Bob Elliott
@bobeunlimited.bsky.social
CIO @ Unlimited | Fmr Bridgewater IC | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit (or is it #finsky?) | Comments are not investment advice
Folks hoping that homes become affordable have one path to purchase a home - just hold off for about 10 years until their incomes to rise enough to pay today's sky high prices.
November 26, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Folks hoping that homes become affordable have one path to purchase a home - just hold off for about 10 years until their incomes to rise enough to pay today's sky high prices.
Easy Money Hopes Lean on Tough Reality
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
November 26, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Easy Money Hopes Lean on Tough Reality
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Weaker data has renewed hopes for easy money ahead. While assets bounced, the moves have been muted vs the October euphoria, suggesting the ‘bad news is good news’ trade may be running out of steam.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
The last time that US homes were this unaffordable was at the peak of the housing boom. It's going to take far more than 50bps drop in mortgage rates before there is a sustainable bottoming and reacceleration in the housing market.
November 25, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The last time that US homes were this unaffordable was at the peak of the housing boom. It's going to take far more than 50bps drop in mortgage rates before there is a sustainable bottoming and reacceleration in the housing market.
US House Prices Are Too Damn High
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
November 25, 2025 at 11:30 AM
US House Prices Are Too Damn High
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Lower mortgage rates aren’t reviving housing b/c prices remain too high, with ~15% price drop *and* 3% mortgage rates required for a cycle bottom. And with it neutering the Fed's top easing lever.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/us-house-p...
Everyone feels like a genius today.
November 25, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Everyone feels like a genius today.
While managed futures ETFs often have higher expense ratios than typical ETFs, the fees remain far lower for retail investors than the vast majority of mutual funds running similar strategies and far lower than traditional 2&20 LP investments.
November 24, 2025 at 8:31 PM
While managed futures ETFs often have higher expense ratios than typical ETFs, the fees remain far lower for retail investors than the vast majority of mutual funds running similar strategies and far lower than traditional 2&20 LP investments.
The Haunting of Abe’s Ghost
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
November 24, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The Haunting of Abe’s Ghost
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
Takaichi’s modest stimulus is colliding with a tighter BoJ, pushing yields higher. With economic malaise endemic, Japan requires much more aggressive policy efforts to reach escape velocity.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-haunti...
Another good sign from this week's PMI data that European economic conditions are holding up well.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
November 23, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Another good sign from this week's PMI data that European economic conditions are holding up well.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/europe-low...
For all the hopes that lower mortgage rates would kick off a new round of housing strength, this week's existing home sales data confirmed transaction activity remains woefully depressed.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
November 22, 2025 at 6:13 PM
For all the hopes that lower mortgage rates would kick off a new round of housing strength, this week's existing home sales data confirmed transaction activity remains woefully depressed.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-sl...
Some signs in this week's data that UK inflation is now moving down consistently, which should provide some room for the BoE to deliver much needed easing and with it lower rates and a lower currency.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
November 22, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Some signs in this week's data that UK inflation is now moving down consistently, which should provide some room for the BoE to deliver much needed easing and with it lower rates and a lower currency.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-uk-adj...
Managed futures hedge fund managers have shown no outperformance persistence relative to their peers. If a manager was in the top quartile over the previous year they only have a 25% change of being top quartile in each of the subsequent 5 years.
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
November 21, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Managed futures hedge fund managers have shown no outperformance persistence relative to their peers. If a manager was in the top quartile over the previous year they only have a 25% change of being top quartile in each of the subsequent 5 years.
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
More here:
unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...
Your irregular reminder that PMI/ISM surveys are random noise which are best faded vs. followed, including the services PMI released today.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
November 21, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Your irregular reminder that PMI/ISM surveys are random noise which are best faded vs. followed, including the services PMI released today.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ism-an...
Boy That Escalated Quickly
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
November 21, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Boy That Escalated Quickly
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
AI mania and easy-policy bets pushed assets to highs, but not even a good NVDA print and an employment report opening the door for a Dec easing could do enough to keep the euphoria from fading.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/boy-that-e...
Managed Futures strategies have reliably maintained low correlation over decades to asset markets like stocks, with no evidence these managers have leaned into beta during the recent rally. Trouble is without lower fees managers take most of the alpha for themselves.
November 20, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Managed Futures strategies have reliably maintained low correlation over decades to asset markets like stocks, with no evidence these managers have leaned into beta during the recent rally. Trouble is without lower fees managers take most of the alpha for themselves.
Weekly ADP adds a new timely labor market indicator to the mix. Looks like private sector employment got a bit better in early October, but has softened again into November. And remember this is during the time when ~100k gov employees were rolling off due to the buyout.
November 20, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Weekly ADP adds a new timely labor market indicator to the mix. Looks like private sector employment got a bit better in early October, but has softened again into November. And remember this is during the time when ~100k gov employees were rolling off due to the buyout.
The job market remains mostly frozen (low hiring, low firing), though there are some incremental signs of rising layoffs lately. Most of the WARN rise in Oct looks concentrated in Washington state (AMZN and SBUX), but worth keeping an eye on. h/t @thedailyshot
November 20, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The job market remains mostly frozen (low hiring, low firing), though there are some incremental signs of rising layoffs lately. Most of the WARN rise in Oct looks concentrated in Washington state (AMZN and SBUX), but worth keeping an eye on. h/t @thedailyshot
Sputtering Wage Growth Hits Households
With job gains near zero and wage growth slipping toward pre-covid levels, HH income is weakening just as inflation rises. That's creating a real challenge for a continued income-driven expansion.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/sputtering...
