Jed Kolko
@jedkolko.bsky.social
Sr fellow @piie.com. Sr advisor JPMC Institute. Was Under Secretary Econ Affairs at Commerce Dept and chief economist at Indeed and Trulia. Contact at http://jedkolko.com
Reposted by Jed Kolko
"Trade wars screw up other things."
Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.
Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.
November 7, 2025 at 2:51 PM
"Trade wars screw up other things."
Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.
Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.
Requiem for a Jobs Report
Today marks the second missing jobs report. Damage is piling up
open.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Never a good sign when the best available data about the labor market is UI claims. (Though glad to have them.)
Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.
Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.
We now have unemployment claims data for all 50 states for the week ending 10/25. Still no sign of a big uptick in initial claims. (Note that these charts do NOT include federal workers -- see down thread for those.) #NumbersDay #EconSky
November 3, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Never a good sign when the best available data about the labor market is UI claims. (Though glad to have them.)
Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.
Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.
Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP.
The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.
New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.
New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
What the government shutdown teaches us about private sector data
The government shutdown provides an unexpected test case for an increasingly urgent question: What would happen if official economic statistics became less useful, whether through declining resources,...
www.piie.com
October 30, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP.
The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.
New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.
New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Is the payroll data that ADP just announced they're publishing weekly the same or different from what ADP was sharing with the @federalreserve.gov until recently?
(And, if different, how?)
(And, if different, how?)
October 29, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Is the payroll data that ADP just announced they're publishing weekly the same or different from what ADP was sharing with the @federalreserve.gov until recently?
(And, if different, how?)
(And, if different, how?)
Reposted by Jed Kolko
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks
The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...
www.piie.com
October 9, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Reposted by Jed Kolko
12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6.
“The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...”
www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
#econsky
“The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...”
www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
#econsky
www.banking.senate.gov
September 24, 2025 at 2:20 AM
12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6.
“The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...”
www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
#econsky
“The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...”
www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
#econsky
Reposted by Jed Kolko
DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data
That reported multi-million decline in US immigrants just doesn’t add up
The recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showing that there were 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the US in July 2025 than in January is almost certainly wrong.
www.piie.com
September 23, 2025 at 4:04 PM
DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data
Reposted by Jed Kolko
Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.
TOMORROW: @veron.bsky.social hosts a new virtual series & podcast What now, Europe?—chatting with experts & practitioners on Europe's future in a turbulent new era.
Participate live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/ukraines-future-european-union
Participate live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/ukraines-future-european-union
September 22, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.
Update:
The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.
The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.
September 22, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Update:
The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.
The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.
The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.
September 20, 2025 at 1:32 PM
The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.
Reposted by Jed Kolko
There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling.
So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure.
The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.
So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure.
The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.
September 19, 2025 at 11:53 PM
There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling.
So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure.
The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.
So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure.
The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.
Reposted by Jed Kolko
#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency.
Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll.
www.bls.gov/cex/notices/...
#econsky
Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll.
www.bls.gov/cex/notices/...
#econsky
Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled
Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled (9/19/2025)
www.bls.gov
September 19, 2025 at 10:17 PM
#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency.
Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll.
www.bls.gov/cex/notices/...
#econsky
Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll.
www.bls.gov/cex/notices/...
#econsky
Why do businesses need credible official economic data?
Come find out!
2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual
www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...
Come find out!
2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual
www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...
The importance of credible government economic data to business | Brookings
On September 18, Brookings will host former BLS commissioners, government officials, private-sector leaders, and economists to discuss data integrity.
www.brookings.edu
September 18, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Why do businesses need credible official economic data?
Come find out!
2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual
www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...
Come find out!
2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual
www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...
Reposted by Jed Kolko
Steve Moore (!): Trump aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing—in part through steel and aluminum tariffs. But ...Trump’s order to raise the tax on imported aluminum to 50% will almost certainly cost far more manufacturing jobs than it will save. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs on Aluminum Kill U.S. Factory Jobs
They’re costly for companies that use the metal to make things—including recyclers.
www.wsj.com
September 18, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Steve Moore (!): Trump aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing—in part through steel and aluminum tariffs. But ...Trump’s order to raise the tax on imported aluminum to 50% will almost certainly cost far more manufacturing jobs than it will save. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
The Fed expects slower GDP growth than the White House does -- especially 2026 onward.
