Rahul Sharma
@retailguru.bsky.social
Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice...
For all the share gains in the world, a business of McDonalds scale doesn't hit 7% comp if consumer is swooning. Chimes with #$BAC & #$V citing spend growth even in lower income cohorts. And way fewer mentions by #$MCD on call of stressed low end vs 3 months ago. #$XLF #$XLY
February 12, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Amid improving backdrop, Hermes & Richemont show top tier luxury in class of its own. $HESAY has now grown 10%+ in every fourth quarter since 2017. China better, US strong. On broader sector readthru, accessible areas like silk & RTW improving. $CFRUY $LVMUY $PPRUY $BURBY $EL
February 12, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Amid improving backdrop, Hermes & Richemont show top tier luxury in class of its own. $HESAY has now grown 10%+ in every fourth quarter since 2017. China better, US strong. On broader sector readthru, accessible areas like silk & RTW improving. $CFRUY $LVMUY $PPRUY $BURBY $EL
Incidentally after early hiccup, results from wide swathe of staples (Pepsi, Coke, Unilever, Bud etc) suggest after hiccup in early 25, Lat Am has reverted to being treasure island. Most back to pricing well above inflation while decrying macros. #$XLP #$KO #$PEP #$UL #$BUD #$PM
February 12, 2026 at 12:54 PM
Unilever out-performing P&G by wide margin (4 points) & with +4% point forward sales guide despite being widely considered far inferior. Not just greater EM exposure - #$UL doing far better in US. #$PG legacy of aggressive premium-isation likely hurting. #$CL #$LRLCY #$XLP
February 12, 2026 at 12:50 PM
Yet if you believed media narrative, gap between high & low end should be 10 points.
February 12, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Yet if you believed media narrative, gap between high & low end should be 10 points.
Hard to stress how awful Kraft-Heinz is. Trifecta of bad sales, margin & outlook with no end in sight. US foods have no answer to GLPs & troubled brand equity, just seem to be hurting to oblivion. Much maligned #$PEP looks like a superstar in comparison. #$KHC #$GIS #$CPB #$XLP #$KO
February 11, 2026 at 1:54 PM
Marriott saw strong Q4 leisure demand offset slower corporate travel. #$MAR now sees slower corporate recovery to 2019 levels offset by high-end leisure. Sees disparity between high & low end narrowing from 2025 levels. #$HLT #$ABNB #$DAL #$UAL #$AXP #$V #$MA #$XLF #$XLY
February 10, 2026 at 10:03 PM
Wells echoes Bank of America on solid US consumer, saying credit quality looks very good as well. Commercial fine but as usual corporate confidence (and low appetite for loans) is the sluggish driver, not the consumer #$BAC #$JPM #$WFC #$AXP #$COF #$XLF #$XLY #$XLI #$V #$MA
February 10, 2026 at 9:35 PM
#$BAC CEO stresses again watch what folks do, NOT what they say. Continuing to defy perennial Cassandras since 2023, January spend at #$BAC +5% up across income cohorts. Driven by healthy labor market & with rates set to fall, outlook is still constructive. #$JPM #$XLY #$XLF #$WFC
February 10, 2026 at 9:23 PM
US December retail sales ex gas/autos +3.5%, below prior trend in contrast to retailer/payment provider updates. Furniture rough but all other categories including DIY up. Sport, eating out, web all stand-outs on upside. #$XLY #$XLF #$HD #$LOW #$AMZN #$SBUX #$MCD #$DKS #$WSM
February 10, 2026 at 1:36 PM
Standouts at Marriott: US luxury revpar MUCH stronger vs lower prices hotels in more evidence of two-speed economy. And of course, government shutdown hurt US, but international travel MUCH stronger with revpar +6% vs flat in US. $MAR $HLT $ABNB $DAL $AXP $UAL $XLY $XLF $V $MA
February 10, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Standouts at Marriott: US luxury revpar MUCH stronger vs lower prices hotels in more evidence of two-speed economy. And of course, government shutdown hurt US, but international travel MUCH stronger with revpar +6% vs flat in US. $MAR $HLT $ABNB $DAL $AXP $UAL $XLY $XLF $V $MA
Slightly underwhelming Q but Coke still a standout. Rare staple that has digested bumper Covid pricing, not seen brand equity/volume hit, & still strong pricing: US +3%, Lat Am (staples treasure island) +6%. Speaks to strength of brands, execution. $KO $PEP $XLP $KHC $PG $GIS
February 10, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Slightly underwhelming Q but Coke still a standout. Rare staple that has digested bumper Covid pricing, not seen brand equity/volume hit, & still strong pricing: US +3%, Lat Am (staples treasure island) +6%. Speaks to strength of brands, execution. $KO $PEP $XLP $KHC $PG $GIS
Jassy throws shade at #$GOOGL saying +24% on $142 billion base is special. True. But to spend capex at pace #$AMZN is, AWS needs to accelerate beyond +24%. Backlog +40% is a start. But Q1 sales guide (into accelerating capex) at +9-13% doesn't evidence planned acceleration.
