Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @EY @EY-Parthenon
President @National Association for Business Economics
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt
Football player & @ManCity fan
Once-a-year triathlete
Belgian heart. American mind.
Father of 3. Husband of one
President @National Association for Business Economics
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt
Football player & @ManCity fan
Once-a-year triathlete
Belgian heart. American mind.
Father of 3. Husband of one
❄️ December 2025 US Executive Briefing
⛸️ Skating on thin ice... into 2026
🏛️Fragile A-pillars: The US economy’s three narrow A-pillars of growth — affluent consumers, AI-driven investment and asset-price strength — are becoming more fragile
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
⛸️ Skating on thin ice... into 2026
🏛️Fragile A-pillars: The US economy’s three narrow A-pillars of growth — affluent consumers, AI-driven investment and asset-price strength — are becoming more fragile
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
December 19, 2025 at 1:42 PM
❄️ December 2025 US Executive Briefing
⛸️ Skating on thin ice... into 2026
🏛️Fragile A-pillars: The US economy’s three narrow A-pillars of growth — affluent consumers, AI-driven investment and asset-price strength — are becoming more fragile
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
⛸️ Skating on thin ice... into 2026
🏛️Fragile A-pillars: The US economy’s three narrow A-pillars of growth — affluent consumers, AI-driven investment and asset-price strength — are becoming more fragile
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
Japan raises interest rates to highest level in 30 years
« In a statement on Friday, the BoJ said it was raising its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to “around 0.75% »
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
« In a statement on Friday, the BoJ said it was raising its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to “around 0.75% »
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
December 19, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Japan raises interest rates to highest level in 30 years
« In a statement on Friday, the BoJ said it was raising its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to “around 0.75% »
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
« In a statement on Friday, the BoJ said it was raising its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to “around 0.75% »
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
😦 Extremely noisy US CPI #inflation
📉Average Oct & Nov m/m change:
📈#CPI +0.1%
🟠Core +0.1%
🍲Food +0%
⛽️Energy +0.5% (Gas +0.4%)
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0.2%
🚘Used 0.5%
👕Apparel -0.4%
✅Core svc 0.1%
🏘️Shelter 0.1%
🏨Hotel -0.8%
🏥Med 0.1%
🛫Air -3.3%
📜Car insur -0.2%
📉Average Oct & Nov m/m change:
📈#CPI +0.1%
🟠Core +0.1%
🍲Food +0%
⛽️Energy +0.5% (Gas +0.4%)
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0.2%
🚘Used 0.5%
👕Apparel -0.4%
✅Core svc 0.1%
🏘️Shelter 0.1%
🏨Hotel -0.8%
🏥Med 0.1%
🛫Air -3.3%
📜Car insur -0.2%
December 18, 2025 at 2:44 PM
😦 Extremely noisy US CPI #inflation
📉Average Oct & Nov m/m change:
📈#CPI +0.1%
🟠Core +0.1%
🍲Food +0%
⛽️Energy +0.5% (Gas +0.4%)
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0.2%
🚘Used 0.5%
👕Apparel -0.4%
✅Core svc 0.1%
🏘️Shelter 0.1%
🏨Hotel -0.8%
🏥Med 0.1%
🛫Air -3.3%
📜Car insur -0.2%
📉Average Oct & Nov m/m change:
📈#CPI +0.1%
🟠Core +0.1%
🍲Food +0%
⛽️Energy +0.5% (Gas +0.4%)
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0.2%
🚘Used 0.5%
👕Apparel -0.4%
✅Core svc 0.1%
🏘️Shelter 0.1%
🏨Hotel -0.8%
🏥Med 0.1%
🛫Air -3.3%
📜Car insur -0.2%
🇬🇧Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25ppt, to 3.75%.
« Although above the 2% target, inflation now expected to fall back towards target more quickly in the near term… risk from greater persistence somewhat less pronounced »
« Although above the 2% target, inflation now expected to fall back towards target more quickly in the near term… risk from greater persistence somewhat less pronounced »
December 18, 2025 at 12:55 PM
🇬🇧Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25ppt, to 3.75%.
« Although above the 2% target, inflation now expected to fall back towards target more quickly in the near term… risk from greater persistence somewhat less pronounced »
« Although above the 2% target, inflation now expected to fall back towards target more quickly in the near term… risk from greater persistence somewhat less pronounced »
Reposted by Gregory Daco
“.. Wage growth is rapidly easing and judging by leading indicators and conversations with business executives there is more deceleration in the pipeline (lower raises and lower entry wages).”
