Ben Casselman
@bencasselman.bsky.social
Chief Economics Correspondent for The New York Times. Adjunct at CUNY Newmark. Ex: FiveThirtyEight, WSJ. He/him.
Email: ben.casselman@nytimes.com
Signal: @bencasselman.96
📸: Earl Wilson/NYT
Email: ben.casselman@nytimes.com
Signal: @bencasselman.96
📸: Earl Wilson/NYT
Job openings fell sharply in December, to their lowest level since September 2020. I would caution, though, that we've seen several of these big moves that have either been revised away or have reversed the following month. #JOLTS
February 5, 2026 at 3:16 PM
Job openings fell sharply in December, to their lowest level since September 2020. I would caution, though, that we've seen several of these big moves that have either been revised away or have reversed the following month. #JOLTS
Job openings fell in December, but hiring, layoffs, quits all basically flat. No sign in #JOLTS that the labor market fell off a cliff at the end of the year.
www.bls.gov/news.release... #NumbersDay
www.bls.gov/news.release... #NumbersDay
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
- 2025 M12 Results
www.bls.gov
February 5, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Job openings fell in December, but hiring, layoffs, quits all basically flat. No sign in #JOLTS that the labor market fell off a cliff at the end of the year.
www.bls.gov/news.release... #NumbersDay
www.bls.gov/news.release... #NumbersDay
The January jobs report will come out on Wednesday, Feb. 11. CPI delayed to Friday, Feb. 13. JOLTS will come out tomorrow (Feb. 5). #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
Revised news release dates following lapse in appropriations
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
www.bls.gov
February 4, 2026 at 4:59 PM
The January jobs report will come out on Wednesday, Feb. 11. CPI delayed to Friday, Feb. 13. JOLTS will come out tomorrow (Feb. 5). #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
Another government shutdown, another delay in key economic data.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/b... #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/b... #NumbersDay #EconSky
Jobs Report Delayed Because of Partial Shutdown
www.nytimes.com
February 2, 2026 at 8:54 PM
Another government shutdown, another delay in key economic data.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/b... #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/b... #NumbersDay #EconSky
Just got confirmation from BLS: "The Employment Situation release for January 2026 will not be released as scheduled on Friday, February 6, 2026. The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding." #EconSky
February 2, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Just got confirmation from BLS: "The Employment Situation release for January 2026 will not be released as scheduled on Friday, February 6, 2026. The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding." #EconSky
It's official: President Trump will nominate Kevin M. Warsh as the next Fed chair.
www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #EconSky
Trump Administration Live Updates: Kevin Warsh Is Named Fed Chair
www.nytimes.com
January 30, 2026 at 12:06 PM
It's official: President Trump will nominate Kevin M. Warsh as the next Fed chair.
www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #EconSky
Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for Q4 was down sharply to 4.2%on today's trade and inventories data. Still well above most private-sector forecasts.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
#EconSky
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
#EconSky
January 29, 2026 at 5:24 PM
Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for Q4 was down sharply to 4.2%on today's trade and inventories data. Still well above most private-sector forecasts.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
#EconSky
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
#EconSky
The Federal Reserve, as widely expected, left interest rates unchanged after three-straight cuts at the end of 2025.
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #EconSky
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #EconSky
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some s
www.federalreserve.gov
January 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM
The Federal Reserve, as widely expected, left interest rates unchanged after three-straight cuts at the end of 2025.
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #EconSky
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #EconSky
Reposted by Ben Casselman
Hmm, how to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell about all the politics around the Fed without getting a "no comment"? Suggestions welcome! (And yes one option is just to skip it).
January 28, 2026 at 4:47 PM
Hmm, how to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell about all the politics around the Fed without getting a "no comment"? Suggestions welcome! (And yes one option is just to skip it).
Must-read post for labor data nerds from @JedKolko on the implications of the new Census pop. estimates. More on this to come, but three immediate takeaways:
jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea... #EconSky
jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea... #EconSky
Four takeaways from the new Census population estimates
Immigration declined dramatically. Census estimates now align with other government estimates. The 2026 Current Population Survey population base will be adjusted downward.
jedkolko.substack.com
January 28, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Must-read post for labor data nerds from @JedKolko on the implications of the new Census pop. estimates. More on this to come, but three immediate takeaways:
jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea... #EconSky
jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea... #EconSky
Paul Clement, Lisa Cook's attorney, re: for-cause dismissal and Fed independence: "If there's no judicial review then this is all kind of a joke."
January 21, 2026 at 4:10 PM
Paul Clement, Lisa Cook's attorney, re: for-cause dismissal and Fed independence: "If there's no judicial review then this is all kind of a joke."
Reposted by Ben Casselman
The economic consequences of President Trump have puzzled many, myself included. But many Trump policies make our economy weaker in the long run, even as they create short run disruption. An excellent read from @bencasselman.bsky.social in today's NYT (link follows).
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b...
Trump’s First Year Could Have Lasting Economic Consequences
www.nytimes.com
January 20, 2026 at 4:01 PM
The economic consequences of President Trump have puzzled many, myself included. But many Trump policies make our economy weaker in the long run, even as they create short run disruption. An excellent read from @bencasselman.bsky.social in today's NYT (link follows).
