Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @ EY EY-Parthenon
Vice President @ NABE
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt. Football player (the real one). Once-a-year triathlete. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
Vice President @ NABE
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt. Football player (the real one). Once-a-year triathlete. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
📉Major reversal in ADP National Employment Report weekly pulse
🔻NER weekly pulse -45k for last week of October, despite an average 42k advance for the month of October & 29k drop in the month of September.
📉Points to weak November private sector employment
www.adpresearch.com/the-ner-puls...
🔻NER weekly pulse -45k for last week of October, despite an average 42k advance for the month of October & 29k drop in the month of September.
📉Points to weak November private sector employment
www.adpresearch.com/the-ner-puls...
November 11, 2025 at 4:39 PM
📉Major reversal in ADP National Employment Report weekly pulse
🔻NER weekly pulse -45k for last week of October, despite an average 42k advance for the month of October & 29k drop in the month of September.
📉Points to weak November private sector employment
www.adpresearch.com/the-ner-puls...
🔻NER weekly pulse -45k for last week of October, despite an average 42k advance for the month of October & 29k drop in the month of September.
📉Points to weak November private sector employment
www.adpresearch.com/the-ner-puls...
🎶 @googoodollsmusic.bsky.social at @beacontheatre.bsky.social for the joe torre safe at home foundation
November 11, 2025 at 3:08 AM
🎶 @googoodollsmusic.bsky.social at @beacontheatre.bsky.social for the joe torre safe at home foundation
Reposted by Gregory Daco
‘The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends.’ www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
BOJ Summary of Opinions Show Next Rate-Hike Nearing
The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wa...
www.wsj.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:25 PM
‘The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends.’ www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
The Three ’A’s in the Trump Economy: AI, Asset Prices and the Affluent
“The economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow, interconnected ‘A-pillars’ ” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
“The economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow, interconnected ‘A-pillars’ ” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The Three ’A’s in the Trump Economy: AI, Asset Prices and the Affluent
Trump’s economy is being propped up by AI, affluent consumers and asset price gains
www.bloomberg.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:48 PM
The Three ’A’s in the Trump Economy: AI, Asset Prices and the Affluent
“The economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow, interconnected ‘A-pillars’ ” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
“The economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow, interconnected ‘A-pillars’ ” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Gulf between rich and poor risks US downturn, Fed official warns
November 10, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Gulf between rich and poor risks US downturn, Fed official warns
Gregory Daco said a permanent & immediate reversal of the IEEPA tariffs would significantly reverse pressure from #tariffs, cutting the hit to #GDP from 1% to 0.4%
"But the real catalyst for restoring confidence lies in the permanence & clarity of the policy shift"
finance.yahoo.com/news/treasur...
"But the real catalyst for restoring confidence lies in the permanence & clarity of the policy shift"
finance.yahoo.com/news/treasur...
finance.yahoo.com
November 8, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Gregory Daco said a permanent & immediate reversal of the IEEPA tariffs would significantly reverse pressure from #tariffs, cutting the hit to #GDP from 1% to 0.4%
"But the real catalyst for restoring confidence lies in the permanence & clarity of the policy shift"
finance.yahoo.com/news/treasur...
"But the real catalyst for restoring confidence lies in the permanence & clarity of the policy shift"
finance.yahoo.com/news/treasur...
"Even if there is a reopening of the government in the next couple of weeks, you're going to see a visible and permanent loss of economic activity as a result of the government shutdown," Gregory Daco, chief economist at @EY_Parthenon told @cbsnews.com.web.brid.gy
www.cbsnews.com/news/governm...
www.cbsnews.com/news/governm...
Government shutdown costing the economy billions of dollars each week
Estimates of the economic hit from the U.S. government shutdown put the losses at up to $16 billion every week the impasse continues.
www.cbsnews.com
November 8, 2025 at 10:03 PM
"Even if there is a reopening of the government in the next couple of weeks, you're going to see a visible and permanent loss of economic activity as a result of the government shutdown," Gregory Daco, chief economist at @EY_Parthenon told @cbsnews.com.web.brid.gy
www.cbsnews.com/news/governm...
www.cbsnews.com/news/governm...
🔻Job finding expectations has plunged in recent months -- mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost.
❗️Now at lowest since pandemic and 2014 before that.
❗️Now at lowest since pandemic and 2014 before that.
November 7, 2025 at 9:49 PM
🔻Job finding expectations has plunged in recent months -- mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost.
❗️Now at lowest since pandemic and 2014 before that.
❗️Now at lowest since pandemic and 2014 before that.
