Rahul Sharma
@retailguru.bsky.social
Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice...
November 21, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Hard truths ahead of UK Budget from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com @financialtimes.com. Likely to increase burden on top earners but those 'broad shoulders' already live in a country with most progressive tax system in West & have been squeezed most in recent years. ft.com/content/75ce...
November 21, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Hard truths ahead of UK Budget from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com @financialtimes.com. Likely to increase burden on top earners but those 'broad shoulders' already live in a country with most progressive tax system in West & have been squeezed most in recent years. ft.com/content/75ce...
October Swiss watch exports to US plummeted 47%, led by watches priced > $3000. Ex-US, +3% confirming nascent recovery seen at Richemont, led by China. Post new 15% tariff deal, US will pick up once shipments brought in on old tariff rates exhausted $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY #luxury
November 21, 2025 at 3:51 PM
October Swiss watch exports to US plummeted 47%, led by watches priced > $3000. Ex-US, +3% confirming nascent recovery seen at Richemont, led by China. Post new 15% tariff deal, US will pick up once shipments brought in on old tariff rates exhausted $CFRUY $HESAY $LVMUY #luxury
Note with this almost all the biggest US retailers have reported for Q ended October plus updated on November-to-date so this vantage point is pretty comprehensive. US retail reports scary early! $WMT $TGT $AMZN $HD $LOW $WSM $TJX $ROST $MCD $XLY $XLF $MA $JPM $BAC
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
November 21, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Note with this almost all the biggest US retailers have reported for Q ended October plus updated on November-to-date so this vantage point is pretty comprehensive. US retail reports scary early! $WMT $TGT $AMZN $HD $LOW $WSM $TJX $ROST $MCD $XLY $XLF $MA $JPM $BAC
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
November 21, 2025 at 2:19 PM
On heels of $TJX, $WMT & $WSM (plus Mastercard, $JPM, $BAC), $GAP & Ross latest to confirm Q3 acceleration, strong full-price selling & start to Holiday. Old Navy a pointer even lower end not as stressed. Panic over restaurants clearly premature. $MCD $XLY $AMZN $XLF $ROST
Walmart on tariffs: impact lower than expected. Select price increases & growth in areas like fashion offset it. In food only beef seeing pressure. Welcome recent relief on foodstuffs not grown in US with open arms which was clearly moronic. $WMT $AMZN $TGT $XLY $XLI
November 20, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Walmart on tariffs: impact lower than expected. Select price increases & growth in areas like fashion offset it. In food only beef seeing pressure. Welcome recent relief on foodstuffs not grown in US with open arms which was clearly moronic. $WMT $AMZN $TGT $XLY $XLI
Walmart CFO echoes outgoing CEO; expects Q4 to be consistent with YTD. Strong start to Holiday & portents from Back-2-School & other events are good. This is America’s #3 discretionary retailer & #1 retailer overall. $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Walmart CFO echoes outgoing CEO; expects Q4 to be consistent with YTD. Strong start to Holiday & portents from Back-2-School & other events are good. This is America’s #3 discretionary retailer & #1 retailer overall. $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
McMillon going out on high at Walmart & very upbeat. Points to gains across income cohorts with no US deceleration even with some more weakness at lower end. Consistent through Q & strong in discretionary area, advertising & web driving profit. 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 6:52 PM
McMillon going out on high at Walmart & very upbeat. Points to gains across income cohorts with no US deceleration even with some more weakness at lower end. Consistent through Q & strong in discretionary area, advertising & web driving profit. 🔥 $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
Mastercard says US consumer healthy into November. On specific question re lower end, points to consistent trends across board. Data like this won't predict turning points but world a lot steadier than feverish commentator talk. $MA $V $JPM $XLF $XLY $WMT $AMZN $WSM $TJX
November 20, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Mastercard says US consumer healthy into November. On specific question re lower end, points to consistent trends across board. Data like this won't predict turning points but world a lot steadier than feverish commentator talk. $MA $V $JPM $XLF $XLY $WMT $AMZN $WSM $TJX
