Peterson Institute for International Economics
@piie.com
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy.
Explore our research: piie.com
Explore our research: piie.com
The year has started with doubts about the prospects for US AI labs and cloud computing firms due to rising debt, depreciation, and circular vendor financing. Martin Chorzempa writes that revisiting 2025’s DeepSeek shock can shine light on the AI boom’s prospects going forward.
How the AI boom shrugged off the DeepSeek shock and keeps gaining steam
History is rhyming. One year ago, Chinese AI lab DeepSeek’s impressive artificial intelligence (AI) models wiped over half a trillion dollars in value from US chip designer Nvidia’s stock alone in a s...
www.piie.com
February 9, 2026 at 3:28 PM
The year has started with doubts about the prospects for US AI labs and cloud computing firms due to rising debt, depreciation, and circular vendor financing. Martin Chorzempa writes that revisiting 2025’s DeepSeek shock can shine light on the AI boom’s prospects going forward.
Diversification of critical minerals at scale requires allies to accept near-term costs to reduce dependence on China by coordinating their supply chains & procurement more closely. But, US political stability are now part of allies’ risk calculations, Cullen Hendrix explains.
Is the US posing a hidden risk in the West’s critical minerals strategy?
The Trump administration’s recent official guidance on supply chain vulnerabilities related to critical minerals reached a striking conclusion. US policymakers are acknowledging that the United States...
www.piie.com
February 6, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Diversification of critical minerals at scale requires allies to accept near-term costs to reduce dependence on China by coordinating their supply chains & procurement more closely. But, US political stability are now part of allies’ risk calculations, Cullen Hendrix explains.
AGENDA UPDATE: At 12:30 PM ET, @adamposen.bsky.social will present new inflation forecasts from his recent collaborative work with Peter Orszag: "The Risk of Higher US Inflation in 2026." Stream it live below.
The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era
During the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation in the United States and many other countries surged to its highest level in more than 40 years, inflicting enormous pain on households and bu...
www.piie.com
February 6, 2026 at 3:39 PM
AGENDA UPDATE: At 12:30 PM ET, @adamposen.bsky.social will present new inflation forecasts from his recent collaborative work with Peter Orszag: "The Risk of Higher US Inflation in 2026." Stream it live below.
NOW: Conference examining the the world's worst inflation in 40 years—from COVID-19, exploring supply-side disruptions, demand dynamics, fiscal & monetary policy, & more.
Watch: https://www.piie.com/events/2026/worst-inflation-outbreak-40-years-conference-distilling-lessons-covid-era
Watch: https://www.piie.com/events/2026/worst-inflation-outbreak-40-years-conference-distilling-lessons-covid-era
February 6, 2026 at 3:28 PM
NOW: Conference examining the the world's worst inflation in 40 years—from COVID-19, exploring supply-side disruptions, demand dynamics, fiscal & monetary policy, & more.
Watch: https://www.piie.com/events/2026/worst-inflation-outbreak-40-years-conference-distilling-lessons-covid-era
Watch: https://www.piie.com/events/2026/worst-inflation-outbreak-40-years-conference-distilling-lessons-covid-era
The trade deals with the EU and the US, along with other reforms recently implemented hold the potential to transform India into a paragon of openness and a manufacturing powerhouse, Arvind Subramanian argues in the Economist.
India may be about to become one of the world’s most open economies
New trade deals could make it a manufacturing powerhouse, reckons Arvind Subramanian
www.economist.com
February 6, 2026 at 3:18 PM
The trade deals with the EU and the US, along with other reforms recently implemented hold the potential to transform India into a paragon of openness and a manufacturing powerhouse, Arvind Subramanian argues in the Economist.
The Trump administration’s trade team has vowed to employ alternative legal tools to keep its tariffs in place if the US Supreme Court invalidates them. But each legal tool is limited in its use and applicability, Alan Wm. Wolff writes.
Can Trump keep his tariffs if the Supreme Court invalidates them?
The Trump administration’s trade team has vowed to employ alternative legal strategies to keep its high tariff wall in place if the Supreme Court invalidates President Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal tar...
www.piie.com
February 5, 2026 at 6:12 PM
The Trump administration’s trade team has vowed to employ alternative legal tools to keep its tariffs in place if the US Supreme Court invalidates them. But each legal tool is limited in its use and applicability, Alan Wm. Wolff writes.
