Alexander Lanoszka
@lanoszka.bsky.social
Associate professor at the University of Waterloo (Canada); visiting professor at the College of Europe in Natolin (Poland); and author of Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century (Polity, 2022).
www.alexlanoszka.com
www.alexlanoszka.com
I am no dove or arms control enthusiast, but the answer I gave to the question asked in this news report is a simple no. globalnews.ca/news/1162522...
Canada has no nuclear weapons. After Trump’s Greenland threats, should it? - National | Globalnews.ca
Wayne Eyre, the former chief of the defence staff, recently said Canada shouldn't rule out acquiring nuclear weapons, but experts and the defence minister dismiss the idea.
globalnews.ca
February 5, 2026 at 1:38 AM
I am no dove or arms control enthusiast, but the answer I gave to the question asked in this news report is a simple no. globalnews.ca/news/1162522...
Subtitle: Additional benefits would include 20,000 jobs in the Maritimes.
Someone should write an op-ed titled 'Why Canada needs the Gripen to make its future nuclear deterrent against the United States credible'. It will get published somewhere.
February 4, 2026 at 3:33 AM
Subtitle: Additional benefits would include 20,000 jobs in the Maritimes.
Someone should write an op-ed titled 'Why Canada needs the Gripen to make its future nuclear deterrent against the United States credible'. It will get published somewhere.
February 3, 2026 at 10:02 PM
Someone should write an op-ed titled 'Why Canada needs the Gripen to make its future nuclear deterrent against the United States credible'. It will get published somewhere.
Former chief of the Defence Staff Wayne Eyre suggested that Canada should keep the nuclear weapons option open. Yet, despite everything happening with the US these days, we should expect little allied nuclear proliferation in the foreseeable future despite such talk. substack.com/home/post/p-...
Nuclear Proliferation in the Second Trump Era
Worries abound once more that U.S. treaty allies will now seek nuclear weapons--thankfully, it is not so simple.
substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Former chief of the Defence Staff Wayne Eyre suggested that Canada should keep the nuclear weapons option open. Yet, despite everything happening with the US these days, we should expect little allied nuclear proliferation in the foreseeable future despite such talk. substack.com/home/post/p-...
Last week, the Globe and Mail reported that parts of the Canadian Armed Forces have studied insurgency in the very unlikely event that a forcible seizure of Canada takes place. I tackle this issue in my latest Substack essay. alanoszka.substack.com/publish/post...
Canadian Insurgency as Speculative Fiction
Talk of guerrilla warfare understates how far-fetched and dangerous it is.
alanoszka.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 9:26 PM
Last week, the Globe and Mail reported that parts of the Canadian Armed Forces have studied insurgency in the very unlikely event that a forcible seizure of Canada takes place. I tackle this issue in my latest Substack essay. alanoszka.substack.com/publish/post...
These authors perform the impressive feat of writing about Greenland without even one mention of Denmark. How can prudence be so ignorant? www.cato.org/commentary/t...
Toward a More Prudent US Greenland Policy
The United States can better protect its interests in the Arctic through “dollar diplomacy” rather than “gunboat diplomacy.”
www.cato.org
January 25, 2026 at 2:35 PM
These authors perform the impressive feat of writing about Greenland without even one mention of Denmark. How can prudence be so ignorant? www.cato.org/commentary/t...
It's unclear at this point that the United States would be able to make its bases in Greenland 'sovereign', as what British bases in Cyprus are. I suspect that Copenhagen would have been more amenable had Trump pursued a more tactful approach. Bad diplomacy is costly.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/w...
After Trump’s Ultimatum, Greenland Talks Include Sovereign U.S. Bases, No Drilling for Russia
www.nytimes.com
January 22, 2026 at 8:22 PM
It's unclear at this point that the United States would be able to make its bases in Greenland 'sovereign', as what British bases in Cyprus are. I suspect that Copenhagen would have been more amenable had Trump pursued a more tactful approach. Bad diplomacy is costly.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/w...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/w...
