Jeff Carter
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jeffcarter.bsky.social
Jeff Carter
@jeffcarter.bsky.social
570 followers 470 following 71 posts

Researches and professes about international relations. “An incredibly average scholar.” Co-director of the Correlates of War project. Probably thinking about music, food, or the dog.

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Political science 32%
Economics 16%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Stephan Lewandowsky, Brendan Nyhan , and 10 more

andrew.heiss.phd
Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 4d
Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers

“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”

(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
Why Underachievers Dominate Secret Police Organizations: Evidence from Autocratic Argentina Adam Scharpf Christian Gläßel Abstract: Autocrats depend on a capable secret police. Anecdotal evidence, however, often characterizes agents as surprisingly mediocre in skill and intellect. To explain this puzzle, this article focuses on the career incentives underachieving individuals face in the regular security apparatus. Low-performing officials in hierarchical organizations have little chance of being promoted or filling lucrative positions. To salvage their careers, these officials are willing to undertake burdensome secret police work. Using data on all 4,287 officers who served in autocratic Argentina (1975-83), we study biographic differences between secret police agents and the entire recruitment pool. We find that low-achieving officers were stuck within the regime hierarchy, threatened with discharge, and thus more likely to join the secret police for future benefits. The study demonstrates how state bureaucracies breed mundane career concerns that produce willing enforcers and cement violent regimes. This has implications for the understanding of autocratic consolidation and democratic breakdown.

Reposted by Jeff Carter

audacityofdespair.bsky.social
David Simon @audacityofdespair.bsky.social · 9d
Here is a thread about a true police-shooting incident that I'm going to use to pose a fun little thought problem for anyone anywhere who think there ia a single justifiable reason to ever allow a law enforcement officer to use force on a citizen and remain anonymous. From my back pages:

Reposted by Michael Weintraub, Jeff Carter

thejop.bsky.social
Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social · 10d
"Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes" by Andi Zhou, Hein Goemans, and Michael Weintraub. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Reposted by Juan Moreno‐Cruz, Paul Nightingale, Jeff Carter

victorgayeco.bsky.social
Victor Gay @victorgayeco.bsky.social · 12d
Can state-building disrupt rather than stabilize society? Thrilled to have a new article in @apsrjournal.bsky.social w/ @mikealbertus.bsky.social showing that the expansion of state communication networks spurred rebellion for decades in France before the Revolution.

👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
🧵1/7

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Brendan Nyhan, Steve Peers , and 2 more

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 15d
Wrote up this thread for @goodauth.bsky.social (thanks as always to the amazing editorial team!). goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...

Reposted by Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Rosemary A. Joyce, David R. Miller , and 2 more

dieworkwear.bsky.social
derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 24d
it's crazy that 500 years ago, you would see the ruler of your country maybe once in your life and hear whispers that they're the Sun God, but now with social media, you get to see on a daily basis that they're the most unhinged, idiotic, and unhappy person you know

Reposted by Justin H. Kirkland, Benjamin Braun, Baptiste Coulmont , and 2 more

victorgayeco.bsky.social
Victor Gay @victorgayeco.bsky.social · Dec 19
There is growing interest in HPE about social conflict in the run-up to the French Revolution.

In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789)

👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc....
👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

🧵1/6

Reposted by Jeff Carter

nytpitchbot.bsky.social
NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · Nov 22
If the government won't bail out my crypto losses, I'm going to become an even bigger libertarian.

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Elizabeth Saunders, Jonathan Hopkin , and 4 more

ianmhartshorn.com
Ian M Hartshorn @ianmhartshorn.com · Nov 16
People getting mad here about anyone saying it's good that MTG and Trump are fighting. I teach democratization every semester. The first slide says 'elite fracture.' That's always where it starts. It's good when people with bad politics are fighting one another.
olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · Nov 16
I do not regret to inform you that we are going to win
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Nov 16
BASH: We have seen these attacks from the president at other people. It's not new. And I haven't heard you speak out about it until it was directed at you.

MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE: I think that's fair criticism. And I would like to say, humbly, I'm sorry for taking part in the toxic politics.

Reposted by Kris Inwood, Joshua Goodman, Trevon D. Logan , and 7 more

daniellecgw.bsky.social
Danielle Graves Williamson @daniellecgw.bsky.social · Nov 12
👋 I'm Danielle, and I'm on the #econjobmarket this year!

Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:

"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"

The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.

A JMP 🧵 -->

Reposted by Jeff Carter

correlatesofwar.bsky.social
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · Nov 3
(This also reminds us of the need to introduce some more consistent version-numbering rules, which we'll do in the not-too-distant future.)
a man in a suit and tie is saying fix this .
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is saying fix this .
media.tenor.com

Reposted by Jeff Carter

correlatesofwar.bsky.social
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · Nov 3
We've introduced a minor update to COW's State System Membership Data, updating the coverage through 2024 and making available "blank" dyad-year and directed dyad-year data sets, in addition to the traditional state-year data.

correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/st...
State System Membership (v2024) – The Correlates of War Project
correlatesofwar.org

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Linda J. Skitka, John Kane , and 17 more

nickvalentino.bsky.social
Nick Valentino @nickvalentino.bsky.social · Nov 1
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...

The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org

Reposted by Rosemary A. Joyce, R. M. Wilson, Jacob T. Levy , and 4 more

cnn.com
CNN @cnn.com · Oct 24
It wasn't fake. It was edited. But Reagan really did spend a five-minute speech – an April 25, 1987, national radio address that the Reagan Library has published on YouTube – to rail against tariffs. It was a full-throated expression of support for free and fair trade.
https://cnn.it/4o5pBGv

Reposted by Tom Clark, Kevin Carey, Samantha Brennan , and 4 more

jeremylittau.com
Jeremy Littau @jeremylittau.com · Oct 18
Student media rules. They are lapping a lot of the spineless media orgs this year and showing how solidarity is the way.

jeffcarter.bsky.social
Jeff Carter @jeffcarter.bsky.social · Oct 9
Not at the moment. I’d suggest you reach out to the data hosts for more information. Their contact information is on the website.

