Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @EY @EY-Parthenon
President @National Association for Business Economics
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt
Football player & @ManCity fan
Once-a-year triathlete
Belgian heart. American mind.
Father of 3. Husband of one
President @National Association for Business Economics
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt
Football player & @ManCity fan
Once-a-year triathlete
Belgian heart. American mind.
Father of 3. Husband of one
Reposted by Gregory Daco
Underemployment has drifted higher & all measures of nominal wage growth are decelerating despite sticky inflation--the labor market is still looser despite the massive step down in labor supply supporting econ research conclusion--immigrants are complements to, not substitutes for domestic workers
February 11, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Underemployment has drifted higher & all measures of nominal wage growth are decelerating despite sticky inflation--the labor market is still looser despite the massive step down in labor supply supporting econ research conclusion--immigrants are complements to, not substitutes for domestic workers
Jan '26 US #Jobsreport: Solid but still concerning joblessness
✅Payrolls +130k
✅Private +172k
✅Gds +36k
✅Services +136k
🔻Gov -42k
🔻Revisions Nov/Dec: -17k
🚨Benchmark: -898k
⚠️2025: only +181k
🔽 #Unemployment 4.3% (-0.1pt)
✅ Part rate 62.5% (-0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.4% m/m
✅3.7% y/y
✅Payrolls +130k
✅Private +172k
✅Gds +36k
✅Services +136k
🔻Gov -42k
🔻Revisions Nov/Dec: -17k
🚨Benchmark: -898k
⚠️2025: only +181k
🔽 #Unemployment 4.3% (-0.1pt)
✅ Part rate 62.5% (-0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.4% m/m
✅3.7% y/y
February 11, 2026 at 1:40 PM
Jan '26 US #Jobsreport: Solid but still concerning joblessness
✅Payrolls +130k
✅Private +172k
✅Gds +36k
✅Services +136k
🔻Gov -42k
🔻Revisions Nov/Dec: -17k
🚨Benchmark: -898k
⚠️2025: only +181k
🔽 #Unemployment 4.3% (-0.1pt)
✅ Part rate 62.5% (-0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.4% m/m
✅3.7% y/y
✅Payrolls +130k
✅Private +172k
✅Gds +36k
✅Services +136k
🔻Gov -42k
🔻Revisions Nov/Dec: -17k
🚨Benchmark: -898k
⚠️2025: only +181k
🔽 #Unemployment 4.3% (-0.1pt)
✅ Part rate 62.5% (-0.1pt)
📉Wages
✅+0.4% m/m
✅3.7% y/y
« President Donald Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, people familiar with the matter said, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegotiations involving the US, Canada and Mexico. »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Privately Weighs Quitting USMCA Trade Pact He Negotiated
President Donald Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, people familiar with the matter said, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegot...
www.bloomberg.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:52 PM
« President Donald Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, people familiar with the matter said, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegotiations involving the US, Canada and Mexico. »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
« House lawmakers rejected an attempt by Speaker Johnson to block votes on resolutions disapproving of Trump’s #tariffs—a stinging blow to his leadership that paves the way for lawmakers to potentially rebuke Trump’s signature economic policy »
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
House Rejects Speaker Johnson’s Effort to Block Tariff Votes
The vote is a stinging rebuke of GOP leadership that paves the way for challenges to Trump’s signature economic policy.
www.wsj.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:22 PM
« House lawmakers rejected an attempt by Speaker Johnson to block votes on resolutions disapproving of Trump’s #tariffs—a stinging blow to his leadership that paves the way for lawmakers to potentially rebuke Trump’s signature economic policy »
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
📉The US labor market is increasingly **disinflationary**
Directly through moderating wage growth & indirectly via slower real disposable-income growth and softer consumer spending, particularly among upper-median, median, and lower-income households.
Directly through moderating wage growth & indirectly via slower real disposable-income growth and softer consumer spending, particularly among upper-median, median, and lower-income households.
February 11, 2026 at 12:14 AM
📉The US labor market is increasingly **disinflationary**
Directly through moderating wage growth & indirectly via slower real disposable-income growth and softer consumer spending, particularly among upper-median, median, and lower-income households.
Directly through moderating wage growth & indirectly via slower real disposable-income growth and softer consumer spending, particularly among upper-median, median, and lower-income households.
