Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @ EY EY-Parthenon
Vice President @ NABE
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt. Football player (the real one). Once-a-year triathlete. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
Vice President @ NABE
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt. Football player (the real one). Once-a-year triathlete. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
A net 30% of small businesses is planning to raise prices but only a net 20% are doing it
Back to a price sensitive environment -- similar to pre-Covid
Another factor likely to lead to transitory inflation shock from tariffs.
Back to a price sensitive environment -- similar to pre-Covid
Another factor likely to lead to transitory inflation shock from tariffs.
November 11, 2025 at 10:20 PM
A net 30% of small businesses is planning to raise prices but only a net 20% are doing it
Back to a price sensitive environment -- similar to pre-Covid
Another factor likely to lead to transitory inflation shock from tariffs.
Back to a price sensitive environment -- similar to pre-Covid
Another factor likely to lead to transitory inflation shock from tariffs.
📉Major reversal in ADP National Employment Report weekly pulse
🔻NER weekly pulse -45k for last week of October, despite an average 42k advance for the month of October & 29k drop in the month of September.
📉Points to weak November private sector employment
www.adpresearch.com/the-ner-puls...
🔻NER weekly pulse -45k for last week of October, despite an average 42k advance for the month of October & 29k drop in the month of September.
📉Points to weak November private sector employment
www.adpresearch.com/the-ner-puls...
November 11, 2025 at 4:39 PM
📉Major reversal in ADP National Employment Report weekly pulse
🔻NER weekly pulse -45k for last week of October, despite an average 42k advance for the month of October & 29k drop in the month of September.
📉Points to weak November private sector employment
www.adpresearch.com/the-ner-puls...
🔻NER weekly pulse -45k for last week of October, despite an average 42k advance for the month of October & 29k drop in the month of September.
📉Points to weak November private sector employment
www.adpresearch.com/the-ner-puls...
🎶 @googoodollsmusic.bsky.social at @beacontheatre.bsky.social for the joe torre safe at home foundation
November 11, 2025 at 3:08 AM
🎶 @googoodollsmusic.bsky.social at @beacontheatre.bsky.social for the joe torre safe at home foundation
🔻Job finding expectations has plunged in recent months -- mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost.
❗️Now at lowest since pandemic and 2014 before that.
❗️Now at lowest since pandemic and 2014 before that.
November 7, 2025 at 9:49 PM
🔻Job finding expectations has plunged in recent months -- mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost.
❗️Now at lowest since pandemic and 2014 before that.
❗️Now at lowest since pandemic and 2014 before that.
US @newyorkfed.bsky.social inflation expectations fell slightly in October
➡️3.2%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations, but no surge
⚠️More robust than volatile UMich inflation expectations
➡️3.2%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations, but no surge
⚠️More robust than volatile UMich inflation expectations
November 7, 2025 at 9:41 PM
US @newyorkfed.bsky.social inflation expectations fell slightly in October
➡️3.2%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations, but no surge
⚠️More robust than volatile UMich inflation expectations
➡️3.2%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat)
⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations, but no surge
⚠️More robust than volatile UMich inflation expectations
🔥#Inflation expectations mixed in November
📈1-yr ahead: 4.7% (+0.1pt)
⚠️Up 1.9pt since Dec '24
⚠️Down from 6.6% in May
📉Next 5-yrs: 3.6% (-0.3pt)
⚠️Up 0.6pt since Dec '24
❔Direction of travel is telling (#tariff concern & salience) but levels largely insignificant
📈1-yr ahead: 4.7% (+0.1pt)
⚠️Up 1.9pt since Dec '24
⚠️Down from 6.6% in May
📉Next 5-yrs: 3.6% (-0.3pt)
⚠️Up 0.6pt since Dec '24
❔Direction of travel is telling (#tariff concern & salience) but levels largely insignificant
November 7, 2025 at 8:50 PM
🔥#Inflation expectations mixed in November
📈1-yr ahead: 4.7% (+0.1pt)
⚠️Up 1.9pt since Dec '24
⚠️Down from 6.6% in May
📉Next 5-yrs: 3.6% (-0.3pt)
⚠️Up 0.6pt since Dec '24
❔Direction of travel is telling (#tariff concern & salience) but levels largely insignificant
📈1-yr ahead: 4.7% (+0.1pt)
⚠️Up 1.9pt since Dec '24
⚠️Down from 6.6% in May
📉Next 5-yrs: 3.6% (-0.3pt)
⚠️Up 0.6pt since Dec '24
❔Direction of travel is telling (#tariff concern & salience) but levels largely insignificant
⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment fell to near-record low in November
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
November 7, 2025 at 7:58 PM
⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment fell to near-record low in November
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation
🔻Sentiment -6.2%
🔻Current Conditions -10.8%
🔻Expectations -2.6%
I feel oddly empty — the second straight jobs report that isn’t being released...