Ok so $BBWI has a new CEO so he's setting his scene. But anyone else note the cognitive dissonance or frankly even mendacity here. Blame weakness on macro pressures & then list gazillion retail basics to improve that you're currently screwing up 😉
November 20, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Ok so $BBWI has a new CEO so he's setting his scene. But anyone else note the cognitive dissonance or frankly even mendacity here. Blame weakness on macro pressures & then list gazillion retail basics to improve that you're currently screwing up 😉
You can critique Target heavily only because of its better disclosure. But contrast grocery down 1% at $TGT vs +2-3% at $WMT. But discretionary goods at $TGT also fully 500+bp lower, even worse given Walmart sells 2X more discretionary goods by dollars. $AMZN
November 20, 2025 at 1:09 PM
You can critique Target heavily only because of its better disclosure. But contrast grocery down 1% at $TGT vs +2-3% at $WMT. But discretionary goods at $TGT also fully 500+bp lower, even worse given Walmart sells 2X more discretionary goods by dollars. $AMZN
Walmart US comp steady but web accelerated 200bp to +28% (also seen at $AMZN). Web now 21% of $WMT sales vs just 12% in 2022. Quarterly web sales $s now 25% of $AMZN US. Advertising stellar +53%. Spare a thought for Target, under 5% of $AMZN, up only 2%. Awful. 😣 $TGT $XLY $XRT
Walmart knocks it out of park. Reassures on consumer, up across staples & discretionary. Margin up, inventory down 1 to 45 days. Web, advertising both accelerated. Stock is up there but lot to like on $WMT & consumer. $HD, $MCD not signals they looked. $WSM $MA $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Walmart US comp steady but web accelerated 200bp to +28% (also seen at $AMZN). Web now 21% of $WMT sales vs just 12% in 2022. Quarterly web sales $s now 25% of $AMZN US. Advertising stellar +53%. Spare a thought for Target, under 5% of $AMZN, up only 2%. Awful. 😣 $TGT $XLY $XRT
Walmart US supercenter comp accelerated on 4-year stack on traffic acceleration. Unlike margin deleverage last Q, EBIT grew faster. $WMT saw strength across store in positive sign on consumer. Also notes as at $TGT & $TJX, non-food prices rising on tariffs. $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Walmart US supercenter comp accelerated on 4-year stack on traffic acceleration. Unlike margin deleverage last Q, EBIT grew faster. $WMT saw strength across store in positive sign on consumer. Also notes as at $TGT & $TJX, non-food prices rising on tariffs. $XLY $XLF
Walmart knocks it out of park. Reassures on consumer, up across staples & discretionary. Margin up, inventory down 1 to 45 days. Web, advertising both accelerated. Stock is up there but lot to like on $WMT & consumer. $HD, $MCD not signals they looked. $WSM $MA $XLY $XLF
November 20, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Walmart knocks it out of park. Reassures on consumer, up across staples & discretionary. Margin up, inventory down 1 to 45 days. Web, advertising both accelerated. Stock is up there but lot to like on $WMT & consumer. $HD, $MCD not signals they looked. $WSM $MA $XLY $XLF
$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY
November 19, 2025 at 9:24 PM
$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY
$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY
November 19, 2025 at 9:21 PM
$TJX says a large chunk of comp driven by price as it followed price rises taken by other retailers. May be hard to spot in inflation numbers but US consumers having to pay for tariffs. $M $KSS $WMT $TGT $XLY
Old habits die hard. Despite all the turmoil & under-performance, Target executives droned on with their prepared script for most of the call as usual leaving relatively little time for questions. 🤷♂️ $TGT
Cornell runs a long victory lap in his only real contribution to Target call. And ends with what has to be one of the greatest under-statements of the year… $TGT 🤣
November 19, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Old habits die hard. Despite all the turmoil & under-performance, Target executives droned on with their prepared script for most of the call as usual leaving relatively little time for questions. 🤷♂️ $TGT
Cornell runs a long victory lap in his only real contribution to Target call. And ends with what has to be one of the greatest under-statements of the year… $TGT 🤣
November 19, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Cornell runs a long victory lap in his only real contribution to Target call. And ends with what has to be one of the greatest under-statements of the year… $TGT 🤣
Sensing some street angst on $WSM (what's new 🤷♂️) on Sonoma suggesting big reset in '26 on tariffs. Note for all Q3 'benefit' talk, merch margin only +50bp. Yes tariff hit gets bigger. But coupled with continued lower promos & usual Holiday caution, feels overblown.