Rather than the European Union as a single institution, subsets of EU members together with nonmembers will drive European rearmament & the establishment of a largely independent long-term military deterrent to Russia.
The European Union and the war in Ukraine: More money, but not more Europe
Despite the increasingly direct military threat from Russia and a weakening US commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union’s 27 member states have proven unwilling ...
www.piie.com
February 5, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Rather than the European Union as a single institution, subsets of EU members together with nonmembers will drive European rearmament & the establishment of a largely independent long-term military deterrent to Russia.
Scenario planning for AI is not about predicting the future—it's about equipping institutions & policymakers with frameworks and tools that help them respond across a range of plausible outcomes, new PIIE fellow Anton Korinek & IMF's Era Dabla-Norris write.
AI futures: Planning for transformative scenarios before they hit
The vast uncertainties about the evolution of artificial intelligence necessitate scenario planning to prepare for the future. Fiscal, monetary, and financial policymakers may all require future polic...
www.piie.com
February 4, 2026 at 6:42 PM
Scenario planning for AI is not about predicting the future—it's about equipping institutions & policymakers with frameworks and tools that help them respond across a range of plausible outcomes, new PIIE fellow Anton Korinek & IMF's Era Dabla-Norris write.
US two-way trade with nearly all 19 trading partners that negotiated tariffs with Trump grew significantly slower than world trade in 2025.
Trump's trade war wrecked little havoc on trade patterns last year
President Donald Trump’s trade wars, including his near universal tariffs of 10 percent or higher, set off a scramble among US trade partners last year that some experts predicted would reshape the co...
www.piie.com
February 4, 2026 at 4:38 PM
US two-way trade with nearly all 19 trading partners that negotiated tariffs with Trump grew significantly slower than world trade in 2025.
The deals with foreign countries pledging to invest in the US suffer from a lack of clarity on investment timing & decision-making process, raising doubts over politicization of investment decisions & whether the countries can fulfill them.
America First investment pledges: Big numbers but uncertain results
In July 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced "a strategic realignment of the US-Japan economic relationship,” including a Japanese commitment to invest $550 billion to “rebuild and expand core American industries” in projects to be approved by Trum...
www.piie.com
February 3, 2026 at 5:37 PM
The deals with foreign countries pledging to invest in the US suffer from a lack of clarity on investment timing & decision-making process, raising doubts over politicization of investment decisions & whether the countries can fulfill them.
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
What happens to global food security if U.S. food aid keeps retreating?
Our new @piie.com brief looks at a transformative possibility: the gap may be filled not by traditional donors — but by BRICS+ countries and biotechnology.
www.piie.com/publications...
1/5
Our new @piie.com brief looks at a transformative possibility: the gap may be filled not by traditional donors — but by BRICS+ countries and biotechnology.
www.piie.com/publications...
1/5
As US food aid retreats, can BRICS+ and biotechnology fill the world’s food security gap?
Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many...
www.piie.com
February 3, 2026 at 2:25 PM
What happens to global food security if U.S. food aid keeps retreating?
Our new @piie.com brief looks at a transformative possibility: the gap may be filled not by traditional donors — but by BRICS+ countries and biotechnology.
www.piie.com/publications...
1/5
Our new @piie.com brief looks at a transformative possibility: the gap may be filled not by traditional donors — but by BRICS+ countries and biotechnology.
www.piie.com/publications...
1/5
NEW: Perhaps surprisingly, there has been very little reconfiguration of global trade, at least through October of 2025. Two-way trade with the United States as a share of total trade changed very little among 19 impacted foreign partners trading with the United States in 2025.
Trump's trade war wrecked little havoc on trade patterns last year
President Donald Trump’s trade wars, including his near universal tariffs of 10 percent or higher, set off a scramble among US trade partners last year that some experts predicted would reshape the co...
www.piie.com
February 2, 2026 at 3:56 PM
NEW: Perhaps surprisingly, there has been very little reconfiguration of global trade, at least through October of 2025. Two-way trade with the United States as a share of total trade changed very little among 19 impacted foreign partners trading with the United States in 2025.
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Huge thanks to @pkrugman.bsky.social for the invite to be on the show — really fun conversation on all things trade policy, tariffs, and global weirdness.
