Rahul Sharma
@retailguru.bsky.social
Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice...
November 21, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Hard truths ahead of UK Budget from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com @financialtimes.com. Likely to increase burden on top earners but those 'broad shoulders' already live in a country with most progressive tax system in West & have been squeezed most in recent years. ft.com/content/75ce...
November 21, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Hard truths ahead of UK Budget from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com @financialtimes.com. Likely to increase burden on top earners but those 'broad shoulders' already live in a country with most progressive tax system in West & have been squeezed most in recent years. ft.com/content/75ce...
October Swiss watch exports to US plummeted 47%, led by watches priced > $3000. Ex-US, +3% confirming nascent recovery seen at Richemont, led by China. Post new 15% tariff deal, US will pick up once shipments brought in on old tariff rates exhausted $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY #luxury
November 21, 2025 at 3:51 PM
October Swiss watch exports to US plummeted 47%, led by watches priced > $3000. Ex-US, +3% confirming nascent recovery seen at Richemont, led by China. Post new 15% tariff deal, US will pick up once shipments brought in on old tariff rates exhausted $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY #luxury
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
November 21, 2025 at 2:19 PM
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
Walmart on tariffs: impact lower than expected. Select price increases & growth in areas like fashion offset it. In food only beef seeing pressure. Welcome recent relief on foodstuffs not grown in US with open arms which was clearly moronic. $WMT $AMZN $TGT $XLY $XLI
November 20, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Walmart on tariffs: impact lower than expected. Select price increases & growth in areas like fashion offset it. In food only beef seeing pressure. Welcome recent relief on foodstuffs not grown in US with open arms which was clearly moronic. $WMT $AMZN $TGT $XLY $XLI
Walmart CFO echoes outgoing CEO; expects Q4 to be consistent with YTD. Strong start to Holiday & portents from Back-2-School & other events are good. This is America’s #3 discretionary retailer & #1 retailer overall. $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Walmart CFO echoes outgoing CEO; expects Q4 to be consistent with YTD. Strong start to Holiday & portents from Back-2-School & other events are good. This is America’s #3 discretionary retailer & #1 retailer overall. $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
McMillon going out on high at Walmart & very upbeat. Points to gains across income cohorts with no US deceleration even with some more weakness at lower end. Consistent through Q & strong in discretionary area, advertising & web driving profit. 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 6:52 PM
McMillon going out on high at Walmart & very upbeat. Points to gains across income cohorts with no US deceleration even with some more weakness at lower end. Consistent through Q & strong in discretionary area, advertising & web driving profit. 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
Mastercard says US consumer healthy into November. On specific question re lower end, points to consistent trends across board. Data like this won't predict turning points but world a lot steadier than feverish commentator talk. $MA $V $JPM $XLF $XLY $WMT $AMZN $WSM $TJX
November 20, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Mastercard says US consumer healthy into November. On specific question re lower end, points to consistent trends across board. Data like this won't predict turning points but world a lot steadier than feverish commentator talk. $MA $V $JPM $XLF $XLY $WMT $AMZN $WSM $TJX
Ok so $BBWI has a new CEO so he's setting his scene. But anyone else note the cognitive dissonance or frankly even mendacity here. Blame weakness on macro pressures & then list gazillion retail basics to improve that you're currently screwing up 😉
November 20, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Ok so $BBWI has a new CEO so he's setting his scene. But anyone else note the cognitive dissonance or frankly even mendacity here. Blame weakness on macro pressures & then list gazillion retail basics to improve that you're currently screwing up 😉
You can critique Target heavily only because of its better disclosure. But contrast grocery down 1% at $TGT vs +2-3% at $WMT. But discretionary goods at $TGT also fully 500+bp lower, even worse given Walmart sells 2X more discretionary goods by dollars. $AMZN
November 20, 2025 at 1:09 PM
You can critique Target heavily only because of its better disclosure. But contrast grocery down 1% at $TGT vs +2-3% at $WMT. But discretionary goods at $TGT also fully 500+bp lower, even worse given Walmart sells 2X more discretionary goods by dollars. $AMZN
Walmart US supercenter comp accelerated on 4-year stack on traffic acceleration. Unlike margin deleverage last Q, EBIT grew faster. $WMT saw strength across store in positive sign on consumer. Also notes as at $TGT & $TJX, non-food prices rising on tariffs. $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Walmart US supercenter comp accelerated on 4-year stack on traffic acceleration. Unlike margin deleverage last Q, EBIT grew faster. $WMT saw strength across store in positive sign on consumer. Also notes as at $TGT & $TJX, non-food prices rising on tariffs. $XLY $XLF
$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY
November 19, 2025 at 9:24 PM
$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY
$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY
November 19, 2025 at 9:21 PM
$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY
Cornell runs a long victory lap in his only real contribution to Target call. And ends with what has to be one of the greatest under-statements of the year… $TGT 🤣
November 19, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Cornell runs a long victory lap in his only real contribution to Target call. And ends with what has to be one of the greatest under-statements of the year… $TGT 🤣
Sensing some street angst on $WSM (what's new 🤷♂️) on Sonoma suggesting big reset in '26 on tariffs. Note for all Q3 'benefit' talk, merch margin only +50bp. Yes tariff hit gets bigger. But coupled with continued lower promos & usual Holiday caution, feels overblown.
