Ruo Shui
@ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social
Pinned
Ruo Shui
@ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social
· Jul 1
The Loss of an Objective Reality
trend: chaos dominance and wealth gap + AI/GLP-1
ruoshui.substack.com
The Loss of an Objective Reality
Reposted by Ruo Shui
Births + Immigration - Retirees - Deaths = Labor force growth.
Current status:
Births - 📉
immigration - 🔻
retirees - ↗️
Life expectancy - ↘️
Without immigrants we have a negative growth rate thru 2040
Another banger from the San Francisco Fed: www.frbsf.org/research-and...
Current status:
Births - 📉
immigration - 🔻
retirees - ↗️
Life expectancy - ↘️
Without immigrants we have a negative growth rate thru 2040
Another banger from the San Francisco Fed: www.frbsf.org/research-and...
November 20, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Births + Immigration - Retirees - Deaths = Labor force growth.
Current status:
Births - 📉
immigration - 🔻
retirees - ↗️
Life expectancy - ↘️
Without immigrants we have a negative growth rate thru 2040
Another banger from the San Francisco Fed: www.frbsf.org/research-and...
Current status:
Births - 📉
immigration - 🔻
retirees - ↗️
Life expectancy - ↘️
Without immigrants we have a negative growth rate thru 2040
Another banger from the San Francisco Fed: www.frbsf.org/research-and...
Reposted by Ruo Shui
There's a new bipartisan Section 230 reform bill, and it uses a tactic that's very similar to KOSA in hopes of holding social media platforms responsible for their recommendation algorithms. www.theverge.com/policy/82405...
Lawmakers want to let users sue over harmful social media algorithms
Section 230 is facing a new kind of attack.
www.theverge.com
November 19, 2025 at 4:50 PM
There's a new bipartisan Section 230 reform bill, and it uses a tactic that's very similar to KOSA in hopes of holding social media platforms responsible for their recommendation algorithms. www.theverge.com/policy/82405...
Reposted by Ruo Shui
2) "Low-fire" is a diff story. Layoffs & discharges are still a touch below pre-pandemic, but low-fire is most obvious in construction, retail, real estate, accommod. & food services.
While other industries like information and prof & biz services have layoff rates near pre-pandemic levels.
While other industries like information and prof & biz services have layoff rates near pre-pandemic levels.
November 19, 2025 at 4:31 PM
2) "Low-fire" is a diff story. Layoffs & discharges are still a touch below pre-pandemic, but low-fire is most obvious in construction, retail, real estate, accommod. & food services.
While other industries like information and prof & biz services have layoff rates near pre-pandemic levels.
While other industries like information and prof & biz services have layoff rates near pre-pandemic levels.
save some for earnings
sideeyeing the tinfoil hat since MBS and Jensen are in the same zip code
half-convinced there's a vol trader aware of opex windows in the admin
November 19, 2025 at 4:14 PM
save some for earnings
Reposted by Ruo Shui
The Carlyle Group took its name from the old New York hotel where its founders held their meetings
The Blue Owl took its name from the tavern where Hobbits hid out from the Nazgûl and eventually met Aragorn.
The Blue Owl took its name from the tavern where Hobbits hid out from the Nazgûl and eventually met Aragorn.
November 19, 2025 at 3:47 PM
The Carlyle Group took its name from the old New York hotel where its founders held their meetings
The Blue Owl took its name from the tavern where Hobbits hid out from the Nazgûl and eventually met Aragorn.
The Blue Owl took its name from the tavern where Hobbits hid out from the Nazgûl and eventually met Aragorn.
there's going to be basically infinite slop
good luck to online surveys
good luck to online surveys
We’re watching a shift where AI simulates the cohesion and reinforcement that used to require an entire online community. A single person can now build a complete parallel reality with nothing more than a prompt window. Which seems bad.
November 19, 2025 at 3:29 PM
there's going to be basically infinite slop
good luck to online surveys
good luck to online surveys
Reposted by Ruo Shui
The clash between MAGA and then Tech "Bro-tocracy" is going to be fascinating. MAGA promised to push the pendulum back towards labour after decades of neoliberalism, whereas Musk would like to recreate the age of the Robber Barons
January 10, 2025 at 4:03 PM
The clash between MAGA and then Tech "Bro-tocracy" is going to be fascinating. MAGA promised to push the pendulum back towards labour after decades of neoliberalism, whereas Musk would like to recreate the age of the Robber Barons
Google is a better choice but gonna be hard to convince people paying attention yields aren't high because of AI and Bitcoin priorities
rotating into Saylor fund instead of bonds is an interesting choice
November 19, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Google is a better choice but gonna be hard to convince people paying attention yields aren't high because of AI and Bitcoin priorities
Reposted by Ruo Shui
It's almost like just saying the word "responsible" doesn't actually convince anyone that you're acting responsibly.
