Methodologies diverge. ADP reflects preliminary benchmark revision, while BLS payrolls won't until Jan 2026. That's extra reason for not drawing conclusions with precision.

ADP as published: -32k
ADP w/o revision: +11k

Plus, must weigh this all against a low breakeven rate!

To be clear: this is bad! An essential data release is being delayed without explanation, at a time when the Administration has expressed distrust in BLS data.

There are real and immediate threats to the US statistical system. But be clear about the threats. Delaying CEX is not the same as, say, suppressing or fudging CPI to hide bad news.

The CEX delay is likely due to resource cuts, not meddling. BLS has lost lots of staff and expertise.

An extended delay COULD lead to politically-influenced choices about how to weight the CPI in the absence of needed CEX inputs. But that's not where we are today.

CEX reports on patterns of consumer spending, by category and demographics -- e.g. how much do older adults spend on food.

The spending mix is critical for calculating inflation: it shows how to combine prices of eggs, airplane tickets, TVs, etc. into an overall price level.

There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling.
So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure.
The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.