Rahul Sharma
@retailguru.bsky.social
Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice...
Marriott saw strong Q4 leisure demand offset slower corporate travel. #$MAR now sees slower corporate recovery to 2019 levels offset by high-end leisure. Sees disparity between high & low end narrowing from 2025 levels. #$HLT #$ABNB #$DAL #$UAL #$AXP #$V #$MA #$XLF #$XLY
February 10, 2026 at 10:03 PM
Wells echoes Bank of America on solid US consumer, saying credit quality looks very good as well. Commercial fine but as usual corporate confidence (and low appetite for loans) is the sluggish driver, not the consumer #$BAC #$JPM #$WFC #$AXP #$COF #$XLF #$XLY #$XLI #$V #$MA
February 10, 2026 at 9:35 PM
#$BAC CEO stresses again watch what folks do, NOT what they say. Continuing to defy perennial Cassandras since 2023, January spend at #$BAC +5% up across income cohorts. Driven by healthy labor market & with rates set to fall, outlook is still constructive. #$JPM #$XLY #$XLF #$WFC
February 10, 2026 at 9:23 PM
US December retail sales ex gas/autos +3.5%, below prior trend in contrast to retailer/payment provider updates. Furniture rough but all other categories including DIY up. Sport, eating out, web all stand-outs on upside. #$XLY #$XLF #$HD #$LOW #$AMZN #$SBUX #$MCD #$DKS #$WSM
February 10, 2026 at 1:36 PM
Standouts at Marriott: US luxury revpar MUCH stronger vs lower prices hotels in more evidence of two-speed economy. And of course, government shutdown hurt US, but international travel MUCH stronger with revpar +6% vs flat in US. $MAR $HLT $ABNB $DAL $AXP $UAL $XLY $XLF $V $MA
February 10, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Standouts at Marriott: US luxury revpar MUCH stronger vs lower prices hotels in more evidence of two-speed economy. And of course, government shutdown hurt US, but international travel MUCH stronger with revpar +6% vs flat in US. $MAR $HLT $ABNB $DAL $AXP $UAL $XLY $XLF $V $MA
Slightly underwhelming Q but Coke still a standout. Rare staple that has digested bumper Covid pricing, not seen brand equity/volume hit, & still strong pricing: US +3%, Lat Am (staples treasure island) +6%. Speaks to strength of brands, execution. $KO $PEP $XLP $KHC $PG $GIS
February 10, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Slightly underwhelming Q but Coke still a standout. Rare staple that has digested bumper Covid pricing, not seen brand equity/volume hit, & still strong pricing: US +3%, Lat Am (staples treasure island) +6%. Speaks to strength of brands, execution. $KO $PEP $XLP $KHC $PG $GIS
Jassy throws shade at #$GOOGL saying +24% on $142 billion base is special. True. But to spend capex at pace #$AMZN is, AWS needs to accelerate beyond +24%. Backlog +40% is a start. But Q1 sales guide (into accelerating capex) at +9-13% doesn't evidence planned acceleration.
February 6, 2026 at 1:28 PM
While AWS & Capex get all the focus at #$AMZN, US retail grew revenue 10% yet again in home marlet. Margin hit a record 9% (likely 10% ex charges). International margin also adjusted north of 4% at a record. And with high asset turns, retail returns very healthy.
Ex capex, #$AMZN earnings just fine. Ex one-times, it would have reported $2.15, c10% above street estimate. AWS accelerated to +24%. Ads, 3P, Subs all healthy up double digit. Product sales remain slowest grower as high margin revenue streams continue to grow MUCH faster.
February 5, 2026 at 10:33 PM
While AWS & Capex get all the focus at #$AMZN, US retail grew revenue 10% yet again in home marlet. Margin hit a record 9% (likely 10% ex charges). International margin also adjusted north of 4% at a record. And with high asset turns, retail returns very healthy.
Ex capex, #$AMZN earnings just fine. Ex one-times, it would have reported $2.15, c10% above street estimate. AWS accelerated to +24%. Ads, 3P, Subs all healthy up double digit. Product sales remain slowest grower as high margin revenue streams continue to grow MUCH faster.
February 5, 2026 at 10:27 PM
Ex capex, #$AMZN earnings just fine. Ex one-times, it would have reported $2.15, c10% above street estimate. AWS accelerated to +24%. Ads, 3P, Subs all healthy up double digit. Product sales remain slowest grower as high margin revenue streams continue to grow MUCH faster.
