Bob Elliott
@bobeunlimited.bsky.social
CIO @ Unlimited | Fmr Bridgewater IC | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit (or is it #finsky?) | Comments are not investment advice
The Fragility of 2026 Growth Optimism
Nearly everyone expects strong 2026 growth on stocks up, yields down, easy fiscal and AI. But most thematic projections miss the big step down in potential growth and fading lift from these factors.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-fragil...
Nearly everyone expects strong 2026 growth on stocks up, yields down, easy fiscal and AI. But most thematic projections miss the big step down in potential growth and fading lift from these factors.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-fragil...
January 6, 2026 at 12:24 PM
The Fragility of 2026 Growth Optimism
Nearly everyone expects strong 2026 growth on stocks up, yields down, easy fiscal and AI. But most thematic projections miss the big step down in potential growth and fading lift from these factors.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-fragil...
Nearly everyone expects strong 2026 growth on stocks up, yields down, easy fiscal and AI. But most thematic projections miss the big step down in potential growth and fading lift from these factors.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-fragil...
Basically everyone thinks '26 will be a banner year for US growth.
January 5, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Basically everyone thinks '26 will be a banner year for US growth.
US policymakers face a fork in the road in '26: accept economic weakness or drive further debasement.
youtu.be/uvKyLTocjeg?...
youtu.be/uvKyLTocjeg?...
A Fork in The Road for The US Economy?
While the economic indicators signal an economic slowdown in the US, the financial markets are betting on strong growth as we wind down the 2025 trading year.
Excerpt from @markets with…
youtu.be
January 5, 2026 at 4:11 PM
US policymakers face a fork in the road in '26: accept economic weakness or drive further debasement.
youtu.be/uvKyLTocjeg?...
youtu.be/uvKyLTocjeg?...
Little US Benefit From Cheaper Oil
While US consumers get a bit more spending power, with current prices not too far away from US breakevens, hits to producer incomes from lower prices may be an even more significant drag.
While US consumers get a bit more spending power, with current prices not too far away from US breakevens, hits to producer incomes from lower prices may be an even more significant drag.
January 5, 2026 at 11:56 AM
Little US Benefit From Cheaper Oil
While US consumers get a bit more spending power, with current prices not too far away from US breakevens, hits to producer incomes from lower prices may be an even more significant drag.
While US consumers get a bit more spending power, with current prices not too far away from US breakevens, hits to producer incomes from lower prices may be an even more significant drag.
'26 marks the end of the easing cycle that provided broad support to global asset prices. For the first time in years, central banks are on net expected to tighten in the new year.
January 4, 2026 at 6:13 PM
'26 marks the end of the easing cycle that provided broad support to global asset prices. For the first time in years, central banks are on net expected to tighten in the new year.
There is a lot of hope that the OBBB will drive a substantial pop in spending in the new year. The trouble is those folks with the highest marginal propensity to spend are seeing modest benefit and facing reduced benefits across programs for the poor.
January 4, 2026 at 4:11 PM
There is a lot of hope that the OBBB will drive a substantial pop in spending in the new year. The trouble is those folks with the highest marginal propensity to spend are seeing modest benefit and facing reduced benefits across programs for the poor.
After the pre-tariff front running in 1H25, spending on software and the data center buildout has slowed considerably. So despite all the hype, it seems AI spend is likely to be a pretty marginal support to the economy in '26.
January 3, 2026 at 6:13 PM
After the pre-tariff front running in 1H25, spending on software and the data center buildout has slowed considerably. So despite all the hype, it seems AI spend is likely to be a pretty marginal support to the economy in '26.
With the combination of zero job growth, slowing wage growth per worker, and rising inflation squeezing household spending power it should be no surprise that real consumer demand waned in the last few months of '25 and will remain under pressure as we kick off the new year.
January 3, 2026 at 4:11 PM
With the combination of zero job growth, slowing wage growth per worker, and rising inflation squeezing household spending power it should be no surprise that real consumer demand waned in the last few months of '25 and will remain under pressure as we kick off the new year.
Overnight market action in gold-backed crypto and bitcoin directionally in line with previous geopolitical shocks, but pretty muted moves.
