Beau
@runningsignal.com
Backyard economist. Macro/micro coverage of the economy, trade, and technology.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
Pinned
Beau
@runningsignal.com
· Dec 13
Water Always Finds a Way
Why trade is capitalism's substrate and damming it doesn't work
runningsignal.beehiiv.com
Trade isn't a policy choice. It's the substrate capitalism runs on. You can dam water temporarily, but it finds new channels. New piece on why protectionism runs counter to capitalism.
New piece:
Water Always Finds a Way
runningsignal.beehiiv.com/p/water-alwa...
New piece:
Water Always Finds a Way
runningsignal.beehiiv.com/p/water-alwa...
The MAHA movement started with empowered parents hell bent on standing up for what they believe in but it’s clear we’ll need to invest more in the CPS.
February 20, 2026 at 2:17 AM
The MAHA movement started with empowered parents hell bent on standing up for what they believe in but it’s clear we’ll need to invest more in the CPS.
I’m going long on the history channel
February 20, 2026 at 2:01 AM
I’m going long on the history channel
People don’t believe in aliens because the ego can’t share a stage so it turned the stars into spotlights.
February 20, 2026 at 1:46 AM
People don’t believe in aliens because the ego can’t share a stage so it turned the stars into spotlights.
Reposted by Beau
Sometimes Granpa just says things. Or maybe not? Who knows.
*TRUMP SAYS US TO BEGIN RELEASING FILES RELATING TO ALIENS, UFOS
*TRUMP SAYS US TO BEGIN RELEASING FILES RELATING TO ALIENS, UFOS
February 20, 2026 at 1:17 AM
Sometimes Granpa just says things. Or maybe not? Who knows.
*TRUMP SAYS US TO BEGIN RELEASING FILES RELATING TO ALIENS, UFOS
*TRUMP SAYS US TO BEGIN RELEASING FILES RELATING TO ALIENS, UFOS
The war hanging in the balance over a nerd with a weather balloon is right up my alley.
Brendan Fraser Eisenhower movie, Brendan Fraser Eisenhower movie, Brendan Fraser Eisenhower movie, Brendan Fraser Eisenhower movie, Brendan Fraser Eisenhower movie, Brendan Fraser Eisenhower movie, Brendan Fraser Eisenhower movie, Brendan Fraser Eisenhower movie, Brendan Fraser Eisenhower movie, Br-
PRESSURE Official Trailer (2026) Brendan Fraser
YouTube video by ONE Media
www.youtube.com
February 20, 2026 at 1:11 AM
The war hanging in the balance over a nerd with a weather balloon is right up my alley.
Reposted by Beau
it's the way he says COVID as "covus"
February 20, 2026 at 12:53 AM
it's the way he says COVID as "covus"
You’re not going to evolve a whole tech stack in Claude Code. You can’t. You can absolutely put one together with it. You can start ideas and share things in languages and formatting other people understand.
Using LLMs as translators from tech to pitch and vice versa is where the wheels grease.
Using LLMs as translators from tech to pitch and vice versa is where the wheels grease.
February 20, 2026 at 12:55 AM
You’re not going to evolve a whole tech stack in Claude Code. You can’t. You can absolutely put one together with it. You can start ideas and share things in languages and formatting other people understand.
Using LLMs as translators from tech to pitch and vice versa is where the wheels grease.
Using LLMs as translators from tech to pitch and vice versa is where the wheels grease.
In my personal experience using ai there’s certainly a case where you feel “someone else could be doing this” but when you’re not at a larger enterprise you don’t have the choice anyway so you’ll take the extra hand.
You’re trying to get to growth where you can fill that hole more solidly.
You’re trying to get to growth where you can fill that hole more solidly.
February 20, 2026 at 12:49 AM
In my personal experience using ai there’s certainly a case where you feel “someone else could be doing this” but when you’re not at a larger enterprise you don’t have the choice anyway so you’ll take the extra hand.
You’re trying to get to growth where you can fill that hole more solidly.
You’re trying to get to growth where you can fill that hole more solidly.
People moved from California to Texas to escape these. At some point we’ll all realize what’s going on with the planet.
Another day of powerful winds and especially dry conditions had emergency officials in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle bracing for more wildfires.
Powerful Winds and Wildfires Have the Southern Plains on Edge
A combustible mix of weather ingredients has sparked worries about new fires in Oklahoma and Texas.
nyti.ms
February 19, 2026 at 11:03 PM
People moved from California to Texas to escape these. At some point we’ll all realize what’s going on with the planet.
Reposted by Beau
The golden age of private credit. Discuss.
February 19, 2026 at 10:10 PM
The golden age of private credit. Discuss.
Looks like a donut going past my New Year’s resolution
February 19, 2026 at 9:17 PM
Looks like a donut going past my New Year’s resolution
Something hard for smarter people to understand is that most of the time they’re arguing against feelings. Facts don’t matter unless the framing makes them feel different.
