Wendy Edelberg
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social
Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Previously, director of The Hamilton Project at Brookings and before that chief economist of CBO.
Trump won’t pay SNAP benefits because the US Treasury has to “remain liquid.”
What? What? What?
What? What? What?
November 8, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Trump won’t pay SNAP benefits because the US Treasury has to “remain liquid.”
What? What? What?
What? What? What?
The decline in work permit applications among immigrants is stunning. @hamiltonproject.org is tracking this on the regular: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.
My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.
September 29, 2025 at 2:28 PM
The decline in work permit applications among immigrants is stunning. @hamiltonproject.org is tracking this on the regular: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.
My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.
Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??
September 20, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??
Since immigration’s effect on job growth is in the news:
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
September 18, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Since immigration’s effect on job growth is in the news:
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
With @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and @stanveuger.bsky.social we explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s a lot of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in the table here.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
September 5, 2025 at 12:48 PM
With @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and @stanveuger.bsky.social we explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s a lot of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in the table here.
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
With immigration policy as it is, we need to radically adjust our expectations of the employment report. The reason that the unemployment rate can be at a low 4.3% with an increase in jobs of only 22,000 is because 22k is now a healthy payroll increase. And, that number is only going down.
September 5, 2025 at 12:36 PM
With immigration policy as it is, we need to radically adjust our expectations of the employment report. The reason that the unemployment rate can be at a low 4.3% with an increase in jobs of only 22,000 is because 22k is now a healthy payroll increase. And, that number is only going down.
The workers who are quitting accommodations and food services (eg, hotels and restaurants - disproportionately staffed by immigrants) are not being replaced. Here's job openings.
September 4, 2025 at 4:51 PM
The workers who are quitting accommodations and food services (eg, hotels and restaurants - disproportionately staffed by immigrants) are not being replaced. Here's job openings.
I think we're seeing evidence of ⬇️immigration & ⬆️deportations in the accommodation & food service sector. Seems we were at stable 550,000 monthly quits, then March to July: an astonishing extra 610,000 quits. The sector has fewer people to serve, helping to explain why wage growth remains modest.
September 4, 2025 at 2:31 PM
I think we're seeing evidence of ⬇️immigration & ⬆️deportations in the accommodation & food service sector. Seems we were at stable 550,000 monthly quits, then March to July: an astonishing extra 610,000 quits. The sector has fewer people to serve, helping to explain why wage growth remains modest.
It's remarkable to me that markets aren't pricing in monetary policy being set to achieve the goals & whims of the President, who has been clear he wants lower rates because he thinks that will save federal interest costs (true until the day infl expectations rise, pushing interest costs up wildly).
August 29, 2025 at 1:00 PM
It's remarkable to me that markets aren't pricing in monetary policy being set to achieve the goals & whims of the President, who has been clear he wants lower rates because he thinks that will save federal interest costs (true until the day infl expectations rise, pushing interest costs up wildly).
Immigration!
It may well be that this is what a healthy labor market in the US looks like now.
From @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
& me: www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
Labor supply growth has come to a screaming halt. This is the emp growth the US can sustain right now.
It may well be that this is what a healthy labor market in the US looks like now.
From @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
& me: www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
Labor supply growth has come to a screaming halt. This is the emp growth the US can sustain right now.
August 1, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Immigration!
It may well be that this is what a healthy labor market in the US looks like now.
From @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
& me: www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
Labor supply growth has come to a screaming halt. This is the emp growth the US can sustain right now.
It may well be that this is what a healthy labor market in the US looks like now.
From @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
& me: www.aei.org/wp-content/u...
Labor supply growth has come to a screaming halt. This is the emp growth the US can sustain right now.
The slowing in applications you see in this figure in May 2025 & the much higher denials rates under Trump are a strong sign labor supply growth will step down in coming months. That will mean a "good"/"not recessionary"/"full employment" monthly payroll number will be 10k to 40k in not too long.
July 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The slowing in applications you see in this figure in May 2025 & the much higher denials rates under Trump are a strong sign labor supply growth will step down in coming months. That will mean a "good"/"not recessionary"/"full employment" monthly payroll number will be 10k to 40k in not too long.
Why do I think - even though immigration has significantly slowed - recent immigrants (those who came before Trump 2.0 and before summer 2024 changes in the rule) still pushed up labor supply in the first half of 2025?
See this picture. Work permit applications were crazy high from Jan to April.
See this picture. Work permit applications were crazy high from Jan to April.
July 3, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Why do I think - even though immigration has significantly slowed - recent immigrants (those who came before Trump 2.0 and before summer 2024 changes in the rule) still pushed up labor supply in the first half of 2025?
See this picture. Work permit applications were crazy high from Jan to April.
See this picture. Work permit applications were crazy high from Jan to April.
ADP (no means a perfect read) suggests net LOSS of 33K jobs in June. But, my recent report w/@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social: www.aei.org/research-pro... explains how immigration policy will dramatically reduce what is a "good" number. Could fall to 10k a month later this year.
July 2, 2025 at 3:16 PM
ADP (no means a perfect read) suggests net LOSS of 33K jobs in June. But, my recent report w/@taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social: www.aei.org/research-pro... explains how immigration policy will dramatically reduce what is a "good" number. Could fall to 10k a month later this year.
Report out w/ @taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social: www.aei.org/wp-content/u....
We show what current immigration policy means: Our “low” scenario & indeed much of the expected range shows negative net migration. As July 4 approaches: What kind of country do we want the US to be?
We show what current immigration policy means: Our “low” scenario & indeed much of the expected range shows negative net migration. As July 4 approaches: What kind of country do we want the US to be?
July 2, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Report out w/ @taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social: www.aei.org/wp-content/u....
