I-Dog Capital
@idogcapital.bsky.social
Pioneer of the Crack Spread Options trading strategy.
America-pilled, Liberal, lover of freedom. Zionist. Stancilist. Writer at www.millennialeconomist.com
You are the result of four billion years of evolutionary success. Act like it.
America-pilled, Liberal, lover of freedom. Zionist. Stancilist. Writer at www.millennialeconomist.com
You are the result of four billion years of evolutionary success. Act like it.
Pinned
I-Dog Capital
@idogcapital.bsky.social
· Sep 16
Trump’s Economy Finally Takes Shape
Fed independence is now dead, and we are entering a new era of politicized economics. Let's analyze where the economy is, and think about where things might go from here.
millennialeconomist.com
New from me:
Fed independence is now dead, and we are entering a new era of politicized economics. Let's analyze where the economy is, and think about where things might go from here.
Fed independence is now dead, and we are entering a new era of politicized economics. Let's analyze where the economy is, and think about where things might go from here.
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
I’ve been reporting about the potential connection of tariffs to small biz job losses. Scott Lincicome of Cato offers this piece discussing not just the high level of the tariffs, but the “truly insane complexity” whose “overall economic cost is likely staggering. “
thedispatch.com/newsletter/c...
thedispatch.com/newsletter/c...
Welcome to Tariff Complexity Hell
Complexity is a tax, and today U.S. companies are paying through the nose.
thedispatch.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:04 AM
I’ve been reporting about the potential connection of tariffs to small biz job losses. Scott Lincicome of Cato offers this piece discussing not just the high level of the tariffs, but the “truly insane complexity” whose “overall economic cost is likely staggering. “
thedispatch.com/newsletter/c...
thedispatch.com/newsletter/c...
I’m hitting my usage limits much faster running Claude’s Opus 4.5 instead of Sonnet. Is this anyone else’s experience?
December 3, 2025 at 9:08 PM
I’m hitting my usage limits much faster running Claude’s Opus 4.5 instead of Sonnet. Is this anyone else’s experience?
Become a nuisance to your shitheel MAGA community nuts. They want to destroy you. That is what they voted for. If they claim to not know that, or not believe that, that is only a reflection of their own stupidity and inability to understand the world. You know better than them, so act like it.
“If you believe the MAGA postliberal project is real, then liberalism must understand MAGA is not a reaction to economic consequences or “elite failures,” but an affirmative preference for illiberalism.
Liberalism must stop apologizing. Stop excusing. And fight.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/maga-and-l...
Liberalism must stop apologizing. Stop excusing. And fight.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/maga-and-l...
Liberals: Stop the Masochism
Why liberalism romanticizes the Forgotten Man and is reluctant to take its own side in the fight against authoritarianism.
www.thebulwark.com
December 3, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Become a nuisance to your shitheel MAGA community nuts. They want to destroy you. That is what they voted for. If they claim to not know that, or not believe that, that is only a reflection of their own stupidity and inability to understand the world. You know better than them, so act like it.
Biggest defense export deal in Israeli history after these systems proved their capability during the Iran and other wars. Israel can clearly stand on its own and isn’t reliant on US support, but many of you aren’t ready to acknowledge that basic reality.
Germany receives first Arrow 3 air defense system from Israel
breakingdefense.com/2025/12/germ...
breakingdefense.com/2025/12/germ...
Germany receives first Arrow 3 air defense system from Israel - Breaking Defense
The $4 billion deal to deliver Arrow 3 to Germany was finalized in late 2023.
breakingdefense.com
December 3, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Biggest defense export deal in Israeli history after these systems proved their capability during the Iran and other wars. Israel can clearly stand on its own and isn’t reliant on US support, but many of you aren’t ready to acknowledge that basic reality.
Great article from @yarotrof.bsky.social as usual. China is getting everything they want, and the America-First presidency has become the China-and-ruzzia-First presidency. What a disgrace.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
A Newly Confident China Is Jockeying for More Global Clout as Trump Pulls Back
Feeling empowered after a clash over trade, Beijing is looking to exploit America’s inward turn.
www.wsj.com
December 3, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Great article from @yarotrof.bsky.social as usual. China is getting everything they want, and the America-First presidency has become the China-and-ruzzia-First presidency. What a disgrace.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
If nothing else, MAGAs are incredibly entertaining to argue with.
