Tobias Harris
@tobiasharris.bsky.social
Japanese politics analyst; author of The Iconoclast: Shinzō Abe and the New Japan; Chicago-born Cubs fan now living in DC; marathoner; RHP + IF ⚾
Substack: Observingjapan.substack.com.
Business: www.japanforesight.com
Substack: Observingjapan.substack.com.
Business: www.japanforesight.com
Pinned
Tobias Harris
@tobiasharris.bsky.social
· Oct 10
Kōmeitō quits the coalition
A guide for the perplexed
open.substack.com
Japanese politics was rocked on Friday as the Kōmeitō announced it would leave its coalition with the LDP after twenty-six years. To understand why this happened and what it means, I wrote a guide for the perplexed.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Wagner, Der Ring des Nibelungen
It’s genuinely wild that the United States spent decades building an elaborate rules-based international order which de facto cemented its permanent status as the dominant global hegemon, sustained by ideology rather than might, and now is just blowing it all up for literally no reason
January 6, 2026 at 2:41 AM
Wagner, Der Ring des Nibelungen
Reposted by Tobias Harris
Timeline cleanse, inspired by a recent rewatch of Mad Men Season 6.
January 3, 2026 at 9:19 PM
Timeline cleanse, inspired by a recent rewatch of Mad Men Season 6.
How do you know when you're in a Century of Humiliation? Asking for a friend.
January 6, 2026 at 12:58 AM
How do you know when you're in a Century of Humiliation? Asking for a friend.
Reposted by Tobias Harris
It’s genuinely wild that the United States spent decades building an elaborate rules-based international order which de facto cemented its permanent status as the dominant global hegemon, sustained by ideology rather than might, and now is just blowing it all up for literally no reason
January 6, 2026 at 12:35 AM
It’s genuinely wild that the United States spent decades building an elaborate rules-based international order which de facto cemented its permanent status as the dominant global hegemon, sustained by ideology rather than might, and now is just blowing it all up for literally no reason
Read @billbishop.bsky.social on some of the China implications of the Venezuela attack.
open.substack.com/pub/sinocism...
open.substack.com/pub/sinocism...
China’s Venezuela Calculations; Real Estate Market Expectations; December Politburo and Democratic Life Meetings; Museum Scandal; 2026 Propaganda Tasks
This looks to have been a massive PRC intelligence and analytical failure. PRC special envoy Qiu Xiaoqi met with Maduro in Caracas just hours before the raid, and may have still been in country when i...
open.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 12:45 AM
Read @billbishop.bsky.social on some of the China implications of the Venezuela attack.
open.substack.com/pub/sinocism...
open.substack.com/pub/sinocism...
Reposted by Tobias Harris
Japan Daily Briefing resumes as Takaichi holds her New Year's press conference, discussing her budget. Meanwhile, Takaichi said little of the US attack on Venezuela, but other politicians were more critical. Also, new details about the nuclear weapons gaffe.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Open for business | Japan Daily Briefing
Japan's politics starts back up
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:49 PM
Japan Daily Briefing resumes as Takaichi holds her New Year's press conference, discussing her budget. Meanwhile, Takaichi said little of the US attack on Venezuela, but other politicians were more critical. Also, new details about the nuclear weapons gaffe.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Japan Daily Briefing resumes as Takaichi holds her New Year's press conference, discussing her budget. Meanwhile, Takaichi said little of the US attack on Venezuela, but other politicians were more critical. Also, new details about the nuclear weapons gaffe.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Open for business | Japan Daily Briefing
Japan's politics starts back up
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:49 PM
Japan Daily Briefing resumes as Takaichi holds her New Year's press conference, discussing her budget. Meanwhile, Takaichi said little of the US attack on Venezuela, but other politicians were more critical. Also, new details about the nuclear weapons gaffe.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Technically much of American history has been a project to balkanize Virginia.
January 5, 2026 at 3:12 PM
Technically much of American history has been a project to balkanize Virginia.
No doubt these subjects will be tackled with sensitivity and a light touch.
January 4, 2026 at 4:20 PM
No doubt these subjects will be tackled with sensitivity and a light touch.
Reposted by Tobias Harris
I'm free from the need to have opinions on latest developments, so I'd just note that the US op to seize Maduro and declare our sole interest is oil reinforces exactly how Beijing views to US. A reckless declining power breaking laws and norms to maintain primacy.
