Bob Elliott
@bobeunlimited.bsky.social
CIO @ Unlimited | Fmr Bridgewater IC | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit (or is it #finsky?) | Comments are not investment advice
Rising goods prices driven by partial tariff flow through has offset disinflation in other categories leading to core inflation continuing to be moderately above the Fed's target. The challenge is there is likely more tariff-related price hikes to come.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
December 6, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Rising goods prices driven by partial tariff flow through has offset disinflation in other categories leading to core inflation continuing to be moderately above the Fed's target. The challenge is there is likely more tariff-related price hikes to come.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
Household demand growth has been a lot weaker in '25 than in '24 or '23. And Sept real PCE fell back to zero growth. An example of the household spending math problem with no job growth and slowing wages and higher inflation.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
December 6, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Household demand growth has been a lot weaker in '25 than in '24 or '23. And Sept real PCE fell back to zero growth. An example of the household spending math problem with no job growth and slowing wages and higher inflation.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/strong-hh-...
The most nonconensus idea I've written about lately is my blog app freebie of the week!
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Fed’s Dead Baby, Fed’s Dead
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The most nonconensus idea I've written about lately is my blog app freebie of the week!
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Nice article by Joseph Adinolfi suggesting the yen carry trade is much smaller than many doomers pitch. While folks often point to Aug '24 moves, they often don't mention US conditions sparked the moves, and the yen just rallied in line with US yields.
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
December 5, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Nice article by Joseph Adinolfi suggesting the yen carry trade is much smaller than many doomers pitch. While folks often point to Aug '24 moves, they often don't mention US conditions sparked the moves, and the yen just rallied in line with US yields.
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in...
Seems pretty clear at this point that tariff hikes have led to higher core goods prices for households.
December 5, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Seems pretty clear at this point that tariff hikes have led to higher core goods prices for households.
Had a great time on the new Building Better Portfolios pod talking through our work bringing low cost alts to all investors. But before we got there, we started with something most folks don't know about me... just remember don't judge a book by its cover...
youtu.be/h5NRE4nv_XA?...
youtu.be/h5NRE4nv_XA?...
Unlimited Access with Bob Elliott (#11)
Welcome to Episode 11 of the Building Better Portfolios Podcast, hosted by Joshua Flade and Paisley Nardini. In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott, Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds —…
youtu.be
December 5, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Had a great time on the new Building Better Portfolios pod talking through our work bringing low cost alts to all investors. But before we got there, we started with something most folks don't know about me... just remember don't judge a book by its cover...
youtu.be/h5NRE4nv_XA?...
youtu.be/h5NRE4nv_XA?...
Fed’s Dead, Baby, Fed’s Dead
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
December 5, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Fed’s Dead, Baby, Fed’s Dead
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Investors counting on a Fed pump ahead are likely to be disappointed given limited balance sheet expansion and rate cuts that are doing little to boost borrowing for the real economy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/feds-dead-...
Today we are excited to announce Unlimited's newest product expansion into venture capital!
It's an asset class with punishingly high fees and huge dispersion desperately in need of a lower-cost, more diversified solutions for investors. More to come!
unlimitedfunds.com/press-releas...
It's an asset class with punishingly high fees and huge dispersion desperately in need of a lower-cost, more diversified solutions for investors. More to come!
unlimitedfunds.com/press-releas...
Unlimited Adds Venture Capital to Its Lineup of Lower-Cost Alternatives - Unlimited Funds
NEW YORK, Dec. 4, 2025 -- Unlimited Funds, Inc. (“Unlimited”) today unveiled a fund with diversified exposure to the equity of VC-backed startups (the “Fund”) as part of its ongoing work to deliver…
unlimitedfunds.com
December 4, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Today we are excited to announce Unlimited's newest product expansion into venture capital!
It's an asset class with punishingly high fees and huge dispersion desperately in need of a lower-cost, more diversified solutions for investors. More to come!
unlimitedfunds.com/press-releas...