"President Donald Trump ruled out military force to acquire Greenland in his remarks to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday."
I can't say that I'm surprised. The probabillity of military force was lower than what many pundits have assessed.
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
I can't say that I'm surprised. The probabillity of military force was lower than what many pundits have assessed.
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
Trump rules out using force to acquire Greenland
In Davos, the president urged negotiations for 'a piece of ice.'
www.politico.com
January 21, 2026 at 2:45 PM
"President Donald Trump ruled out military force to acquire Greenland in his remarks to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday."
I can't say that I'm surprised. The probabillity of military force was lower than what many pundits have assessed.
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
I can't say that I'm surprised. The probabillity of military force was lower than what many pundits have assessed.
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
Very cool database of all the tariffs that the Second Trump administration has implemented or threatened, with information on all the exemptions made and countermeasures taken. www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2026/01/18/t...
Trump 2.0 tariff tracker
According to President Trump, “Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump promised to use tariffs
www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com
January 19, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Very cool database of all the tariffs that the Second Trump administration has implemented or threatened, with information on all the exemptions made and countermeasures taken. www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2026/01/18/t...
Carney accepting in principle to the 'Board of Peace' is a major own goal, but it seems part of a broader pattern where his geopolitical sense is at best questionable. A 'wait-and-see' approach would have been better. There is very little upside to this association.
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
Canada's Carney outlines ‘precondition’ to joining Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’
The prime minister said the POTUS invite came "a few weeks ago."
www.politico.com
January 19, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Carney accepting in principle to the 'Board of Peace' is a major own goal, but it seems part of a broader pattern where his geopolitical sense is at best questionable. A 'wait-and-see' approach would have been better. There is very little upside to this association.
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
I suspect that the only reason Trump cares so much about the Nobel Peace Prize is because Obama got it (for no reason other getting elected). Regardless, this is just straight-up unhinged and embarrassing. He is not well.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Trump links Greenland dispute to not getting Nobel Peace Prize, in letter to Norway's PM
The US president says he no longer feels obliged to think only of peace, after not being awarded the annual prize.
www.bbc.com
January 19, 2026 at 2:11 PM
I suspect that the only reason Trump cares so much about the Nobel Peace Prize is because Obama got it (for no reason other getting elected). Regardless, this is just straight-up unhinged and embarrassing. He is not well.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
"A return to licensed production as opposed to participation in joint programs (like the JSF and beyond) would severely undermine Canada’s defence industrial strategy and our capacity to properly equip the RCAF in both the long- and short-term." macdonaldlaurier.ca/jets-jobs-an...
Jets, jobs, and national security – Tactical fighters and the history of Canadian defence industrial development: Richard Shimooka
Equipping the RCAF effectively requires a clear understanding of how Canada’s aerospace industry translates into military capability. Rather than repeat ineffective policies from the past – such as li...
macdonaldlaurier.ca
January 16, 2026 at 8:46 PM
"A return to licensed production as opposed to participation in joint programs (like the JSF and beyond) would severely undermine Canada’s defence industrial strategy and our capacity to properly equip the RCAF in both the long- and short-term." macdonaldlaurier.ca/jets-jobs-an...
Trump threatening tariffs on countries that disagree with him over Greenland is the easiest bluff to call. He is watering down his own favourite foreign policy by invoking it as often as he does.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
Trump threatens tariffs over Greenland, calls it vital for security
US delegation seeks to lower US-Denmark-Greenland tensions amid Trump’s threats of tariffs and control claims.
www.aljazeera.com
January 16, 2026 at 6:31 PM
Trump threatening tariffs on countries that disagree with him over Greenland is the easiest bluff to call. He is watering down his own favourite foreign policy by invoking it as often as he does.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
Electoral ridings most exposed to trade with the United States voted against Carney in the last election, and I suspect that they are going to vote against Carney at least one more time in the next election.