Reposted by Gregory Daco
The Employment Cost Index shows continued deceleration in compensation growth in Q4. All metrics of wage growth are slowing even as inflation has gotten stuck confirming that labor demand < greatly reduced labor supply
February 10, 2026 at 1:58 PM
The Employment Cost Index shows continued deceleration in compensation growth in Q4. All metrics of wage growth are slowing even as inflation has gotten stuck confirming that labor demand < greatly reduced labor supply
Reposted by Gregory Daco
Revised data on retial sales now show a sustained deceleration in nominal spending growth in Q4
February 10, 2026 at 1:49 PM
Revised data on retial sales now show a sustained deceleration in nominal spending growth in Q4
Benefits of growth not equally hitting all income levels or businesses: EY Parthenon's Gregory Daco cnb.cx/3O7YTjK
Benefits of growth not equally hitting all income levels or businesses: EY Parthenon's Greg Daco
Greg Daco, EY Parthenon chief economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the Federal Reserve's upcoming moves, the latest retail sales data and much more.
cnb.cx
February 10, 2026 at 7:36 PM
Benefits of growth not equally hitting all income levels or businesses: EY Parthenon's Gregory Daco cnb.cx/3O7YTjK
« Alphabet Inc. is selling at least $9.4 billion in sterling and Swiss franc-denominated bonds, including an ultra-rare issue of a 100-year note, following a bumper deal in the US. »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Alphabet Begins Selling Multi Tranche Debut Swiss Franc Bond
Alphabet Inc. is selling at least $9.4 billion in sterling and Swiss franc-denominated bonds, including an ultra-rare issue of a 100-year note, following a bumper deal in the US.
www.bloomberg.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:46 PM
« Alphabet Inc. is selling at least $9.4 billion in sterling and Swiss franc-denominated bonds, including an ultra-rare issue of a 100-year note, following a bumper deal in the US. »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
🇺🇸 @newyorkfed.org inflation expectations fell slightly in January
➡️3.1%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations
➡️3.1%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations
February 9, 2026 at 5:15 PM
🇺🇸 @newyorkfed.org inflation expectations fell slightly in January
➡️3.1%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations
➡️3.1%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations
US Economy is 'Paradox' of Strong Growth, Underlying Weakness: EY's Daco
www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
Watch US Economy is 'Paradox' of Strong Growth, Underlying Weakness: EY's Daco - Bloomberg
Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss the state of the US economy, saying that he currently sees a "paradox" of strong growth paired with underlying weakne...
www.bloomberg.com
February 9, 2026 at 3:25 PM
US Economy is 'Paradox' of Strong Growth, Underlying Weakness: EY's Daco
www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
"Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concerns over concentration risks and market volatility... The directive doesn’t apply to China’s state holdings of US Treasuries."
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 9, 2026 at 2:29 PM
"Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concerns over concentration risks and market volatility... The directive doesn’t apply to China’s state holdings of US Treasuries."
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a historic election triumph, positioning her as the nation’s strongest leader in the postwar era in an outcome that sent stock prices and bond yields soaring.
bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 9, 2026 at 2:23 PM
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a historic election triumph, positioning her as the nation’s strongest leader in the postwar era in an outcome that sent stock prices and bond yields soaring.
bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com/news/article...
💙 What a game! Wonderful @mancity.com ! And that ending 🤯 — let the goal stand at 3-1 and don’t give a red card to Szoboszlai…
February 8, 2026 at 8:51 PM
💙 What a game! Wonderful @mancity.com ! And that ending 🤯 — let the goal stand at 3-1 and don’t give a red card to Szoboszlai…
“We’re in a deep freeze when it comes to the labor market,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.
www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
February 8, 2026 at 8:40 PM
“We’re in a deep freeze when it comes to the labor market,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.
www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
💳Credit cards were running hot during the holiday season... not income...
February 6, 2026 at 9:26 PM
💳Credit cards were running hot during the holiday season... not income...
Interesting chart using LLM to filter through Warsh’s speeches, transcripts, media interviews, papers, etc. ⤵️
This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
February 6, 2026 at 7:38 PM
Interesting chart using LLM to filter through Warsh’s speeches, transcripts, media interviews, papers, etc. ⤵️
🤯 Assuming these 4 hyperscalers' follow through on this expected $250bn increase in capex, and that only one fourth is pure domestic activity (i.e. 75% is offset by imports), that would lead to a 0.2% GDP boost in 2026!
Four of the biggest US technology companies together have forecast capital expenditures that will reach about $650 billion in 2026 — a mind-boggling tide of cash earmarked for new data centers and all the gear housed within them.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 6, 2026 at 5:19 PM
🤯 Assuming these 4 hyperscalers' follow through on this expected $250bn increase in capex, and that only one fourth is pure domestic activity (i.e. 75% is offset by imports), that would lead to a 0.2% GDP boost in 2026!