Also confirming for family record-keeping purposes: this is indeed my “talking to a Nobel Laureate” face.
Also confirming for family record-keeping purposes: this is indeed my “talking to a Nobel Laureate” face.
Talking with Chad Bown
YouTube video by Paul Krugman
youtu.be
January 31, 2026 at 2:25 PM
Huge thanks to @pkrugman.bsky.social for the invite to be on the show — really fun conversation on all things trade policy, tariffs, and global weirdness.
Also confirming for family record-keeping purposes: this is indeed my “talking to a Nobel Laureate” face.
Also confirming for family record-keeping purposes: this is indeed my “talking to a Nobel Laureate” face.
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Since 2017 progress combatting hunger has stalled. It's set to get even harder.
Climate shocks and conflict are driving up hunger while food aid from advanced economies — especially the US — has pulled back.
Can BRICS+ countries and biotech innovation step in to fill it?
My latest for @piie.com.
Climate shocks and conflict are driving up hunger while food aid from advanced economies — especially the US — has pulled back.
Can BRICS+ countries and biotech innovation step in to fill it?
My latest for @piie.com.
NEW: Many food-insecure developing economies with significant hunger lack the resources to self-finance agricultural R&D & have to depend on themselves—& one another—to meet rising food needs. @cullenhendrix.bsky.social argues that BRICS+ are well positioned to fill the world’s food security gap.
As US food aid retreats, can BRICS+ and biotechnology fill the world’s food security gap?
Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many...
www.piie.com
January 30, 2026 at 5:03 PM
Since 2017 progress combatting hunger has stalled. It's set to get even harder.
Climate shocks and conflict are driving up hunger while food aid from advanced economies — especially the US — has pulled back.
Can BRICS+ countries and biotech innovation step in to fill it?
My latest for @piie.com.
Climate shocks and conflict are driving up hunger while food aid from advanced economies — especially the US — has pulled back.
Can BRICS+ countries and biotech innovation step in to fill it?
My latest for @piie.com.
On February 6, we're holding a conference on lessons from COVID-19 inflation.
Register to watch: www.piie.com/events/2026/...
Read the project overview: www.piie.com/publications...
Register to watch: www.piie.com/events/2026/...
Read the project overview: www.piie.com/publications...
January 30, 2026 at 3:41 PM
On February 6, we're holding a conference on lessons from COVID-19 inflation.
Register to watch: www.piie.com/events/2026/...
Read the project overview: www.piie.com/publications...
Register to watch: www.piie.com/events/2026/...
Read the project overview: www.piie.com/publications...
NEW: Many food-insecure developing economies with significant hunger lack the resources to self-finance agricultural R&D & have to depend on themselves—& one another—to meet rising food needs. @cullenhendrix.bsky.social argues that BRICS+ are well positioned to fill the world’s food security gap.
As US food aid retreats, can BRICS+ and biotechnology fill the world’s food security gap?
Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many...
www.piie.com
January 30, 2026 at 2:37 PM
NEW: Many food-insecure developing economies with significant hunger lack the resources to self-finance agricultural R&D & have to depend on themselves—& one another—to meet rising food needs. @cullenhendrix.bsky.social argues that BRICS+ are well positioned to fill the world’s food security gap.
Countries in Trump's "America First" investment agenda vary in ability to fulfill pledges. Switzerland & Japan appear relatively well positioned. Yet some Gulf Cooperation Council countries appear less likely to meet the pledge without adjusting external balances. #PIIECharts
January 29, 2026 at 5:42 PM
Countries in Trump's "America First" investment agenda vary in ability to fulfill pledges. Switzerland & Japan appear relatively well positioned. Yet some Gulf Cooperation Council countries appear less likely to meet the pledge without adjusting external balances. #PIIECharts
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Latest from PIIE's Karen Dynan and David Wilcox! The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons www.piie.com/publications...
The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons
The COVID era inflation surge was shaped by an unusual confluence of shocks and policy responses. It nonetheless raises enduring questions about the interaction of demand, supply, expectations, and po...
www.piie.com
January 29, 2026 at 3:39 PM
Latest from PIIE's Karen Dynan and David Wilcox! The COVID era inflation surge: Causes, consequences, and policy lessons www.piie.com/publications...
