Daniel Zhao
@danielzhao.bsky.social
Glassdoor Chief Economist
glassdoor.com/research
I post charts about the job market and workplace trends
Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter
Maryland born & raised, now in NYC
glassdoor.com/research
I post charts about the job market and workplace trends
Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter
Maryland born & raised, now in NYC
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Wish you all a Merry Christmas. Stay safe and don't forget to check the weather before you head out. weather.gov.
December 25, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Wish you all a Merry Christmas. Stay safe and don't forget to check the weather before you head out. weather.gov.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
wrote about Kalshi's business being about 5% truth machine/95% sportsbook (even if they refuse to mention it)
www.ft.com/content/1ac0...
www.ft.com/content/1ac0...
Prediction markets barely make money; sportsbooks make money
Kalshi’s ‘truth machine’ is financialising differences of opinion (about sports)
www.ft.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:34 PM
wrote about Kalshi's business being about 5% truth machine/95% sportsbook (even if they refuse to mention it)
www.ft.com/content/1ac0...
www.ft.com/content/1ac0...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
UMich sentiment still near all time lows--but if you think it is problematic b/c of phone surveys, etc we always have Conference Board and it shows a much less dramatic but still fairly bearish state of consumer confidence, in part because a cooling labor market raises anxiety @ income prospects
December 19, 2025 at 3:39 PM
UMich sentiment still near all time lows--but if you think it is problematic b/c of phone surveys, etc we always have Conference Board and it shows a much less dramatic but still fairly bearish state of consumer confidence, in part because a cooling labor market raises anxiety @ income prospects
CFO survey from Duke, Richmond Fed, Atlanta Fed showed modest decline in economic optimism in Q4 2025, just barely lowest since Q4 2023.
Conversely though concerns about tariffs, monetary policy & inflation have all dropped from Q3 2025 to Q4.
Source: www.richmondfed.org/research/nat...
Conversely though concerns about tariffs, monetary policy & inflation have all dropped from Q3 2025 to Q4.
Source: www.richmondfed.org/research/nat...
December 17, 2025 at 2:50 PM
CFO survey from Duke, Richmond Fed, Atlanta Fed showed modest decline in economic optimism in Q4 2025, just barely lowest since Q4 2023.
Conversely though concerns about tariffs, monetary policy & inflation have all dropped from Q3 2025 to Q4.
Source: www.richmondfed.org/research/nat...
Conversely though concerns about tariffs, monetary policy & inflation have all dropped from Q3 2025 to Q4.
Source: www.richmondfed.org/research/nat...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
BLS extended the collection period as a result of the shutdown, resulting in a somewhat better initial collection rate than has been typical lately (though slightly worse than in September, when the data was even more delayed).
December 16, 2025 at 5:43 PM
BLS extended the collection period as a result of the shutdown, resulting in a somewhat better initial collection rate than has been typical lately (though slightly worse than in September, when the data was even more delayed).
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Notable that the big increase in unemployment recently has been among people re-entering the labor force to look for work, not people losing jobs.
December 16, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Notable that the big increase in unemployment recently has been among people re-entering the labor force to look for work, not people losing jobs.
Nov #jobsreport today is our first view of job market post-shutdown
-Payrolls grew 64k in Nov
-Payrolls fell 105k in Oct, driven by 162k federal job losses as the deferred resignation program took effect at end of Sep
-Unemp rose to 4.6% in Nov (no Oct data) from 4.4% in Sep
#NumbersDay 1/
-Payrolls grew 64k in Nov
-Payrolls fell 105k in Oct, driven by 162k federal job losses as the deferred resignation program took effect at end of Sep
-Unemp rose to 4.6% in Nov (no Oct data) from 4.4% in Sep
#NumbersDay 1/
December 16, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Nov #jobsreport today is our first view of job market post-shutdown
-Payrolls grew 64k in Nov
-Payrolls fell 105k in Oct, driven by 162k federal job losses as the deferred resignation program took effect at end of Sep
-Unemp rose to 4.6% in Nov (no Oct data) from 4.4% in Sep
#NumbersDay 1/
-Payrolls grew 64k in Nov
-Payrolls fell 105k in Oct, driven by 162k federal job losses as the deferred resignation program took effect at end of Sep
-Unemp rose to 4.6% in Nov (no Oct data) from 4.4% in Sep
#NumbersDay 1/
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
BLS FAQ on "2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Current Population Survey" tl;dr Do NOT freak out tomorrow. www.bls.gov/cps/methods/...