February 6, 2026 at 1:28 PM
While AWS & Capex get all the focus at #$AMZN, US retail grew revenue 10% yet again in home marlet. Margin hit a record 9% (likely 10% ex charges). International margin also adjusted north of 4% at a record. And with high asset turns, retail returns very healthy.
Ex capex, #$AMZN earnings just fine. Ex one-times, it would have reported $2.15, c10% above street estimate. AWS accelerated to +24%. Ads, 3P, Subs all healthy up double digit. Product sales remain slowest grower as high margin revenue streams continue to grow MUCH faster.
February 5, 2026 at 10:33 PM
While AWS & Capex get all the focus at #$AMZN, US retail grew revenue 10% yet again in home marlet. Margin hit a record 9% (likely 10% ex charges). International margin also adjusted north of 4% at a record. And with high asset turns, retail returns very healthy.
Ex capex, #$AMZN earnings just fine. Ex one-times, it would have reported $2.15, c10% above street estimate. AWS accelerated to +24%. Ads, 3P, Subs all healthy up double digit. Product sales remain slowest grower as high margin revenue streams continue to grow MUCH faster.
February 5, 2026 at 10:27 PM
Ex capex, #$AMZN earnings just fine. Ex one-times, it would have reported $2.15, c10% above street estimate. AWS accelerated to +24%. Ads, 3P, Subs all healthy up double digit. Product sales remain slowest grower as high margin revenue streams continue to grow MUCH faster.
Polo follows up Coach with strength but with some blemishes. Europe soft reflecting #$RL has doing well there much longer than #$TPR & is more mature. Also like #$EL, #$RL citing higher marketing (guide management) but also higher tariffs - as boost from early shipments fades.
February 5, 2026 at 1:13 PM
On consternation over guide, this does feel a bit like the Estee of old with ultra-conservative guides. Note guide still above street, & references higher marketing investment (not just tariffs), something #$EL used all the time in stronger times to keep lid on estimates.
February 5, 2026 at 12:55 PM
On consternation over guide, this does feel a bit like the Estee of old with ultra-conservative guides. Note guide still above street, & references higher marketing investment (not just tariffs), something #$EL used all the time in stronger times to keep lid on estimates.
Building blocks to recovery of Estee margin all evident this Q. Highest margin skincare accelerated to +6% & $EL calling out La Mer significant positive. All categories bar fragrance improved as did all major geographies. Margin better across board. $LRLCY $ULTA $LVMUY
February 5, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Building blocks to recovery of Estee margin all evident this Q. Highest margin skincare accelerated to +6% & $EL calling out La Mer significant positive. All categories bar fragrance improved as did all major geographies. Margin better across board. $LRLCY $ULTA $LVMUY
Coach is 🔥 🔥 🔥 at +25% y/y, with 10%+ growth in every region. Crazy brand heat & share gains from LV et al as upscale fashion brands fly way harder than luxury. Plus points to rude health of higher-end globally (remember $AXP saw 15% growth in US luxury retail). $TPR $RL $BURBY $LVMUY $ZGN $XLY
February 5, 2026 at 12:40 PM
Coach is 🔥 🔥 🔥 at +25% y/y, with 10%+ growth in every region. Crazy brand heat & share gains from LV et al as upscale fashion brands fly way harder than luxury. Plus points to rude health of higher-end globally (remember $AXP saw 15% growth in US luxury retail). $TPR $RL $BURBY $LVMUY $ZGN $XLY
Costco momentum ticked up in January with US comp accelerating 50bp to 6.8%, led by ticket +4.6%. Non-food up double digits (led by jewelry = gold). Another pointer US retail has started year strong. #$COST #$LEVI #$URBN #$SBUX #$XLY #$XLF
Costco kicks off holiday reporting with modest US acceleration to solid +6.3% comp. Global traffic stellar 2.7%. Non-food healthy. 💪 $COST $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XRT $V $MA $AXP $JPM $XLY
February 4, 2026 at 10:18 PM