Tobias Harris
@tobiasharris.bsky.social
Japanese politics analyst; author of The Iconoclast: Shinzō Abe and the New Japan; Chicago-born Cubs fan now living in DC; marathoner; RHP + IF ⚾
Substack: Observingjapan.substack.com.
Business: www.japanforesight.com
Substack: Observingjapan.substack.com.
Business: www.japanforesight.com
Pinned
Takaichi's election gambit
Sixteen desultory thoughts on what to watch as the campaign unfolds
open.substack.com
Prime Minister Takaichi said she will dissolve the lower house on 23 January and hold a general election on 8 February. Here are sixteen thoughts and questions on what she hopes to achieve, the risks she faces, and why the election might not change all that much.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Chat, is it good if the PM has to set aside time to campaign for a guy who has won every election since 2003, most recently by nine points in 2024, in a year that should be easy for LDP incumbents?
Takaichi trying to rescue Eto Taku, better known for boasting about not having to pay for rice.
February 7, 2026 at 3:10 AM
Chat, is it good if the PM has to set aside time to campaign for a guy who has won every election since 2003, most recently by nine points in 2024, in a year that should be easy for LDP incumbents?
FREE FOR ALL READERS: Japan is pummeled by snow and plunging temperatures as the campaign enters its final day. Candidates support higher defense spending but there is little consensus on how to fund it. Plus, politicians react to Trump’s endorsement of Takaichi.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
The final stretch | Japan Daily Briefing
Candidates and voters brace for winter storms as the campaign heads into its final day
open.substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 2:25 AM
FREE FOR ALL READERS: Japan is pummeled by snow and plunging temperatures as the campaign enters its final day. Candidates support higher defense spending but there is little consensus on how to fund it. Plus, politicians react to Trump’s endorsement of Takaichi.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Takaichi trying to rescue Eto Taku, better known for boasting about not having to pay for rice.
February 7, 2026 at 2:02 AM
Takaichi trying to rescue Eto Taku, better known for boasting about not having to pay for rice.
This short video of Chudo co-leader Saito Tetsuo getting bopped with stuffed animals is pretty endearing actually.
February 7, 2026 at 1:35 AM
This short video of Chudo co-leader Saito Tetsuo getting bopped with stuffed animals is pretty endearing actually.
This is the most irritating Japanese election campaign I've ever covered. And such small portions too.
February 6, 2026 at 11:37 PM
This is the most irritating Japanese election campaign I've ever covered. And such small portions too.
It's weird to think that just over a decade ago Japan still banned online campaigning. Anyway, welcome to the age of political deepfakes.
mainichi.jp/articles/202...
mainichi.jp/articles/202...
ファクトチェック：高市首相演説の観衆写真、本物?フェイク? AIの誤判断が混乱助長 | 毎日新聞
8日投開票の衆院選で高市早苗首相が福岡市の公園で街頭演説した際、多数の聴衆が写っている写真を巡ってSNS上で「フェイクだ」「本物だ」と虚実を争う投稿が飛び交った。実際に会場は多くの聴衆で埋まったが、人工知能（AI）が偽画像の可能性を指摘したことで混乱に拍車をかけることになった。
mainichi.jp
February 6, 2026 at 11:00 PM
It's weird to think that just over a decade ago Japan still banned online campaigning. Anyway, welcome to the age of political deepfakes.
mainichi.jp/articles/202...
mainichi.jp/articles/202...
I made a quick little map of where the most closely contested races from 2024 were.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q7ka8/1/
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q7ka8/1/
Japan's electoral battlegrounds
Where the most closely contested constituencies -- decided by fewer than ten percentage points in 2024 -- are concentrated
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
February 6, 2026 at 8:44 PM
I made a quick little map of where the most closely contested races from 2024 were.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q7ka8/1/
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Q7ka8/1/
My map for Sunday, drawing from polls, analysis of past elections, reporting, and just gut instinct. I might be a little bearish on the sheer scale of the LDP's victory -- I don't think the party will come close to 300 seats.
February 6, 2026 at 7:51 PM
My map for Sunday, drawing from polls, analysis of past elections, reporting, and just gut instinct. I might be a little bearish on the sheer scale of the LDP's victory -- I don't think the party will come close to 300 seats.
