Ben Casselman
@bencasselman.bsky.social
Chief Economics Correspondent for The New York Times. Adjunct at CUNY Newmark. Ex: FiveThirtyEight, WSJ. He/him.
Email: ben.casselman@nytimes.com
Signal: @bencasselman.96
📸: Earl Wilson/NYT
Email: ben.casselman@nytimes.com
Signal: @bencasselman.96
📸: Earl Wilson/NYT
Heading to Philadelphia for the #ASSA2026. Presenting research you think our readers would be interested in? Working on something you think I should know about? Reach out here or by any of the ways linked in my bio: www.nytimes.com/by/ben-casse... #EconSky
Ben Casselman
Ben Casselman is the chief economics correspondent for The Times. He has reported on the economy for nearly 20 years.
www.nytimes.com
January 2, 2026 at 7:58 PM
Heading to Philadelphia for the #ASSA2026. Presenting research you think our readers would be interested in? Working on something you think I should know about? Reach out here or by any of the ways linked in my bio: www.nytimes.com/by/ben-casse... #EconSky
BLS clarifies that they will NOT do a one-off change of their rent/OER methodology in April, as their updated FAQ yesterday seemed to imply. h/t Omair Sharif, who I think was the first to pin them down on this. #EconSky #NumbersDay
December 31, 2025 at 2:56 PM
BLS clarifies that they will NOT do a one-off change of their rent/OER methodology in April, as their updated FAQ yesterday seemed to imply. h/t Omair Sharif, who I think was the first to pin them down on this. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Reposted by Ben Casselman
Just got a bit more from BLS on how they calculated November CPI.
This re: rent is particularly notable:
"Rents for October 2025 were carried forward from April 2025, yielding unchanged index values for rent and owners’ equivalent rent for October."
#NumbersDay
This re: rent is particularly notable:
"Rents for October 2025 were carried forward from April 2025, yielding unchanged index values for rent and owners’ equivalent rent for October."
#NumbersDay
BLS says it relied somewhat on "different cell" imputation in November than it did in September. And no use of "carry-forward." But it isn't providing detail on how it treated October, which is key to understanding these November figures.
December 18, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Just got a bit more from BLS on how they calculated November CPI.
This re: rent is particularly notable:
"Rents for October 2025 were carried forward from April 2025, yielding unchanged index values for rent and owners’ equivalent rent for October."
#NumbersDay
This re: rent is particularly notable:
"Rents for October 2025 were carried forward from April 2025, yielding unchanged index values for rent and owners’ equivalent rent for October."
#NumbersDay
BLS says it relied somewhat on "different cell" imputation in November than it did in September. And no use of "carry-forward." But it isn't providing detail on how it treated October, which is key to understanding these November figures.
December 18, 2025 at 4:22 PM
BLS says it relied somewhat on "different cell" imputation in November than it did in September. And no use of "carry-forward." But it isn't providing detail on how it treated October, which is key to understanding these November figures.
U.S. consumer prices were up 2.7 percent from a year earlier in November. "Core" prices, excluding volatile food and fuel, were up 2.6 percent.
Be very cautious with these numbers, though. Shutdown distortions may have biased them down.
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... #NumbersDay
Be very cautious with these numbers, though. Shutdown distortions may have biased them down.
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... #NumbersDay
Live Updates: Inflation Likely Remained Stuck Around 3%
www.nytimes.com
December 18, 2025 at 1:31 PM
U.S. consumer prices were up 2.7 percent from a year earlier in November. "Core" prices, excluding volatile food and fuel, were up 2.6 percent.
Be very cautious with these numbers, though. Shutdown distortions may have biased them down.
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... #NumbersDay
Be very cautious with these numbers, though. Shutdown distortions may have biased them down.
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... #NumbersDay
Charts! Starting with the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.6 percent, its highest level in more than four years.
December 16, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Charts! Starting with the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.6 percent, its highest level in more than four years.
December 16, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Charts! Starting with the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.6 percent, its highest level in more than four years.
U.S. employers added 64k jobs in November but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent.
Payroll employment fell by 105k in October, mostly as a result of the federal government's deferred-resignation program.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12...
Payroll employment fell by 105k in October, mostly as a result of the federal government's deferred-resignation program.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12...
Employment Situation Summary
- 2025 M11 Results
www.bls.gov
December 16, 2025 at 1:31 PM
U.S. employers added 64k jobs in November but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent.
Payroll employment fell by 105k in October, mostly as a result of the federal government's deferred-resignation program.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12...
Payroll employment fell by 105k in October, mostly as a result of the federal government's deferred-resignation program.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12...
Reposted by Ben Casselman
Ben raises a good point about the gap, how you treat the @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rule.