Ahead of the conference, read an overview of the “Understanding the COVID Era Inflation" project here:
January 29, 2026 at 4:12 PM
Ahead of the conference, read an overview of the “Understanding the COVID Era Inflation" project here:
The deals with foreign countries pledging to invest in the US suffer from a lack of clarity on investment timing & decision-making process, raising doubts over politicization of investment decisions & whether the countries have the resources or determination to fulfill them.
America First investment pledges: Big numbers but uncertain results
In July 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced "a strategic realignment of the US-Japan economic relationship,” including a Japanese commitment to invest $550 billion to “rebuild and expand core Am...
www.piie.com
January 28, 2026 at 2:12 PM
The deals with foreign countries pledging to invest in the US suffer from a lack of clarity on investment timing & decision-making process, raising doubts over politicization of investment decisions & whether the countries have the resources or determination to fulfill them.
FEBRUARY 6: A conference examining the many different facets of the world's worst inflation in 40 years—from COVID-19. Experts will explore supply-side disruptions, demand dynamics, labor markets, fiscal & monetary policy interactions, international spillovers, & more.
Info & register to watch:
Info & register to watch:
The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era
During the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation in the United States and many other countries surged to its highest level in more than 40 years, inflicting enormous pain on households and bu...
www.piie.com
January 27, 2026 at 5:34 PM
FEBRUARY 6: A conference examining the many different facets of the world's worst inflation in 40 years—from COVID-19. Experts will explore supply-side disruptions, demand dynamics, labor markets, fiscal & monetary policy interactions, international spillovers, & more.
Info & register to watch:
Info & register to watch:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Latest from PIIE's Mazarei and Auclair: The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic? (Spoiler Alert: May be less than meets the eye) www.piie.com/publications...
The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic?
In pursuit of President Donald J. Trump’s “America First” agenda, the administration has engaged in high-level bilateral negotiations with allies and partners to encourage them to invest in US industr...
www.piie.com
January 27, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Latest from PIIE's Mazarei and Auclair: The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic? (Spoiler Alert: May be less than meets the eye) www.piie.com/publications...
FEBRUARY 4: Chrystia Freeland joins @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social to discuss the increasing weaponization of trade & threats of tariffs used for hardcore geopolitics, how it affects Canada, the upcoming USMCA review, & more.
Info & register:
Info & register:
The securitization of trade: Where is globalization going? A conversation with Chrystia Freeland
The year 2026 has certainly started dramatically, not least in the trade area. We see an increasing weaponization of trade and threats of tariffs used for hardcore geopolitics. How should we interpret...
www.piie.com
January 27, 2026 at 3:31 PM
FEBRUARY 4: Chrystia Freeland joins @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social to discuss the increasing weaponization of trade & threats of tariffs used for hardcore geopolitics, how it affects Canada, the upcoming USMCA review, & more.
Info & register:
Info & register:
NEW: Trading partners have pledged to invest over $5 trillion in the US. But timelines are long, with little explanation of accountability mechanisms or ability of countries to pay.
Adnan Mazarei & Greg Auclair explore "America First" investment pledges:
Adnan Mazarei & Greg Auclair explore "America First" investment pledges:
The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic?
In pursuit of President Donald J. Trump’s “America First” agenda, the administration has engaged in high-level bilateral negotiations with allies and partners to encourage them to invest in US industr...
www.piie.com
January 27, 2026 at 2:02 PM
NEW: Trading partners have pledged to invest over $5 trillion in the US. But timelines are long, with little explanation of accountability mechanisms or ability of countries to pay.
Adnan Mazarei & Greg Auclair explore "America First" investment pledges:
Adnan Mazarei & Greg Auclair explore "America First" investment pledges:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard analyzes drivers of Europe's rearmament, especially military aid to Ukraine, & how aid is increasingly being provided by “coalitions of the willing” made of subsets of EU members & others, working with Ukraine's military industrial sector.
The European Union and the war in Ukraine: More money, but not more Europe
Despite the increasingly direct military threat from Russia and a weakening US commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union’s 27 member states have proven unwilling ...
www.piie.com
January 26, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard analyzes drivers of Europe's rearmament, especially military aid to Ukraine, & how aid is increasingly being provided by “coalitions of the willing” made of subsets of EU members & others, working with Ukraine's military industrial sector.