February 19, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Something hard for smarter people to understand is that most of the time they’re arguing against feelings. Facts don’t matter unless the framing makes them feel different.
Ask them how this feeling changes if 51% of their paychecks went to taxes. How much is that?
February 19, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Ask them how this feeling changes if 51% of their paychecks went to taxes. How much is that?
The good news is I’ve been building and teaching how to navigate this type of freight cycle for the last year and those fruits are ripening as the industrial sector wakes back up.
Very welcome after 4 years in the tank. Longest downside in my career.
Very welcome after 4 years in the tank. Longest downside in my career.
February 19, 2026 at 1:15 PM
The good news is I’ve been building and teaching how to navigate this type of freight cycle for the last year and those fruits are ripening as the industrial sector wakes back up.
Very welcome after 4 years in the tank. Longest downside in my career.
Very welcome after 4 years in the tank. Longest downside in my career.
Reposted by Beau
"excuse me sir, there must be some mistake- i voted to create the camps, not live in the zone of interest" is like every trump voter
“my children might see the children I voted to put in shackles, how shall they grow up”
February 19, 2026 at 5:31 AM
"excuse me sir, there must be some mistake- i voted to create the camps, not live in the zone of interest" is like every trump voter
There are decades long ramifications coming from this presidency but the economy is just too big and too dynamic to be pushed completely off course in one year’s worth of lunacy.
The longer it goes on the worse the future track but many are going to get gobsmacked by the idea of a good econ in ‘26
The longer it goes on the worse the future track but many are going to get gobsmacked by the idea of a good econ in ‘26
February 19, 2026 at 1:03 PM
There are decades long ramifications coming from this presidency but the economy is just too big and too dynamic to be pushed completely off course in one year’s worth of lunacy.
The longer it goes on the worse the future track but many are going to get gobsmacked by the idea of a good econ in ‘26
The longer it goes on the worse the future track but many are going to get gobsmacked by the idea of a good econ in ‘26
Guys I think we’re coming out of the ditch versus crashing into one.
US Private Sector Balance Sheets in Excellent Shape
Torsten at Apollo
Torsten at Apollo
February 19, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Guys I think we’re coming out of the ditch versus crashing into one.
It’s utterly insane how nervous we all get crossing out of shopping areas or side streets. Not that we’ll get hit, but we’re holding up the person in the car and are in the right of way.
February 19, 2026 at 12:58 PM
It’s utterly insane how nervous we all get crossing out of shopping areas or side streets. Not that we’ll get hit, but we’re holding up the person in the car and are in the right of way.
Now imagine how the actual little girls tried to make a defense against him. Rot in hell, sweet prince.
My sources tell me that Andrew is expected to go with the "I'm just a little guy, also it's my birthday, I'm a little birthday boy" defence
Arrested on his birthday lol
February 19, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Now imagine how the actual little girls tried to make a defense against him. Rot in hell, sweet prince.
Yiyiiii
Year/year trend in industrial production continued to improve in January, moving up to +2.28%. #EconSky
February 19, 2026 at 11:59 AM
Yiyiiii
Like we have floors to give support, we should also make ceilings so after some obscene # every extra dollar over goes straight to taxes.
Next, you have to pay 10:1 in taxes to campaign contributions. If you pay more to SPACs than the government you have to pay 10x your contributions in penalty.
Next, you have to pay 10:1 in taxes to campaign contributions. If you pay more to SPACs than the government you have to pay 10x your contributions in penalty.
February 19, 2026 at 11:54 AM
Like we have floors to give support, we should also make ceilings so after some obscene # every extra dollar over goes straight to taxes.
Next, you have to pay 10:1 in taxes to campaign contributions. If you pay more to SPACs than the government you have to pay 10x your contributions in penalty.
Next, you have to pay 10:1 in taxes to campaign contributions. If you pay more to SPACs than the government you have to pay 10x your contributions in penalty.
Case in point from Krugman’s latest piece. It opens doors to buy things you otherwise couldn’t with less disparity.
February 19, 2026 at 11:31 AM
Case in point from Krugman’s latest piece. It opens doors to buy things you otherwise couldn’t with less disparity.
Reposted by Beau
A Pretty Pretty Good US Economy
Us macro data nerds got a pile of second-tier hard data on the US economy over the last couple days and pretty much everything points to an improving trajectory to wrap up ‘25 and kick off ‘26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/a-pretty-p...
Us macro data nerds got a pile of second-tier hard data on the US economy over the last couple days and pretty much everything points to an improving trajectory to wrap up ‘25 and kick off ‘26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/a-pretty-p...
February 19, 2026 at 10:55 AM
A Pretty Pretty Good US Economy
Us macro data nerds got a pile of second-tier hard data on the US economy over the last couple days and pretty much everything points to an improving trajectory to wrap up ‘25 and kick off ‘26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/a-pretty-p...
Us macro data nerds got a pile of second-tier hard data on the US economy over the last couple days and pretty much everything points to an improving trajectory to wrap up ‘25 and kick off ‘26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/a-pretty-p...