Bob Elliott
@bobeunlimited.bsky.social
CIO @ Unlimited | Fmr Bridgewater IC | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit (or is it #finsky?) | Comments are not investment advice
Fall Spending Cools After Summer Surge
The latest private sector data shows household spending has slowed back to a pace more in line with continued soft income growth, suggesting disappointment ahead when the government finally comes.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
The latest private sector data shows household spending has slowed back to a pace more in line with continued soft income growth, suggesting disappointment ahead when the government finally comes.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
November 17, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Fall Spending Cools After Summer Surge
The latest private sector data shows household spending has slowed back to a pace more in line with continued soft income growth, suggesting disappointment ahead when the government finally comes.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
The latest private sector data shows household spending has slowed back to a pace more in line with continued soft income growth, suggesting disappointment ahead when the government finally comes.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Aussie yields rose sharply this week as a red hot employment report reaffirmed the strengthening economy in contrast to most of the rest of the developed world.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
November 16, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Aussie yields rose sharply this week as a red hot employment report reaffirmed the strengthening economy in contrast to most of the rest of the developed world.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
Reeves politically-driven walk back on tax hikes needed for domestic fiscal discipline may well be short lived as the gilt market immediately punished the decision. Ultimately the UK has only one path ahead - lower yields and a lower currency.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
November 16, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Reeves politically-driven walk back on tax hikes needed for domestic fiscal discipline may well be short lived as the gilt market immediately punished the decision. Ultimately the UK has only one path ahead - lower yields and a lower currency.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
Another reminder for the crypto folks that gold and "digital gold" are not the same.
November 16, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Another reminder for the crypto folks that gold and "digital gold" are not the same.
On the Excess returns pod this week we explored the simple macro question no AI techno optimist can answer well: "who will replace the spending if AI results in layoffs?"
Great to catch up Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand:
youtu.be/ygF4Nv01Thk?...
Great to catch up Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand:
youtu.be/ygF4Nv01Thk?...
$1 Trillion AI Bet. $10 Billion in Profits | Bob Elliott on the AI Income That Isn’t Coming
In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the…
youtu.be
November 16, 2025 at 11:06 AM
On the Excess returns pod this week we explored the simple macro question no AI techno optimist can answer well: "who will replace the spending if AI results in layoffs?"
Great to catch up Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand:
youtu.be/ygF4Nv01Thk?...
Great to catch up Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand:
youtu.be/ygF4Nv01Thk?...
I'm sorry to report that all the hot air has come out of my favorite shitcoin, now down nearly 90% from peak.
Looking for a new fave to track. Any suggestions?
Looking for a new fave to track. Any suggestions?
November 16, 2025 at 1:37 AM
I'm sorry to report that all the hot air has come out of my favorite shitcoin, now down nearly 90% from peak.
Looking for a new fave to track. Any suggestions?
Looking for a new fave to track. Any suggestions?
The renewed breath of elevated inflation will likely give pause to many Fed voters weighing the risks on both sides of the mandate. h/t @thedailyshot
November 15, 2025 at 8:15 PM
The renewed breath of elevated inflation will likely give pause to many Fed voters weighing the risks on both sides of the mandate. h/t @thedailyshot
Yen fading back toward new lows despite falling US rates as Western investors long hoped for aggressive tightening doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-bojs-h...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-bojs-h...
November 15, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Yen fading back toward new lows despite falling US rates as Western investors long hoped for aggressive tightening doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-bojs-h...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-bojs-h...
European markets pushing to new highs lately as actual earnings growth surprised very depressed expectations. Emblematic of the Eurozone sweet spot discussed a couple months ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
November 15, 2025 at 4:11 PM
European markets pushing to new highs lately as actual earnings growth surprised very depressed expectations. Emblematic of the Eurozone sweet spot discussed a couple months ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
Lots of folks wrestling with whether the Fed will slow down cuts. Tension discussed in my blog app freebie this week:
bsky.app/profile/bobe...
bsky.app/profile/bobe...