They are fundamentally incapable of acknowledging their own hate, and if you repeat their statements back to them, they will get upset at you because you sound hateful.
They are fundamentally incapable of acknowledging their own hate, and if you repeat their statements back to them, they will get upset at you because you sound hateful.
December 3, 2025 at 6:23 PM
If nothing else, MAGAs are incredibly entertaining to argue with.
They are fundamentally incapable of acknowledging their own hate, and if you repeat their statements back to them, they will get upset at you because you sound hateful.
They are fundamentally incapable of acknowledging their own hate, and if you repeat their statements back to them, they will get upset at you because you sound hateful.
EVERYTHING is political to these hacks
US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: THE HIGHEST INFLATION RATES ARE IN BLUE CITIES.
December 3, 2025 at 2:38 PM
EVERYTHING is political to these hacks
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
📊The K-shaped economy where small & medium-sized businesses are increasingly struggling.
⚖️More pressured by negative supply shocks (trade and immigration) than lifted by positive supply shocks (AI).
⚖️More pressured by negative supply shocks (trade and immigration) than lifted by positive supply shocks (AI).
December 3, 2025 at 1:44 PM
📊The K-shaped economy where small & medium-sized businesses are increasingly struggling.
⚖️More pressured by negative supply shocks (trade and immigration) than lifted by positive supply shocks (AI).
⚖️More pressured by negative supply shocks (trade and immigration) than lifted by positive supply shocks (AI).
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
ADP shows private hiring has essentially ground to a halt overall in recent months led by job losses among small firms
December 3, 2025 at 1:21 PM
ADP shows private hiring has essentially ground to a halt overall in recent months led by job losses among small firms
Real Gs move in silence like lasagna
December 3, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Real Gs move in silence like lasagna
Now iterating the December 2015 Fed Model. My goodness is this tedious.
Taking notes of all the adjustments needed and refining the iteration process to be more seamless next time.
Taking notes of all the adjustments needed and refining the iteration process to be more seamless next time.
December 3, 2025 at 4:18 AM
Now iterating the December 2015 Fed Model. My goodness is this tedious.
Taking notes of all the adjustments needed and refining the iteration process to be more seamless next time.
Taking notes of all the adjustments needed and refining the iteration process to be more seamless next time.
Texas Tech gets the #4 seed in the final CFP ranking! Now they just have to win one more game and they secure the first round bye.
December 3, 2025 at 1:46 AM
Texas Tech gets the #4 seed in the final CFP ranking! Now they just have to win one more game and they secure the first round bye.
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
Solar power made up 9.7% of US electricity this September, up from 7.6% last year
Over the last twelve months, solar has made up 8.3% of US electricity, a record high!
Over the last twelve months, solar has made up 8.3% of US electricity, a record high!
November 29, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Solar power made up 9.7% of US electricity this September, up from 7.6% last year
Over the last twelve months, solar has made up 8.3% of US electricity, a record high!
Over the last twelve months, solar has made up 8.3% of US electricity, a record high!
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
Official data is in this week, and US solar continues to grow rapidly, with generation up 30% compared to last year!
November 29, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Official data is in this week, and US solar continues to grow rapidly, with generation up 30% compared to last year!
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
More US government ownership of private business from the GOP anti-socialists: "US to Take $150 Million Stake in Chip Startup Led by Gelsinger" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com
December 2, 2025 at 12:41 PM
More US government ownership of private business from the GOP anti-socialists: "US to Take $150 Million Stake in Chip Startup Led by Gelsinger" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Really enjoyed hearing Wendy Edelberg on Marketplace today talking about immigration and its effects on the labor market and economy of today. About time we talk about this more publicly.
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org
December 1, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Really enjoyed hearing Wendy Edelberg on Marketplace today talking about immigration and its effects on the labor market and economy of today. About time we talk about this more publicly.
