Daniel Zhao
@danielzhao.bsky.social
Glassdoor Chief Economist
glassdoor.com/research
I post charts about the job market and workplace trends
Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter
Maryland born & raised, now in NYC
glassdoor.com/research
I post charts about the job market and workplace trends
Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter
Maryland born & raised, now in NYC
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Breaking News: The New York City Council overwhelmingly approved a rezoning on Wednesday that could transform an industrial stretch of Queens into thousands of apartments — private development aimed at addressing the city’s affordable housing crisis. nyti.ms/4p71Cqv
November 12, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Breaking News: The New York City Council overwhelmingly approved a rezoning on Wednesday that could transform an industrial stretch of Queens into thousands of apartments — private development aimed at addressing the city’s affordable housing crisis. nyti.ms/4p71Cqv
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
My guess (emphasis guess) is that we might see CES and PPI numbers for October but rolled into the November release
November 12, 2025 at 8:25 PM
My guess (emphasis guess) is that we might see CES and PPI numbers for October but rolled into the November release
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Situation is more complicated for the unemployment rate but if the WH is saying it’s not possible that means BLS/Census told them it isn’t
November 12, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Situation is more complicated for the unemployment rate but if the WH is saying it’s not possible that means BLS/Census told them it isn’t
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.
October jobs data may never be released, White House says
October jobs data may never be released, White House says
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been unable to collect price data and employment information during the record-breaking government shutdown.
dlvr.it
November 12, 2025 at 8:25 PM
All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
The White House is suggesting October CPI and employment reports will be skipped entirely. That has been our assumption. Collecting the CPI and HH survey are simply infeasible. Oct NFP can be collected and folded into the Nov report which almost surely will also be delayed by a week or more...1/2
November 12, 2025 at 7:14 PM
The White House is suggesting October CPI and employment reports will be skipped entirely. That has been our assumption. Collecting the CPI and HH survey are simply infeasible. Oct NFP can be collected and folded into the Nov report which almost surely will also be delayed by a week or more...1/2
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
...(so released after the Dec FOMC meeting). The survey week for the Nov HH survey will still be Nov 2-8 when the govt was shut down so we should still see a spike in the UR from furloughed workers (as @econberger.bsky.social has pointed out) 2/2
November 12, 2025 at 7:14 PM
...(so released after the Dec FOMC meeting). The survey week for the Nov HH survey will still be Nov 2-8 when the govt was shut down so we should still see a spike in the UR from furloughed workers (as @econberger.bsky.social has pointed out) 2/2
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Oof
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
November 12, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Oof
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
More color from JPMAM Kelly: Of the -35k Oct payrolls drop, there was likely a 120k decline in the federal workforce.
November 10, 2025 at 3:17 PM
More color from JPMAM Kelly: Of the -35k Oct payrolls drop, there was likely a 120k decline in the federal workforce.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Forgot until just now that this is one of those years when the CPS reference week for November comes early. Is this week. www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...
Concepts and Definitions (CPS)
Concepts and Definitions (CPS)
www.bls.gov
November 7, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Forgot until just now that this is one of those years when the CPS reference week for November comes early. Is this week. www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
It's #jobsday! Except it isn't, because of the government shutdown. Which means that we're left sifting through alternative data sources to try to figure out what's going on in the labor market.
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
November 7, 2025 at 1:34 PM
It's #jobsday! Except it isn't, because of the government shutdown. Which means that we're left sifting through alternative data sources to try to figure out what's going on in the labor market.
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
Bank of America Institute data from October points to ongoing job market slowing with estimated payroll growing slightly slower than ADP and unemployment payments growing faster than continuing claims.
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
November 7, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Bank of America Institute data from October points to ongoing job market slowing with estimated payroll growing slightly slower than ADP and unemployment payments growing faster than continuing claims.
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
Employee sentiment tumbled in October, according to the latest Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. 45.7% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers in October, down from 47.8% in September.
www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
November 6, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Employee sentiment tumbled in October, according to the latest Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. 45.7% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers in October, down from 47.8% in September.
www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Data dogs step aside, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee's new metaphor on inflation risks: "The last time you looked out the window, there was a mountain lion sitting in your front yard. So before you let Fluffy out to go run around, let's at least get one more look."
November 3, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Data dogs step aside, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee's new metaphor on inflation risks: "The last time you looked out the window, there was a mountain lion sitting in your front yard. So before you let Fluffy out to go run around, let's at least get one more look."
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
November 3, 2025 at 2:13 PM
New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
But looking across industries, this spare capacity is not particularly concentrated in industries gaining new tariff protection. In 2025 so far, capacity utilization has not risen more in industries receiving more new import protection. (2/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote
October 31, 2025 at 7:45 PM
But looking across industries, this spare capacity is not particularly concentrated in industries gaining new tariff protection. In 2025 so far, capacity utilization has not risen more in industries receiving more new import protection. (2/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
To put this in context, employee count is down vs 4 years ago, while Amazon sales are up 31% or nearly $41 billion.
Amazon headcount grew in Q3 2025 to 1,578,000, up 2% QoQ & YoY and now at the highest level since Q1 2022.