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b...
One year into his second term in office, what has Trump meant for the economy? Three stories taking a crack at that question.
January 20, 2026 at 2:04 PM
One year into his second term in office, what has Trump meant for the economy? Three stories taking a crack at that question.
Federal job cuts, the anti-DEI backlash and a broader cooldown in the labor market are hitting Black women especially hard. They are turning to each other to find their way through.
Important story from @jholman.bsky.social.
🎁🔗: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/b... #EconSky
Important story from @jholman.bsky.social.
🎁🔗: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/b... #EconSky
Black Women Turn to One Another as Their Career Paths Suddenly Recede
www.nytimes.com
January 20, 2026 at 1:46 PM
Federal job cuts, the anti-DEI backlash and a broader cooldown in the labor market are hitting Black women especially hard. They are turning to each other to find their way through.
Important story from @jholman.bsky.social.
🎁🔗: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/b... #EconSky
Important story from @jholman.bsky.social.
🎁🔗: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/b... #EconSky
Reposted by Ben Casselman
“We know from a lot of historical experience that the sort of things [Trump is] doing are antithetical to prosperity in the long run,” said Greg Mankiw. But it's impossible to know exactly when or where those consequences will be felt. via @bencasselman.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b...
Trump’s First Year Could Have Lasting Economic Consequences
www.nytimes.com
January 20, 2026 at 12:02 PM
“We know from a lot of historical experience that the sort of things [Trump is] doing are antithetical to prosperity in the long run,” said Greg Mankiw. But it's impossible to know exactly when or where those consequences will be felt. via @bencasselman.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b...
I get this question a lot (not always in such polite language), so worth addressing directly. (Short thread)
Sincere, non-rhetorical question: what agency is the source of these numbers? And how fully do you trust them?
January 13, 2026 at 3:32 PM
I get this question a lot (not always in such polite language), so worth addressing directly. (Short thread)
No full charts thread today because took me a while to clean up my code to handle the missing data. But a couple highlights:
Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in December and were up 2.7 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and fuel, were up 0.2 percent m/m and 2.6 percent y/y.
But note that the numbers were likely skewed by the lingering effects of the federal government shutdown. #NumbersDay
But note that the numbers were likely skewed by the lingering effects of the federal government shutdown. #NumbersDay
January 13, 2026 at 3:10 PM
No full charts thread today because took me a while to clean up my code to handle the missing data. But a couple highlights:
Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in December and were up 2.7 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and fuel, were up 0.2 percent m/m and 2.6 percent y/y.
But note that the numbers were likely skewed by the lingering effects of the federal government shutdown. #NumbersDay
But note that the numbers were likely skewed by the lingering effects of the federal government shutdown. #NumbersDay
January 13, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in December and were up 2.7 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and fuel, were up 0.2 percent m/m and 2.6 percent y/y.
But note that the numbers were likely skewed by the lingering effects of the federal government shutdown. #NumbersDay
But note that the numbers were likely skewed by the lingering effects of the federal government shutdown. #NumbersDay
I remember @mlheggeness.bsky.social telling me about the idea for this book at an AEA meeting three (?) years ago. Excited to dig in (and not *only* for the Taylor references).
January 12, 2026 at 8:27 PM
I remember @mlheggeness.bsky.social telling me about the idea for this book at an AEA meeting three (?) years ago. Excited to dig in (and not *only* for the Taylor references).
Charts! Starting with our first look at the full-year 2025. We added 584,000 jobs last year, the slowest pace of growth since 2020. (Note that both the 2024 and 2025 figures will likely be revised down when we get the benchmark revisions next month.) #NumbersDay
January 9, 2026 at 1:54 PM
Charts! Starting with our first look at the full-year 2025. We added 584,000 jobs last year, the slowest pace of growth since 2020. (Note that both the 2024 and 2025 figures will likely be revised down when we get the benchmark revisions next month.) #NumbersDay
U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #NumbersDay
Employment Situation Summary
- 2025 M11 Results
www.bls.gov
January 9, 2026 at 1:31 PM
U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01... #NumbersDay
Wow, GDP Now liked the trade data. (Wouldn't put a lot of stock into this yet given the lack of Q4 data.) #NumbersDay
January 8, 2026 at 5:55 PM
Wow, GDP Now liked the trade data. (Wouldn't put a lot of stock into this yet given the lack of Q4 data.) #NumbersDay
BEA says it will release October/November PCE data on Jan. 22. "For those CPIs that are not available for October, BEA will use an average of BLS’ September and November CPI data for its estimates included in the personal income and outlays report for October." #EconSky
January 7, 2026 at 8:53 PM
BEA says it will release October/November PCE data on Jan. 22. "For those CPIs that are not available for October, BEA will use an average of BLS’ September and November CPI data for its estimates included in the personal income and outlays report for October." #EconSky
"Low hire, low fire" labor market continued in November: Job openings, hires, quits all down (and downward revisions to October openings). But layoffs also down. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
- 2025 M11 Results
www.bls.gov
January 7, 2026 at 3:03 PM
"Low hire, low fire" labor market continued in November: Job openings, hires, quits all down (and downward revisions to October openings). But layoffs also down. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...