January 3, 2026 at 1:09 PM
Overnight market action in gold-backed crypto and bitcoin directionally in line with previous geopolitical shocks, but pretty muted moves.
2026 outlook free on the blog app this morning. Enjoy!
2026 Outlook Summary: A Fork In The Road
The question is will policymakers choose economic weakness or debasement in the new year?
open.substack.com
January 3, 2026 at 11:53 AM
2026 outlook free on the blog app this morning. Enjoy!
Excited to kick off the year by announcing we now have designated market makers for all our ETFs, which is an expense we incur to ensure clients of all sizes get fairer prices and improved liquidity on an ongoing basis when trading our products.
www.globenewswire.com/news-release...
www.globenewswire.com/news-release...
Unlimited ETFs to Transfer Exchange Listings to New York Stock Exchange
Unlimited ETFs to Transfer Exchange Listings to New York Stock Exchange...
www.globenewswire.com
January 2, 2026 at 8:15 PM
Excited to kick off the year by announcing we now have designated market makers for all our ETFs, which is an expense we incur to ensure clients of all sizes get fairer prices and improved liquidity on an ongoing basis when trading our products.
www.globenewswire.com/news-release...
www.globenewswire.com/news-release...
Slowing wage growth in '25 suggested underlying labor demand slowed even more rapidly than extremely constrained supply. With a pretty clear trend in place and many labor demand related indicators continuing to soften, it appears wage growth per worker will fall further in '26.
January 2, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Slowing wage growth in '25 suggested underlying labor demand slowed even more rapidly than extremely constrained supply. With a pretty clear trend in place and many labor demand related indicators continuing to soften, it appears wage growth per worker will fall further in '26.
As we kick off the new year, this is probably the most important chart for what will drive the economy. Strict immigration efforts by the new admin drove job growth to zero in 2H25, redoubled efforts to create "reverse migration" are likely to create further drag in '26.
January 2, 2026 at 4:24 PM
As we kick off the new year, this is probably the most important chart for what will drive the economy. Strict immigration efforts by the new admin drove job growth to zero in 2H25, redoubled efforts to create "reverse migration" are likely to create further drag in '26.
High Hopes For The New Year
The widespread consensus is near certain 2026 will bring goldilocks of strong growth, asset rallies and Fed complacency. High expectations that make it harder to come true in reality in markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/high-hopes...
The widespread consensus is near certain 2026 will bring goldilocks of strong growth, asset rallies and Fed complacency. High expectations that make it harder to come true in reality in markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/high-hopes...
January 2, 2026 at 11:46 AM
High Hopes For The New Year
The widespread consensus is near certain 2026 will bring goldilocks of strong growth, asset rallies and Fed complacency. High expectations that make it harder to come true in reality in markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/high-hopes...
The widespread consensus is near certain 2026 will bring goldilocks of strong growth, asset rallies and Fed complacency. High expectations that make it harder to come true in reality in markets.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/high-hopes...
Macro managers have actually generated the most consistent alpha across the major hedge fund styles (including last year!). The challenge is high fees and wide single-manager performance dispersion. Now if only there was a way to solve for those...
January 2, 2026 at 1:51 AM
Macro managers have actually generated the most consistent alpha across the major hedge fund styles (including last year!). The challenge is high fees and wide single-manager performance dispersion. Now if only there was a way to solve for those...
Simple walking may be the best habit you can pick up in '26 for better health outcomes. Cross study meta-analysis by The Lancet last year shows robust reductions in all cause mortality and other positive like improved mental health from 6-12k steps per day.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com
January 1, 2026 at 1:34 PM
Simple walking may be the best habit you can pick up in '26 for better health outcomes. Cross study meta-analysis by The Lancet last year shows robust reductions in all cause mortality and other positive like improved mental health from 6-12k steps per day.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
'25 was a good year. Counting my blessings.
*Biz AUM up ~150mln
*Launched 4 new products
*Beneficial returns for our investors
*Blog app launch with great set of subs already
*>200k following cross platforms
*Our 2nd little one coming soon
Appreciate all the support along the way!