November 7, 2025 at 1:33 PM
I feel oddly empty — the second straight jobs report that isn’t being released...
⚠️Bifurcated economy
The transition rates into severe #delinquency for auto loans and credit card debt illustrates the much greater stress on household finances for the 18-29 year-old, and the 30-39 year-old
The transition rates into severe #delinquency for auto loans and credit card debt illustrates the much greater stress on household finances for the 18-29 year-old, and the 30-39 year-old
November 6, 2025 at 9:59 PM
⚠️Bifurcated economy
The transition rates into severe #delinquency for auto loans and credit card debt illustrates the much greater stress on household finances for the 18-29 year-old, and the 30-39 year-old
The transition rates into severe #delinquency for auto loans and credit card debt illustrates the much greater stress on household finances for the 18-29 year-old, and the 30-39 year-old
⛔️Transition rates into severe delinquency (+90 days) stable but elevated
💳Credit cards: 7.1% 🆚5.3% pre-Covid
🚗Auto loans: 3.0% 🆚 2.4% pre-Covid
🏠Mortgages: 1.3% 🆚 1.2% pre-Covid
👩🎓Student Loans: 14.3% 🆚 9.2% pre-Covid
💳Credit cards: 7.1% 🆚5.3% pre-Covid
🚗Auto loans: 3.0% 🆚 2.4% pre-Covid
🏠Mortgages: 1.3% 🆚 1.2% pre-Covid
👩🎓Student Loans: 14.3% 🆚 9.2% pre-Covid
November 6, 2025 at 9:59 PM
⛔️Transition rates into severe delinquency (+90 days) stable but elevated
💳Credit cards: 7.1% 🆚5.3% pre-Covid
🚗Auto loans: 3.0% 🆚 2.4% pre-Covid
🏠Mortgages: 1.3% 🆚 1.2% pre-Covid
👩🎓Student Loans: 14.3% 🆚 9.2% pre-Covid
💳Credit cards: 7.1% 🆚5.3% pre-Covid
🚗Auto loans: 3.0% 🆚 2.4% pre-Covid
🏠Mortgages: 1.3% 🆚 1.2% pre-Covid
👩🎓Student Loans: 14.3% 🆚 9.2% pre-Covid
💳Credit card debt is concerning:
⚠️12.4% of balances in severe delinquency (+90days)
⚠️highest since 2011
🚗Auto loan delinquencies are concerning:
⚠️5% of balances in severe delinquency (+90days)
⚠️highest since 2020 & 2011 before that
⚠️12.4% of balances in severe delinquency (+90days)
⚠️highest since 2011
🚗Auto loan delinquencies are concerning:
⚠️5% of balances in severe delinquency (+90days)
⚠️highest since 2020 & 2011 before that
November 6, 2025 at 9:59 PM
💳Credit card debt is concerning:
⚠️12.4% of balances in severe delinquency (+90days)
⚠️highest since 2011
🚗Auto loan delinquencies are concerning:
⚠️5% of balances in severe delinquency (+90days)
⚠️highest since 2020 & 2011 before that
⚠️12.4% of balances in severe delinquency (+90days)
⚠️highest since 2011
🚗Auto loan delinquencies are concerning:
⚠️5% of balances in severe delinquency (+90days)
⚠️highest since 2020 & 2011 before that
👩🎓Payments on federal student loans were paused from early 2020 through Sep '23
📉During this time, delinquency rate on student loans fell to <1%
💰Payments then resumed with a 1yr on-ramp until Oct 2024. Bank reporting resumed in Q1 '25
⚠️9.4% (~$155bn) are +90days delinquent
📉During this time, delinquency rate on student loans fell to <1%
💰Payments then resumed with a 1yr on-ramp until Oct 2024. Bank reporting resumed in Q1 '25
⚠️9.4% (~$155bn) are +90days delinquent
November 6, 2025 at 9:59 PM
👩🎓Payments on federal student loans were paused from early 2020 through Sep '23
📉During this time, delinquency rate on student loans fell to <1%