The QoQ increase of 32,000 employees is ironically almost the same as their plan to cut 30,000 corporate employees, reported earlier this week: www.reuters.com/business/wor...
The QoQ increase of 32,000 employees is ironically almost the same as their plan to cut 30,000 corporate employees, reported earlier this week: www.reuters.com/business/wor...
October 31, 2025 at 12:38 PM
To put this in context, employee count is down vs 4 years ago, while Amazon sales are up 31% or nearly $41 billion.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Yet the new hesitancy about cutting in December seems more a response to a potential rebound in jobs rather than worries about inflation. Some on the committee think growth is improving, which could actually boost hiring.
Powell: "They're noticing stronger economic activity."
Powell: "They're noticing stronger economic activity."
October 30, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Yet the new hesitancy about cutting in December seems more a response to a potential rebound in jobs rather than worries about inflation. Some on the committee think growth is improving, which could actually boost hiring.
Powell: "They're noticing stronger economic activity."
Powell: "They're noticing stronger economic activity."
Meta employee count up 3% QoQ, 8% YoY in Q3 2025 to 78,450 from 75,945 in Q2
investor.atmeta.com/investor-new...
investor.atmeta.com/investor-new...
October 29, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Meta employee count up 3% QoQ, 8% YoY in Q3 2025 to 78,450 from 75,945 in Q2
investor.atmeta.com/investor-new...
investor.atmeta.com/investor-new...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
First up @nicktimiraos.bsky.social Q: are you uncomfortable with market pricing of a move at the next meeting?
A: We're not on a preset course and markets need to take that on board. We had strong views and strongly differing views today.
A: We're not on a preset course and markets need to take that on board. We had strong views and strongly differing views today.
October 29, 2025 at 6:39 PM
First up @nicktimiraos.bsky.social Q: are you uncomfortable with market pricing of a move at the next meeting?
A: We're not on a preset course and markets need to take that on board. We had strong views and strongly differing views today.
A: We're not on a preset course and markets need to take that on board. We had strong views and strongly differing views today.
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
The US obesity rate has declined from its 2022 peak as the use of weight-loss drugs has more than doubled in two years, according to @gallup.com: news.gallup.com/poll/696599/...
October 28, 2025 at 11:37 AM
The US obesity rate has declined from its 2022 peak as the use of weight-loss drugs has more than doubled in two years, according to @gallup.com: news.gallup.com/poll/696599/...
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
"The figure represents a small percentage of Amazon’s 1.55 million total employees, but nearly 10% of the company’s roughly 350,000 corporate employees. This would represent the largest job cut at Amazon since around 27,000 jobs were eliminated starting in late 2022."
Exclusive: Amazon targets as many as 30,000 corporate job cuts, sources say reut.rs/47bl0wB
Exclusive: Amazon targets as many as 30,000 corporate job cuts, sources say
Amazon is planning to cut as many as 30,000 corporate jobs beginning Tuesday, as the company works to pare expenses and compensate for overhiring during the peak demand of the pandemic, according to three people familiar with the matter.
reut.rs
October 27, 2025 at 6:51 PM
"The figure represents a small percentage of Amazon’s 1.55 million total employees, but nearly 10% of the company’s roughly 350,000 corporate employees. This would represent the largest job cut at Amazon since around 27,000 jobs were eliminated starting in late 2022."
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
The Fed lacks gold-standard data that inform its monetary policy decisions, due to the shutdown.
They had a secret deal with ADP for granular private data.
But a Fed governor revealed the collaboration in a speech, so ADP got mad and cut the Fed off.
A laugh-before-crying story from me:
They had a secret deal with ADP for granular private data.
But a Fed governor revealed the collaboration in a speech, so ADP got mad and cut the Fed off.
A laugh-before-crying story from me:
Fed Making Key Economic Decisions Without Key Economic Data - The American Prospect
The Fed considers information from a variety of sources in setting monetary policy, everything from anecdotal reports to original data produced by its regional Reserve Banks. But the loss of public, a...
prospect.org
October 21, 2025 at 1:21 PM
The Fed lacks gold-standard data that inform its monetary policy decisions, due to the shutdown.
They had a secret deal with ADP for granular private data.
But a Fed governor revealed the collaboration in a speech, so ADP got mad and cut the Fed off.
A laugh-before-crying story from me:
They had a secret deal with ADP for granular private data.
But a Fed governor revealed the collaboration in a speech, so ADP got mad and cut the Fed off.
A laugh-before-crying story from me:
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
Everyone who cares about attacks on govt data should be following @hansilowang.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/hans...
On Oct. 10, the Census Bureau issued a notice of a mass layoff of 101 employees of its contact center in Tucson, Ariz., which is now on pause because of court order in a lawsuit led by the American Federation of Government Employees
www.azjobconnection.gov/search/warn_...
www.azjobconnection.gov/search/warn_...
U.S Census Bureau
WARN Notice
- AZ Job Connection
www.azjobconnection.gov
October 18, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Everyone who cares about attacks on govt data should be following @hansilowang.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/hans...