Four of the biggest US technology companies together have forecast capital expenditures that will reach about $650 billion in 2026 — a mind-boggling tide of cash earmarked for new data centers and all the gear housed within them.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 6, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Four of the biggest US technology companies together have forecast capital expenditures that will reach about $650 billion in 2026 — a mind-boggling tide of cash earmarked for new data centers and all the gear housed within them.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Gliding along the pre-pandemic Beveridge curve -- points to likely further increases in the #unemployment rate in 2026
February 6, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Gliding along the pre-pandemic Beveridge curve -- points to likely further increases in the #unemployment rate in 2026
⚠️Bank of England voted 5–4 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75% with easing bias
"Risk from greater inflation persistence has continued to become less pronounced while some risks to inflation from weaker demand & loosening labour market remain...
Bank Rate likely to be reduced further"
"Risk from greater inflation persistence has continued to become less pronounced while some risks to inflation from weaker demand & loosening labour market remain...
Bank Rate likely to be reduced further"
February 6, 2026 at 12:20 AM
⚠️Bank of England voted 5–4 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75% with easing bias
"Risk from greater inflation persistence has continued to become less pronounced while some risks to inflation from weaker demand & loosening labour market remain...
Bank Rate likely to be reduced further"
"Risk from greater inflation persistence has continued to become less pronounced while some risks to inflation from weaker demand & loosening labour market remain...
Bank Rate likely to be reduced further"
Reposted by Gregory Daco
BESSENT SAYS IF TRUMP WINS IRS SUIT, $10B WOULD COME FROM TAXPAYERS
February 5, 2026 at 4:49 PM
BESSENT SAYS IF TRUMP WINS IRS SUIT, $10B WOULD COME FROM TAXPAYERS
🇺🇸December #JOLTS: US labor market is weakening with low hiring, low openings & layoffs trending higher (though not surging)
🔻Job openings: 6.5mn (-386k): post Covid low
🔼Hiring: 5.3mn (+172k): near post-Covid low
🔼Quits: 3.2mn (+1k): 7-mo high
🔺Layoff: 1.8mn (+61k)
🔻Job openings: 6.5mn (-386k): post Covid low
🔼Hiring: 5.3mn (+172k): near post-Covid low
🔼Quits: 3.2mn (+1k): 7-mo high
🔺Layoff: 1.8mn (+61k)
February 5, 2026 at 3:55 PM
🇺🇸December #JOLTS: US labor market is weakening with low hiring, low openings & layoffs trending higher (though not surging)
🔻Job openings: 6.5mn (-386k): post Covid low
🔼Hiring: 5.3mn (+172k): near post-Covid low
🔼Quits: 3.2mn (+1k): 7-mo high
🔺Layoff: 1.8mn (+61k)
🔻Job openings: 6.5mn (-386k): post Covid low
🔼Hiring: 5.3mn (+172k): near post-Covid low
🔼Quits: 3.2mn (+1k): 7-mo high
🔺Layoff: 1.8mn (+61k)
🚨 Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 108k #job cut announcements in January
⛔+205% m/m
⛔+118% y/y
⛔Highest January since 2009
⚠️Transportation (led by UPS), Tech (led by Amazon), & Healthcare (Medicaid/Medicare) led the cut announcements
⛔+205% m/m
⛔+118% y/y
⛔Highest January since 2009
⚠️Transportation (led by UPS), Tech (led by Amazon), & Healthcare (Medicaid/Medicare) led the cut announcements
February 5, 2026 at 2:44 PM
🚨 Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 108k #job cut announcements in January
⛔+205% m/m
⛔+118% y/y
⛔Highest January since 2009
⚠️Transportation (led by UPS), Tech (led by Amazon), & Healthcare (Medicaid/Medicare) led the cut announcements
⛔+205% m/m
⛔+118% y/y
⛔Highest January since 2009
⚠️Transportation (led by UPS), Tech (led by Amazon), & Healthcare (Medicaid/Medicare) led the cut announcements
US Initial claims for #unemployment jumped higher in week-ended January 31, 2026.
Nothing alarming, but noteworthy after seasonal decline at the end of 2025 -- could be related to 🥶winter storm🌨️ across most of the country.
📉Claims: 221k (+22k)
📉4-wk avg: 212k (+6k)
Nothing alarming, but noteworthy after seasonal decline at the end of 2025 -- could be related to 🥶winter storm🌨️ across most of the country.
📉Claims: 221k (+22k)
📉4-wk avg: 212k (+6k)
February 5, 2026 at 1:44 PM
US Initial claims for #unemployment jumped higher in week-ended January 31, 2026.
Nothing alarming, but noteworthy after seasonal decline at the end of 2025 -- could be related to 🥶winter storm🌨️ across most of the country.
📉Claims: 221k (+22k)
📉4-wk avg: 212k (+6k)
Nothing alarming, but noteworthy after seasonal decline at the end of 2025 -- could be related to 🥶winter storm🌨️ across most of the country.
📉Claims: 221k (+22k)
📉4-wk avg: 212k (+6k)