Peterson Institute for International Economics
@piie.com
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy.
Explore our research: piie.com
Explore our research: piie.com
Average US tariffs on China: 47.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
December 24, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Average US tariffs on China: 47.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
We have once again updated our trade war timeline:
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide
President Donald Trump started his second term in office with momentous plans to change US trade policy to achieve various economic and nontrade related aims. This timeline tracks the development of t...
www.piie.com
December 24, 2025 at 3:25 PM
We have once again updated our trade war timeline:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
New piece in @nytopinion.nytimes.com trying to explain the GDP boom combined with job bust. I don't have a definitive answer--in fact I'm skeptical of grand unified theories given how the data is often revised and noisy. As always, only update a little on this news. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/o...
Opinion | Economic Growth Is Up. Unemployment Is, Too. What’s Going On?
www.nytimes.com
December 23, 2025 at 3:30 PM
New piece in @nytopinion.nytimes.com trying to explain the GDP boom combined with job bust. I don't have a definitive answer--in fact I'm skeptical of grand unified theories given how the data is often revised and noisy. As always, only update a little on this news. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/o...
Make sure you're subscribed to our flagship newsletter PIIE Insider to receive our latest work, exclusive analysis, & more straight to your inbox: https://www.piie.com/subscribe
December 23, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Make sure you're subscribed to our flagship newsletter PIIE Insider to receive our latest work, exclusive analysis, & more straight to your inbox: https://www.piie.com/subscribe
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Chasing balanced agricultural trade in a high-income, high-consumption economy is chasing a white rabbit. My latest (ungated) for @barrons.com.
Now enjoy your hot cocoa (grown in Côte d'Ivoire) and ginger snaps (India, China, Nigeria).
Now enjoy your hot cocoa (grown in Côte d'Ivoire) and ginger snaps (India, China, Nigeria).
Fixing the U.S. Agricultural Trade Deficit is a Fool’s Errand
A forecast $50 billion deficit would be the largest in modern history, Cullen S. Hendrix writes in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
December 22, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Chasing balanced agricultural trade in a high-income, high-consumption economy is chasing a white rabbit. My latest (ungated) for @barrons.com.
Now enjoy your hot cocoa (grown in Côte d'Ivoire) and ginger snaps (India, China, Nigeria).
Now enjoy your hot cocoa (grown in Côte d'Ivoire) and ginger snaps (India, China, Nigeria).
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
My pet peeve about using GDP as a measure of national economic power. I suggest an adjustment that may get closer to reality. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
China vs. the US: Which GDP is bigger?
Has China yet surpassed the United States in aggregate economic power? Perhaps not. Although China’s GDP, at market prices and exchange rates, is still much lower than that of the United States, the o...
www.piie.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:21 PM
My pet peeve about using GDP as a measure of national economic power. I suggest an adjustment that may get closer to reality. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Check out our most read pieces of 2025 👇
PIIE's most read pieces of 2025
Every year, I write this roundup, and every year, I start it with some variation of "what a year it's been!" Reader, what a year 2025 has been. Here are our most read pieces published this year. We ar...
www.piie.com
December 22, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Check out our most read pieces of 2025 👇
Although China's GDP at purchasing power parity is ahead of the United States, its economic power may still be lower. Patrick Honohan explains:
China vs. the US: Which GDP is bigger?
Has China yet surpassed the United States in aggregate economic power? Perhaps not. Although China’s GDP, at market prices and exchange rates, is still much lower than that of the United States, the o...
www.piie.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Although China's GDP at purchasing power parity is ahead of the United States, its economic power may still be lower. Patrick Honohan explains:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Adam Posen (@piie.com & CEPR) joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss how the multilateral order is changing, how countries are adjusting to the new global trade environment, and whether globalisation as we once knew it can return
Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris
cepr.org/multimedia/f...
#EconSky
Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris
cepr.org/multimedia/f...
#EconSky
December 19, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Adam Posen (@piie.com & CEPR) joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss how the multilateral order is changing, how countries are adjusting to the new global trade environment, and whether globalisation as we once knew it can return
Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris
cepr.org/multimedia/f...
#EconSky
Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris
cepr.org/multimedia/f...
#EconSky
ICYMI: @mdebolle.com joined PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss economic nationalism in the US & Latin America, China's presence in South America, Argentina's economy, & more.
Watch here or listen wherever you get podcasts:
Watch here or listen wherever you get podcasts:
Monica de Bolle on Latin America's changing role in the global economy
YouTube video by Peterson Institute for International Economics
www.youtube.com
December 18, 2025 at 6:34 PM
ICYMI: @mdebolle.com joined PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss economic nationalism in the US & Latin America, China's presence in South America, Argentina's economy, & more.
Watch here or listen wherever you get podcasts:
Watch here or listen wherever you get podcasts:
The Fed acting more like a committee is a healthy way to turn the page on the era when the chair was treated as some sort of maestro, oracle or wizard with an omniscient understanding of the economy & omnipotent powers to steer it, @jasonfurman.bsky.social writes.
Opinion | Donald Trump May Be About to Pick the Least Important Fed Chair in Decades
www.nytimes.com
December 18, 2025 at 3:56 PM
The Fed acting more like a committee is a healthy way to turn the page on the era when the chair was treated as some sort of maestro, oracle or wizard with an omniscient understanding of the economy & omnipotent powers to steer it, @jasonfurman.bsky.social writes.
Kenneth Rogoff & Takeshi Tashiro revisit Japan’s "exorbitant privilege" case, particularly the persistent excess return on its external balance sheet. Retaining this privilege is conditional on Japan managing debt dynamics & keeping inflation under control.
Perspectives on Japan’s continuing exorbitant privilege
With renewed doubt about the scale, scope, and even the sign of the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege,” Rogoff and Tashiro revisit Japan’s case, in particular, the persistent excess return on its externa...
www.piie.com
December 17, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Kenneth Rogoff & Takeshi Tashiro revisit Japan’s "exorbitant privilege" case, particularly the persistent excess return on its external balance sheet. Retaining this privilege is conditional on Japan managing debt dynamics & keeping inflation under control.
NEW: World Bank's Cornelius Fleischhaker joins @mdebolle.com on Policy for the Planet to discuss potential paths for Brazil to tackle its fiscal problems while encouraging more climate-friendly policies.
Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/experts/podc...
Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/experts/podc...
Can Brazil's fiscal policy address environmental concerns? (Episode 23)
Brazil has made many attempts to reform its fiscal problems, while never adequately addressing its increasingly burdensome government debt. At the same time, the country is home to the Amazon rainfore...
www.piie.com
December 16, 2025 at 2:34 PM
NEW: World Bank's Cornelius Fleischhaker joins @mdebolle.com on Policy for the Planet to discuss potential paths for Brazil to tackle its fiscal problems while encouraging more climate-friendly policies.
Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/experts/podc...
Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/experts/podc...
The PIIE Briefing of essays from our October conference on central bank independence in practice is now available here:
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a high-level conference in October 2025 in Washington, DC, to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. The g...
www.piie.com
December 15, 2025 at 8:51 PM
The PIIE Briefing of essays from our October conference on central bank independence in practice is now available here:
UPDATED: As of September 2025, tariff revenues since January 2025 totaled $179 billion, contributing just 9.6% of the projected federal budget deficit.
Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
December 15, 2025 at 5:38 PM
UPDATED: As of September 2025, tariff revenues since January 2025 totaled $179 billion, contributing just 9.6% of the projected federal budget deficit.
Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...
Alan Wm. Wolff explains six ways the Supreme Court case on the IEEPA tariffs could go:
Will the Supreme Court determine the fate of the Trump tariffs?
A decision by the Supreme Court on the legality of President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs could be delivered any day now. The president has warned that throwing out the tariffs would create an ...
www.piie.com
December 10, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Alan Wm. Wolff explains six ways the Supreme Court case on the IEEPA tariffs could go:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Our new @piie.com Working Paper on Russia’s war-induced regional convergence with @eribakova.bsky.social & @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social now out! @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi
Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺
www.piie.com/publications...
Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺
www.piie.com/publications...
War-induced economic convergence in Russian regions
This paper examines the impact of Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Russia’s economy at a subnational, or “regional,” level. The analysis focuses on the regional disparities and converge...
www.piie.com
December 9, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Our new @piie.com Working Paper on Russia’s war-induced regional convergence with @eribakova.bsky.social & @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social now out! @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi
Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺
www.piie.com/publications...
Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺
www.piie.com/publications...
In Russia, there has been some convergence in regional wages & incomes during the war. However, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain due to the misallocation of resources & the broader economic challenges the country faces.