It's an asset class with punishingly high fees and huge dispersion desperately in need of a lower-cost, more diversified solutions for investors. More to come!
unlimitedfunds.com/press-releas...
Seems pretty clear at this point that foreign producers are not cutting their prices to pay for the tariff hikes given that import prices (measured before duties are imposed) have remained largely stable this year.
December 4, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Seems pretty clear at this point that foreign producers are not cutting their prices to pay for the tariff hikes given that import prices (measured before duties are imposed) have remained largely stable this year.
Latent Tariff Price Pressures Remain
With households now absorbing nearly all the higher costs from directly imported consumer goods, the question for ‘26 is whether biz start passing higher imported input costs on to consumers.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
With households now absorbing nearly all the higher costs from directly imported consumer goods, the question for ‘26 is whether biz start passing higher imported input costs on to consumers.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
December 4, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Latent Tariff Price Pressures Remain
With households now absorbing nearly all the higher costs from directly imported consumer goods, the question for ‘26 is whether biz start passing higher imported input costs on to consumers.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
With households now absorbing nearly all the higher costs from directly imported consumer goods, the question for ‘26 is whether biz start passing higher imported input costs on to consumers.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/latent-tar...
Great getting together with Shana Sissel recently to talk about our efforts to create lower-cost products across a range of hedge fund strategies and some of the challenges innovators face bringing alternatives to all investors.
youtu.be/dgrwW4BTQvQ?...
youtu.be/dgrwW4BTQvQ?...
Unmasking Hedge Funds: Low-Cost Alternatives & Global Macro Secrets with Bob Elliott
In this episode of What’s the Alternative, host Shana Orczyk Sissel sits down with Bob Elliott, Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds, to unpack the true potential of alternative investments for…
youtu.be
December 3, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Great getting together with Shana Sissel recently to talk about our efforts to create lower-cost products across a range of hedge fund strategies and some of the challenges innovators face bringing alternatives to all investors.
youtu.be/dgrwW4BTQvQ?...
youtu.be/dgrwW4BTQvQ?...
This is a good outcome for investor protection and the ETF industry since these products offer little value to investors and most folks can't easily understand the risks inherent in such strategies.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
SEC Halts High-Leveraged ETF Plans in Warning Over Risks
The US Securities and Exchange Commission has issued a flurry of warning letters to some of the country’s most prolific providers of high-octane exchange-traded funds, effectively blocking the…
www.bloomberg.com
December 3, 2025 at 8:15 PM
This is a good outcome for investor protection and the ETF industry since these products offer little value to investors and most folks can't easily understand the risks inherent in such strategies.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The biggest question for the macro economy in the second half was whether the summer surge in demand would translate into better hiring, kicking off a positively reinforcing spending->income cycle. At this point its pretty clear it has not.
December 3, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The biggest question for the macro economy in the second half was whether the summer surge in demand would translate into better hiring, kicking off a positively reinforcing spending->income cycle. At this point its pretty clear it has not.
Admin's New Efforts Ensures Weak Labor Supply
Recent announcements by the admin suggest an expanding efforts to reduce immigration, even to green cards. The rhetoric suggests the labor supply drag seen so far may accelerate into '26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/admins-new...
Recent announcements by the admin suggest an expanding efforts to reduce immigration, even to green cards. The rhetoric suggests the labor supply drag seen so far may accelerate into '26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/admins-new...
December 3, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Admin's New Efforts Ensures Weak Labor Supply
Recent announcements by the admin suggest an expanding efforts to reduce immigration, even to green cards. The rhetoric suggests the labor supply drag seen so far may accelerate into '26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/admins-new...
Recent announcements by the admin suggest an expanding efforts to reduce immigration, even to green cards. The rhetoric suggests the labor supply drag seen so far may accelerate into '26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/admins-new...
