Alexander Lanoszka
@lanoszka.bsky.social
Associate professor at the University of Waterloo (Canada); visiting professor at the College of Europe in Natolin (Poland); and author of Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century (Polity, 2022).
www.alexlanoszka.com
www.alexlanoszka.com
This rollback on food tariffs is probably the closest we will ever get to the Trump administration conceding a policy failure. www.bbc.com/news/article...
Trump rolls back tariffs on dozens of food products
The executive order allowing products like coffee and bananas to escape tariffs comes as the Trump administration faces mounting pressure over rising prices.
www.bbc.com
November 15, 2025 at 2:34 PM
This rollback on food tariffs is probably the closest we will ever get to the Trump administration conceding a policy failure. www.bbc.com/news/article...
"Saudi Arabia has long desired to match the military and nuclear capabilities of its regional rivals — Iran and Israel. In the aftermath of the 12-Day War it now seems to be doubling down on a policy of nuclear ambiguity." warontherocks.com/2025/11/saud...
Saudi Nuclear Posture After the 12-Day War
Israel’s short but destructive summer war against Iran and its brazen military strikes on Doha in September have reignited a debate across the Middle East
warontherocks.com
November 14, 2025 at 5:08 PM
"Saudi Arabia has long desired to match the military and nuclear capabilities of its regional rivals — Iran and Israel. In the aftermath of the 12-Day War it now seems to be doubling down on a policy of nuclear ambiguity." warontherocks.com/2025/11/saud...
Worth reading:
"Growing evidence reveals that Putin has instead built a global trafficking pipeline that externalises casualties to the Global South ... luring desperate men with false promises of construction work, warehouse jobs, or any legitimate opportunity." engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...
"Growing evidence reveals that Putin has instead built a global trafficking pipeline that externalises casualties to the Global South ... luring desperate men with false promises of construction work, warehouse jobs, or any legitimate opportunity." engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...
The trafficking networks sustaining Russia’s war of attrition
As Putin seeks to avoid another politically damaging mobilisation, the temptation to draw on Moscow's extensive global trafficking networks will only grow.
engelsbergideas.com
November 14, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Worth reading:
"Growing evidence reveals that Putin has instead built a global trafficking pipeline that externalises casualties to the Global South ... luring desperate men with false promises of construction work, warehouse jobs, or any legitimate opportunity." engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...
"Growing evidence reveals that Putin has instead built a global trafficking pipeline that externalises casualties to the Global South ... luring desperate men with false promises of construction work, warehouse jobs, or any legitimate opportunity." engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...
I'm delighted to be alongside an impressive group of experts, brought together by @congeostrategy.bsky.social, weighing on this question. I write that the term 'cold war' suggests that we are taking Russia and China seriously enough when arguably we are not. www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...
Are we in a new cold war?
The Big Ask | No. 46.2025
www.britainsworld.org.uk
November 14, 2025 at 2:28 PM
I'm delighted to be alongside an impressive group of experts, brought together by @congeostrategy.bsky.social, weighing on this question. I write that the term 'cold war' suggests that we are taking Russia and China seriously enough when arguably we are not. www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...
Saab's courtship of Canada is becoming absurd. 10,000 jobs in Canada? That's more than how many work on the Gripen in Sweden. The Government of Canada should also ask why no other Nordic country has the Gripen in its arsenal. What was Finland's reasoning for the F-35?
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
10,000 new jobs could soon come to Canada, Swedish manufacturer says
The Swedish manufacturer of the Gripen fighter jet, SAAB, says ten thousand manufacturing and research jobs could land in Canada if Ottawa adds the aircraft to its military fleet.
www.ctvnews.ca
November 14, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Saab's courtship of Canada is becoming absurd. 10,000 jobs in Canada? That's more than how many work on the Gripen in Sweden. The Government of Canada should also ask why no other Nordic country has the Gripen in its arsenal. What was Finland's reasoning for the F-35?
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...