War-induced economic convergence in Russian regions
This paper examines the impact of Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Russia’s economy at a subnational, or “regional,” level. The analysis focuses on the regional disparities and converge...
www.piie.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:31 PM
In Russia, there has been some convergence in regional wages & incomes during the war. However, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain due to the misallocation of resources & the broader economic challenges the country faces.
Join us for an event featuring @eribakova.bsky.social, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, & Maurice Obstfeld discussing this & more on December 11: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
The lesson is clear, @eribakova.bsky.social writes in @financialtimes.com. Together, European financing & Ukrainian ingenuity can build an effective deterrent against external threats, even as the US pulls back.
Ukraine, Europe and the new economics of war
By maintaining stability and innovating to hold out against Russia, Kyiv has shown that size matters less in conflict than it used to
www.ft.com
December 8, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Join us for an event featuring @eribakova.bsky.social, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, & Maurice Obstfeld discussing this & more on December 11: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
The US Trade Representative is due to send a report to Congress on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (#USMCA) in January, ahead of the July 2026 review of the agreement.
Learn everything you need to know from our guide to the USMCA here:
Learn everything you need to know from our guide to the USMCA here:
The future of the USMCA
What’s next for US trade relations with Canada and Mexico as Trump threatens withdrawing from the trade deal.
www.piie.com
December 8, 2025 at 5:46 PM
The US Trade Representative is due to send a report to Congress on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (#USMCA) in January, ahead of the July 2026 review of the agreement.
Learn everything you need to know from our guide to the USMCA here:
Learn everything you need to know from our guide to the USMCA here:
The lesson is clear, @eribakova.bsky.social writes in @financialtimes.com. Together, European financing & Ukrainian ingenuity can build an effective deterrent against external threats, even as the US pulls back.
Ukraine, Europe and the new economics of war
By maintaining stability and innovating to hold out against Russia, Kyiv has shown that size matters less in conflict than it used to
www.ft.com
December 8, 2025 at 3:13 PM
The lesson is clear, @eribakova.bsky.social writes in @financialtimes.com. Together, European financing & Ukrainian ingenuity can build an effective deterrent against external threats, even as the US pulls back.
There were a lot of good reasons to think that the tariffs were going to take awhile to take affect...but it will happen, & frankly, it's happening right now, @adamposen.bsky.social tells @financialtimes.com.
Listen to the whole Unhedged podcast here or wherever you get podcasts:
Listen to the whole Unhedged podcast here or wherever you get podcasts:
A satanic list of inflationary factors
Weighing the weakening of institutions
www.ft.com
December 5, 2025 at 4:47 PM
There were a lot of good reasons to think that the tariffs were going to take awhile to take affect...but it will happen, & frankly, it's happening right now, @adamposen.bsky.social tells @financialtimes.com.
Listen to the whole Unhedged podcast here or wherever you get podcasts:
Listen to the whole Unhedged podcast here or wherever you get podcasts:
@kclausing.bsky.social testified to the US House Ways & Means Committee Subcommittee on Tax that the most direct way to promote global competitiveness for American businesses & workers is to remove the Trump Administration tariffs.
Read the full testimony:
Read the full testimony:
Promoting Global Competitiveness for American Businesses and Workers
Chairman Kelly, Ranking Member Thompson, Members of the Committee: Thank you for inviting me to share my views on US global competitiveness. In my testimony today, I will make four key points that sha...
www.piie.com
December 5, 2025 at 4:02 PM
@kclausing.bsky.social testified to the US House Ways & Means Committee Subcommittee on Tax that the most direct way to promote global competitiveness for American businesses & workers is to remove the Trump Administration tariffs.
Read the full testimony:
Read the full testimony:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Choking off the supply of student-grade instruments with tariffs means fewer players (and customers) for US instrument makers down the line.
This is eating an industry's seed corn. My latest for @piie.com.
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
This is eating an industry's seed corn. My latest for @piie.com.
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The trade war’s hidden victims: Beginner musicians and school music budgets
This holiday season, aspiring musicians may be priced out before they ever unwrap their first instrument—courtesy of US tariff policy. With eight months of trade data to assess, the effects of the Tru...
www.piie.com
December 5, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Choking off the supply of student-grade instruments with tariffs means fewer players (and customers) for US instrument makers down the line.
This is eating an industry's seed corn. My latest for @piie.com.
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
This is eating an industry's seed corn. My latest for @piie.com.
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Learn more here: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
December 4, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Learn more here: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...