Brian Scheid
@brianscheid.bsky.social
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Senior Reporter, Global Markets
Senior Reporter, Global Markets
The US government shut down for the longest stretch in American history and the stock market barely noticed
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 12, 2025 at 10:18 PM
The US government shut down for the longest stretch in American history and the stock market barely noticed
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Reposted by Brian Scheid
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Stock market's bull run collides with volatility
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 5, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Stock market's bull run collides with volatility
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
November 3, 2025 at 2:13 PM
New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
NatAlliance Securities' Andrew Brenner thinks December's Fed rate cut is still likely, but could be the last until June
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
NatAlliance Securities' Andrew Brenner thinks December's Fed rate cut is still likely, but could be the last until June
Reposted by Brian Scheid
One of the largest distributors of print books for libraries is shutting down causing major issues for libraries.
🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...
🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...
Libraries Scramble for Books After Giant Distributor Shuts Down
Why it might have been and may continue to be harder to get new releases from your local library.
www.404media.co
October 30, 2025 at 2:18 PM
One of the largest distributors of print books for libraries is shutting down causing major issues for libraries.
🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...
🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...
The end of QT
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 30, 2025 at 5:09 PM
The end of QT
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Chairman Powell on Fed's next rate move without government jobs, inflation data during shutdown:
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."
October 29, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Chairman Powell on Fed's next rate move without government jobs, inflation data during shutdown:
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."
Fed set to cut rates again as policy path darkens during shutdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 28, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Fed set to cut rates again as policy path darkens during shutdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
When will tariffs bite?
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 27, 2025 at 1:42 PM
When will tariffs bite?
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US dollar's historic slide on pause due to lack of government data
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 23, 2025 at 2:07 PM
US dollar's historic slide on pause due to lack of government data
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Is the US labor market really weakening?
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 13, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Is the US labor market really weakening?
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke (channeling Rumsfeld) on megacap tech:
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."
October 8, 2025 at 2:33 PM
JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke (channeling Rumsfeld) on megacap tech:
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."
The US government shutdown has so far been a non event in the Treasury market, but as it drags on fixed income investors could lose sight of the state of inflation and jobs:
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
The US government shutdown has so far been a non event in the Treasury market, but as it drags on fixed income investors could lose sight of the state of inflation and jobs:
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US construction job openings have sunk to the lowest level in more than eight years as a sudden spike in workers quitting has taken place, both signs the industry is straining under the weight of tariffs, high mortgage rates and an ongoing immigration crackdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM
US construction job openings have sunk to the lowest level in more than eight years as a sudden spike in workers quitting has taken place, both signs the industry is straining under the weight of tariffs, high mortgage rates and an ongoing immigration crackdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US added 60k jobs in Sept, according to new data from Revelio Public Labor Statistics
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
October 2, 2025 at 12:46 PM
US added 60k jobs in Sept, according to new data from Revelio Public Labor Statistics
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
After a strong first half of 2025, global share buybacks slowed in the third quarter amid new US tariffs and historically high stock valuations
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
September 30, 2025 at 1:45 PM
After a strong first half of 2025, global share buybacks slowed in the third quarter amid new US tariffs and historically high stock valuations
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"A more stretched consumer"
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
September 29, 2025 at 2:03 PM
"A more stretched consumer"
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US consumers continue to spend, but are increasingly digging into savings to cover rising costs, a sign that the persistently robust domestic economy could be on shaky ground as the impacts of tariffs take root
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Bubble risk with US tech stocks seen as relatively high, but lower than 2021 fears: Deutsche Bank Research
"Back then, zero rates were one of the main justification for high tech valuations. That valuation prop ultimately got shattered and tech stocks slumped before AI came along."
"Back then, zero rates were one of the main justification for high tech valuations. That valuation prop ultimately got shattered and tech stocks slumped before AI came along."
September 25, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Bubble risk with US tech stocks seen as relatively high, but lower than 2021 fears: Deutsche Bank Research
"Back then, zero rates were one of the main justification for high tech valuations. That valuation prop ultimately got shattered and tech stocks slumped before AI came along."
"Back then, zero rates were one of the main justification for high tech valuations. That valuation prop ultimately got shattered and tech stocks slumped before AI came along."
Fed Vice Chair Bowman says Fed "at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions. Should these conditions continue, I am concerned that we will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward."
September 23, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Fed Vice Chair Bowman says Fed "at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions. Should these conditions continue, I am concerned that we will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward."
One of the worst US dollar runs in decades could still get worse
"I don't think we've seen the bottom just yet," Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I don't think we've seen the bottom just yet," Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
September 23, 2025 at 1:54 PM
One of the worst US dollar runs in decades could still get worse
"I don't think we've seen the bottom just yet," Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I don't think we've seen the bottom just yet," Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Is the Fed quietly abandoning its 2% inflation target?
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
September 18, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Is the Fed quietly abandoning its 2% inflation target?
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The assumption is that the three cuts this year … are enough to head off labor market weakness," said @peark.es. "But they can't forecast more cuts with inflation still above target." www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
September 18, 2025 at 1:13 PM
"The assumption is that the three cuts this year … are enough to head off labor market weakness," said @peark.es. "But they can't forecast more cuts with inflation still above target." www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Reposted by Brian Scheid
Fed’s Powell: “We have a situation where we have two sided risk and that means there's no risk free path, and so it's quite a different difficult situation for policy makers. And it's not at all surprising to me that you have a range of views.”
September 17, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Fed’s Powell: “We have a situation where we have two sided risk and that means there's no risk free path, and so it's quite a different difficult situation for policy makers. And it's not at all surprising to me that you have a range of views.”
Fed readies 1st rate cut of 2025, boosting risk of pushing inflation higher
"It's an unclear path for sure," said Luke Tilley, chief economist of Wilmington Trust
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"It's an unclear path for sure," said Luke Tilley, chief economist of Wilmington Trust
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
September 16, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Fed readies 1st rate cut of 2025, boosting risk of pushing inflation higher
"It's an unclear path for sure," said Luke Tilley, chief economist of Wilmington Trust
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"It's an unclear path for sure," said Luke Tilley, chief economist of Wilmington Trust
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...