US @newyorkfed.bsky.social inflation expectations fell slightly in October
➡️3.2%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations, but no surge
⚠️More robust than volatile UMich inflation expectations
➡️3.2%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations, but no surge
⚠️More robust than volatile UMich inflation expectations
November 7, 2025 at 9:41 PM
US @newyorkfed.bsky.social inflation expectations fell slightly in October
➡️3.2%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations, but no surge
⚠️More robust than volatile UMich inflation expectations
➡️3.2%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations, but no surge
⚠️More robust than volatile UMich inflation expectations
While the report is concerning, I’d caution against assuming that these historically low sentiment readings will translate into meaningfully weaker consumer spending.
Sentiment today isn’t comparable to the levels seen during COVID or the Global Financial Crisis.
Sentiment today isn’t comparable to the levels seen during COVID or the Global Financial Crisis.
⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment fell to near-record low in November
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
November 7, 2025 at 9:29 PM
While the report is concerning, I’d caution against assuming that these historically low sentiment readings will translate into meaningfully weaker consumer spending.
Sentiment today isn’t comparable to the levels seen during COVID or the Global Financial Crisis.
Sentiment today isn’t comparable to the levels seen during COVID or the Global Financial Crisis.
⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment fell to near-record low in November
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
November 7, 2025 at 7:58 PM
⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment fell to near-record low in November
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
⚠️ @us-dot.bsky.social Secretary Duffy & FAA Administrator Bedford announced that the Trump administration would be cutting 10% of flights at 40 "high impact" airports... Airlines expected to cut at least 4% of Friday's flights & ramp up to 10% next week.
www.cbsnews.com/live-updates...
www.cbsnews.com/live-updates...
Flight cancellations ramp up as airlines scramble to comply with FAA order to cut air traffic — live updates
The FAA ordered airlines to cut thousands of flights as the agency deals with air traffic controller shortages during the government shutdown. The cuts began Friday morning.
www.cbsnews.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:58 PM
⚠️ @us-dot.bsky.social Secretary Duffy & FAA Administrator Bedford announced that the Trump administration would be cutting 10% of flights at 40 "high impact" airports... Airlines expected to cut at least 4% of Friday's flights & ramp up to 10% next week.
www.cbsnews.com/live-updates...
www.cbsnews.com/live-updates...
I feel oddly empty — the second straight jobs report that isn’t being released...
November 7, 2025 at 1:33 PM
I feel oddly empty — the second straight jobs report that isn’t being released...
US @newyorkfed.bsky.social Household Debt & Credit Report for Q3 '25
1⃣ Delinquency rate up marginally to 4.5%
2⃣ New 30-day delinquencies stable
3⃣ New 90-day delinquencies stable for auto loans, credit cards & mortgages
4⃣ Student loan delinquency transition rising but stock stable
1⃣ Delinquency rate up marginally to 4.5%
2⃣ New 30-day delinquencies stable
3⃣ New 90-day delinquencies stable for auto loans, credit cards & mortgages
4⃣ Student loan delinquency transition rising but stock stable
November 6, 2025 at 9:32 PM
US @newyorkfed.bsky.social Household Debt & Credit Report for Q3 '25
1⃣ Delinquency rate up marginally to 4.5%
2⃣ New 30-day delinquencies stable
3⃣ New 90-day delinquencies stable for auto loans, credit cards & mortgages
4⃣ Student loan delinquency transition rising but stock stable
1⃣ Delinquency rate up marginally to 4.5%
2⃣ New 30-day delinquencies stable
3⃣ New 90-day delinquencies stable for auto loans, credit cards & mortgages
4⃣ Student loan delinquency transition rising but stock stable
Reposted by Gregory Daco
November 6, 2025 at 4:38 PM
🤯I see K-shapes everywhere...
📉Large firms are still expanding their workforce but small and mid-sized businesses having been reducing employment in 5 out of the last 6 months
📉Large firms are still expanding their workforce but small and mid-sized businesses having been reducing employment in 5 out of the last 6 months
November 6, 2025 at 6:01 PM
🤯I see K-shapes everywhere...