Honestly I don't think this matters in the slightest but also conveniently timed when it was already clear that the LDP is poised for a big victory. Little risk that he'll look like a loser and he can boast that his endorsement mattered.
February 6, 2026 at 1:53 PM
Honestly I don't think this matters in the slightest but also conveniently timed when it was already clear that the LDP is poised for a big victory. Little risk that he'll look like a loser and he can boast that his endorsement mattered.
This is gated but flagging it if there's interest. I thought it was a great conversation.
open.spotify.com/episode/6TEO...
open.spotify.com/episode/6TEO...
Spotify – Web Player
open.spotify.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:30 PM
This is gated but flagging it if there's interest. I thought it was a great conversation.
open.spotify.com/episode/6TEO...
open.spotify.com/episode/6TEO...
What even is this...
February 6, 2026 at 4:10 AM
What even is this...
The LDP and Ishin are discussing a schedule for the ordinary session; a new budget will certainly not pass before 31 March. Meanwhile, an analysis of posts on X shows that Sanseito’s footprint is smaller relative to 2025 and the LDP’s is substantially larger.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Ruling parties look ahead to Diet session | Japan Daily Briefing
The LDP and Ishin no Kai are already laying plans for the ordinary session
open.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 4:09 AM
The LDP and Ishin are discussing a schedule for the ordinary session; a new budget will certainly not pass before 31 March. Meanwhile, an analysis of posts on X shows that Sanseito’s footprint is smaller relative to 2025 and the LDP’s is substantially larger.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Me reading this article
February 5, 2026 at 1:05 AM
Me reading this article
Reposted by Tobias Harris
I'm happy to be quoted in this long read from the @financialtimes.com but in general it's a great overview of the tension between Takaichi's popularity and what's waiting when the campaign is over.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Can Sanae Takaichi govern Japan on star power alone?
The new prime minister has revived the LDP, which had looked as if it might collapse. But if she wins this week’s elections, she will face harsh realities
giftarticle.ft.com
February 4, 2026 at 3:45 AM
I'm happy to be quoted in this long read from the @financialtimes.com but in general it's a great overview of the tension between Takaichi's popularity and what's waiting when the campaign is over.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
I'm happy to be quoted in this long read from the @financialtimes.com but in general it's a great overview of the tension between Takaichi's popularity and what's waiting when the campaign is over.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Can Sanae Takaichi govern Japan on star power alone?
The new prime minister has revived the LDP, which had looked as if it might collapse. But if she wins this week’s elections, she will face harsh realities
giftarticle.ft.com
February 4, 2026 at 3:45 AM
I'm happy to be quoted in this long read from the @financialtimes.com but in general it's a great overview of the tension between Takaichi's popularity and what's waiting when the campaign is over.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Tobias Harris
Now *this* is interesting. In a campaign short Nagashima Akihisa (LDP) lists the United States as a challenge alongside China and Russia. ("To the east there is Trump...a United States that can no longer be relied on as before")
www.facebook.com/share/v/17aT...
www.facebook.com/share/v/17aT...
Redirecting...
www.facebook.com
February 3, 2026 at 9:20 PM
Now *this* is interesting. In a campaign short Nagashima Akihisa (LDP) lists the United States as a challenge alongside China and Russia. ("To the east there is Trump...a United States that can no longer be relied on as before")
www.facebook.com/share/v/17aT...
www.facebook.com/share/v/17aT...
Reposted by Tobias Harris
Candidate surveys provide insight into the divisions between — and within — parties. The CRA is scrambling to avoid disaster on Sunday. And Takaichi offered some revealing remarks on fiscal policy.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
What the candidates believe | Japan Daily Briefing
Surveys point to several major divides among -- and within -- the parties
open.substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 8:36 PM
Candidate surveys provide insight into the divisions between — and within — parties. The CRA is scrambling to avoid disaster on Sunday. And Takaichi offered some revealing remarks on fiscal policy.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Now *this* is interesting. In a campaign short Nagashima Akihisa (LDP) lists the United States as a challenge alongside China and Russia. ("To the east there is Trump...a United States that can no longer be relied on as before")
www.facebook.com/share/v/17aT...
www.facebook.com/share/v/17aT...