- @gregdaco.bsky.social
- @gregdaco.bsky.social
December 17, 2025 at 12:16 PM
“.. Wage growth is rapidly easing and judging by leading indicators and conversations with business executives there is more deceleration in the pipeline (lower raises and lower entry wages).”
- @gregdaco.bsky.social
- @gregdaco.bsky.social
President Trump is set to interview another candidate for Federal Reserve chair, governor Christopher Waller, on Wednesday
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Exclusive | Trump Set to Interview Fed’s Christopher Waller for Chair
The president has indicated that Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are the front-runners to succeed Jerome Powell next year.
www.wsj.com
December 16, 2025 at 8:56 PM
President Trump is set to interview another candidate for Federal Reserve chair, governor Christopher Waller, on Wednesday
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
🌍 EY Global Economic Outlook 2026: Resilience in a Supply-Driven World
The global economy is entering a new phase—one shaped less by demand cycles and more by supply-side forces.
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
The global economy is entering a new phase—one shaped less by demand cycles and more by supply-side forces.
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
#globaleconomy #economicoutlook #eyparthenon #strategy #geoeconomics #ai #trade #leadership | Gregory Daco
🌍 EY Global Economic Outlook 2026: Resilience in a Supply-Driven World
The global economy is entering a new phase—one shaped less by demand cycles and more by supply-side forces.
Our EY-Parthenon G...
www.linkedin.com
December 16, 2025 at 4:34 PM
🌍 EY Global Economic Outlook 2026: Resilience in a Supply-Driven World
The global economy is entering a new phase—one shaped less by demand cycles and more by supply-side forces.
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
The global economy is entering a new phase—one shaped less by demand cycles and more by supply-side forces.
www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...
US #Retail sales: Mixed bag with softness in Oct
🟠Sales +0%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted
✅Core sales +0.8%
✅Volumes
🛋️Furn 2.3%
⚽️Sports 1.9%
💻Online 1.8%
👗Cloth 0.9%
🎮Elec 0.7%
🏬Merch 0.5%
🛒Groc 0.3%
👩🍳Rest/bar -0.4%
⚕️Health -0.6%
⛽️Gas -0.8%
🏠Build mat -0.9%
🚗Auto -1.6%
🟠Sales +0%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted
✅Core sales +0.8%
✅Volumes
🛋️Furn 2.3%
⚽️Sports 1.9%
💻Online 1.8%
👗Cloth 0.9%
🎮Elec 0.7%
🏬Merch 0.5%
🛒Groc 0.3%
👩🍳Rest/bar -0.4%
⚕️Health -0.6%
⛽️Gas -0.8%
🏠Build mat -0.9%
🚗Auto -1.6%
December 16, 2025 at 2:21 PM
US #Retail sales: Mixed bag with softness in Oct
🟠Sales +0%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted
✅Core sales +0.8%
✅Volumes
🛋️Furn 2.3%
⚽️Sports 1.9%
💻Online 1.8%
👗Cloth 0.9%
🎮Elec 0.7%
🏬Merch 0.5%
🛒Groc 0.3%
👩🍳Rest/bar -0.4%
⚕️Health -0.6%
⛽️Gas -0.8%
🏠Build mat -0.9%
🚗Auto -1.6%
🟠Sales +0%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted
✅Core sales +0.8%
✅Volumes
🛋️Furn 2.3%
⚽️Sports 1.9%
💻Online 1.8%
👗Cloth 0.9%
🎮Elec 0.7%
🏬Merch 0.5%
🛒Groc 0.3%
👩🍳Rest/bar -0.4%
⚕️Health -0.6%
⛽️Gas -0.8%
🏠Build mat -0.9%
🚗Auto -1.6%
US #Jobsreport Oct/Nov '25: ❄️"Frozen & weak"
📅Nov
🟠Payrolls +64k
🟠Private +69k
🟠Gds +19k
🟠Services +50k
🔻Gov -5k
✅Diffusion 57%
🚨October: -105k
🚨Revisions Aug/Sep: -33k
🟠Hours +0.3%
🔺#Unemployment 4.6%
✅Part rate 62.5%
📉Wages
✅+0.1% m/m
✅3.5% y/y
📅Nov
🟠Payrolls +64k
🟠Private +69k
🟠Gds +19k
🟠Services +50k
🔻Gov -5k
✅Diffusion 57%
🚨October: -105k
🚨Revisions Aug/Sep: -33k
🟠Hours +0.3%
🔺#Unemployment 4.6%
✅Part rate 62.5%
📉Wages
✅+0.1% m/m
✅3.5% y/y
December 16, 2025 at 1:42 PM
US #Jobsreport Oct/Nov '25: ❄️"Frozen & weak"
📅Nov
🟠Payrolls +64k
🟠Private +69k
🟠Gds +19k
🟠Services +50k
🔻Gov -5k
✅Diffusion 57%
🚨October: -105k
🚨Revisions Aug/Sep: -33k
🟠Hours +0.3%
🔺#Unemployment 4.6%
✅Part rate 62.5%
📉Wages
✅+0.1% m/m
✅3.5% y/y
📅Nov
🟠Payrolls +64k
🟠Private +69k
🟠Gds +19k
🟠Services +50k
🔻Gov -5k
✅Diffusion 57%
🚨October: -105k
🚨Revisions Aug/Sep: -33k
🟠Hours +0.3%
🔺#Unemployment 4.6%
✅Part rate 62.5%
📉Wages
✅+0.1% m/m
✅3.5% y/y
Reposted by Gregory Daco
Can't actually find this on the BLS site, suggests we should be cautious on HH survey numbers (eg unemp rate) until '26
*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.