💰Payments then resumed with a 1yr on-ramp until Oct 2024. Bank reporting resumed in Q1 '25
⚠️9.4% (~$155bn) are +90days delinquent
📉During this time, delinquency rate on student loans fell to <1%
💰Payments then resumed with a 1yr on-ramp until Oct 2024. Bank reporting resumed in Q1 '25
⚠️9.4% (~$155bn) are +90days delinquent
📊Share of balances going from "current" to 30-day delinquent is surging on student loans reporting. Stable otherwise
💳Credit cards: 8.9% 🆚 6.8% pre-Covid
🚗Auto loans: 7.8% 🆚6.9% pre-Covid
🏠Mortgages: 3.6% 🆚 3.5% pre-Covid
👩🎓Student loans: 14.4% (RECORD) 🆚 9.1% pre-Covid
💳Credit cards: 8.9% 🆚 6.8% pre-Covid
🚗Auto loans: 7.8% 🆚6.9% pre-Covid
🏠Mortgages: 3.6% 🆚 3.5% pre-Covid
👩🎓Student loans: 14.4% (RECORD) 🆚 9.1% pre-Covid
November 6, 2025 at 9:59 PM
📊Share of balances going from "current" to 30-day delinquent is surging on student loans reporting. Stable otherwise
💳Credit cards: 8.9% 🆚 6.8% pre-Covid
🚗Auto loans: 7.8% 🆚6.9% pre-Covid
🏠Mortgages: 3.6% 🆚 3.5% pre-Covid
👩🎓Student loans: 14.4% (RECORD) 🆚 9.1% pre-Covid
💳Credit cards: 8.9% 🆚 6.8% pre-Covid
🚗Auto loans: 7.8% 🆚6.9% pre-Covid
🏠Mortgages: 3.6% 🆚 3.5% pre-Covid
👩🎓Student loans: 14.4% (RECORD) 🆚 9.1% pre-Covid
⚖️A nuanced credit picture as fixed cost debt has partially buffered the impact of #Fed's tightening cycle
📊30/90 day delinquencies have risen over past 2 years & now in pre-pandemic range
📉120+ days delinquencies surging as student loan delinquencies surge (banks reporting)
📊30/90 day delinquencies have risen over past 2 years & now in pre-pandemic range
📉120+ days delinquencies surging as student loan delinquencies surge (banks reporting)
November 6, 2025 at 9:59 PM
⚖️A nuanced credit picture as fixed cost debt has partially buffered the impact of #Fed's tightening cycle
📊30/90 day delinquencies have risen over past 2 years & now in pre-pandemic range
📉120+ days delinquencies surging as student loan delinquencies surge (banks reporting)
📊30/90 day delinquencies have risen over past 2 years & now in pre-pandemic range
📉120+ days delinquencies surging as student loan delinquencies surge (banks reporting)
US @newyorkfed.bsky.social Household Debt & Credit Report for Q3 '25
1⃣ Delinquency rate up marginally to 4.5%
2⃣ New 30-day delinquencies stable
3⃣ New 90-day delinquencies stable for auto loans, credit cards & mortgages
4⃣ Student loan delinquency transition rising but stock stable
1⃣ Delinquency rate up marginally to 4.5%
2⃣ New 30-day delinquencies stable
3⃣ New 90-day delinquencies stable for auto loans, credit cards & mortgages
4⃣ Student loan delinquency transition rising but stock stable
November 6, 2025 at 9:32 PM
US @newyorkfed.bsky.social Household Debt & Credit Report for Q3 '25
1⃣ Delinquency rate up marginally to 4.5%
2⃣ New 30-day delinquencies stable
3⃣ New 90-day delinquencies stable for auto loans, credit cards & mortgages
4⃣ Student loan delinquency transition rising but stock stable
1⃣ Delinquency rate up marginally to 4.5%
2⃣ New 30-day delinquencies stable
3⃣ New 90-day delinquencies stable for auto loans, credit cards & mortgages
4⃣ Student loan delinquency transition rising but stock stable
🤯I see K-shapes everywhere...
