Wendy Edelberg
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social
Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Previously, director of The Hamilton Project at Brookings and before that chief economist of CBO.
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
Really enjoyed hearing Wendy Edelberg on Marketplace today talking about immigration and its effects on the labor market and economy of today. About time we talk about this more publicly.
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org
December 1, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Really enjoyed hearing Wendy Edelberg on Marketplace today talking about immigration and its effects on the labor market and economy of today. About time we talk about this more publicly.
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
Really enjoyed this conversation with @jc-econ.bsky.social and Seth Carpenter. Thanks to @wendyedelberg.bsky.social for expert moderation and @brookings.edu for hosting!
The event has passed, but you can still watch the video.
The event has passed, but you can still watch the video.
Today November 24, faculty member @cwolfram.bsky.social will join @brookings.edu for a timely conversation on the evolving supply-side forces shaping inflation. Click the link to register for this online event. buff.ly/zxvqIxd
November 25, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Really enjoyed this conversation with @jc-econ.bsky.social and Seth Carpenter. Thanks to @wendyedelberg.bsky.social for expert moderation and @brookings.edu for hosting!
The event has passed, but you can still watch the video.
The event has passed, but you can still watch the video.
Brookings had a super event on supply side factors & inflation. Great insights from @jc-econ.bsky.social, Seth Carpenter & Catherine Wolfram! www.brookings.edu/events/the-s...
Check out my paper: a taxonomy of related literature - how 88 papers describe supply shocks & their effects on inflation.
Check out my paper: a taxonomy of related literature - how 88 papers describe supply shocks & their effects on inflation.
The supply side of inflation: How shocks affect the outlook | Brookings
www.brookings.edu
November 24, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Brookings had a super event on supply side factors & inflation. Great insights from @jc-econ.bsky.social, Seth Carpenter & Catherine Wolfram! www.brookings.edu/events/the-s...
Check out my paper: a taxonomy of related literature - how 88 papers describe supply shocks & their effects on inflation.
Check out my paper: a taxonomy of related literature - how 88 papers describe supply shocks & their effects on inflation.
NYT op-ed from me: Low job gains & low unemployment are causing cognitive dissonance. The cause: immigration policy. If Trump stays the course, job gains may well go lower. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o... But, maybe he acts irresponsibly to get bigger numbers no matter the effect on inflation etc...
Opinion | We’re Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like
www.nytimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 10:16 PM
NYT op-ed from me: Low job gains & low unemployment are causing cognitive dissonance. The cause: immigration policy. If Trump stays the course, job gains may well go lower. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o... But, maybe he acts irresponsibly to get bigger numbers no matter the effect on inflation etc...
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
...as part of this event @wendyedelberg.bsky.social reviewed an extensive literature & created a practical & useful taxonomy for thinking about types of supply shock and transmission channels on inflation. Highly recommend!
www.brookings.edu/articles/a-t...
www.brookings.edu/articles/a-t...
A taxonomy of supply shocks and their effects on inflation | Brookings
www.brookings.edu
November 24, 2025 at 5:04 PM
...as part of this event @wendyedelberg.bsky.social reviewed an extensive literature & created a practical & useful taxonomy for thinking about types of supply shock and transmission channels on inflation. Highly recommend!
www.brookings.edu/articles/a-t...
www.brookings.edu/articles/a-t...
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
“We’re conditioned to think that job growth of 40,000 a month is a terrible omen for our economy,” Wendy Edelberg writes. “But if Mr. Trump’s restrictive immigration policies continue, it might simply be what the sustainable pace of new employment looks like.”
Opinion | We’re Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like
Making America less hospitable to newcomers will eventually make our country poorer.
nyti.ms
November 23, 2025 at 4:28 PM
“We’re conditioned to think that job growth of 40,000 a month is a terrible omen for our economy,” Wendy Edelberg writes. “But if Mr. Trump’s restrictive immigration policies continue, it might simply be what the sustainable pace of new employment looks like.”
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
‘Were Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like’
Bypass paywall 🔗
archive.md/2025.11.23-1...
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social
Bypass paywall 🔗
archive.md/2025.11.23-1...
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social
November 23, 2025 at 3:12 PM
‘Were Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like’
Bypass paywall 🔗
archive.md/2025.11.23-1...
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social
Bypass paywall 🔗
archive.md/2025.11.23-1...
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social
Trump won’t pay SNAP benefits because the US Treasury has to “remain liquid.”
What? What? What?
What? What? What?
November 8, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Trump won’t pay SNAP benefits because the US Treasury has to “remain liquid.”
What? What? What?
What? What? What?
Upcoming virtual event at Brookings on supply-side shocks and inflation:
www.brookings.edu/events/the-s...
Click the link to register. The conversation will be great, and you will leave with a broad understanding of how supply shocks matter for inflation. (Shocks are not all created equal!)
www.brookings.edu/events/the-s...
Click the link to register. The conversation will be great, and you will leave with a broad understanding of how supply shocks matter for inflation. (Shocks are not all created equal!)
The supply side of inflation: How shocks affect the outlook | Brookings
www.brookings.edu
November 6, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Upcoming virtual event at Brookings on supply-side shocks and inflation:
www.brookings.edu/events/the-s...
Click the link to register. The conversation will be great, and you will leave with a broad understanding of how supply shocks matter for inflation. (Shocks are not all created equal!)
www.brookings.edu/events/the-s...
Click the link to register. The conversation will be great, and you will leave with a broad understanding of how supply shocks matter for inflation. (Shocks are not all created equal!)