Japan’s 10-year bond yields at highest since global financial crisis on.ft.com/3M8nOCs
Japan’s 10-year bond yields at highest since global financial crisis
Bond prices fall amid concerns over the prime minister’s plan for a fiscal stimulus
on.ft.com
November 19, 2025 at 2:40 PM
It's almost like just saying the word "responsible" doesn't actually convince anyone that you're acting responsibly.
7% expected move
November 19, 2025 at 2:38 PM
7% expected move
Reposted by Ruo Shui
Investment in tech equip & software rivals the 90s in growth rates but accounted for 2/3 of all growth in H1 vs only ~15% in the late 90s. Other things going on in the 90s--broad based boom in the labor market/GDP, globalization, peace dividend, consumer optimism, labor force growth & immigration
November 19, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Investment in tech equip & software rivals the 90s in growth rates but accounted for 2/3 of all growth in H1 vs only ~15% in the late 90s. Other things going on in the 90s--broad based boom in the labor market/GDP, globalization, peace dividend, consumer optimism, labor force growth & immigration
Oklo and Siemens
Oklo and Siemens Energy Sign Binding Contract to Expedite Procurement of the Power Conversion System for Commercial Power Plant
Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) and Siemens Energy have signed a binding contract for the design and delivery of the power conversion system for Oklo’s Aurora powerhouse. The agreement authorizes Siemens Energ...
oklo.com
November 19, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Oklo and Siemens
it's been interesting watching the commentary around Dario
At best it's "we'll figure it out when we get there"
November 19, 2025 at 12:28 PM
it's been interesting watching the commentary around Dario
Reposted by Ruo Shui
It really, really does not feel like many of the people pushing AI and robotics to go as fast as possible have a good model of how it's going to go well
November 18, 2025 at 8:44 PM
It really, really does not feel like many of the people pushing AI and robotics to go as fast as possible have a good model of how it's going to go well
the Palantir ad open makes this even better tbh
THE POLITICS OF AI ARE ABOUT TO EXPLODE
We talk with @esaagar.bsky.social about how big tech may soon find itself friendless in DC, as basically all sides of the political spectrum are setting up to oppose AI in some way podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
We talk with @esaagar.bsky.social about how big tech may soon find itself friendless in DC, as basically all sides of the political spectrum are setting up to oppose AI in some way podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Politics of AI Are About to Explode
Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 11/19/2025 · 45m
podcasts.apple.com
November 19, 2025 at 12:21 PM
the Palantir ad open makes this even better tbh
doesn't seem like saying OpenAI helped
Target cuts profit outlook as shoppers look for deals, make fewer store trips
Target is gearing up for the holidays and trying to snap an approximately four-year sales slump.
www.cnbc.com
November 19, 2025 at 12:10 PM
doesn't seem like saying OpenAI helped
the question some people skip over is where is the 10yr on Earth-2
I know everyone is saying AI is doing this but I think it's the entire economy sucking shit that's doing this and they're just using AI as an excuse.
learn to code, they said nymag.com/intelligence...
November 18, 2025 at 5:01 PM
the question some people skip over is where is the 10yr on Earth-2
Reposted by Ruo Shui
The ultimate unlock... Gemini 3 + Gemini CLI has arrived 🚀🚀🚀
Now to avoid melting too many TPUs we're going to be iteratively rolling out the support (it's quite epic). See blog post for more details: developers.googleblog.com/en/5-things-...
#GeminiCLI #Gemini3 #OSS #Gemini
See it in action 👇
Now to avoid melting too many TPUs we're going to be iteratively rolling out the support (it's quite epic). See blog post for more details: developers.googleblog.com/en/5-things-...
#GeminiCLI #Gemini3 #OSS #Gemini
See it in action 👇
November 18, 2025 at 4:18 PM
The ultimate unlock... Gemini 3 + Gemini CLI has arrived 🚀🚀🚀
Now to avoid melting too many TPUs we're going to be iteratively rolling out the support (it's quite epic). See blog post for more details: developers.googleblog.com/en/5-things-...
#GeminiCLI #Gemini3 #OSS #Gemini
See it in action 👇
Now to avoid melting too many TPUs we're going to be iteratively rolling out the support (it's quite epic). See blog post for more details: developers.googleblog.com/en/5-things-...
#GeminiCLI #Gemini3 #OSS #Gemini
See it in action 👇
still struggling in the naming department
Google releases Antigravity
Google releases Antigravity
November 18, 2025 at 4:26 PM
still struggling in the naming department
Google releases Antigravity
Google releases Antigravity
rotating into Saylor fund instead of bonds is an interesting choice
November 18, 2025 at 4:11 PM
rotating into Saylor fund instead of bonds is an interesting choice
"Volatility moves from markets to society"
3. This isn’t economics; it’s evolutionary biology. Elite conservative capture freezes institutional evolution. Policy becomes defensive, not adaptive. As institutions stagnate, social/institutional trust erodes, politics polarizes, and legitimacy declines. Volatility moves from markets to society.
November 18, 2025 at 4:02 PM
"Volatility moves from markets to society"