"Sources said the fact that Michael Sabia, the clerk of the Privy Council, made room in his tight agenda on Oct. 31 to meet with Micael Johansson highlights Canada's interest in acquiring European military equipment, as well as beefing up its domestic production capacity." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Swedish king’s visit highlights growing Canadian interest in Saab military aircraft | CBC News
A few days before the federal budget was tabled, the CEO of Swedish industrial giant Saab flew to Ottawa to meet with the country's top bureaucrat, fuelling the sense a deal is brewing between the Can...
www.cbc.ca
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 PM
"Sources said the fact that Michael Sabia, the clerk of the Privy Council, made room in his tight agenda on Oct. 31 to meet with Micael Johansson highlights Canada's interest in acquiring European military equipment, as well as beefing up its domestic production capacity." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Congratulations to @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social. @herzogsm.bsky.social, and @mvranka.bsky.social on their new article! They address address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use?
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Congratulations to @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social. @herzogsm.bsky.social, and @mvranka.bsky.social on their new article! They address address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use?
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
"Although partisan polarization continues to complicate consensus on China policy, Warsaw’s overall trajectory now reflects a deliberate and measured shift toward balancing and de-risking vis-à-vis Beijing." www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
Poland’s policy on China: From partnership to skepticism
Unmet economic promises and Beijing’s alignment with Moscow have shifted Warsaw’s view of China from economic partner to systemic challenger.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
November 11, 2025 at 6:42 PM
"Although partisan polarization continues to complicate consensus on China policy, Warsaw’s overall trajectory now reflects a deliberate and measured shift toward balancing and de-risking vis-à-vis Beijing." www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
"NATO’s new Alliance Maritime Strategy ... re-centers maritime hard power within collective defense, integrates digital transformation and industrial strength, and reframes the oceans as the decisive arena of strategic competition." www.fpri.org/article/2025...
Collective Seapower: NATO’s New Maritime Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute
NATO has finally unveiled its new Alliance Maritime Strategy, refreshing a document that had not been publicly updated since 2011. While high-level strategy
www.fpri.org
November 10, 2025 at 9:15 PM
"NATO’s new Alliance Maritime Strategy ... re-centers maritime hard power within collective defense, integrates digital transformation and industrial strength, and reframes the oceans as the decisive arena of strategic competition." www.fpri.org/article/2025...
"UK academics whose research is critical of China say they have been targeted and their universities subjected to “extremely heavy” pressure from Beijing, prompting calls for a fresh look at the sector’s dependence on tuition fee income from Chinese students." www.theguardian.com/education/20...
China-critical UK academics describe ‘extremely heavy’ pressure from Beijing
Reliance on overseas students’ tuition fees under scrutiny as scholars describe chilling effect of being targeted
www.theguardian.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:34 PM
"UK academics whose research is critical of China say they have been targeted and their universities subjected to “extremely heavy” pressure from Beijing, prompting calls for a fresh look at the sector’s dependence on tuition fee income from Chinese students." www.theguardian.com/education/20...
"Bulgaria is preparing legislative amendments that would allow authorities to seize the Lukoil-owned oil refinery in Burgas and sell it to a new owner" so as to "protect Bulgaria's only refinery from the impact of U.S. sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil." kyivindependent.com/bulgaria-mov...
Bulgaria moves to seize, sell Russian energy giant's refinery amid sanctions pressure
The move aims to protect Bulgaria's only refinery — and a major supplier — from the impact of U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.
kyivindependent.com
November 6, 2025 at 6:44 PM
"Bulgaria is preparing legislative amendments that would allow authorities to seize the Lukoil-owned oil refinery in Burgas and sell it to a new owner" so as to "protect Bulgaria's only refinery from the impact of U.S. sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil." kyivindependent.com/bulgaria-mov...
Though I really like the platform, but teaching, service commitments, research and writing, and family have kept me away from Substack. Thankfully, I found a little bit of time to jot some thoughts on the defence portion of the Carney government's new budget. alanoszka.substack.com/p/quick-thou...
Quick Thoughts on Budget 2025 and Canadian Defence
So much money and yet so little detail.
alanoszka.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Though I really like the platform, but teaching, service commitments, research and writing, and family have kept me away from Substack. Thankfully, I found a little bit of time to jot some thoughts on the defence portion of the Carney government's new budget. alanoszka.substack.com/p/quick-thou...
