the Justice40 Initiative and a few simple funding rules that may better achieve the policy's intentions: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
'Iran’s capital must be moved because the country “no longer has a choice,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday in remarks carried by state media, warning that severe ecological strain has made Tehran impossible to sustain'
#Iran 🇮🇷
#Iran 🇮🇷
Iran president says capital move now a necessity as water crisis deepens
Iran’s capital must be moved because the country “no longer has a choice,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday in remarks carried by state media, warning that severe ecological strain has mad...
www.iranintl.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:52 AM
'Iran’s capital must be moved because the country “no longer has a choice,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday in remarks carried by state media, warning that severe ecological strain has made Tehran impossible to sustain'
#Iran 🇮🇷
#Iran 🇮🇷
Reposted by Adam Pollack
@thomas-wahl.bsky.social was featured in National Geographic discussing the rapid decline of Florida’s coral reefs and what it means for coastal resilience, with reefs suffering unprecedented losses in 2023.
Full article: www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/...
Full article: www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/...
Why hurricane flooding is about to get more dangerous in Florida
Florida’s coral reefs provide protection from hurricane storm surges—and experts estimate that losing key species in those reefs could imperil thousands of lives.
www.nationalgeographic.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:13 PM
@thomas-wahl.bsky.social was featured in National Geographic discussing the rapid decline of Florida’s coral reefs and what it means for coastal resilience, with reefs suffering unprecedented losses in 2023.
Full article: www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/...
Full article: www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
THREAD: Judge Ellis is the first federal judge to review extensive body cam video of DHS's actions in Chicago. She finds that DHS *repeatedly* misled the public and made claims that were disproven by agents' own videos.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
![II. Credibility
The Court next addresses the credibility of the parties’ evidence and witnesses. After reviewing all the evidence submitted to the Court and listening to the testimony elicited at the preliminary injunction hearing, during depositions, and in other court proceedings, the Court finds Defendants’ evidence simply not credible. [FN 6]
Plaintiffs submitted a mountain of evidence, providing the Court with over eighty declarations, numerous videos and articles, and other evidence. Defendants did not rebut anything that Plaintiffs set forth in their declarations or testimony, even with BWC footage.
[FN 6] In another case considering some of the same evidence presented to this Court, another court in this district also found that the perceptions of certain of Defendants’ declarants, such as Hott and Parra, were not reliable. See Illinois v. Trump, No. 25-cv-12174, 2025 WL 2886645, at *5 (N.D. Ill. Oct. 10, 2025) (noting a “troubling trend of Defendants’ declarants equating protests with riots and a lack of appreciation for the wide spectrum that exists between citizens who are observing, questioning, and criticizing their government, and those who are obstructing, assaulting, or doing violence”), motion to stay denied in part, 155 F.4th 929 (7th Cir. 2025).](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2vtbmhmrwzbqcfv4we4uxzzt/bafkreifpyry2il5toxbr3iejgrsxs6kmnwve75qwnhebfp44ieyjrfpsdu@jpeg)
November 20, 2025 at 11:04 PM
THREAD: Judge Ellis is the first federal judge to review extensive body cam video of DHS's actions in Chicago. She finds that DHS *repeatedly* misled the public and made claims that were disproven by agents' own videos.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
Awesome job opportunity to serve local communities and direct use-informed research as a program manager at the Iowa Flood Center (lnkd.in/gW82gR6F). I haven't even started at Iowa yet and the people at the Iowa Flood Center could not be more welcoming, dedicated, and effective.
November 20, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Awesome job opportunity to serve local communities and direct use-informed research as a program manager at the Iowa Flood Center (lnkd.in/gW82gR6F). I haven't even started at Iowa yet and the people at the Iowa Flood Center could not be more welcoming, dedicated, and effective.
Reposted by Adam Pollack
"Iran is facing its worst water crisis in decades. With no end in sight and authorities warning they may even have to evacuate the capital of 10 million people, residents like Ensani are scrambling to respond."
www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
Taps run dry as water crisis forces Iran to consider evacuating its capital
A prolonged drought along with years of overconsumption, an inefficient agricultural sector and mismanagement have led to the problem, analysts say.
www.nbcnews.com
November 16, 2025 at 1:12 PM
"Iran is facing its worst water crisis in decades. With no end in sight and authorities warning they may even have to evacuate the capital of 10 million people, residents like Ensani are scrambling to respond."
www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
i want to put this in front of conservative pundits who defended this raid bsky.app/profile/raws...
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem should resign and be criminally charged, according to critics who seized on a report revealing that zero people who were arrested in a high-profile raid were charged with a crime.
'Noem should resign over this': Fury over alleged DHS 'child kidnapping and trafficking'
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem should resign and be criminally charged, according to critics who seized on a report revealing that zero people who were arrested in a high-profile raid were charged with a crime.ProPublica recently reported on the DHS raid on an apartment building that was al...
bit.ly
November 16, 2025 at 5:05 PM
i want to put this in front of conservative pundits who defended this raid bsky.app/profile/raws...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
NEW: We’ve uncovered the first known example of taxpayer money flowing from DHS to businesses controlled by Kristi Noem’s allies and friends.