2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Current Population Survey
www.bls.gov
December 15, 2025 at 4:26 PM
BLS FAQ on "2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Current Population Survey" tl;dr Do NOT freak out tomorrow. www.bls.gov/cps/methods/...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
"Preliminary research, which is not comprehensive and is subject to updates in QCEW data, indicates that the primary
contributors to the overestimation of employment growth are likely the result of two sources—response
error and nonresponse error." (4/9)
contributors to the overestimation of employment growth are likely the result of two sources—response
error and nonresponse error." (4/9)
December 11, 2025 at 7:17 PM
"Preliminary research, which is not comprehensive and is subject to updates in QCEW data, indicates that the primary
contributors to the overestimation of employment growth are likely the result of two sources—response
error and nonresponse error." (4/9)
contributors to the overestimation of employment growth are likely the result of two sources—response
error and nonresponse error." (4/9)
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
A nice thread from Guy on JP's comments yesterday on NFP growth being overstated.
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
An explainer for Fed Chair Powell's comment about nonfarm payroll growth being overstated, which IMHO is being blown out of proportion:
1/ In yesterday's press conference, Powell said there is an overcount of ~60K/month in NFP, which has set off a new round of hyperventilation.
1/ In yesterday's press conference, Powell said there is an overcount of ~60K/month in NFP, which has set off a new round of hyperventilation.
December 11, 2025 at 7:17 PM
A nice thread from Guy on JP's comments yesterday on NFP growth being overstated.
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
Employee sentiment dropped further in the November Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. 44.6% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers in November, down from 45.9% in October. Despite the shutdown ending, worker anxiety remains high.
www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
December 11, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Employee sentiment dropped further in the November Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. 44.6% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers in November, down from 45.9% in October. Despite the shutdown ending, worker anxiety remains high.
www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 236,000 last week, a sharp rebound after an unusual drop the prev week (perhaps due to some unadj. Thanksgiving seasonality).
Continuing claims similarly fell sharply, but may be facing the same issue (continuing claims are lagged an extra wk)
Continuing claims similarly fell sharply, but may be facing the same issue (continuing claims are lagged an extra wk)
December 11, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 236,000 last week, a sharp rebound after an unusual drop the prev week (perhaps due to some unadj. Thanksgiving seasonality).
Continuing claims similarly fell sharply, but may be facing the same issue (continuing claims are lagged an extra wk)
Continuing claims similarly fell sharply, but may be facing the same issue (continuing claims are lagged an extra wk)
Missed this at the time but the Sep jobs report announced changes to the net birth-death model effective with the Jan 2026 report release that seems promising. Should improve the accuracy of the model and hopefully reduce size of benchmark revisions
Q9: www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm
Q9: www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm
December 10, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Missed this at the time but the Sep jobs report announced changes to the net birth-death model effective with the Jan 2026 report release that seems promising. Should improve the accuracy of the model and hopefully reduce size of benchmark revisions
Q9: www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm
Q9: www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
Same product. Same store. Same time. But on Instacart, different customers may see different prices.
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
Same Product, Same Store, but on Instacart, Prices Might Differ
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:01 PM
A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
#JOLTS is back from shutdown with Oct report today including Sep + Oct data:
-Hires rate 3.2%, down from 3.4% in Sep flat from Aug
-Quits rate down to 1.8% from 2.0% in Sep, 1.9% in Aug
-Openings up to 7.67m from 7.66m in Sep, 7.23m in Aug
-Layoffs jump to 1.85m from 1.78m in Sep, 1.73 in Aug
1/
-Hires rate 3.2%, down from 3.4% in Sep flat from Aug
-Quits rate down to 1.8% from 2.0% in Sep, 1.9% in Aug
-Openings up to 7.67m from 7.66m in Sep, 7.23m in Aug
-Layoffs jump to 1.85m from 1.78m in Sep, 1.73 in Aug
1/
December 9, 2025 at 3:05 PM
#JOLTS is back from shutdown with Oct report today including Sep + Oct data:
-Hires rate 3.2%, down from 3.4% in Sep flat from Aug
-Quits rate down to 1.8% from 2.0% in Sep, 1.9% in Aug
-Openings up to 7.67m from 7.66m in Sep, 7.23m in Aug
-Layoffs jump to 1.85m from 1.78m in Sep, 1.73 in Aug
1/
-Hires rate 3.2%, down from 3.4% in Sep flat from Aug
-Quits rate down to 1.8% from 2.0% in Sep, 1.9% in Aug
-Openings up to 7.67m from 7.66m in Sep, 7.23m in Aug
-Layoffs jump to 1.85m from 1.78m in Sep, 1.73 in Aug
1/
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
In the first six months of congestion pricing, air pollution within Manhattan's toll zone dropped 25%.