📉Large firms are still expanding their workforce but small and mid-sized businesses having been reducing employment in 5 out of the last 6 months
📉Large firms are still expanding their workforce but small and mid-sized businesses having been reducing employment in 5 out of the last 6 months
🚨 Oof! Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153k #job cut announcements in October
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1mn) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1mn) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs
November 6, 2025 at 2:18 PM
🚨 Oof! Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153k #job cut announcements in October
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1mn) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1mn) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs
🚨Bank of England holds rate at 4%
⚖️ Vote 5-4
▶️"CPI inflation judged to have peaked"
▶️"Progress on underlying disinflation continues"
▶️"Supported by still restrictive monetary policy"
▶️"Subdued economic growth & building labor market slack"
▶️"Risks are now more balanced"
⚖️ Vote 5-4
▶️"CPI inflation judged to have peaked"
▶️"Progress on underlying disinflation continues"
▶️"Supported by still restrictive monetary policy"
▶️"Subdued economic growth & building labor market slack"
▶️"Risks are now more balanced"
November 6, 2025 at 1:55 PM
🚨Bank of England holds rate at 4%
⚖️ Vote 5-4
▶️"CPI inflation judged to have peaked"
▶️"Progress on underlying disinflation continues"
▶️"Supported by still restrictive monetary policy"
▶️"Subdued economic growth & building labor market slack"
▶️"Risks are now more balanced"
⚖️ Vote 5-4
▶️"CPI inflation judged to have peaked"
▶️"Progress on underlying disinflation continues"
▶️"Supported by still restrictive monetary policy"
▶️"Subdued economic growth & building labor market slack"
▶️"Risks are now more balanced"
Reposted by Gregory Daco
CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: The emergency authorization is “being used for a power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount for any length of time.” That “seems to be a misfit.”
@wsj.com #IEEFA
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
@wsj.com #IEEFA
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
November 5, 2025 at 11:37 PM
CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: The emergency authorization is “being used for a power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount for any length of time.” That “seems to be a misfit.”
@wsj.com #IEEFA
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
@wsj.com #IEEFA
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
US #Services activity rebounds in October, but employment is contracting, costs are rising & backlogs look somber
✅ISM Services 52.4 (🔼2.4pt)
✅Activity 54.3 (🔼4.4pt)
✅New Orders 56.2 (🔼5.8pt)
⛔️Employment 48.2 (🔼1.0pt)
⛔️Backlogs 40.8 (🔻6.8pt)
🔥Inflation 70 (🔺0.6pt)
✅ISM Services 52.4 (🔼2.4pt)
✅Activity 54.3 (🔼4.4pt)
✅New Orders 56.2 (🔼5.8pt)
⛔️Employment 48.2 (🔼1.0pt)
⛔️Backlogs 40.8 (🔻6.8pt)
🔥Inflation 70 (🔺0.6pt)
November 5, 2025 at 4:08 PM
US #Services activity rebounds in October, but employment is contracting, costs are rising & backlogs look somber
✅ISM Services 52.4 (🔼2.4pt)
✅Activity 54.3 (🔼4.4pt)
✅New Orders 56.2 (🔼5.8pt)
⛔️Employment 48.2 (🔼1.0pt)
⛔️Backlogs 40.8 (🔻6.8pt)
🔥Inflation 70 (🔺0.6pt)
✅ISM Services 52.4 (🔼2.4pt)
✅Activity 54.3 (🔼4.4pt)
✅New Orders 56.2 (🔼5.8pt)
⛔️Employment 48.2 (🔼1.0pt)
⛔️Backlogs 40.8 (🔻6.8pt)
🔥Inflation 70 (🔺0.6pt)
📈Soft private sector employment: +42k via
ADP in October
⚠️Not a guide to nonfarm payrolls
Key insights:
✅First gain since July
🟠3-month average only +3k
🔻Job losses for small & med-sided biz
✅Construction, trade, finance, healthcare/edu
🔻Manufacturing, leisure, professional & biz services, info
ADP in October
⚠️Not a guide to nonfarm payrolls
Key insights:
✅First gain since July
🟠3-month average only +3k
🔻Job losses for small & med-sided biz
✅Construction, trade, finance, healthcare/edu
🔻Manufacturing, leisure, professional & biz services, info
November 5, 2025 at 3:37 PM
📈Soft private sector employment: +42k via
ADP in October
⚠️Not a guide to nonfarm payrolls
Key insights:
✅First gain since July
🟠3-month average only +3k
🔻Job losses for small & med-sided biz
✅Construction, trade, finance, healthcare/edu
🔻Manufacturing, leisure, professional & biz services, info
ADP in October
⚠️Not a guide to nonfarm payrolls
Key insights:
✅First gain since July
🟠3-month average only +3k
🔻Job losses for small & med-sided biz
✅Construction, trade, finance, healthcare/edu
🔻Manufacturing, leisure, professional & biz services, info
Lovely morning run in D.C.
November 5, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Lovely morning run in D.C.