‘Tis the Season to Tax Loss Harvest! While most asset are up this year, wide dispersion in alt manager returns provides a great opportunity to offset gains and reallocate to manager diversified strategies for '26. Managed futures just one example:
unlimitedfunds.com/tis-the-seas...
unlimitedfunds.com/tis-the-seas...
December 2, 2025 at 8:15 PM
‘Tis the Season to Tax Loss Harvest! While most asset are up this year, wide dispersion in alt manager returns provides a great opportunity to offset gains and reallocate to manager diversified strategies for '26. Managed futures just one example:
unlimitedfunds.com/tis-the-seas...
unlimitedfunds.com/tis-the-seas...
An indication that the incremental investment demand for gold has shifted from the East to the West over the last year, suggesting further gains are going to require even more US investment demand ahead.
December 2, 2025 at 6:28 PM
An indication that the incremental investment demand for gold has shifted from the East to the West over the last year, suggesting further gains are going to require even more US investment demand ahead.
The Yen Carry Trade Is Dead
Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-yen-ca...
Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-yen-ca...
December 2, 2025 at 11:46 AM
The Yen Carry Trade Is Dead
Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-yen-ca...
Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-yen-ca...
Buffer ETFs are almost always a terrible deal for investors because of their high fees and gains capping, but hey at least the issuers get rich.
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
December 1, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Buffer ETFs are almost always a terrible deal for investors because of their high fees and gains capping, but hey at least the issuers get rich.
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
Last few years showed once again much better to 1) increase diversification and 2) hold cash to meet risk targets.
unlimitedfunds.com/diversified-...
For all the worries about the banking system after the SVB kerfuffle, you'd hardly notice it on any charts giving a longer-term perspective. The biggest issue banks face these days is there are few real economy borrowers at these rate levels so they instead are doing financial lending.
December 1, 2025 at 6:13 PM
For all the worries about the banking system after the SVB kerfuffle, you'd hardly notice it on any charts giving a longer-term perspective. The biggest issue banks face these days is there are few real economy borrowers at these rate levels so they instead are doing financial lending.
Squinting At Black Friday Sales
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
December 1, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Squinting At Black Friday Sales
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
Headline Black Friday sales rose ~4%, but weakening e-commerce reads suggest a bit softer demand. With jobs flat and wages soft, the holiday season will test whether households can keep spending.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/squinting-...
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
November 30, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
Great to join the In The Money Pod earlier this week to talk about the 2 hedge fund secrets no one in the industry dares to say out loud and some thoughts on how to navigate a late cycle environment.
youtu.be/c_P2mN6h5gc?...
youtu.be/c_P2mN6h5gc?...
Ex–Bridgewater Insider Reveals the Hedge Fund Secret No One Talks About
👉 Click Here to Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/@inthemoneypod?sub_confirmation=1
Ex–Bridgewater Insider Reveals the Hedge Fund Secret No One Talks About | In the Money with Amber Kanwar
Are…
youtu.be
November 30, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Great to join the In The Money Pod earlier this week to talk about the 2 hedge fund secrets no one in the industry dares to say out loud and some thoughts on how to navigate a late cycle environment.
youtu.be/c_P2mN6h5gc?...
youtu.be/c_P2mN6h5gc?...
Reeves budget set to raise $35bln certainly calmed the market this week and is set to continue the ongoing adjustment that should favor bonds ahead that I wrote about a few weeks ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
November 29, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Reeves budget set to raise $35bln certainly calmed the market this week and is set to continue the ongoing adjustment that should favor bonds ahead that I wrote about a few weeks ago.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
Aussie inflation was already above the RBA mandate and now it looks to be rising further. Likely means the RBA will be on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
November 29, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Aussie inflation was already above the RBA mandate and now it looks to be rising further. Likely means the RBA will be on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...
Any time I talk about the macro dynamics of the US housing market it sparks a lot of interest, so I'm making it my free blog app piece of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
US House Prices Are Too Damn High
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com
November 29, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Any time I talk about the macro dynamics of the US housing market it sparks a lot of interest, so I'm making it my free blog app piece of the week:
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...