Polo follows up Coach with strength but with some blemishes. Europe soft reflecting #$RL has doing well there much longer than #$TPR & is more mature. Also like #$EL, #$RL citing higher marketing (guide management) but also higher tariffs - as boost from early shipments fades.
February 5, 2026 at 1:13 PM
On consternation over guide, this does feel a bit like the Estee of old with ultra-conservative guides. Note guide still above street, & references higher marketing investment (not just tariffs), something #$EL used all the time in stronger times to keep lid on estimates.
February 5, 2026 at 12:55 PM
On consternation over guide, this does feel a bit like the Estee of old with ultra-conservative guides. Note guide still above street, & references higher marketing investment (not just tariffs), something #$EL used all the time in stronger times to keep lid on estimates.
Building blocks to recovery of Estee margin all evident this Q. Highest margin skincare accelerated to +6% & $EL calling out La Mer significant positive. All categories bar fragrance improved as did all major geographies. Margin better across board. $LRLCY $ULTA $LVMUY
February 5, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Building blocks to recovery of Estee margin all evident this Q. Highest margin skincare accelerated to +6% & $EL calling out La Mer significant positive. All categories bar fragrance improved as did all major geographies. Margin better across board. $LRLCY $ULTA $LVMUY
Coach is 🔥 🔥 🔥 at +25% y/y, with 10%+ growth in every region. Crazy brand heat & share gains from LV et al as upscale fashion brands fly way harder than luxury. Plus points to rude health of higher-end globally (remember $AXP saw 15% growth in US luxury retail). $TPR $RL $BURBY $LVMUY $ZGN $XLY
February 5, 2026 at 12:40 PM
Coach is 🔥 🔥 🔥 at +25% y/y, with 10%+ growth in every region. Crazy brand heat & share gains from LV et al as upscale fashion brands fly way harder than luxury. Plus points to rude health of higher-end globally (remember $AXP saw 15% growth in US luxury retail). $TPR $RL $BURBY $LVMUY $ZGN $XLY
Costco momentum ticked up in January with US comp accelerating 50bp to 6.8%, led by ticket +4.6%. Non-food up double digits (led by jewelry = gold). Another pointer US retail has started year strong. #$COST #$LEVI #$URBN #$SBUX #$XLY #$XLF
Costco kicks off holiday reporting with modest US acceleration to solid +6.3% comp. Global traffic stellar 2.7%. Non-food healthy. 💪 $COST $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XRT $V $MA $AXP $JPM $XLY
February 4, 2026 at 10:18 PM
On Services & Cloud alone, this would have been another monster margin quarter at #$GOOGL. Of course some of that ballooning AI spend is showing up corporate ($3 billion higher) plus look at the tripled loss in Other Bets including Waymo.
February 4, 2026 at 10:10 PM
On Services & Cloud alone, this would have been another monster margin quarter at #$GOOGL. Of course some of that ballooning AI spend is showing up corporate ($3 billion higher) plus look at the tripled loss in Other Bets including Waymo.
Of course, #$GOOGL planned 2026 capex is sobering. $180 billion is 2X 2025 & over 3X 2024. The one thing you can say #$GOOGL will still generate free cash flow in 2026 (operating cash flow was $165 billion in 2025). So still living within its means #$AMZN #$MSFT #$META #$ORCL
February 4, 2026 at 10:02 PM
It's all about expectations. But still amazes me how street still sticks to $CPRI super-low bar after so many years. Kors getting worse vs Coach & Polo but this is 'improvement'. Still, Jimmy Choo improving in latest sign of tick up in luxury fashion. $TPR $RL $ZGN $BURBY $CFRUY $LVMUY
February 3, 2026 at 12:55 PM
It's all about expectations. But still amazes me how street still sticks to $CPRI super-low bar after so many years. Kors getting worse vs Coach & Polo but this is 'improvement'. Still, Jimmy Choo improving in latest sign of tick up in luxury fashion. $TPR $RL $ZGN $BURBY $CFRUY $LVMUY
Pepsico categories put it squarely in eye of GLP storm. But brands matter - note improving volume vs awful numbers at US foods. Activist breathing down back = margin momentum on top. Plus $PEP has under-appreciated assets in Lat Am & overseas snacks. $KO $GIS $CPB $MDLZ $KHC $XLP
February 3, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Pepsico categories put it squarely in eye of GLP storm. But brands matter - note improving volume vs awful numbers at US foods. Activist breathing down back = margin momentum on top. Plus $PEP has under-appreciated assets in Lat Am & overseas snacks. $KO $GIS $CPB $MDLZ $KHC $XLP