*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.
December 15, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Can't actually find this on the BLS site, suggests we should be cautious on HH survey numbers (eg unemp rate) until '26
*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.
*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.
🎌The Bank of Japan indicated further progress on wages, a key consideration that effectively cements the case for a rate hike this week www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
BOJ Signals Rate Hike Bar Is Cleared With Wage Momentum Intact
The Bank of Japan indicated further progress on the wage front, a key consideration that effectively cements the case for a rate hike this week, with a report showing that momentum for pay increases r...
www.bloomberg.com
December 15, 2025 at 3:58 PM
🎌The Bank of Japan indicated further progress on wages, a key consideration that effectively cements the case for a rate hike this week www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said "monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026" following last week’s interest-rate reduction
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Fed’s Williams Says Monetary Policy Now Well Positioned for 2026
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said monetary policy is well positioned for next year following last week’s interest-rate reduction, amid increased risks to employment and som...
www.bloomberg.com
December 15, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said "monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026" following last week’s interest-rate reduction
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Confidence among US homebuilders edged up in December as builders continued to deploy sales incentives to motivate buyers www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
December 15, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Confidence among US homebuilders edged up in December as builders continued to deploy sales incentives to motivate buyers www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Only Creative Destruction Will Boost European Competitiveness by Philippe Aghion @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/dAEUGds
Only Creative Destruction Will Boost European Competitiveness
Philippe Aghion explains how advanced economies in Europe (or elsewhere) can find their way back to the technological frontier.
prosyn.org
December 15, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Only Creative Destruction Will Boost European Competitiveness by Philippe Aghion @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/dAEUGds
Well played 🩵
December 14, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Well played 🩵
Reposted by Gregory Daco
*SOME ORACLE DATA CENTERS FOR OPENAI DELAYED TO 2028 FROM 2027
*ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES
Could become a common theme--you can't build w/o workers. Construction workers are mostly immigrants. Tariffs also increase materials costs...hard to have your cake & eat it too
*ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES
Could become a common theme--you can't build w/o workers. Construction workers are mostly immigrants. Tariffs also increase materials costs...hard to have your cake & eat it too
December 12, 2025 at 4:15 PM
*SOME ORACLE DATA CENTERS FOR OPENAI DELAYED TO 2028 FROM 2027
*ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES
Could become a common theme--you can't build w/o workers. Construction workers are mostly immigrants. Tariffs also increase materials costs...hard to have your cake & eat it too
*ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES
Could become a common theme--you can't build w/o workers. Construction workers are mostly immigrants. Tariffs also increase materials costs...hard to have your cake & eat it too
Trump Says He Is Leaning Toward Warsh or Hassett to Lead the Fed
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the next Fed chair should consult with him on interest rates
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the next Fed chair should consult with him on interest rates
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Exclusive | Trump Says He Is Leaning Toward Warsh or Hassett to Lead the Fed
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, the president said the next Fed chair should consult with him on interest rates.
www.wsj.com
December 12, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Trump Says He Is Leaning Toward Warsh or Hassett to Lead the Fed
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the next Fed chair should consult with him on interest rates
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the next Fed chair should consult with him on interest rates
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Across the US, affordability concerns are intensifying
“It’s not just lower-income families, it’s median & upper-median families that are increasingly feeling the burden of this affordability crisis” said Greg Daco, EY chief economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“It’s not just lower-income families, it’s median & upper-median families that are increasingly feeling the burden of this affordability crisis” said Greg Daco, EY chief economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The US Has an Affordability Problem — Are You Feeling the Pinch?