*Biz AUM up ~150mln
*Launched 4 new products
*Beneficial returns for our investors
*Blog app launch with great set of subs already
*>200k following cross platforms
*Our 2nd little one coming soon
Appreciate all the support along the way!
December 31, 2025 at 1:42 PM
'25 was a good year. Counting my blessings.
*Biz AUM up ~150mln
*Launched 4 new products
*Beneficial returns for our investors
*Blog app launch with great set of subs already
*>200k following cross platforms
*Our 2nd little one coming soon
Appreciate all the support along the way!
*Biz AUM up ~150mln
*Launched 4 new products
*Beneficial returns for our investors
*Blog app launch with great set of subs already
*>200k following cross platforms
*Our 2nd little one coming soon
Appreciate all the support along the way!
Notable the STIR market isn't pricing much easing effort ahead when this seems like one of the most direct ways a debasement push could come in '26.
December 30, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Notable the STIR market isn't pricing much easing effort ahead when this seems like one of the most direct ways a debasement push could come in '26.
Everyone feels like a genius right now because it was good year for financial asset returns. But it is important to remember just how much debasement it took to get there.
If you are expecting strong asset returns again in '26, it's an implicit bet on further debasement ahead.
If you are expecting strong asset returns again in '26, it's an implicit bet on further debasement ahead.
December 30, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Everyone feels like a genius right now because it was good year for financial asset returns. But it is important to remember just how much debasement it took to get there.
If you are expecting strong asset returns again in '26, it's an implicit bet on further debasement ahead.
If you are expecting strong asset returns again in '26, it's an implicit bet on further debasement ahead.
Checking in on my mother's account. What a well diversified, low risk portfolio appropriate for a retiree looked like this year.
If you or a family member is of retirement age and the year looked like the purple, count your blessings, lower your risk, and get more diversified.
If you or a family member is of retirement age and the year looked like the purple, count your blessings, lower your risk, and get more diversified.
December 30, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Checking in on my mother's account. What a well diversified, low risk portfolio appropriate for a retiree looked like this year.
If you or a family member is of retirement age and the year looked like the purple, count your blessings, lower your risk, and get more diversified.
If you or a family member is of retirement age and the year looked like the purple, count your blessings, lower your risk, and get more diversified.
The last time analysts were this bullish on the equity market was at the start of last year.
December 29, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The last time analysts were this bullish on the equity market was at the start of last year.
Retail demand for silver still looks pretty subdued despite its sharp appreciation of late. 900mln in flows leading up to Christmas was elevated, but hardly suggests speculative excess at this point.
December 28, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Retail demand for silver still looks pretty subdued despite its sharp appreciation of late. 900mln in flows leading up to Christmas was elevated, but hardly suggests speculative excess at this point.
Flows into spot bitcoin ETFs turned negative in recent weeks as roughly half of all historical flows into these products are now underwater.
December 28, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Flows into spot bitcoin ETFs turned negative in recent weeks as roughly half of all historical flows into these products are now underwater.
Central banks started to pull back the quantity of gold they were buying in '25 as prices rose sharply and odds are will pull back further in '26. It makes for a gold market that is much more reliant on Western financial flows than has been the case in recent years.
December 28, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Central banks started to pull back the quantity of gold they were buying in '25 as prices rose sharply and odds are will pull back further in '26. It makes for a gold market that is much more reliant on Western financial flows than has been the case in recent years.
2025 rewarded discipline more than prediction. Policy volatility and manias consistently challenged macro fundamentals, but even with all that, a nonconsensus approach still added value. My '25 thematic calls in review, free to read on the blog app:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/2025-thema...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/2025-thema...
2025 Thematic Portfolio Review
2025 rewarded discipline more than prediction. Policy volatility and manias consistently challenged macro fundamentals, but even with all that, a nonconsensus approach still added value.
bobeunlimited.substack.com
December 27, 2025 at 1:08 PM
2025 rewarded discipline more than prediction. Policy volatility and manias consistently challenged macro fundamentals, but even with all that, a nonconsensus approach still added value. My '25 thematic calls in review, free to read on the blog app:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/2025-thema...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/2025-thema...