November 19, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Sensing some street angst on $WSM (what's new 🤷♂️) on Sonoma suggesting big reset in '26 on tariffs. Note for all Q3 'benefit' talk, merch margin only +50bp. Yes tariff hit gets bigger. But coupled with continued lower promos & usual Holiday caution, feels overblown.
Here Sonoma lays out what makes $WSM brands special. Contrast to Depot/Lowes, furniture moving DESPITE housing. Several years into lower promos, selling margin still up big, not just tariff timing but price rises & crucially product resonating with consumers $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF
November 19, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Here Sonoma lays out what makes $WSM brands special. Contrast to Depot/Lowes, furniture moving DESPITE housing. Several years into lower promos, selling margin still up big, not just tariff timing but price rises & crucially product resonating with consumers $HD $LOW $XLY $XLF
If you had to pick a blemish, inventory at 132 days, up 2 on last year but offsetting that, Sonoma full-price sell-thru excellent. And $WSM has still added nearly $60million to net cash over past year despite inventory outflows & buying back stock worth $830million. 🔥
For ages street & plenty here said $WSM is going to $AMZN-ed, will crater after Covid boost blah blah. Now despite being hard-hit by tariffs, big ticket better at Pottery Barn, newness driving West Elm & Q4-heavy Williams Sonoma accelerating to 7%. Something special here folks.
Step back from regular thrashing that Sonoma gets whatever earnings release says & again, head & shoulders above almost anyone in retail. Strong sales. Check. Strong margin check. Continuing to take itself slowly private. Check. Alber & $WSM are a machine. 💪
November 19, 2025 at 5:02 PM
If you had to pick a blemish, inventory at 132 days, up 2 on last year but offsetting that, Sonoma full-price sell-thru excellent. And $WSM has still added nearly $60million to net cash over past year despite inventory outflows & buying back stock worth $830million. 🔥
For ages street & plenty here said $WSM is going to $AMZN-ed, will crater after Covid boost blah blah. Now despite being hard-hit by tariffs, big ticket better at Pottery Barn, newness driving West Elm & Q4-heavy Williams Sonoma accelerating to 7%. Something special here folks.
Step back from regular thrashing that Sonoma gets whatever earnings release says & again, head & shoulders above almost anyone in retail. Strong sales. Check. Strong margin check. Continuing to take itself slowly private. Check. Alber & $WSM are a machine. 💪
November 19, 2025 at 4:56 PM
For ages street & plenty here said $WSM is going to $AMZN-ed, will crater after Covid boost blah blah. Now despite being hard-hit by tariffs, big ticket better at Pottery Barn, newness driving West Elm & Q4-heavy Williams Sonoma accelerating to 7%. Something special here folks.
Step back from regular thrashing that Sonoma gets whatever earnings release says & again, head & shoulders above almost anyone in retail. Strong sales. Check. Strong margin check. Continuing to take itself slowly private. Check. Alber & $WSM are a machine. 💪
November 19, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Step back from regular thrashing that Sonoma gets whatever earnings release says & again, head & shoulders above almost anyone in retail. Strong sales. Check. Strong margin check. Continuing to take itself slowly private. Check. Alber & $WSM are a machine. 💪
London's prime housing may be in a tail spin but it is still the go-to destination for luxury store flagships. $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY $BURBY $PPRUY $RL www.ft.com/content/5731...
November 19, 2025 at 1:37 PM
London's prime housing may be in a tail spin but it is still the go-to destination for luxury store flagships. $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY $BURBY $PPRUY $RL www.ft.com/content/5731...
$TJX rocks in all economic seasons, strong or weak. Comp accelerated 100bp in Q3, on 300bp acceleration in US Marmaxx stores to +6%, while US home stores strong +5%. Treasure hunt, share gains help but also pointer consumer not down & out. $TGT $HD $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF
November 19, 2025 at 1:05 PM
$TJX rocks in all economic seasons, strong or weak. Comp accelerated 100bp in Q3, on 300bp acceleration in US Marmaxx stores to +6%, while US home stores strong +5%. Treasure hunt, share gains help but also pointer consumer not down & out. $TGT $HD $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF