Brian Scheid
@brianscheid.bsky.social
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Senior Reporter, Global Markets
Senior Reporter, Global Markets
Today's Fed Beige Book:
"A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."
"A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."
November 26, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Today's Fed Beige Book:
"A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."
"A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring."
Reposted by Brian Scheid
Beige Book word counts: uncertainty continues to fall as focus on tariffs declines, while labor markets offer a very mixed picture. Hiring was mentioned near the most frequently on record but layoff mentions also accelerating; that latter indicator has worked as a recession indicator historically.
November 26, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Beige Book word counts: uncertainty continues to fall as focus on tariffs declines, while labor markets offer a very mixed picture. Hiring was mentioned near the most frequently on record but layoff mentions also accelerating; that latter indicator has worked as a recession indicator historically.
A K-shaped economy runs into the US holiday spending season:
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 24, 2025 at 2:25 PM
A K-shaped economy runs into the US holiday spending season:
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Some may choose to use high-cost consumer credit to get through the holiday season. But others may choose to economize and scale down the holiday season spending."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Goldman Sachs:
"Only 29% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, compared to a 37% average since 2007. In an attempt to keep up with benchmarks, equity mutual funds have reduced their cash balances to just 1.2% of assets, a record low."
"Only 29% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, compared to a 37% average since 2007. In an attempt to keep up with benchmarks, equity mutual funds have reduced their cash balances to just 1.2% of assets, a record low."
November 22, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Goldman Sachs:
"Only 29% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, compared to a 37% average since 2007. In an attempt to keep up with benchmarks, equity mutual funds have reduced their cash balances to just 1.2% of assets, a record low."
"Only 29% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, compared to a 37% average since 2007. In an attempt to keep up with benchmarks, equity mutual funds have reduced their cash balances to just 1.2% of assets, a record low."
High unemployment for younger, Black workers may decide Fed's next rate move
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 20, 2025 at 8:38 PM
High unemployment for younger, Black workers may decide Fed's next rate move
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"That is likely an indicator of broader labor market weakness down the road, or given the lag, maybe now," says @deanbaker13.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Factors that Fed officials believe are contributing to the slowdown in US job creation, per minutes of Oct. FOMC meeting:
-Lower immigration
-Lower labor force participation
-Moderate economic growth
-Elevated uncertainty
-AI investments boosting productivity
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
-Lower immigration
-Lower labor force participation
-Moderate economic growth
-Elevated uncertainty
-AI investments boosting productivity
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
November 19, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Factors that Fed officials believe are contributing to the slowdown in US job creation, per minutes of Oct. FOMC meeting:
-Lower immigration
-Lower labor force participation
-Moderate economic growth
-Elevated uncertainty
-AI investments boosting productivity
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
-Lower immigration
-Lower labor force participation
-Moderate economic growth
-Elevated uncertainty
-AI investments boosting productivity
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...
"Beyond shaping market sentiment, any outsized post-earnings move in the stock could meaningfully sway the U.S. benchmark: Nvidia is the S&P 500’s largest constituent, and its 7.8% weight in the index is over 4.5 times that of the entire Materials sector."
- Benedek Vörös w/ S&P Dow Jones Indices
- Benedek Vörös w/ S&P Dow Jones Indices
November 19, 2025 at 2:35 PM
"Beyond shaping market sentiment, any outsized post-earnings move in the stock could meaningfully sway the U.S. benchmark: Nvidia is the S&P 500’s largest constituent, and its 7.8% weight in the index is over 4.5 times that of the entire Materials sector."
- Benedek Vörös w/ S&P Dow Jones Indices
- Benedek Vörös w/ S&P Dow Jones Indices
“The very thing powering the stock market to records might be gnawing away at Americans’ sense of well being.”
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
The Most Joyless Tech Revolution Ever: AI Is Making Us Rich and Unhappy
Discomfort around artificial intelligence helps explain the disconnect between a solid economy and an anxious public.
www.wsj.com
November 18, 2025 at 3:26 PM
“The very thing powering the stock market to records might be gnawing away at Americans’ sense of well being.”