Does subdued complaining re shutdown mean fed gov't isn't valued? No: 75% of workforce is still providing fed services. Complaints will increase when military (like other fed workers) misses paychecks, SNAP benefits aren't paid & shutdown of FHA, SBA, IRS, etc services becomes a serious bottleneck.
October 31, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Does subdued complaining re shutdown mean fed gov't isn't valued? No: 75% of workforce is still providing fed services. Complaints will increase when military (like other fed workers) misses paychecks, SNAP benefits aren't paid & shutdown of FHA, SBA, IRS, etc services becomes a serious bottleneck.
There's a lot of uncertainty about whether the labor market is healthy. Everyone agrees the unemployment rate is low—that's good. But there's disagreement on what good employment growth looks like right now, stemming from wild swings in population due to immigration policy. 🧵of 5
October 30, 2025 at 2:05 PM
There's a lot of uncertainty about whether the labor market is healthy. Everyone agrees the unemployment rate is low—that's good. But there's disagreement on what good employment growth looks like right now, stemming from wild swings in population due to immigration policy. 🧵of 5
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
next year isn't going to be fun
Since immigration’s effect on job growth is in the news:
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
October 9, 2025 at 4:40 PM
next year isn't going to be fun
The decline in work permit applications among immigrants is stunning. @hamiltonproject.org is tracking this on the regular: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.
My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.
September 29, 2025 at 2:28 PM
The decline in work permit applications among immigrants is stunning. @hamiltonproject.org is tracking this on the regular: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.
My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??
September 20, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??
Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??
September 20, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??
In late 2024, many worried that Trump’s immigration policy would mean massive labor shortages & wage (& thus price) inflation. That would have meant output was above potential & the Fed would need restrictive policy. 1/4
September 19, 2025 at 1:22 PM
In late 2024, many worried that Trump’s immigration policy would mean massive labor shortages & wage (& thus price) inflation. That would have meant output was above potential & the Fed would need restrictive policy. 1/4
If Trump wins SCOTUS case, he could claim cause to fire a Fed gov & gov couldn't serve while courts decide if there's really cause. (Cook's suit on that still open.) Yes, big deal. But even if he loses this, new reality for Fed officials unchanged: Trump will come after them with everything he has.
September 18, 2025 at 4:44 PM
If Trump wins SCOTUS case, he could claim cause to fire a Fed gov & gov couldn't serve while courts decide if there's really cause. (Cook's suit on that still open.) Yes, big deal. But even if he loses this, new reality for Fed officials unchanged: Trump will come after them with everything he has.
Since immigration’s effect on job growth is in the news:
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
September 18, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Since immigration’s effect on job growth is in the news:
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
So, UI data will likely lead to downward revision of 0.9m to March 2025 employment level. In spirit of "maybe other data already reflected in policy pointed to a big revision": 3/25 emp (in CES) is running 1.6m higher than what household survey suggests. This revision would close much of that gap.
September 9, 2025 at 2:57 PM
So, UI data will likely lead to downward revision of 0.9m to March 2025 employment level. In spirit of "maybe other data already reflected in policy pointed to a big revision": 3/25 emp (in CES) is running 1.6m higher than what household survey suggests. This revision would close much of that gap.
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
Reupping this @bencasselman.bsky.social @colbylsmith.bsky.social @nytimes.com piece from July that lays much of this out.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...
September 5, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Reupping this @bencasselman.bsky.social @colbylsmith.bsky.social @nytimes.com piece from July that lays much of this out.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...
Reupping this @bencasselman.bsky.social @colbylsmith.bsky.social @nytimes.com piece from July that lays much of this out.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...
September 5, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Reupping this @bencasselman.bsky.social @colbylsmith.bsky.social @nytimes.com piece from July that lays much of this out.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...
Many worried Trump’s immigration policy meant labor shortages & wage inflation, w/ presumably much lower UR. Co-authors & I argued ⬇️ immigration also ⬇️ spending & labor demand. Add tariff policy effects ➡️ labor demand & supply are about in balance. This labor mkt likely can’t manage much more demand
September 5, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Many worried Trump’s immigration policy meant labor shortages & wage inflation, w/ presumably much lower UR. Co-authors & I argued ⬇️ immigration also ⬇️ spending & labor demand. Add tariff policy effects ➡️ labor demand & supply are about in balance. This labor mkt likely can’t manage much more demand
My posts have been too wonky so I‘ll say it plainly:
This jobs report is healthy. It doesn’t mean a “worrying slowdown” or a recession.
Despite the cognitive dissonance, a low UR/low job growth world will be our version of a healthy labor market for years to come under current immigration policy.
This jobs report is healthy. It doesn’t mean a “worrying slowdown” or a recession.
Despite the cognitive dissonance, a low UR/low job growth world will be our version of a healthy labor market for years to come under current immigration policy.
September 5, 2025 at 1:06 PM
My posts have been too wonky so I‘ll say it plainly:
This jobs report is healthy. It doesn’t mean a “worrying slowdown” or a recession.
Despite the cognitive dissonance, a low UR/low job growth world will be our version of a healthy labor market for years to come under current immigration policy.
This jobs report is healthy. It doesn’t mean a “worrying slowdown” or a recession.
Despite the cognitive dissonance, a low UR/low job growth world will be our version of a healthy labor market for years to come under current immigration policy.
With @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and @stanveuger.bsky.social we explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s a lot of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in the table here.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
September 5, 2025 at 12:48 PM
With @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and @stanveuger.bsky.social we explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s a lot of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in the table here.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...