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Canada and China reach 'landmark' tariff-quota deal | CBC
www.cbc.ca
January 16, 2026 at 2:20 PM
Electoral ridings most exposed to trade with the United States voted against Carney in the last election, and I suspect that they are going to vote against Carney at least one more time in the next election.
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
The Trump administration: as we say in the NSS, we need to reassert our power and influence in the western hemisphere.
Also the Trump administration: we don't need Canada and CUSMA is irrelevant.
www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/art...
Also the Trump administration: we don't need Canada and CUSMA is irrelevant.
www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/art...
‘We do not need Canada,’ says U.S. Ambassador during Montreal visit
The U.S. ambassador to Canada, Peter Hoekstra, repeated during his stop in Montreal on Wednesday, President Donald Trump's claim that the United States doesn't need Canada.
www.ctvnews.ca
January 15, 2026 at 4:00 PM
The Trump administration: as we say in the NSS, we need to reassert our power and influence in the western hemisphere.
Also the Trump administration: we don't need Canada and CUSMA is irrelevant.
www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/art...
Also the Trump administration: we don't need Canada and CUSMA is irrelevant.
www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/art...
There is a small chance that a hostile U.S. take-over of Greenland can happen. However, there is a much bigger chance that it would not happen for reasons that get insufficient attention in much of the public discourse. I explain in my latest Substack essay. alanoszka.substack.com/p/the-noise-...
The Noise about Greenland
The annexationist presidential discourse is corrosive, but it will likely remain just that.
alanoszka.substack.com
January 11, 2026 at 3:01 PM
There is a small chance that a hostile U.S. take-over of Greenland can happen. However, there is a much bigger chance that it would not happen for reasons that get insufficient attention in much of the public discourse. I explain in my latest Substack essay. alanoszka.substack.com/p/the-noise-...
Canada needs to give some more consideration to the basic idea that military procurement should focus primarily on military needs.
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
Canada asks South Koreans, Germans for auto sector production pledges as part of submarine bid: source
Ottawa narrowed its search to two conglomerates last year, and is now requesting commitments from Hyundai and Volkswagen
www.theglobeandmail.com
January 9, 2026 at 3:56 AM
Canada needs to give some more consideration to the basic idea that military procurement should focus primarily on military needs.
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
"LaMalfa’s death tightens the razor-thin House majority and could imperil Speaker Mike Johnson’s grip on the chamber. The House stood at 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats ... LaMalfa’s death brings the House to 218 Republicans." www.cnbc.com/2026/01/06/d...
Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa dies at 65
LaMalfa's death is a critical shift in the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives, tightening Republicans' razor-thin majority.
www.cnbc.com
January 6, 2026 at 8:22 PM
"LaMalfa’s death tightens the razor-thin House majority and could imperil Speaker Mike Johnson’s grip on the chamber. The House stood at 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats ... LaMalfa’s death brings the House to 218 Republicans." www.cnbc.com/2026/01/06/d...
Finally, some welcome news:
"President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Jan. 6 signed a declaration of intent for a post-war deployment of a multinational force in Ukraine."
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-uk-...
"President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Jan. 6 signed a declaration of intent for a post-war deployment of a multinational force in Ukraine."
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-uk-...
Zelensky, UK, France sign declaration on multinational force in Ukraine post-war
The Paris summit saw the partners agree on "robust" and "legally binding guarantees" to ensure Ukraine's post-war security.
kyivindependent.com
January 6, 2026 at 7:55 PM
Finally, some welcome news:
"President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Jan. 6 signed a declaration of intent for a post-war deployment of a multinational force in Ukraine."
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-uk-...
"President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Jan. 6 signed a declaration of intent for a post-war deployment of a multinational force in Ukraine."
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-uk-...