Easy Fed Hopes Faces Inflation Reality
Markets soared on the Fed’s tolerance for elevated inflation, but private data show prices still climbing. With cuts already priced in, hesitation inside the Fed risks ending the easing party early.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/easy-fed-h...
Markets soared on the Fed’s tolerance for elevated inflation, but private data show prices still climbing. With cuts already priced in, hesitation inside the Fed risks ending the easing party early.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/easy-fed-h...
November 15, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Lots of folks wrestling with whether the Fed will slow down cuts. Tension discussed in my blog app freebie this week:
bsky.app/profile/bobe...
bsky.app/profile/bobe...
BAC data suggests recent consumer demand has been subdued relative to the summer surge, particularly in goods. Given inflation is running around 3%, not a particularly strong real demand environment.
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
November 14, 2025 at 6:13 PM
BAC data suggests recent consumer demand has been subdued relative to the summer surge, particularly in goods. Given inflation is running around 3%, not a particularly strong real demand environment.
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
China’s Deepening Malaise
China’s slowdown is accelerating and yet policymakers remain unconcerned bystanders, suggesting the weakening is less a story of endemic misfortune, but instead of political intent.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/chinas-dee...
China’s slowdown is accelerating and yet policymakers remain unconcerned bystanders, suggesting the weakening is less a story of endemic misfortune, but instead of political intent.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/chinas-dee...
November 14, 2025 at 11:16 AM
China’s Deepening Malaise
China’s slowdown is accelerating and yet policymakers remain unconcerned bystanders, suggesting the weakening is less a story of endemic misfortune, but instead of political intent.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/chinas-dee...
China’s slowdown is accelerating and yet policymakers remain unconcerned bystanders, suggesting the weakening is less a story of endemic misfortune, but instead of political intent.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/chinas-dee...
Every manager spins a narrative on why their approach is better. Even Cliff Asness in this recent clip.
That's despite overwhelming evidence of no institutional manager outperformance persistence beyond random chance. AQR's strategy is no different.
youtu.be/VFb9TIHRimc?...
That's despite overwhelming evidence of no institutional manager outperformance persistence beyond random chance. AQR's strategy is no different.
youtu.be/VFb9TIHRimc?...
November 13, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Every manager spins a narrative on why their approach is better. Even Cliff Asness in this recent clip.
That's despite overwhelming evidence of no institutional manager outperformance persistence beyond random chance. AQR's strategy is no different.
youtu.be/VFb9TIHRimc?...
That's despite overwhelming evidence of no institutional manager outperformance persistence beyond random chance. AQR's strategy is no different.
youtu.be/VFb9TIHRimc?...
November 13, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The UK Adjustment Ahead
Weak growth plus coming austerity creates pressures on the BoE to cushion the building weakness and with it bring both lower rates and a weaker pound ahead.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Weak growth plus coming austerity creates pressures on the BoE to cushion the building weakness and with it bring both lower rates and a weaker pound ahead.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
November 13, 2025 at 11:10 AM
The UK Adjustment Ahead
Weak growth plus coming austerity creates pressures on the BoE to cushion the building weakness and with it bring both lower rates and a weaker pound ahead.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Weak growth plus coming austerity creates pressures on the BoE to cushion the building weakness and with it bring both lower rates and a weaker pound ahead.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Markets have been consistently too optimistic that inflation would swiftly decline to 2%, and even with that are still pricing in price growth above the Fed's target for the foreseeable future. Not my definition of well anchored.
November 12, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Markets have been consistently too optimistic that inflation would swiftly decline to 2%, and even with that are still pricing in price growth above the Fed's target for the foreseeable future. Not my definition of well anchored.
Easy Fed Hopes Faces Inflation Reality
Markets soared on the Fed’s tolerance for elevated inflation, but private data show prices still climbing. With cuts already priced in, hesitation inside the Fed risks ending the easing party early.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/easy-fed-h...
Markets soared on the Fed’s tolerance for elevated inflation, but private data show prices still climbing. With cuts already priced in, hesitation inside the Fed risks ending the easing party early.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/easy-fed-h...