It’s part of a money trail that’s been shrouded in secrecy—and involves $220 million, a mysterious Delaware LLC & a horse named Gill.
It’s part of a money trail that’s been shrouded in secrecy—and involves $220 million, a mysterious Delaware LLC & a horse named Gill.
November 14, 2025 at 12:20 PM
NEW: We’ve uncovered the first known example of taxpayer money flowing from DHS to businesses controlled by Kristi Noem’s allies and friends.
It’s part of a money trail that’s been shrouded in secrecy—and involves $220 million, a mysterious Delaware LLC & a horse named Gill.
It’s part of a money trail that’s been shrouded in secrecy—and involves $220 million, a mysterious Delaware LLC & a horse named Gill.
Reposted by Adam Pollack
As all this disgusting Epstein shit starts surfacing more and more, I hope we don't lose sight of the fact that apparently every major media outlet knew everything and instead spent their time money and energy attacking the trans community.
November 13, 2025 at 1:07 AM
As all this disgusting Epstein shit starts surfacing more and more, I hope we don't lose sight of the fact that apparently every major media outlet knew everything and instead spent their time money and energy attacking the trans community.
We've used this so far for policy analysis (doi.org/10.1073/pnas...), capturing flood-risk dynamics (doi.org/10.1111/jfr3...), and isolating the effect of structure inventory errors on damage estimates (dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...).
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper!
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
Just published in JOSS: 'UNSAFE: An UNcertain Structure And Fragility Ensemble framework for property-level flood risk estimation' https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.07527
November 13, 2025 at 2:34 PM
We've used this so far for policy analysis (doi.org/10.1073/pnas...), capturing flood-risk dynamics (doi.org/10.1111/jfr3...), and isolating the effect of structure inventory errors on damage estimates (dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...).
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Hopefully it is something that can be useful for you as well.
Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper!
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
Just published in JOSS: 'UNSAFE: An UNcertain Structure And Fragility Ensemble framework for property-level flood risk estimation' https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.07527
November 13, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper!
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe
@jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social
Reposted by Adam Pollack
SNAP and other similar programs are corporate welfare for businesses who DO NOT PAY A THRIVING WAGE.
Never, ever allow GOP fascists to tell you people on SNAP are moochers. They are working, paying taxes; they are children, or ppl with disabilities.
The CEOs and shareholders are the moochers.
Never, ever allow GOP fascists to tell you people on SNAP are moochers. They are working, paying taxes; they are children, or ppl with disabilities.
The CEOs and shareholders are the moochers.
November 12, 2025 at 2:41 PM
SNAP and other similar programs are corporate welfare for businesses who DO NOT PAY A THRIVING WAGE.
Never, ever allow GOP fascists to tell you people on SNAP are moochers. They are working, paying taxes; they are children, or ppl with disabilities.
The CEOs and shareholders are the moochers.
Never, ever allow GOP fascists to tell you people on SNAP are moochers. They are working, paying taxes; they are children, or ppl with disabilities.
The CEOs and shareholders are the moochers.
Reposted by Adam Pollack
My group at the University of Illinois is hiring a tenure-track applied economist.
We're especially interested in environmental/public reduced-form rookies with research that complements our group.
Tell your students to apply! #EconSky
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
We're especially interested in environmental/public reduced-form rookies with research that complements our group.
Tell your students to apply! #EconSky
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
American Economic Association: JOE Listings - August 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026
www.aeaweb.org
November 11, 2025 at 11:00 PM
My group at the University of Illinois is hiring a tenure-track applied economist.
We're especially interested in environmental/public reduced-form rookies with research that complements our group.
Tell your students to apply! #EconSky
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
We're especially interested in environmental/public reduced-form rookies with research that complements our group.
Tell your students to apply! #EconSky
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Chuck Schumer Helps Pull Democrats Back From Brink Of Courage
November 10, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Chuck Schumer Helps Pull Democrats Back From Brink Of Courage
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Harm to SNAP recipients, federal workers, and others is real. In a normal democracy it’d make sense to prioritize reducing that harm in the short term.
In a rapidly backsliding democracy, harm is happening no matter what. Preventing authoritarian consolidation is the most harm-reducing move.
In a rapidly backsliding democracy, harm is happening no matter what. Preventing authoritarian consolidation is the most harm-reducing move.
two contradictory ideas that i hold in my head at the same time: 1) i think the threat to both SNAP recipients and federal workers is significant enough now that even bad deals are worth making to prevent further harm, and, 2) everyone who caves now should retire in shame
November 10, 2025 at 2:54 AM
Harm to SNAP recipients, federal workers, and others is real. In a normal democracy it’d make sense to prioritize reducing that harm in the short term.
In a rapidly backsliding democracy, harm is happening no matter what. Preventing authoritarian consolidation is the most harm-reducing move.
In a rapidly backsliding democracy, harm is happening no matter what. Preventing authoritarian consolidation is the most harm-reducing move.
