Erika McEntarfer
@erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
Former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ex-Council of Economic Advisers, Census, Treasury. Current: Distinguished policy fellow at Stanford/SIEPR. Opinions my own.
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
The Employment Cost Index shows continued deceleration in compensation growth in Q4. All metrics of wage growth are slowing even as inflation has gotten stuck confirming that labor demand < greatly reduced labor supply
February 10, 2026 at 1:58 PM
The Employment Cost Index shows continued deceleration in compensation growth in Q4. All metrics of wage growth are slowing even as inflation has gotten stuck confirming that labor demand < greatly reduced labor supply
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
Total banger, highly recommend.
youtu.be/yZaXnlp0bxU?...
youtu.be/yZaXnlp0bxU?...
Current Employment Statistics monthly revisions and annual benchmarking explained, February 2025
YouTube video by BLS Videos
youtu.be
February 10, 2026 at 2:42 AM
Total banger, highly recommend.
youtu.be/yZaXnlp0bxU?...
youtu.be/yZaXnlp0bxU?...
Since finsky's data-watchers have some extra time on their hands in advance of the CES benchmark revision, let me recommend this video explainer BLS released last February:
www.bls.gov/video/?video...
www.bls.gov/video/?video...
Videos : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
www.bls.gov
February 4, 2026 at 7:47 PM
Since finsky's data-watchers have some extra time on their hands in advance of the CES benchmark revision, let me recommend this video explainer BLS released last February:
www.bls.gov/video/?video...
www.bls.gov/video/?video...
These are challenging times for writing an economic policy look-ahead for 2026, but we did our best. Key issues to keep an eye on for the year ahead: AI, the labor market, and rising health care and energy costs.
🧵New SIEPR Policy Brief looks at the U.S. #economy's biggest risks and opportunities to shed light on what could go right or wrong in 2026, from SIEPR's Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social, @nealemahoney.bsky.social and Erika McEntarfer. Read in link 👇
January 29, 2026 at 10:43 PM
These are challenging times for writing an economic policy look-ahead for 2026, but we did our best. Key issues to keep an eye on for the year ahead: AI, the labor market, and rising health care and energy costs.
Kudos to Census staff here, making methodological improvements in how they distributed recent immigration waves across the country (now using immigration court data instead of historical patterns) while down ~20% staff from DOGE separations.
Big immigration decline.
Agreement among different agencies' estimates.
Downward adjustments coming soon to the CPS.
And revisions to state populations: New York up, Florida down.
Key takeaways from today's new Census population estimates for 2025.
jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea...
Agreement among different agencies' estimates.
Downward adjustments coming soon to the CPS.
And revisions to state populations: New York up, Florida down.
Key takeaways from today's new Census population estimates for 2025.
jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea...
Four takeaways from the new Census population estimates
Immigration declined dramatically. Census estimates now align with other government estimates. The 2026 Current Population Survey population base will be adjusted downward.
jedkolko.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 7:58 PM
Kudos to Census staff here, making methodological improvements in how they distributed recent immigration waves across the country (now using immigration court data instead of historical patterns) while down ~20% staff from DOGE separations.
I love riding around the Bay Area in Waymos to admire the tech and also speculate endlessly on how much this ride actually costs
It's very funny talking with all the self-driving industry people where I rave about how I used to live in Phoenix and the Waymos were so cool and just hearing "yeah, super cool, want to guess how much of the Alphabet ads business gold mine is used to keep it above water?"
January 27, 2026 at 6:29 PM
I love riding around the Bay Area in Waymos to admire the tech and also speculate endlessly on how much this ride actually costs
It would be a very good idea to allow BLS to collect monthly employment/unemployment and price data during a shutdown. This isn't a good moment to turn the navigation signals off on the US economy again.
PIMCO: “.. What looked unlikely – another government shutdown – suddenly looks very likely .. However, this time-around, it would (only) be the Labor Department-related data that would be impacted (e.g., payrolls, CPI), not GDP or PCE, given the Commerce Dept has been funded through end of FY 2026.”
January 26, 2026 at 7:24 PM
It would be a very good idea to allow BLS to collect monthly employment/unemployment and price data during a shutdown. This isn't a good moment to turn the navigation signals off on the US economy again.
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
Census releases 2025 population & immigration estimates next Tuesday.
Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.
Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.
Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
January 20, 2026 at 8:13 PM
Census releases 2025 population & immigration estimates next Tuesday.
Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.
Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.
Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**.
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
January 13, 2026 at 5:41 PM
With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**.
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Several times this fall I was on a long-haul flight with a packed first class, business class, and economy plus sections while I had a row to myself back in economy
Main Cabin (everything below first/business class) revenues -7% YoY while Premium (first/business) +9% is really wild.
January 13, 2026 at 2:35 PM
Several times this fall I was on a long-haul flight with a packed first class, business class, and economy plus sections while I had a row to myself back in economy
We really did start collecting price data because as the US industrialized and more people purchased food and goods with wages there was a lot of fighting about how much wages needed to rise to keep up with the cost of living.
if you want a long read that involves udders, a hot air balloon, and some extremely dubious data on egg prices, the story I’ve been working on for the last few months where I tried to single-handedly take on every government function myself is now online! www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
I Tried to Be the Government. It Did Not Go Well.
My five-month quest to monitor the weather, track inflation, and inspect milk for harmful microorganisms
www.theatlantic.com
January 9, 2026 at 6:00 AM
We really did start collecting price data because as the US industrialized and more people purchased food and goods with wages there was a lot of fighting about how much wages needed to rise to keep up with the cost of living.