Across the US, affordability concerns are intensifying and infusing the political conversation. Bloomberg reporters want to hear your story.
www.bloomberg.com
December 12, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Across the US, affordability concerns are intensifying
“It’s not just lower-income families, it’s median & upper-median families that are increasingly feeling the burden of this affordability crisis” said Greg Daco, EY chief economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“It’s not just lower-income families, it’s median & upper-median families that are increasingly feeling the burden of this affordability crisis” said Greg Daco, EY chief economist
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Alright @mancity.com, the first to 10k followers wins 🩵
December 11, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Alright @mancity.com, the first to 10k followers wins 🩵
🏛️Act I
"Following a comprehensive review by the boards of directors of the regional Reserve Banks & unanimous concurrence of Federal Reserve Board members, the Fed announced the reappointment of Federal Reserve Bank presidents & first vice presidents"
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
"Following a comprehensive review by the boards of directors of the regional Reserve Banks & unanimous concurrence of Federal Reserve Board members, the Fed announced the reappointment of Federal Reserve Bank presidents & first vice presidents"
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Federal Reserve Board announces reappointment of Reserve Bank presidents and first vice presidents
Following a comprehensive review by the boards of directors of the regional Reserve Banks, and the unanimous concurrence of Federal Reserve Board members, the
www.federalreserve.gov
December 11, 2025 at 9:16 PM
🏛️Act I
"Following a comprehensive review by the boards of directors of the regional Reserve Banks & unanimous concurrence of Federal Reserve Board members, the Fed announced the reappointment of Federal Reserve Bank presidents & first vice presidents"
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
"Following a comprehensive review by the boards of directors of the regional Reserve Banks & unanimous concurrence of Federal Reserve Board members, the Fed announced the reappointment of Federal Reserve Bank presidents & first vice presidents"
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
President Trump wants lower interest rates and a new Fed chair. Wednesday’s divisions suggest one won’t guarantee the other.
December 11, 2025 at 6:51 PM
President Trump wants lower interest rates and a new Fed chair. Wednesday’s divisions suggest one won’t guarantee the other.
China leads objections to Trump carve-out on global minimum tax
December 11, 2025 at 6:24 PM
China leads objections to Trump carve-out on global minimum tax
📊US #trade deficit narrowed 11% to $52.8bn in Sep as exports surged
🪙Nonmonetary gold explains 75% of export surge & +100% import rise
✅Exports +3.0%
➕Food, Petroleum, Pharma
➖Autos, Computers/Chips
✅Imports +0.6%
➕Consumer led by pharma
➖Computers & Autos
🪙Nonmonetary gold explains 75% of export surge & +100% import rise
✅Exports +3.0%
➕Food, Petroleum, Pharma
➖Autos, Computers/Chips
✅Imports +0.6%
➕Consumer led by pharma
➖Computers & Autos
December 11, 2025 at 3:38 PM
📊US #trade deficit narrowed 11% to $52.8bn in Sep as exports surged
🪙Nonmonetary gold explains 75% of export surge & +100% import rise
✅Exports +3.0%
➕Food, Petroleum, Pharma
➖Autos, Computers/Chips
✅Imports +0.6%
➕Consumer led by pharma
➖Computers & Autos
🪙Nonmonetary gold explains 75% of export surge & +100% import rise
✅Exports +3.0%
➕Food, Petroleum, Pharma
➖Autos, Computers/Chips
✅Imports +0.6%
➕Consumer led by pharma
➖Computers & Autos
Fed Divisions Underscore Challenge for Trump’s Next Chair www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/b...
Trump Gets to Pick a New Fed Chair but a Divided Board Still Gets a Say
www.nytimes.com
December 11, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Fed Divisions Underscore Challenge for Trump’s Next Chair www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/b...
"Curious" US labor market fragility
📈Initial claims for #unemployment surged in week-ended Dec 6 *but* only offsetting the seasonal Thanksgiving slump. Continuing claims near a 4-year high.
📈Claims: 236k (+44k)
📈4-wk avg: 217k (+2k)
📈Initial claims for #unemployment surged in week-ended Dec 6 *but* only offsetting the seasonal Thanksgiving slump. Continuing claims near a 4-year high.
📈Claims: 236k (+44k)
📈4-wk avg: 217k (+2k)
December 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM
"Curious" US labor market fragility
📈Initial claims for #unemployment surged in week-ended Dec 6 *but* only offsetting the seasonal Thanksgiving slump. Continuing claims near a 4-year high.
📈Claims: 236k (+44k)
📈4-wk avg: 217k (+2k)
📈Initial claims for #unemployment surged in week-ended Dec 6 *but* only offsetting the seasonal Thanksgiving slump. Continuing claims near a 4-year high.
📈Claims: 236k (+44k)
📈4-wk avg: 217k (+2k)