November 12, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Easy Fed Hopes Faces Inflation Reality
Markets soared on the Fed’s tolerance for elevated inflation, but private data show prices still climbing. With cuts already priced in, hesitation inside the Fed risks ending the easing party early.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/easy-fed-h...
Markets soared on the Fed’s tolerance for elevated inflation, but private data show prices still climbing. With cuts already priced in, hesitation inside the Fed risks ending the easing party early.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/easy-fed-h...
Helpful view into the rough timing of the previously unreported data releases assuming the shutdown ends this Friday.
November 11, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Helpful view into the rough timing of the previously unreported data releases assuming the shutdown ends this Friday.
While we don't do direct surveying of manager positions (b/c it is too often incomplete), it is nice to see this kind of positioning analysis align with the recent inferences from our replication tech.
November 11, 2025 at 8:15 PM
While we don't do direct surveying of manager positions (b/c it is too often incomplete), it is nice to see this kind of positioning analysis align with the recent inferences from our replication tech.
The Japanification of China in one chart.
November 11, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The Japanification of China in one chart.
The Recent Bank Funding “Crisis”
The surging TGA refill briefly lifted funding rates sparking doomsday chatter. But Fed liquidity ops quickly eased stress and showed there is little systemic risk even in a tighter reserve environment.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
The surging TGA refill briefly lifted funding rates sparking doomsday chatter. But Fed liquidity ops quickly eased stress and showed there is little systemic risk even in a tighter reserve environment.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
November 11, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The Recent Bank Funding “Crisis”
The surging TGA refill briefly lifted funding rates sparking doomsday chatter. But Fed liquidity ops quickly eased stress and showed there is little systemic risk even in a tighter reserve environment.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
The surging TGA refill briefly lifted funding rates sparking doomsday chatter. But Fed liquidity ops quickly eased stress and showed there is little systemic risk even in a tighter reserve environment.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
JP made clear a couple weeks ago that while the Fed balance sheet may expand, the maturity profile is set to contract meaningfully, forcing the private sector to hold more duration ahead.
November 10, 2025 at 6:13 PM
JP made clear a couple weeks ago that while the Fed balance sheet may expand, the maturity profile is set to contract meaningfully, forcing the private sector to hold more duration ahead.
Run It Hot Meets Orthodox Policy Reality
Despite the cacophony from the meme crowd, the Fed indicated shortening their duration and the QRA suggested more coupon issuance ahead. Both moves forcing the private sector to absorb more duration.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Despite the cacophony from the meme crowd, the Fed indicated shortening their duration and the QRA suggested more coupon issuance ahead. Both moves forcing the private sector to absorb more duration.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
November 10, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Run It Hot Meets Orthodox Policy Reality
Despite the cacophony from the meme crowd, the Fed indicated shortening their duration and the QRA suggested more coupon issuance ahead. Both moves forcing the private sector to absorb more duration.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Despite the cacophony from the meme crowd, the Fed indicated shortening their duration and the QRA suggested more coupon issuance ahead. Both moves forcing the private sector to absorb more duration.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Canada with smoking hot employment report (UE rate down 0.2% with higher participation), but under the hood not quite as strong. Haven't even seen 100k full time jobs this year. Still looking pretty chilly up there across all the data:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/canadas-lo...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/canadas-lo...
November 9, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Canada with smoking hot employment report (UE rate down 0.2% with higher participation), but under the hood not quite as strong. Haven't even seen 100k full time jobs this year. Still looking pretty chilly up there across all the data:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/canadas-lo...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/canadas-lo...
BoE held steady as expected this week, but dont lose sight of the fact that the committee is still clearly tilted toward easier policy ahead despite backward looking inflation well above target, helping keep a lid on further long-end rises.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/uk-inflati...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/uk-inflati...
November 9, 2025 at 4:11 PM
BoE held steady as expected this week, but dont lose sight of the fact that the committee is still clearly tilted toward easier policy ahead despite backward looking inflation well above target, helping keep a lid on further long-end rises.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/uk-inflati...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/uk-inflati...