The new semester is upon us, and so it is as good a time as any to weigh in on Impact+, the Canadian federal government's latest recruitment program for attracting leading academics from abroad.
alanoszka.substack.com/p/against-im...
alanoszka.substack.com/p/against-im...
Against Impact+
I am not a fan of the federal government's initiative to recruit international researchers.
alanoszka.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 3:28 PM
The new semester is upon us, and so it is as good a time as any to weigh in on Impact+, the Canadian federal government's latest recruitment program for attracting leading academics from abroad.
alanoszka.substack.com/p/against-im...
alanoszka.substack.com/p/against-im...
One of the foreign policy arguments in favour of Trump was that, despite everything, he never did something as bad as to take over a country without thinking through the consequenecs, as what Bush had done with Iraq in 2003.
That argument was valid until today. Things will get messy there.
That argument was valid until today. Things will get messy there.
January 3, 2026 at 4:56 PM
One of the foreign policy arguments in favour of Trump was that, despite everything, he never did something as bad as to take over a country without thinking through the consequenecs, as what Bush had done with Iraq in 2003.
That argument was valid until today. Things will get messy there.
That argument was valid until today. Things will get messy there.
From 17 November 2025:
"Toppling Maduro is the easy part. What follows is the hard strategic slog of policing a sprawling, heavily armed society where state services have collapsed and regime loyalists, criminal syndicates, and colectivos all compete for turf." warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...
"Toppling Maduro is the easy part. What follows is the hard strategic slog of policing a sprawling, heavily armed society where state services have collapsed and regime loyalists, criminal syndicates, and colectivos all compete for turf." warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...
The Day After: What Successful Regime Change in Venezuela Would Really Take
What if the “counternarcotics” strikes against boats suspected of moving drugs aren’t really about cocaine at all, but about toppling Venezuelan President
warontherocks.com
January 3, 2026 at 4:17 PM
From 17 November 2025:
"Toppling Maduro is the easy part. What follows is the hard strategic slog of policing a sprawling, heavily armed society where state services have collapsed and regime loyalists, criminal syndicates, and colectivos all compete for turf." warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...
"Toppling Maduro is the easy part. What follows is the hard strategic slog of policing a sprawling, heavily armed society where state services have collapsed and regime loyalists, criminal syndicates, and colectivos all compete for turf." warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...
"The broader question facing Canadian institutions as the DIA sets to work is whether Canada’s procurement woes are merely procedural, or whether the way the government has done business in this area for a generation has been due to cultural and structural factors that will prove slow to unwind."
December 30, 2025 at 6:01 PM
"The broader question facing Canadian institutions as the DIA sets to work is whether Canada’s procurement woes are merely procedural, or whether the way the government has done business in this area for a generation has been due to cultural and structural factors that will prove slow to unwind."
On my Substack, I wrote up a summary of the last year, whereby I assess the proverbial international climate, look back on various accomplishments, and reflect on the predictions I had made for 2025. open.substack.com/pub/alanoszk...
Reviewing 2025, Anticipating 2026
A look back on a year that made everyone uneasy.
open.substack.com
December 27, 2025 at 2:07 PM
On my Substack, I wrote up a summary of the last year, whereby I assess the proverbial international climate, look back on various accomplishments, and reflect on the predictions I had made for 2025. open.substack.com/pub/alanoszk...
"Canada’s military operations command has embarked on a study about how the country’s NATO deployment in Latvia can be realistically sustained into the future, and one of options could involve more permanent basing, says a senior commander." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Military considers permanent bases in Latvia as part of Canada's NATO commitment | CBC News
Canada’s operational command is looking at the possibility of permanent bases in Latvia as one potential solution to sustaining the country’s NATO deployment over the long haul.
www.cbc.ca
December 23, 2025 at 6:36 PM
"Canada’s military operations command has embarked on a study about how the country’s NATO deployment in Latvia can be realistically sustained into the future, and one of options could involve more permanent basing, says a senior commander." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...