This was a great panel, and if you care about economic data, you should definitely listen to the whole thing.
But for those of you who would rather get some highlights, here's what I found most interesting: 🧵
But for those of you who would rather get some highlights, here's what I found most interesting: 🧵
ICYMI: Here's video of the panel -- "The State of Government Economic Statistics" -- that I moderated at the ASSA meetings. Karen Dynan, William Beach, Loretta Mester, Seth Carpenter, and Jed Kolko www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/202...
The State of Government Economic Statistics
www.aeaweb.org
January 6, 2026 at 8:22 PM
This was a great panel, and if you care about economic data, you should definitely listen to the whole thing.
But for those of you who would rather get some highlights, here's what I found most interesting: 🧵
But for those of you who would rather get some highlights, here's what I found most interesting: 🧵
BLS has an FAQ re:shutdown impacts to Nov. CPI released tomorrow. In short, Nov. CPI index values will be calculated by comparing Nov. prices to Oct. prices where available (from alternative/non-survey sources) and Sept. prices otherwise (most prices).
www.bls.gov/cpi/
www.bls.gov/cpi/
CPI Home
www.bls.gov
December 17, 2025 at 9:25 PM
BLS has an FAQ re:shutdown impacts to Nov. CPI released tomorrow. In short, Nov. CPI index values will be calculated by comparing Nov. prices to Oct. prices where available (from alternative/non-survey sources) and Sept. prices otherwise (most prices).
www.bls.gov/cpi/
www.bls.gov/cpi/
There was some speculation recently that the DRP wouldn’t be this big a drag on October’s NFP print but those estimates from OPM last summer turned out to be pretty accurate.
The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports.
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
www.reuters.com
December 16, 2025 at 2:35 PM
There was some speculation recently that the DRP wouldn’t be this big a drag on October’s NFP print but those estimates from OPM last summer turned out to be pretty accurate.
Confess I had not thought through the implications of no data collection in Oct. for Nov.'s jobs report until I read BLS's FAQ.
1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov.
2)above clearly has implications for
1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov.
2)above clearly has implications for
Can't actually find this on the BLS site, suggests we should be cautious on HH survey numbers (eg unemp rate) until '26
*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.
*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.
December 15, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Confess I had not thought through the implications of no data collection in Oct. for Nov.'s jobs report until I read BLS's FAQ.
1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov.
2)above clearly has implications for
1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov.
2)above clearly has implications for
This was also my take-away from the Sept jobs print. If payroll prints are trending down only because of labor supply (immigration) the unemployment rate should be trending down or steady, not heading up. Unemployment up means demand is slackening more than supply
*WILLIAMS: DATA SHOW LABOR DEMAND HAS SOFTENED MORE THAN SUPPLY
*WILLIAMS: DOWNSIDE EMPLOYMENT RISKS HAVE RISEN IN RECENT MONTHS
*WILLIAMS: MUST HIT 2% INFLATION WITHOUT CAUSING UNDUE JOBS RISK
*WILLIAMS: DOWNSIDE EMPLOYMENT RISKS HAVE RISEN IN RECENT MONTHS
*WILLIAMS: MUST HIT 2% INFLATION WITHOUT CAUSING UNDUE JOBS RISK
December 15, 2025 at 4:15 PM
This was also my take-away from the Sept jobs print. If payroll prints are trending down only because of labor supply (immigration) the unemployment rate should be trending down or steady, not heading up. Unemployment up means demand is slackening more than supply
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
Fed's Williams: Official government data is the gold standard.
December 15, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Fed's Williams: Official government data is the gold standard.
A nice thread from Guy on JP's comments yesterday on NFP growth being overstated.
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
An explainer for Fed Chair Powell's comment about nonfarm payroll growth being overstated, which IMHO is being blown out of proportion:
1/ In yesterday's press conference, Powell said there is an overcount of ~60K/month in NFP, which has set off a new round of hyperventilation.
1/ In yesterday's press conference, Powell said there is an overcount of ~60K/month in NFP, which has set off a new round of hyperventilation.
December 11, 2025 at 7:17 PM
A nice thread from Guy on JP's comments yesterday on NFP growth being overstated.
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
Bulldogs have two modes: 1. snoring adorably, 2. barking at you until you open the treat jar
December 6, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Bulldogs have two modes: 1. snoring adorably, 2. barking at you until you open the treat jar
So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
November 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM
So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
BLS confirms that October jobs report will not be released, but that October payroll numbers will be published with the November report
November 19, 2025 at 5:46 PM
BLS confirms that October jobs report will not be released, but that October payroll numbers will be published with the November report
When Canada tried this is was a data disaster for large swaths of the country
November 18, 2025 at 10:32 PM
When Canada tried this is was a data disaster for large swaths of the country
While everyone is still digesting how it feels to not see a Sept jobs report until late November, remember this feeling the next time folks complain about monthly revisions and suggest publishing data with a 2 or 3 month lag.
November 18, 2025 at 12:04 AM
While everyone is still digesting how it feels to not see a Sept jobs report until late November, remember this feeling the next time folks complain about monthly revisions and suggest publishing data with a 2 or 3 month lag.
All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.
October jobs data may never be released, White House says
October jobs data may never be released, White House says
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been unable to collect price data and employment information during the record-breaking government shutdown.
dlvr.it
November 12, 2025 at 8:25 PM
All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.
The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports.
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
www.reuters.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports.
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...