January 4, 2026 at 2:46 PM
I'm free from the need to have opinions on latest developments, so I'd just note that the US op to seize Maduro and declare our sole interest is oil reinforces exactly how Beijing views to US. A reckless declining power breaking laws and norms to maintain primacy.
Timeline cleanse, inspired by a recent rewatch of Mad Men Season 6.
January 3, 2026 at 9:19 PM
Timeline cleanse, inspired by a recent rewatch of Mad Men Season 6.
No war for deep substrate foliated kalkite.
January 3, 2026 at 8:14 PM
No war for deep substrate foliated kalkite.
To be clear, I know this has nothing to do with spreading democracy. I was posting this in response to some rhetoric about liberty for the Venezuelan people.
Can't wait for another lecture from the VP about how the US is no longer spreading democracy by force.
January 3, 2026 at 8:05 PM
To be clear, I know this has nothing to do with spreading democracy. I was posting this in response to some rhetoric about liberty for the Venezuelan people.
Can't wait for another lecture from the VP about how the US is no longer spreading democracy by force.
January 3, 2026 at 4:58 PM
Can't wait for another lecture from the VP about how the US is no longer spreading democracy by force.
Reposted by Tobias Harris
I’m sure to Trump this looks like strength but to everyone else calculating their security options this morning it's more confirmation that US power is capricious and the only insurance policy is a nuclear one
January 3, 2026 at 1:14 PM
I’m sure to Trump this looks like strength but to everyone else calculating their security options this morning it's more confirmation that US power is capricious and the only insurance policy is a nuclear one
I use this heuristic too. 👇🏻
honestly the only heuristic i use is that trump’s adhd is a strong determinant of what is going on. if he focuses attention on something the chances of it happening go up
January 3, 2026 at 12:59 PM
I use this heuristic too. 👇🏻
I read the first part of this book in Japanese and was floored. When I saw it had been translated I immediately wanted to read it and review at length. Stay tuned for more...
January 2, 2026 at 11:08 PM
I read the first part of this book in Japanese and was floored. When I saw it had been translated I immediately wanted to read it and review at length. Stay tuned for more...
Not to get all "back in my day" but I feel like when I was a kid there was a constant stream of competently made if forgettable movies suitable for kids but that kind of movie basically doesn't exist anymore.
January 2, 2026 at 4:58 PM
Not to get all "back in my day" but I feel like when I was a kid there was a constant stream of competently made if forgettable movies suitable for kids but that kind of movie basically doesn't exist anymore.
Burninating into 2026.
January 1, 2026 at 8:29 PM
Burninating into 2026.
あけおめ Japan friends! 🎉
December 31, 2025 at 3:00 PM
あけおめ Japan friends! 🎉
Good excuse to endorse Tatiana Linkhoeva's Revolution goes East, which I'm nearly finished reading.
Russia famously has never been a player in Asian affairs.
December 31, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Good excuse to endorse Tatiana Linkhoeva's Revolution goes East, which I'm nearly finished reading.
The problem with this argument is that investors have had no problem channeling money into China for decades. Is political risk in the United States really greater than in the PRC?
Your fundamental error is this: investment requires trust.
No one trusts the USA any more. Not the WH, not the FDA, not the CDC, not the SEC, not the Fed. Nothing American is trusted anymore.
No one trusts the USA any more. Not the WH, not the FDA, not the CDC, not the SEC, not the Fed. Nothing American is trusted anymore.
December 31, 2025 at 2:26 AM
The problem with this argument is that investors have had no problem channeling money into China for decades. Is political risk in the United States really greater than in the PRC?
The Missouri was well worth the visit and was surprised to find basically a miniature version of the Hiroshima Peace Museum below decks.
December 30, 2025 at 3:34 AM
The Missouri was well worth the visit and was surprised to find basically a miniature version of the Hiroshima Peace Museum below decks.
Brave new world. asia.nikkei.com/business/aut...
China to top global auto sales in 2025, ending Japan's 20-plus year run
BYD, others export more low-priced EVs amid cutthroat competition at home
asia.nikkei.com
December 29, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Brave new world. asia.nikkei.com/business/aut...