📉Large firms are still expanding their workforce but small and mid-sized businesses having been reducing employment in 5 out of the last 6 months
📉Large firms are still expanding their workforce but small and mid-sized businesses having been reducing employment in 5 out of the last 6 months
November 6, 2025 at 6:01 PM
🤯I see K-shapes everywhere...
📉Large firms are still expanding their workforce but small and mid-sized businesses having been reducing employment in 5 out of the last 6 months
📉Large firms are still expanding their workforce but small and mid-sized businesses having been reducing employment in 5 out of the last 6 months
📉This report is symptomatic of weakening employment growth with business leaders seeing reduced final demand growth, pervasive uncertainty, higher costs from tariffs & AI-productivity as a rationale to reduce their talent pool via strategic layoffs & lower hiring
⛔Year-to-date job cuts +65% y/y
⛔Year-to-date job cuts +65% y/y
November 6, 2025 at 2:32 PM
📉This report is symptomatic of weakening employment growth with business leaders seeing reduced final demand growth, pervasive uncertainty, higher costs from tariffs & AI-productivity as a rationale to reduce their talent pool via strategic layoffs & lower hiring
⛔Year-to-date job cuts +65% y/y
⛔Year-to-date job cuts +65% y/y
🚨 Oof! Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153k #job cut announcements in October
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1mn) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1mn) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs
November 6, 2025 at 2:18 PM
🚨 Oof! Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153k #job cut announcements in October
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1mn) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs
🔺+183% m/m
🔺+175% y/y
🛑Highest October since 2003
🛑Highest YTD (1.1mn) since 2020
⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts
❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs
Key statement from BoE:
"The risk from greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced recently, and the risk to medium-term inflation from weaker demand more apparent, such that overall the risks are now more balanced. But more evidence is needed on both."
"The risk from greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced recently, and the risk to medium-term inflation from weaker demand more apparent, such that overall the risks are now more balanced. But more evidence is needed on both."
November 6, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Key statement from BoE:
"The risk from greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced recently, and the risk to medium-term inflation from weaker demand more apparent, such that overall the risks are now more balanced. But more evidence is needed on both."
"The risk from greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced recently, and the risk to medium-term inflation from weaker demand more apparent, such that overall the risks are now more balanced. But more evidence is needed on both."
🚨Bank of England holds rate at 4%
⚖️ Vote 5-4
▶️"CPI inflation judged to have peaked"
▶️"Progress on underlying disinflation continues"
▶️"Supported by still restrictive monetary policy"
▶️"Subdued economic growth & building labor market slack"
▶️"Risks are now more balanced"
⚖️ Vote 5-4
▶️"CPI inflation judged to have peaked"
▶️"Progress on underlying disinflation continues"
▶️"Supported by still restrictive monetary policy"
▶️"Subdued economic growth & building labor market slack"
▶️"Risks are now more balanced"
November 6, 2025 at 1:55 PM
🚨Bank of England holds rate at 4%
⚖️ Vote 5-4
▶️"CPI inflation judged to have peaked"
▶️"Progress on underlying disinflation continues"
▶️"Supported by still restrictive monetary policy"
▶️"Subdued economic growth & building labor market slack"
▶️"Risks are now more balanced"
⚖️ Vote 5-4
▶️"CPI inflation judged to have peaked"
▶️"Progress on underlying disinflation continues"
▶️"Supported by still restrictive monetary policy"
▶️"Subdued economic growth & building labor market slack"
▶️"Risks are now more balanced"
Purchasing managers report mixed sentiment as a result of the uncertainty, lingering tariff shock, and government shutdown.