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Important to understand this. There's a reasonable chance that your Dem Senator who voted against it and is acting mad now was in on the play. It's the same reason why they scheduled the surrender for AFTER the election this week. They didn't want people pissed at Dems right before an election.
The caucus meeting was just to orchestrate who would fall on the sword but not be up for a vote in 2026.
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
November 10, 2025 at 2:11 AM
Important to understand this. There's a reasonable chance that your Dem Senator who voted against it and is acting mad now was in on the play. It's the same reason why they scheduled the surrender for AFTER the election this week. They didn't want people pissed at Dems right before an election.
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Opinion
Nicholas Kristof
"Trump Aid Cuts Kill More Christians Than Jihadists Do"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/o...
Nicholas Kristof
"Trump Aid Cuts Kill More Christians Than Jihadists Do"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/o...
November 9, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Opinion
Nicholas Kristof
"Trump Aid Cuts Kill More Christians Than Jihadists Do"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/o...
Nicholas Kristof
"Trump Aid Cuts Kill More Christians Than Jihadists Do"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/o...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
I understand why we shut down American airspace for a few days after 9-11 to avoid a repeat attack but imagine shutting down American airspace to avoid releasing the Epstein files.
November 7, 2025 at 11:03 PM
I understand why we shut down American airspace for a few days after 9-11 to avoid a repeat attack but imagine shutting down American airspace to avoid releasing the Epstein files.
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Projecting future sea level rise is a difficult task. 🌊🔬
In a new podcast episode, @vsrikrish.bsky.social discusses the complex factors that contribute to sea level rise, the impact of different greenhouse gases, and more.
Listen now! 🎧
In a new podcast episode, @vsrikrish.bsky.social discusses the complex factors that contribute to sea level rise, the impact of different greenhouse gases, and more.
Listen now! 🎧
Understanding Uncertainty in Climate Change and Sea Level Rise, with Vivek Srikrishnan
Vivek Srikrishnan discusses the uncertainty surrounding factors that contribute to climate change and subsequent sea level rise, including how these uncertainties lead to a wide range of sea level pro...
www.resources.org
November 5, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Projecting future sea level rise is a difficult task. 🌊🔬
In a new podcast episode, @vsrikrish.bsky.social discusses the complex factors that contribute to sea level rise, the impact of different greenhouse gases, and more.
Listen now! 🎧
In a new podcast episode, @vsrikrish.bsky.social discusses the complex factors that contribute to sea level rise, the impact of different greenhouse gases, and more.
Listen now! 🎧
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Let’s hear more of the dangers of democratic socialism under Mamdani
Trump to the Novo Nordisk CEO: "Maybe you should give us a piece of the company like I've been asking for."
November 6, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Let’s hear more of the dangers of democratic socialism under Mamdani
Here's Gorsuch getting Sauer to explicitly admit this: x.com/Acyn/status/...
November 6, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Here's Gorsuch getting Sauer to explicitly admit this: x.com/Acyn/status/...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
This is incredibly dangerous, especially in the hands of ICE under this administration. A birth certificate or passport should be determinative, not what a facial recognition app says, particularly given known biases of facial recognition models.
New incredible detail here: ICE says a match in its facial recognition app Mobile Fortify is a "definitive" determination of a person's status, and that this overrides birth certificates. This is an app ICE is using in the field to scan people
www.404media.co/ice-and-cbp-...
www.404media.co/ice-and-cbp-...
October 29, 2025 at 8:33 PM
This is incredibly dangerous, especially in the hands of ICE under this administration. A birth certificate or passport should be determinative, not what a facial recognition app says, particularly given known biases of facial recognition models.
Awesome postdoc opportunity to work with Justin Mankin and Klaus Keller on heat wave driven mortality risks and management. See more here: apply.interfolio.com/176582
Apply - Interfolio
{{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
apply.interfolio.com
October 27, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Awesome postdoc opportunity to work with Justin Mankin and Klaus Keller on heat wave driven mortality risks and management. See more here: apply.interfolio.com/176582
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Leavitt: "At this moment in time, of course, the ballroom is really the president's main priority."
October 23, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Leavitt: "At this moment in time, of course, the ballroom is really the president's main priority."
Reposted by Adam Pollack
Sometimes stories only make sense after you've stared at the wall for a long time.
Other times only when you've been staring at heaps of crushed rocks.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Other times only when you've been staring at heaps of crushed rocks.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The Disaster Industrial Complex Is Driving US Economic Growth
Some stories have mundane beginnings, while others strike like lightning. Only occasionally is it both. In today’s newsletter, we share the story behind our new feature on the disaster industrial comp...
www.bloomberg.com
October 23, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Sometimes stories only make sense after you've stared at the wall for a long time.
Other times only when you've been staring at heaps of crushed rocks.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Other times only when you've been staring at heaps of crushed rocks.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Reposted by Adam Pollack
More evidence supporting this really neat paper doi.org/10.1111/ajps... (JSTOR version: www.jstor.org/stable/45295...)
October 23, 2025 at 2:21 PM
More evidence supporting this really neat paper doi.org/10.1111/ajps... (JSTOR version: www.jstor.org/stable/45295...)