Pollution fell across the five boroughs and in the suburbs, too. A clean air win all around.
Pollution fell across the five boroughs and in the suburbs, too. A clean air win all around.
Congestion pricing improved air quality in NYC and suburbs | Cornell Chronicle
Cornell researchers tallied the environmental benefits of New York City’s congestion pricing program and found air pollution dropped by 22% in Manhattan, with additional declines across the city’s fiv...
news.cornell.edu
December 9, 2025 at 12:23 PM
In the first six months of congestion pricing, air pollution within Manhattan's toll zone dropped 25%.
Pollution fell across the five boroughs and in the suburbs, too. A clean air win all around.
Pollution fell across the five boroughs and in the suburbs, too. A clean air win all around.
Bank of America payroll estimate has been trending even worse than ADP recently. Latest data from Nov at +0.2% payroll growth year-over-year.
*They only produce a 3-month average of year-over-year % change
institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-ins...
*They only produce a 3-month average of year-over-year % change
institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-ins...
December 8, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Bank of America payroll estimate has been trending even worse than ADP recently. Latest data from Nov at +0.2% payroll growth year-over-year.
*They only produce a 3-month average of year-over-year % change
institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-ins...
*They only produce a 3-month average of year-over-year % change
institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-ins...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Advance insight to help you code around a new, stupid issue.
How will BLS represent missing data values resulting from the govt shutdown in the #JOLTS data release tomorrow?
#NumbersDay
cc: @bencasselman.bsky.social @nickbunker.bsky.social @jc-econ.bsky.social
How will BLS represent missing data values resulting from the govt shutdown in the #JOLTS data release tomorrow?
#NumbersDay
cc: @bencasselman.bsky.social @nickbunker.bsky.social @jc-econ.bsky.social
December 8, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Advance insight to help you code around a new, stupid issue.
How will BLS represent missing data values resulting from the govt shutdown in the #JOLTS data release tomorrow?
#NumbersDay
cc: @bencasselman.bsky.social @nickbunker.bsky.social @jc-econ.bsky.social
How will BLS represent missing data values resulting from the govt shutdown in the #JOLTS data release tomorrow?
#NumbersDay
cc: @bencasselman.bsky.social @nickbunker.bsky.social @jc-econ.bsky.social
The gender pay gap widened in Q3 2025 to the widest since Q1 2020. The ratio of full-time working women's earnings to men's fell to 80.9% in Q3, a continued deterioration from a record 84.6% in Q2 2023.
Source: BLS, www.bls.gov/news.release...
Source: BLS, www.bls.gov/news.release...
December 4, 2025 at 5:34 PM
The gender pay gap widened in Q3 2025 to the widest since Q1 2020. The ratio of full-time working women's earnings to men's fell to 80.9% in Q3, a continued deterioration from a record 84.6% in Q2 2023.
Source: BLS, www.bls.gov/news.release...
Source: BLS, www.bls.gov/news.release...
Merry Christmas from the BEA 🎄
BEA: New date for GDP Dec 23rd:
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)
December 1, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Merry Christmas from the BEA 🎄
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Community college enrollment has been declining since 2009/10. The optimal policy response to this depends on the root of this decline.
I'm thrilled @nber.org today released my working paper with Harvard PhD Joe Winkelmann titled:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
I'm thrilled @nber.org today released my working paper with Harvard PhD Joe Winkelmann titled:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
December 1, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Community college enrollment has been declining since 2009/10. The optimal policy response to this depends on the root of this decline.
I'm thrilled @nber.org today released my working paper with Harvard PhD Joe Winkelmann titled:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
I'm thrilled @nber.org today released my working paper with Harvard PhD Joe Winkelmann titled:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
Paid my rent today and got a sports gambling ad afterwards 🤔
November 25, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Paid my rent today and got a sports gambling ad afterwards 🤔
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
BofA: We think tighter immigration policies will reduce the breakeven pace of employment growth to about 20k
November 24, 2025 at 10:21 AM
BofA: We think tighter immigration policies will reduce the breakeven pace of employment growth to about 20k
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Latest ICE deportation data through mid-November suggest Trump and Miller are at half their desired pace of deportations (one million annually)
November 21, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Latest ICE deportation data through mid-November suggest Trump and Miller are at half their desired pace of deportations (one million annually)