Here’s my shameless plug for the conclusion of my WP: the #SahmRule shouldn’t be understood as a singular heuristic, but rather a really flexible labor-oriented turning point framework.
Here’s my shameless plug for the conclusion of my WP: the #SahmRule shouldn’t be understood as a singular heuristic, but rather a really flexible labor-oriented turning point framework.
December 15, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Ben raises a good point about the gap, how you treat the @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rule.
Here’s my shameless plug for the conclusion of my WP: the #SahmRule shouldn’t be understood as a singular heuristic, but rather a really flexible labor-oriented turning point framework.
Here’s my shameless plug for the conclusion of my WP: the #SahmRule shouldn’t be understood as a singular heuristic, but rather a really flexible labor-oriented turning point framework.
Today in "adventures in false precision": If the unemployment rate comes in at 4.6% tomorrow, and does the same in December (not most people's base case, but hardly inconceivable), then the question of whether the Sahm Rule triggered will depend on how you handle October's missing number. #EconSky
December 15, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Today in "adventures in false precision": If the unemployment rate comes in at 4.6% tomorrow, and does the same in December (not most people's base case, but hardly inconceivable), then the question of whether the Sahm Rule triggered will depend on how you handle October's missing number. #EconSky
Reposted by Ben Casselman
Update on JOE postings -- things are worse: paulgp.com/2025/12/10/q...
Economics Job Market Update: December 2025 - Still Very Bad
paulgp.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Update on JOE postings -- things are worse: paulgp.com/2025/12/10/q...
A sharply divided Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point, as widely expected, but with three dissents in opposite directions.
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12...
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12...
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged
www.federalreserve.gov
December 10, 2025 at 7:01 PM
A sharply divided Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point, as widely expected, but with three dissents in opposite directions.
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12...
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12...
Reposted by Ben Casselman
A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
Same product. Same store. Same time. But on Instacart, different customers may see different prices.
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
Same Product, Same Store, but on Instacart, Prices Might Differ
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:01 PM
A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
Today's #JOLTS report gives our first official look at the labor market in October.
Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
- 2025 M10 Results
www.bls.gov
December 9, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Today's #JOLTS report gives our first official look at the labor market in October.
Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Same product. Same store. Same time. But on Instacart, different customers may see different prices.
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
Same Product, Same Store, but on Instacart, Prices Might Differ
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Same product. Same store. Same time. But on Instacart, different customers may see different prices.
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
You know what's not a great way to advertise trinkets commemorating my dead dad? A subject line advertising them as "A great gift for my dad."
December 5, 2025 at 3:45 PM
You know what's not a great way to advertise trinkets commemorating my dead dad? A subject line advertising them as "A great gift for my dad."
Reposted by Ben Casselman
The AEA has imposed a lifetime ban on Lawrence H. Summers’ membership and participation in AEA activities. See the full statement here. www.aeaweb.org/news/aea-sta...
Statement from the American Economic Association
www.aeaweb.org
December 2, 2025 at 4:01 PM
The AEA has imposed a lifetime ban on Lawrence H. Summers’ membership and participation in AEA activities. See the full statement here. www.aeaweb.org/news/aea-sta...
Excellent piece from the always-excellent @josephpolitano.bsky.social on why no one should be citing Current Population Data on immigration levels, and why it's a problem that we don't have better data on this crucial question. #EconSky
www.apricitas.io/p/america-is...
www.apricitas.io/p/america-is...
America is Flying Blind on Immigration
Nobody Knows How Many Immigrant Workers Have Left the US Amidst Trump's Mass Deportations. That's Incredibly Bad.
www.apricitas.io
December 2, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Excellent piece from the always-excellent @josephpolitano.bsky.social on why no one should be citing Current Population Data on immigration levels, and why it's a problem that we don't have better data on this crucial question. #EconSky
www.apricitas.io/p/america-is...
www.apricitas.io/p/america-is...
Reposted by Ben Casselman
For Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, monthly CPI values are used to interpolate daily index ratios that determine accrued interest
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Inflation Traders to Use Untested Fallbacks for Missing CPI
The $7 trillion market for securities linked to US inflation will employ fallback mechanisms for the first time after the longest government shutdown in history derailed economic data collection.
www.bloomberg.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:17 PM
For Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, monthly CPI values are used to interpolate daily index ratios that determine accrued interest
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Shoutout to everyone who's going to get to spend Thanksgiving fixing their code so it doesn't break when it hits an NA for October.
BREAKING: BLS says it will not publish an October CPI. November CPI will be delayed to Dec. 18, meaning too late for the FOMC meeting the previous week. #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
www.bls.gov
November 21, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Shoutout to everyone who's going to get to spend Thanksgiving fixing their code so it doesn't break when it hits an NA for October.