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
The US government shut down for the longest stretch in American history and the stock market barely noticed
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 12, 2025 at 10:18 PM
The US government shut down for the longest stretch in American history and the stock market barely noticed
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The bull market isn't over. More new highs are coming, but cracks have developed beneath the surface, and that's a story for 2026."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Reposted by Brian Scheid
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Stock market's bull run collides with volatility
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 5, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Stock market's bull run collides with volatility
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Each of those developments in the derivatives space are noteworthy by themselves but not necessarily a reason to panic, however simultaneously combined, they are a more meaningful source of concern"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
November 3, 2025 at 2:13 PM
New US jobs data?
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
Goldman Sachs economists see US govt shutdown ending in mid-Nov with BLS releasing the September jobs report within a few days, possibly never releasing the October jobs report and then putting out the November jobs report on time or within a week delay
NatAlliance Securities' Andrew Brenner thinks December's Fed rate cut is still likely, but could be the last until June
November 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
NatAlliance Securities' Andrew Brenner thinks December's Fed rate cut is still likely, but could be the last until June
Reposted by Brian Scheid
One of the largest distributors of print books for libraries is shutting down causing major issues for libraries.
🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...
🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...
Libraries Scramble for Books After Giant Distributor Shuts Down
Why it might have been and may continue to be harder to get new releases from your local library.
www.404media.co
October 30, 2025 at 2:18 PM
One of the largest distributors of print books for libraries is shutting down causing major issues for libraries.
🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...
🔗 www.404media.co/libraries-sc...
The end of QT
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 30, 2025 at 5:09 PM
The end of QT
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Normally, risk appetite rejoices when the Fed pulls forward ... but in this case it might be more a sigh of relief that the Fed is taking note of repo strains"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Chairman Powell on Fed's next rate move without government jobs, inflation data during shutdown:
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."
October 29, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Chairman Powell on Fed's next rate move without government jobs, inflation data during shutdown:
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."
"What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down."
Fed set to cut rates again as policy path darkens during shutdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 28, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Fed set to cut rates again as policy path darkens during shutdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
When will tariffs bite?
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 27, 2025 at 1:42 PM
When will tariffs bite?
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
-Realized tariff rate ~10% (18% forecast)
-Effects weaker, delayed on pricing power, demand concerns
-Cost increases passed slowly
-Most price increases have been one offs
-Little sign of spillage into services
-Effects could hit within 3 mos
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US dollar's historic slide on pause due to lack of government data
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 23, 2025 at 2:07 PM
US dollar's historic slide on pause due to lack of government data
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Having less data to price in has been positive for the dollar's recovery"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Is the US labor market really weakening?
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 13, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Is the US labor market really weakening?
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Maybe not, according to some new measures of the market's breakeven rate: www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke (channeling Rumsfeld) on megacap tech:
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."
October 8, 2025 at 2:33 PM
JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke (channeling Rumsfeld) on megacap tech:
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."
"This market is pricing in what it believes to be the known knowns. There is little to no discounting for the known unknowns, and there is absolutely no discounting for unknown unknowns that are only revealed when it is too late."
The US government shutdown has so far been a non event in the Treasury market, but as it drags on fixed income investors could lose sight of the state of inflation and jobs:
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
The US government shutdown has so far been a non event in the Treasury market, but as it drags on fixed income investors could lose sight of the state of inflation and jobs:
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US construction job openings have sunk to the lowest level in more than eight years as a sudden spike in workers quitting has taken place, both signs the industry is straining under the weight of tariffs, high mortgage rates and an ongoing immigration crackdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
October 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM
US construction job openings have sunk to the lowest level in more than eight years as a sudden spike in workers quitting has taken place, both signs the industry is straining under the weight of tariffs, high mortgage rates and an ongoing immigration crackdown
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
US added 60k jobs in Sept, according to new data from Revelio Public Labor Statistics
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
October 2, 2025 at 12:46 PM
US added 60k jobs in Sept, according to new data from Revelio Public Labor Statistics
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
Ed and health services: +45.6K
Retail: +40.1K
Leisure & hospitality: -34.2K
Govt's Sept. jobs report, to be released tmrw, delayed indefinitely due to shutdown www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...
After a strong first half of 2025, global share buybacks slowed in the third quarter amid new US tariffs and historically high stock valuations
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
September 30, 2025 at 1:45 PM
After a strong first half of 2025, global share buybacks slowed in the third quarter amid new US tariffs and historically high stock valuations
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...