With job gains near zero and wage growth slipping toward pre-covid levels, HH income is weakening just as inflation rises. That's creating a real challenge for a continued income-driven expansion.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/sputtering...
November 20, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Sputtering Wage Growth Hits Households
With job gains near zero and wage growth slipping toward pre-covid levels, HH income is weakening just as inflation rises. That's creating a real challenge for a continued income-driven expansion.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/sputtering...
With job gains near zero and wage growth slipping toward pre-covid levels, HH income is weakening just as inflation rises. That's creating a real challenge for a continued income-driven expansion.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/sputtering...
Wealth swings likely drive consumption more than it did pre-covid, but income growth is still by far the dominant driver particularly given the higher spending propensity. And remember 50% of HH wealth is in housing.
November 19, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Wealth swings likely drive consumption more than it did pre-covid, but income growth is still by far the dominant driver particularly given the higher spending propensity. And remember 50% of HH wealth is in housing.
AI’s Modest Productivity Boost
Three years into widespread adoption, AI has delivered a 0.4% productivity growth bump, putting it on pace with PC-scale lift at best (~1/2 the time) rather than radically reshaping the macroeconomy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/ais-modest...
Three years into widespread adoption, AI has delivered a 0.4% productivity growth bump, putting it on pace with PC-scale lift at best (~1/2 the time) rather than radically reshaping the macroeconomy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/ais-modest...
November 19, 2025 at 11:48 AM
AI’s Modest Productivity Boost
Three years into widespread adoption, AI has delivered a 0.4% productivity growth bump, putting it on pace with PC-scale lift at best (~1/2 the time) rather than radically reshaping the macroeconomy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/ais-modest...
Three years into widespread adoption, AI has delivered a 0.4% productivity growth bump, putting it on pace with PC-scale lift at best (~1/2 the time) rather than radically reshaping the macroeconomy.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/ais-modest...
Hedge funds don't have a strategy problem, they have a fee problem.
So the best replication approach focuses on the returns before fees. It's not too hard to estimate in real time with the combination of data on fees, manager dispersion, and timely net index returns.
So the best replication approach focuses on the returns before fees. It's not too hard to estimate in real time with the combination of data on fees, manager dispersion, and timely net index returns.
November 18, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Hedge funds don't have a strategy problem, they have a fee problem.
So the best replication approach focuses on the returns before fees. It's not too hard to estimate in real time with the combination of data on fees, manager dispersion, and timely net index returns.
So the best replication approach focuses on the returns before fees. It's not too hard to estimate in real time with the combination of data on fees, manager dispersion, and timely net index returns.
Even with the recent declines most investors in the Bitcoin ETFs are in the black. A move below 80k will wipe out their gains in aggregate and likely start kicking off questions about the unwinding of institutional allocations.
November 18, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Even with the recent declines most investors in the Bitcoin ETFs are in the black. A move below 80k will wipe out their gains in aggregate and likely start kicking off questions about the unwinding of institutional allocations.
Folks focused on specific markets may not realize that financial assets peaked roughly a month ago, other than a post-end of shutdown moment of euphoria that quickly reversed.
November 18, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Folks focused on specific markets may not realize that financial assets peaked roughly a month ago, other than a post-end of shutdown moment of euphoria that quickly reversed.
Crypto Crash with Minimal Macro Impact
Crypto’s $1T plunge sounds big, but the US macro hit is tiny on par with a typical 1d S&P 500 swing. While those concentrated in the assets will feel pain, the broader economy won't notice.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/crypto-cra...
Crypto’s $1T plunge sounds big, but the US macro hit is tiny on par with a typical 1d S&P 500 swing. While those concentrated in the assets will feel pain, the broader economy won't notice.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/crypto-cra...
November 18, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Crypto Crash with Minimal Macro Impact
Crypto’s $1T plunge sounds big, but the US macro hit is tiny on par with a typical 1d S&P 500 swing. While those concentrated in the assets will feel pain, the broader economy won't notice.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/crypto-cra...
Crypto’s $1T plunge sounds big, but the US macro hit is tiny on par with a typical 1d S&P 500 swing. While those concentrated in the assets will feel pain, the broader economy won't notice.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/crypto-cra...
Hedge fund fees haven't changed much from the old days despite all the efforts at similar returning lower-cost products. If anything passthrough fees are pushing costs upward again. So sure it's not 2&20, but its still 1.6% & 18%.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 17, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Hedge fund fees haven't changed much from the old days despite all the efforts at similar returning lower-cost products. If anything passthrough fees are pushing costs upward again. So sure it's not 2&20, but its still 1.6% & 18%.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Japanese real GDP posted a 1.8% annualized *contraction* for the third quarter overnight. But the much bigger deal is real GDP is basically flat vs pre-covid levels, even 6 years later. Makes sense why the PM called BoJ tightening efforts "stupid."
November 17, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Japanese real GDP posted a 1.8% annualized *contraction* for the third quarter overnight. But the much bigger deal is real GDP is basically flat vs pre-covid levels, even 6 years later. Makes sense why the PM called BoJ tightening efforts "stupid."