Redirecting...
www.facebook.com
February 3, 2026 at 9:20 PM
Now *this* is interesting. In a campaign short Nagashima Akihisa (LDP) lists the United States as a challenge alongside China and Russia. ("To the east there is Trump...a United States that can no longer be relied on as before")
www.facebook.com/share/v/17aT...
www.facebook.com/share/v/17aT...
Candidate surveys provide insight into the divisions between — and within — parties. The CRA is scrambling to avoid disaster on Sunday. And Takaichi offered some revealing remarks on fiscal policy.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
What the candidates believe | Japan Daily Briefing
Surveys point to several major divides among -- and within -- the parties
open.substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 8:36 PM
Candidate surveys provide insight into the divisions between — and within — parties. The CRA is scrambling to avoid disaster on Sunday. And Takaichi offered some revealing remarks on fiscal policy.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Reposted by Tobias Harris
"It's like Lenin said, you look for the person who will benefit… and, uh, uh, you know… You know, you'll uh, uh—well, you know what I'm trying to say…"
www.unpopularfront.news/p/magas-peop...
www.unpopularfront.news/p/magas-peop...
MAGA's "People's Capitalism"
An Alliance of Bourgeoisie and Mob
www.unpopularfront.news
February 3, 2026 at 1:20 PM
"It's like Lenin said, you look for the person who will benefit… and, uh, uh, you know… You know, you'll uh, uh—well, you know what I'm trying to say…"
www.unpopularfront.news/p/magas-peop...
www.unpopularfront.news/p/magas-peop...
Reposted by Tobias Harris
FREE FOR ALL READERS: A new poll from Asahi suggests that a landslide victory for the LDP could be coming. Meanwhile, Takaichi stirs up controversy on the yen, and takes a break from campaigning to meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Foreshocks | Japan Daily Briefing
Everything is breaking in Takaichi's favor
open.substack.com
February 2, 2026 at 2:15 AM
FREE FOR ALL READERS: A new poll from Asahi suggests that a landslide victory for the LDP could be coming. Meanwhile, Takaichi stirs up controversy on the yen, and takes a break from campaigning to meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
FREE FOR ALL READERS: A new poll from Asahi suggests that a landslide victory for the LDP could be coming. Meanwhile, Takaichi stirs up controversy on the yen, and takes a break from campaigning to meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Foreshocks | Japan Daily Briefing
Everything is breaking in Takaichi's favor
open.substack.com
February 2, 2026 at 2:15 AM
FREE FOR ALL READERS: A new poll from Asahi suggests that a landslide victory for the LDP could be coming. Meanwhile, Takaichi stirs up controversy on the yen, and takes a break from campaigning to meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
I accidentally grabbed biscuit flour instead of the similarly packaged pizza flour so when I realized my mistake I turned my dough into a biscuit focaccia thing that might be the tastiest bread I've ever baked.
February 1, 2026 at 11:24 PM
I accidentally grabbed biscuit flour instead of the similarly packaged pizza flour so when I realized my mistake I turned my dough into a biscuit focaccia thing that might be the tastiest bread I've ever baked.
Kindle version of @jwomack.bsky.social's "Random Acts of Senseless Violence" is on sale in case reality isn't grim enough.
www.amazon.com/dp/B008V460XS
www.amazon.com/dp/B008V460XS
Random Acts of Senseless Violence
Random Acts of Senseless Violence - Kindle edition by Womack, Jack. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading Random Acts of Senseless Violence.
www.amazon.com
February 1, 2026 at 4:50 PM
Kindle version of @jwomack.bsky.social's "Random Acts of Senseless Violence" is on sale in case reality isn't grim enough.
www.amazon.com/dp/B008V460XS
www.amazon.com/dp/B008V460XS
Big "FDR having people look at world maps while he uses a fireside chat to explain the war" energy.
www.vcdh.virginia.edu/solguide/VUS...
www.vcdh.virginia.edu/solguide/VUS...
January 31, 2026 at 9:32 PM
Big "FDR having people look at world maps while he uses a fireside chat to explain the war" energy.
www.vcdh.virginia.edu/solguide/VUS...
www.vcdh.virginia.edu/solguide/VUS...