Outside of the AI-influenced segments, demand is soft, but not collapsing.
Outside of the AI-influenced segments, demand is soft, but not collapsing.
November 5, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Purchasing managers report mixed sentiment as a result of the uncertainty, lingering tariff shock, and government shutdown.
Outside of the AI-influenced segments, demand is soft, but not collapsing.
Outside of the AI-influenced segments, demand is soft, but not collapsing.
US #Services activity rebounds in October, but employment is contracting, costs are rising & backlogs look somber
✅ISM Services 52.4 (🔼2.4pt)
✅Activity 54.3 (🔼4.4pt)
✅New Orders 56.2 (🔼5.8pt)
⛔️Employment 48.2 (🔼1.0pt)
⛔️Backlogs 40.8 (🔻6.8pt)
🔥Inflation 70 (🔺0.6pt)
✅ISM Services 52.4 (🔼2.4pt)
✅Activity 54.3 (🔼4.4pt)
✅New Orders 56.2 (🔼5.8pt)
⛔️Employment 48.2 (🔼1.0pt)
⛔️Backlogs 40.8 (🔻6.8pt)
🔥Inflation 70 (🔺0.6pt)
November 5, 2025 at 4:08 PM
US #Services activity rebounds in October, but employment is contracting, costs are rising & backlogs look somber
✅ISM Services 52.4 (🔼2.4pt)
✅Activity 54.3 (🔼4.4pt)
✅New Orders 56.2 (🔼5.8pt)
⛔️Employment 48.2 (🔼1.0pt)
⛔️Backlogs 40.8 (🔻6.8pt)
🔥Inflation 70 (🔺0.6pt)
✅ISM Services 52.4 (🔼2.4pt)
✅Activity 54.3 (🔼4.4pt)
✅New Orders 56.2 (🔼5.8pt)
⛔️Employment 48.2 (🔼1.0pt)
⛔️Backlogs 40.8 (🔻6.8pt)
🔥Inflation 70 (🔺0.6pt)
⚠️With only 12 data points for ADP's weekly private payroll gauge, one should be cautious about inferences for ADP's monthly national employment report & **extremely** careful about any conclusions about the BLS payroll report
📉At very high level, labor demand appears muted
📉At very high level, labor demand appears muted
November 5, 2025 at 3:42 PM
⚠️With only 12 data points for ADP's weekly private payroll gauge, one should be cautious about inferences for ADP's monthly national employment report & **extremely** careful about any conclusions about the BLS payroll report
📉At very high level, labor demand appears muted
📉At very high level, labor demand appears muted
📈Soft private sector employment: +42k via
ADP in October
⚠️Not a guide to nonfarm payrolls
Key insights:
✅First gain since July
🟠3-month average only +3k
🔻Job losses for small & med-sided biz
✅Construction, trade, finance, healthcare/edu
🔻Manufacturing, leisure, professional & biz services, info
ADP in October
⚠️Not a guide to nonfarm payrolls
Key insights:
✅First gain since July
🟠3-month average only +3k
🔻Job losses for small & med-sided biz
✅Construction, trade, finance, healthcare/edu
🔻Manufacturing, leisure, professional & biz services, info
November 5, 2025 at 3:37 PM
📈Soft private sector employment: +42k via
ADP in October
⚠️Not a guide to nonfarm payrolls
Key insights:
✅First gain since July
🟠3-month average only +3k
🔻Job losses for small & med-sided biz
✅Construction, trade, finance, healthcare/edu
🔻Manufacturing, leisure, professional & biz services, info
ADP in October
⚠️Not a guide to nonfarm payrolls
Key insights:
✅First gain since July
🟠3-month average only +3k
🔻Job losses for small & med-sided biz
✅Construction, trade, finance, healthcare/edu
🔻Manufacturing, leisure, professional & biz services, info
Lovely morning run in D.C.
November 5, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Lovely morning run in D.C.