November 19, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Sensing some street angst on $WSM (what's new 🤷♂️) on Sonoma suggesting big reset in '26 on tariffs. Note for all Q3 'benefit' talk, merch margin only +50bp. Yes tariff hit gets bigger. But coupled with continued lower promos & usual Holiday caution, feels overblown.
Here Sonoma lays out what makes $WSM brands special. Contrast to Depot/Lowes, furniture moving DESPITE housing. Several years into lower promos, selling margin still up big, not just tariff timing but price rises & crucially product resonating with consumers $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF
November 19, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Here Sonoma lays out what makes $WSM brands special. Contrast to Depot/Lowes, furniture moving DESPITE housing. Several years into lower promos, selling margin still up big, not just tariff timing but price rises & crucially product resonating with consumers $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF
London's prime housing may be in a tail spin but it is still the go-to destination for luxury store flagships. $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY $BURBY $PPRUY $RL www.ft.com/content/5731...
November 19, 2025 at 1:37 PM
London's prime housing may be in a tail spin but it is still the go-to destination for luxury store flagships. $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY $BURBY $PPRUY $RL www.ft.com/content/5731...
$TJX rocks in all economic seasons, strong or weak. Comp accelerated 100bp in Q3, on 300bp acceleration in US Marmaxx stores to +6%, while US home stores strong +5%. Treasure hunt, share gains help but also pointer consumer not down & out. $TGT $HD $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
November 19, 2025 at 1:05 PM
$TJX rocks in all economic seasons, strong or weak. Comp accelerated 100bp in Q3, on 300bp acceleration in US Marmaxx stores to +6%, while US home stores strong +5%. Treasure hunt, share gains help but also pointer consumer not down & out. $TGT $HD $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
Target stock/expectations already on floor but clearly deep market share losses to Walmart, Amazon etc. Despite inflation, food sales barely up while household essentials (detergent etc) are DOWN. Beauty just about up but $ULTA glow about to fade. 🤮 $TGT $WMT $AMZN $DG $XLY $XLF
November 19, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Target stock/expectations already on floor but clearly deep market share losses to Walmart, Amazon etc. Despite inflation, food sales barely up while household essentials (detergent etc) are DOWN. Beauty just about up but $ULTA glow about to fade. 🤮 $TGT $WMT $AMZN $DG $XLY $XLF
Expectations lower post Depot, but Lowes reassuring. Relatively rare but $LOW out-comped $HD by 30bp & points to positive November comp despite storm hit. While guide lowered modestly, this seems largely expectations management/deal related $XLY $XLF
November 19, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Expectations lower post Depot, but Lowes reassuring. Relatively rare but $LOW out-comped $HD by 30bp & points to positive November comp despite storm hit. While guide lowered modestly, this seems largely expectations management/deal related $XLY $XLF
In similar vein, here’s Depot CEO saying ‘ex-storms’ Q3 demand was identical to Q2. And that storm compares will be just as tough in Q4, so this isn’t a downgrade of $HD demand view. Hello Mr Weatherman 💁 $LOW $XLY $XLF
November 18, 2025 at 9:37 PM
In similar vein, here’s Depot CEO saying ‘ex-storms’ Q3 demand was identical to Q2. And that storm compares will be just as tough in Q4, so this isn’t a downgrade of $HD demand view. Hello Mr Weatherman 💁 $LOW $XLY $XLF
Here Depot tries to explain very weak Q4 guide. Modest deleverage from a point of weaker comp but largely down to much worse outlook for SRS & dilution from GMS. Not entirely convincing but $HD basically saying don’t base 2026 forecasts on this Q4. $LOW $XLY $XLF
November 18, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Here Depot tries to explain very weak Q4 guide. Modest deleverage from a point of weaker comp but largely down to much worse outlook for SRS & dilution from GMS. Not entirely convincing but $HD basically saying don’t base 2026 forecasts on this Q4. $LOW $XLY $XLF
Housing-related (& not exactly on fire before this Q) but Depot first major US retailer to point to demand chinks. Blames Q3 shortfall on 'storms' but also cites weaker demand. Implied Q4 guide $2.49 vs street at $2.92 🫢 $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY $AMZN $WMT
November 18, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Housing-related (& not exactly on fire before this Q) but Depot first major US retailer to point to demand chinks. Blames Q3 shortfall on 'storms' but also cites weaker demand. Implied Q4 guide $2.49 vs street at $2.92 🫢 $HD $LOW $XLF $XLY $AMZN $WMT
In latest evidence of luxury uptick, Richemont Watch & Other divisions (not in Cartier league) grew in Q3. Always take periodic calls of 'death of bling' with pinch of salt. Luxury huge up-cycle during Covid needed to be digested. Back to normalised growth. $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY
November 14, 2025 at 1:12 PM
In latest evidence of luxury uptick, Richemont Watch & Other divisions (not in Cartier league) grew in Q3. Always take periodic calls of 'death of bling' with pinch of salt. Luxury huge up-cycle during Covid needed to be digested. Back to normalised growth. $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY
Cartier true jewel in luxury, driving Richemont to top. Jewellery still in sweetest of spots with big unbranded segment. But note what $CFRUY says about US consumer: this isn't just pre-tariff buying. US sales have now been up 10%+ for seven straight Qs. 💪 $LVMUY $HESAY
November 14, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Cartier true jewel in luxury, driving Richemont to top. Jewellery still in sweetest of spots with big unbranded segment. But note what $CFRUY says about US consumer: this isn't just pre-tariff buying. US sales have now been up 10%+ for seven straight Qs. 💪 $LVMUY $HESAY