"Saab is considering Canada as a place to assemble Gripen fighter jets as it moves to quickly ramp up production to meet demand from Ukraine" as "Kyiv's interest in purchasing more than 100 Gripen fighter jets would double the defence company's production requirements." www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Sweden's Saab considering Canada for its Gripen jet assembly | CBC News
The Swedish defence firm Saab is considering Canada as a place to assemble Gripen fighter jets as it moves to quickly ramp up production to meet demand from Ukraine.
www.cbc.ca
November 4, 2025 at 3:44 PM
"Saab is considering Canada as a place to assemble Gripen fighter jets as it moves to quickly ramp up production to meet demand from Ukraine" as "Kyiv's interest in purchasing more than 100 Gripen fighter jets would double the defence company's production requirements." www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
"Tuesday’s federal budget is expected to flip a long-established script for the Canadian military and the Department of National Defence" since "they are likely going to be in the uncomfortable position of having so much cash it will be hard to keep up." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Federal budget expected to chart a course to meet NATO's 5% spending target | CBC News
What will rearming the Canadian military look like? We could get a clearer in Tuesday's federal budget. At least one defence expert says the Liberal government has made a lot of vague promises and the...
www.cbc.ca
November 4, 2025 at 2:23 PM
"Tuesday’s federal budget is expected to flip a long-established script for the Canadian military and the Department of National Defence" since "they are likely going to be in the uncomfortable position of having so much cash it will be hard to keep up." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Interesting piece on the attack helicopter and its place on the modern battlefield:
"In future wars, helicopters must be able to conduct their own suppression of enemy air defenses, or they will be unable to conduct their primary mission sets." warontherocks.com/2025/11/atta...
"In future wars, helicopters must be able to conduct their own suppression of enemy air defenses, or they will be unable to conduct their primary mission sets." warontherocks.com/2025/11/atta...
Attack Helicopters Must Hunt the Hunters
“Bingo” means the point of no return: the call that fuel is running dry and the mission is over. The same call now threatens the attack helicopter itself.
warontherocks.com
November 3, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Interesting piece on the attack helicopter and its place on the modern battlefield:
"In future wars, helicopters must be able to conduct their own suppression of enemy air defenses, or they will be unable to conduct their primary mission sets." warontherocks.com/2025/11/atta...
"In future wars, helicopters must be able to conduct their own suppression of enemy air defenses, or they will be unable to conduct their primary mission sets." warontherocks.com/2025/11/atta...
If there is one thing you should read this month about Canada's defence industry and how the federal government is now addressing defence procurement, then it should be this new essay by @richardshimooka.bsky.social.
thehub.ca/2025/11/01/c...
thehub.ca/2025/11/01/c...
Can the new Defence Investment Agency fix Canada’s procurement problems—or will politics slow that down too?
thehub.ca
November 1, 2025 at 2:07 PM
If there is one thing you should read this month about Canada's defence industry and how the federal government is now addressing defence procurement, then it should be this new essay by @richardshimooka.bsky.social.
thehub.ca/2025/11/01/c...
thehub.ca/2025/11/01/c...
"The Bulgarian site, expected to become operational in 2027, will focus on manufacturing gunpowder and 155-mm NATO-standard artillery shells. The project is valued at 511.3 million euros, with Rheinmetall holding 51 per cent of the shares in the joint venture." balkaninsight.com/2025/10/28/r...
Rheinmetall Deal Gives Major Boost to Bulgarian Defence Industry
Bulgarian leaders and German company hail deal to build plant manufacturing gunpowder and artillery shells for NATO and EU countries.
balkaninsight.com
October 28, 2025 at 4:45 PM
"The Bulgarian site, expected to become operational in 2027, will focus on manufacturing gunpowder and 155-mm NATO-standard artillery shells. The project is valued at 511.3 million euros, with Rheinmetall holding 51 per cent of the shares in the joint venture." balkaninsight.com/2025/10/28/r...
Michael Hunzeker and I reflected on our 2018 WOTR article that made the case on a permanent U.S. military presence in Poland.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/does...
warontherocks.com/2025/10/does...
Does Russian Deterrence Begin in Poland?
In 2018, Alexander Lanoszka and Michael Hunzeker wrote “The Case for a Permanent U.S. Military Presence in Poland,” where they argued that a permanent
warontherocks.com
October 21, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Michael Hunzeker and I reflected on our 2018 WOTR article that made the case on a permanent U.S. military presence in Poland.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/does...
warontherocks.com/2025/10/does...
Very pleased to have published a short piece with Lauren and Stephen in Foreign Policy that describes our latest research.