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Seth Masket, Andrew M. Riggsby , and 1 more

jeffcarter.bsky.social
Jeff Carter @jeffcarter.bsky.social · Oct 5
There is. The war data hosts are working on updating their data sets.

Reposted by Mirya R. Holman, Jeff Carter

apsareligion.bsky.social
APSA Religion and Politics Section @apsareligion.bsky.social · Oct 1
Call for Proposals! APSA R&P is accepting proposals for small grant awards of up to $2,500 for research on R&P. Proposals may address any topic of theoretical, empirical, and practical significance for the study of religion and politics. Apply here: bit.ly/4gRt4py
Call for Proposals: Small Grants for Research in Religion and Politics
Call for Proposals:  Small Grants for Research in Religion and Politics Due November 10, 2025   The Religion and Politics section of the American Political Science Association is requesting proposals ...
bit.ly

Reposted by Jeff Carter

correlatesofwar.bsky.social
The Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social · Oct 1
Announcing the barest of web redesigns at correlatesofwar.org. Look on our new logo, ye mighty, and despair.
The Correlates of War Project – The Correlates of War Project
correlatesofwar.org

Reposted by Jeff Carter

cullenhendrix.bsky.social
Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · Sep 15
From Jan–July 2025, U.S. musical instrument exports are 8.4% below the 2021–24 avg.

Brazil (-28%), China (-27%), Italy (-23%), and Canada (-12%) saw sharpest Y-o-Y drops.

Why?
NOT retaliation (ex-China)

- Higher input costs
- Global economic uncertainty
- Consumer substitution away from brands
piie.com Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · Sep 15
NEW: From Jan-Jul 2025 US exports of musical instruments were 8.4% lower than average over same time 2021–24, likely reflecting higher input costs passed to consumers, dampened demand amid economic uncertainty, & for some, conscious substitution away from US products. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:
Tariffs and economic uncertainty are hitting US musical instrument exports
From January through July 2025, US exports of musical instruments were 8.4 percent lower than the average over the same months in 2021–24, with even steeper year-on-year declines in key markets such a...
www.piie.com

Reposted by Cullen S. Hendrix, Jeff Carter

piie.com
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · Sep 15
NEW: From Jan-Jul 2025 US exports of musical instruments were 8.4% lower than average over same time 2021–24, likely reflecting higher input costs passed to consumers, dampened demand amid economic uncertainty, & for some, conscious substitution away from US products. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:
Tariffs and economic uncertainty are hitting US musical instrument exports
From January through July 2025, US exports of musical instruments were 8.4 percent lower than the average over the same months in 2021–24, with even steeper year-on-year declines in key markets such a...
www.piie.com

Reposted by David R. Miller, Jeff Carter

jawspolisci.bsky.social
Junior Americanist Workshop Series @jawspolisci.bsky.social · Sep 15
Why don't you continue the momentum from APSA and present your work at JAWS? We are still taking submissions!

docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Reposted by Kori Schake, James Cameron, Matthew Bodie , and 1 more

jmberger.com
J.M. Berger @jmberger.com · Sep 6
Apocalypse Now, famously a movie about how war is awesome and always turns out well

Reposted by Jeff Carter

hondercin.bsky.social
Heather Ondercin @hondercin.bsky.social · Sep 5
We are hiring in American Politics! While some areas are listed as preferences, we are open to a wide variety of specializations. I am happy to answer any questions you might have about the position. Please circulate in your networks.
appstate.peopleadmin.com/postings/50925
Tenure-Track Assistant Professor in Political Science
The individual hired in this position will contribute to the curriculum of lower and upper-level undergraduate courses, and graduate courses based on their area of expertise and program needs. The tea...
appstate.peopleadmin.com

jeffcarter.bsky.social
Jeff Carter @jeffcarter.bsky.social · Aug 30
Good stuff from @dhnexon.bsky.social
dhnexon.bsky.social Dan Nexon @dhnexon.bsky.social · Aug 30
🧵 Authoritarianism, Democratization, and Coalition Politics.

The consensus around here is, more or less, that the United States is currently a consolidating authoritarian regime controlled by a mix of reactionary populists and fascists.

Reposted by Kori Schake, Kim L. Scheppele, Elizabeth Saunders , and 18 more

dhnexon.bsky.social
Dan Nexon @dhnexon.bsky.social · Aug 30
🧵 Authoritarianism, Democratization, and Coalition Politics.

The consensus around here is, more or less, that the United States is currently a consolidating authoritarian regime controlled by a mix of reactionary populists and fascists.

Reposted by Samuel L. Perry, Mark J. Brandt, Justin H. Kirkland , and 5 more

Reposted by Jeff Carter

hondercin.bsky.social
Heather Ondercin @hondercin.bsky.social · Aug 21
App State is hiring in public administration. Join us in the mountains. I am not on the committee, but I am happy to answer any questions.
appstate.peopleadmin.com./postings/51187

Reposted by Jeff Carter

bridgingthegap.bsky.social
Bridging The Gap @bridgingthegap.bsky.social · Aug 19
American University is currently hiring two faculty positions in international affairs!

Assistant Professor, International Security:
www.higheredjobs.com/faculty/deta...

Assistant Professor, Economic Security
jobs.chronicle.com/job/37868709...
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