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org
I’m sick of seeing MSTR hate on here by people who don’t understand why the common shares are down so much. The story isn’t about the common.
December 1, 2025 at 10:15 PM
I’m sick of seeing MSTR hate on here by people who don’t understand why the common shares are down so much. The story isn’t about the common.
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
You should read about Saylor and Strategy’s accounting fraud if you’re unfamiliar:
thecaspiancey.medium.com/microstrateg...
thecaspiancey.medium.com/microstrateg...
MicroStrategy Before Bitcoin
It’s January 2000 and the internet bubble is beginning to enter full blown hysteria. So is MicroStrategy, which IPOed in 1998…
thecaspiancey.medium.com
December 1, 2025 at 7:13 PM
You should read about Saylor and Strategy’s accounting fraud if you’re unfamiliar:
thecaspiancey.medium.com/microstrateg...
thecaspiancey.medium.com/microstrateg...
I really do enjoy using Claude, but I don’t hook it up directly to my Google Drive (where I house my files). I download a copy of whatever file I need, upload it to Claude, then when it’s made changes, I re-upload to Drive.
Gemini cutting out the extra steps would make me switch to it.
Gemini cutting out the extra steps would make me switch to it.
Wait wait wait, I take that back. It does sync up to Google workspace!
December 1, 2025 at 6:44 PM
I really do enjoy using Claude, but I don’t hook it up directly to my Google Drive (where I house my files). I download a copy of whatever file I need, upload it to Claude, then when it’s made changes, I re-upload to Drive.
Gemini cutting out the extra steps would make me switch to it.
Gemini cutting out the extra steps would make me switch to it.
Apparently there is still appetite for Common share issuance. Preferred debt payments are secured for at least a year by diluting Common shares to raise capital.
Own the Preferred, short the Common. I do the former.
Own the Preferred, short the Common. I do the former.
Bitcoin champion Strategy launches ‘dollar reserve’ amid crypto sell-off on.ft.com/3Y16mm6
Bitcoin champion Strategy launches ‘dollar reserve’ amid crypto sell-off
Shares tumble as group warns of loss of up to $5.5bn if digital asset prices do not rebound
on.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Apparently there is still appetite for Common share issuance. Preferred debt payments are secured for at least a year by diluting Common shares to raise capital.
Own the Preferred, short the Common. I do the former.
Own the Preferred, short the Common. I do the former.
Huge news for Canadian manufacturing! And potentially another sizable step away from the F-35.
"Canada has reached a final agreement to join the EU’s €150 billion Security Action for Europe program, two EU diplomats told POLITICO, marking the first time a third country will formally participate in the bloc’s flagship joint procurement initiative." www.politico.eu/article/cana...
Canada clinches deal to join Europe’s €150B defense scheme
The deal concludes months of tough talks and will allow Ottawa to take part in procurements financed by the EU’s SAFE program.
www.politico.eu
December 1, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Huge news for Canadian manufacturing! And potentially another sizable step away from the F-35.
The kind of thing that makes me think a 4-print on the NowCast is wishful thinking.
ISM Prices Paid: 58.5, highest since September.
ISM New Orders: 47.4, lowest since July
ISM Employment: 44.0, lowest since August
ISM New Orders: 47.4, lowest since July
ISM Employment: 44.0, lowest since August
U.S. STOCKS EXTEND DECLINES SLIGHTLY AFTER NOV ISM PMI DATA
December 1, 2025 at 3:19 PM
The kind of thing that makes me think a 4-print on the NowCast is wishful thinking.
Reposted by I-Dog Capital
Our December Shadow Survey is in the field and we are interested in hearing your views on monetary policy, markets and the economy! We have shortened the survey & if you take time to answer we will give you a complete set of results on Friday. Link here:
survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...
survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...
December 1, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Our December Shadow Survey is in the field and we are interested in hearing your views on monetary policy, markets and the economy! We have shortened the survey & if you take time to answer we will give you a complete set of results on Friday. Link here:
survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...
survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...