We show what current immigration policy means: Our “low” scenario & indeed much of the expected range shows negative net migration. As July 4 approaches: What kind of country do we want the US to be?
We show what current immigration policy means: Our “low” scenario & indeed much of the expected range shows negative net migration. As July 4 approaches: What kind of country do we want the US to be?
You can see the extraordinary spike in imports from Ireland of chemical manufacturing (which includes pharmaceuticals) in @hamiltonproject.org trade tracker.
And much more: the data are here www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
The mayhem in trade will only continue.
And much more: the data are here www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
The mayhem in trade will only continue.
May 8, 2025 at 4:03 AM
You can see the extraordinary spike in imports from Ireland of chemical manufacturing (which includes pharmaceuticals) in @hamiltonproject.org trade tracker.
And much more: the data are here www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
The mayhem in trade will only continue.
And much more: the data are here www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
The mayhem in trade will only continue.
Yesterday's tariff actions will mean more chaos, less near-term investment & higher prices.
But, don't focus breathlessly on recent stock market moves, thinking surely Trump will pivot in response.
It isn't a big enough drop to move the policy needle.
But, don't focus breathlessly on recent stock market moves, thinking surely Trump will pivot in response.
It isn't a big enough drop to move the policy needle.
April 3, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Yesterday's tariff actions will mean more chaos, less near-term investment & higher prices.
But, don't focus breathlessly on recent stock market moves, thinking surely Trump will pivot in response.
It isn't a big enough drop to move the policy needle.
But, don't focus breathlessly on recent stock market moves, thinking surely Trump will pivot in response.
It isn't a big enough drop to move the policy needle.
Hamilton Project trade tracker now shows February data. www.brookings.edu/articles/tra... Imports stayed very high as firms front run possible tariffs (when? which goods? how much? who knows?).
If some warehouses are bulging w/ stuff, seems likely that some importers will be left high & dry, yes?
If some warehouses are bulging w/ stuff, seems likely that some importers will be left high & dry, yes?
April 1, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Hamilton Project trade tracker now shows February data. www.brookings.edu/articles/tra... Imports stayed very high as firms front run possible tariffs (when? which goods? how much? who knows?).
If some warehouses are bulging w/ stuff, seems likely that some importers will be left high & dry, yes?
If some warehouses are bulging w/ stuff, seems likely that some importers will be left high & dry, yes?
Business surveys are showing the negative effects of Trump's lurching tariff policy and resulting uncertainty. From February to March, the percentage of businesses surveyed by Philly Fed that expected to increase cap ex fell from about 40% to 20%. Literally the largest decline in series history.
March 18, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Business surveys are showing the negative effects of Trump's lurching tariff policy and resulting uncertainty. From February to March, the percentage of businesses surveyed by Philly Fed that expected to increase cap ex fell from about 40% to 20%. Literally the largest decline in series history.
As I said to BBC on Friday night, tariffs are not going to do what at least we were talking about Trump saying he wants them to do.
March 16, 2025 at 5:32 PM
As I said to BBC on Friday night, tariffs are not going to do what at least we were talking about Trump saying he wants them to do.
We have a new tracker and analysis looking at work permits - an early indicator of how immigration policy is affecting labor supply. So, labor supply is still being pushed up by prior immigration.
Analysis: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Tracker: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
Analysis: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Tracker: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
March 13, 2025 at 3:51 PM
We have a new tracker and analysis looking at work permits - an early indicator of how immigration policy is affecting labor supply. So, labor supply is still being pushed up by prior immigration.
Analysis: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Tracker: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
Analysis: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Tracker: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...
Oh, tariffs. Significant tariffs, just the threat alone, create chaos in trade. Tariffs increase prices, reduce employment, and -- as we've seen today with Canada, China, AND Mexico announcing retaliatory tariffs -- beget more chaos.
March 4, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Oh, tariffs. Significant tariffs, just the threat alone, create chaos in trade. Tariffs increase prices, reduce employment, and -- as we've seen today with Canada, China, AND Mexico announcing retaliatory tariffs -- beget more chaos.
Musk & Lutnick misunderstand why GDP includes govt spending. Still, if not paying govt bills & firing workers causes a recession, it won’t be simple math of less G but a resulting drop in C & I. I guess they can also remove those from GDP. (But, recessions affect lives regardless of measured GDP.)
March 2, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Musk & Lutnick misunderstand why GDP includes govt spending. Still, if not paying govt bills & firing workers causes a recession, it won’t be simple math of less G but a resulting drop in C & I. I guess they can also remove those from GDP. (But, recessions affect lives regardless of measured GDP.)
Weakness in US-born emp was revised away (less than I thought, but still). Here are 12 & 24 month changes (data NSA). Data aren't revised back, but Jan 2023 likely isn't affected much by that. In unrevised 2024 data, US born emp is down. Between Jan 2023 and Jan 2025, US born emp now up.
February 7, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Weakness in US-born emp was revised away (less than I thought, but still). Here are 12 & 24 month changes (data NSA). Data aren't revised back, but Jan 2023 likely isn't affected much by that. In unrevised 2024 data, US born emp is down. Between Jan 2023 and Jan 2025, US born emp now up.
As @jedkolko.bsky.social predicted, incorporating the new population controls has only a small effect on rates/shares in the recent data.
February 7, 2025 at 1:52 PM
As @jedkolko.bsky.social predicted, incorporating the new population controls has only a small effect on rates/shares in the recent data.
A very exciting change from BLS. They will produce time-consistent research series on total employed and total labor force back to April 2020.
February 7, 2025 at 1:43 PM
A very exciting change from BLS. They will produce time-consistent research series on total employed and total labor force back to April 2020.