One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.
One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.
September 17, 2025 at 6:06 PM
The Fed expects slower GDP growth than the White House does -- especially 2026 onward.
One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.
One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.
Reposted by Jed Kolko
NEW: At her confirmation hearing, Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, avoided directly answering whether she agrees the president is unable to conduct a new census before 2030 unless Congress passes a law
September 17, 2025 at 3:48 PM
NEW: At her confirmation hearing, Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, avoided directly answering whether she agrees the president is unable to conduct a new census before 2030 unless Congress passes a law
Fed nerds: would Miran have a projection in the SEP today, or would timing be too tight for his projection to be prepared and included?
As CEA director, Miran likely signed off on Trump's recent comical budget claim that GDP will be 3%+ in 2026-2027 and longer-term 2.9%.
This is far outside the ~1.8-2% consensus from Blue Chip, CBO, and, notably, the FOMC. Will he make one big outlier datum in the FOMC projections tomorrow?
This is far outside the ~1.8-2% consensus from Blue Chip, CBO, and, notably, the FOMC. Will he make one big outlier datum in the FOMC projections tomorrow?
September 17, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Fed nerds: would Miran have a projection in the SEP today, or would timing be too tight for his projection to be prepared and included?
The person who could reshape US economic statistics -- including oversight of the BLS -- has their Senate confirmation hearing at 10 am today.
Today: hearing for Joyce Meyer, nominee for Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs.
Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce.
www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...
Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce.
www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...
Senate Commerce Announces Hearing for NTSB, OSTP, and Commerce Nominees
WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, will convene a nominations hearing for nominees of the National Transport...
www.commerce.senate.gov
September 17, 2025 at 12:31 PM
The person who could reshape US economic statistics -- including oversight of the BLS -- has their Senate confirmation hearing at 10 am today.
Today: hearing for Joyce Meyer, nominee for Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs.
Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce.
www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...
Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce.
www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...
Senate Commerce Announces Hearing for NTSB, OSTP, and Commerce Nominees
WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, will convene a nominations hearing for nominees of the National Transport...
www.commerce.senate.gov
September 17, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Today: hearing for Joyce Meyer, nominee for Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs.
Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce.
www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...
Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce.
www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...
Today, Congressional Budget Office lowered its GDP growth projection for 2025 and raised it for 2026. Revision reflects 2025 reconciliation act, tariffs, and lower immigration.
CBO's projections still well below White House assumptions, esp for 2026-2028.
CBO's projections still well below White House assumptions, esp for 2026-2028.
September 12, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Today, Congressional Budget Office lowered its GDP growth projection for 2025 and raised it for 2026. Revision reflects 2025 reconciliation act, tariffs, and lower immigration.
CBO's projections still well below White House assumptions, esp for 2026-2028.
CBO's projections still well below White House assumptions, esp for 2026-2028.
Inbox: American Community Survey (ACS) Data Users Group Online Community is shutting down. Has 7000 members; operating since 2013.
Big loss to users of the ACS, the key source of economic, societal, and demographic information about local communities.
Big loss to users of the ACS, the key source of economic, societal, and demographic information about local communities.
September 12, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Inbox: American Community Survey (ACS) Data Users Group Online Community is shutting down. Has 7000 members; operating since 2013.
Big loss to users of the ACS, the key source of economic, societal, and demographic information about local communities.
Big loss to users of the ACS, the key source of economic, societal, and demographic information about local communities.
Reposted by Jed Kolko
Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & several other industries in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts
September 12, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & several other industries in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts
Reposted by Jed Kolko
NEW: The confirmation hearing for Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, is set to take place Sept. 17 before the Senate Commerce Committee
Senate Commerce Announces Hearing for NTSB, OSTP, and Commerce Nominees
WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, will convene a nominations hearing for nominees of the National Transport...
www.commerce.senate.gov
September 11, 2025 at 8:09 PM
NEW: The confirmation hearing for Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, is set to take place Sept. 17 before the Senate Commerce Committee