1/5
In @foreignpolicy.com, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, and I provide analysis on how publics around the world viewed the Biden administration's extensive but restricted military aid to Ukraine in 2022-2023.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/u...
In @foreignpolicy.com, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, and I provide analysis on how publics around the world viewed the Biden administration's extensive but restricted military aid to Ukraine in 2022-2023.
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/u...
Reliable Not Reckless
Why Washington’s measured support for Ukraine reassured the world.
foreignpolicy.com
October 21, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Very pleased to have published a short piece with Lauren and Stephen in Foreign Policy that describes our latest research.
"... from China’s perspective, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization serves two distinct strategic goals: Russia management and the presentation of an alternative international security order." warontherocks.com/2025/10/is-t...
Is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Just a Talking Shop?
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization convened for its 25th summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, the largest gathering of leaders in the organization’s history.
warontherocks.com
October 8, 2025 at 1:19 PM
"... from China’s perspective, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization serves two distinct strategic goals: Russia management and the presentation of an alternative international security order." warontherocks.com/2025/10/is-t...
"Trade executed outside regulatory, taxation, and enforcement frameworks prolongs wars, defangs sanctions, frays alliances, and helps rogue governments and groups survive and thrive."
www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/1...
'Shadow economies' are growing. Military planners and operators must take them into account
Black markets prolong wars, defang sanctions, fray alliances, and help rogue governments and groups survive and thrive.
www.defenseone.com
October 6, 2025 at 4:47 PM
"Trade executed outside regulatory, taxation, and enforcement frameworks prolongs wars, defangs sanctions, frays alliances, and helps rogue governments and groups survive and thrive."
www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/1...
Reposted by Alexander Lanoszka
MORE: The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear.🧵 (1/7)
isw.pub/UkrWar100525
isw.pub/UkrWar100525
October 6, 2025 at 1:41 PM
MORE: The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear.🧵 (1/7)
isw.pub/UkrWar100525
isw.pub/UkrWar100525
Stoltenberg on Trump: "I think he realised he was banging his head against a wall with his demands of immediate budget increases [at the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels], but at the same time, he departed Brussels convinced he would have more money by the new year." www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...
‘I’m leaving,’ Trump said. ‘There’s no reason to be here any more’: inside the meeting that brought Nato to the brink
Former secretary general Jens Stoltenberg recalls the rollercoaster ride of dealing with Donald Trump – and how close the US president brought the alliance to the point of collapse
www.theguardian.com
October 6, 2025 at 1:38 AM
Stoltenberg on Trump: "I think he realised he was banging his head against a wall with his demands of immediate budget increases [at the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels], but at the same time, he departed Brussels convinced he would have more money by the new year." www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...
"Babis has already vowed to scrap the successful Czech ammunition initiative ... He wants it moved under the umbrella of NATO instead, and again on Saturday accused Czech arms dealers of making enormous profits from the scheme." www.bbc.com/news/article...
Czech Republic: Billionaire populist Andrej Babis' party wins parliamentary election
However, his ANO party falls short of an overall majority in preliminary results.
www.bbc.com
October 5, 2025 at 1:48 PM
"Babis has already vowed to scrap the successful Czech ammunition initiative ... He wants it moved under the umbrella of NATO instead, and again on Saturday accused Czech arms dealers of making enormous profits from the scheme." www.bbc.com/news/article...
Should the UK and Japan have a new formal defence alliance?
On this question, I agree with @wdjames.bsky.social that "rather than engaging in lengthy treaty negotiations, Britain and Japan should focus on tangible outcomes, such as delivering GCAP on time." www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...
On this question, I agree with @wdjames.bsky.social that "rather than engaging in lengthy treaty negotiations, Britain and Japan should focus on tangible outcomes, such as delivering GCAP on time." www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...
Should Britain and Japan move towards a formal defence alliance?
The Big Ask | No. 40.2025
www.britainsworld.org.uk
October 3, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Should the UK and Japan have a new formal defence alliance?
On this question, I agree with @wdjames.bsky.social that "rather than engaging in lengthy treaty negotiations, Britain and Japan should focus on tangible outcomes, such as delivering GCAP on time." www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...
On this question, I agree with @wdjames.bsky.social that "rather than engaging in lengthy treaty negotiations, Britain and Japan should focus on tangible outcomes, such as delivering GCAP on time." www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...