Erika McEntarfer
@erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
Former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ex-Council of Economic Advisers, Census, Treasury. Current: Distinguished policy fellow at Stanford/SIEPR. Opinions my own.
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
Video of yesterday's "Future of the Fed" panel at the AEA meetings. David Romer, Janet Yellen, Loretta Mester, Anastasios Orphanides. Moderated by Anil Kashyap. videosolutions.mediasite.com/Mediasite/Pl...
January 5, 2026 at 11:41 AM
Video of yesterday's "Future of the Fed" panel at the AEA meetings. David Romer, Janet Yellen, Loretta Mester, Anastasios Orphanides. Moderated by Anil Kashyap. videosolutions.mediasite.com/Mediasite/Pl...
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
Watch livestream of the panel I'm moderating at ASSA assameeting.bsky.social on the state of US government economic statistics on Monday, Jan 5, at 8 AM EST here: www.aeaweb.org/conference/l... #econsky
January 2, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Watch livestream of the panel I'm moderating at ASSA assameeting.bsky.social on the state of US government economic statistics on Monday, Jan 5, at 8 AM EST here: www.aeaweb.org/conference/l... #econsky
BLS has an FAQ re:shutdown impacts to Nov. CPI released tomorrow. In short, Nov. CPI index values will be calculated by comparing Nov. prices to Oct. prices where available (from alternative/non-survey sources) and Sept. prices otherwise (most prices).
www.bls.gov/cpi/
www.bls.gov/cpi/
CPI Home
www.bls.gov
December 17, 2025 at 9:25 PM
BLS has an FAQ re:shutdown impacts to Nov. CPI released tomorrow. In short, Nov. CPI index values will be calculated by comparing Nov. prices to Oct. prices where available (from alternative/non-survey sources) and Sept. prices otherwise (most prices).
www.bls.gov/cpi/
www.bls.gov/cpi/
Adding sailors and mariners to this list. Our lives depend on good marine forecasts. This is so sad.
This is not an exaggeration:
There is not a single weather forecaster, TV meteorologist, airline pilot, computer scientist, or climate scientist in the WORLD whose work or life wasn't directly or indirectly improved or influenced by the science done at NCAR.
www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
There is not a single weather forecaster, TV meteorologist, airline pilot, computer scientist, or climate scientist in the WORLD whose work or life wasn't directly or indirectly improved or influenced by the science done at NCAR.
www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
www.usatoday.com
December 17, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Adding sailors and mariners to this list. Our lives depend on good marine forecasts. This is so sad.
"Executives say they still believe generative AI will eventually transform their businesses, but they are reconsidering how quickly that will happen within their organizations." www.reuters.com/business/bus...
AI promised a revolution. Companies are still waiting.
Last spring, CellarTracker, a wine-collection app, built an AI-powered sommelier to make unvarnished wine recommendations based on a person’s palate. The problem was the chatbot was too nice.
www.reuters.com
December 16, 2025 at 7:20 PM
"Executives say they still believe generative AI will eventually transform their businesses, but they are reconsidering how quickly that will happen within their organizations." www.reuters.com/business/bus...
There was some speculation recently that the DRP wouldn’t be this big a drag on October’s NFP print but those estimates from OPM last summer turned out to be pretty accurate.
The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports.
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
www.reuters.com
December 16, 2025 at 2:35 PM
There was some speculation recently that the DRP wouldn’t be this big a drag on October’s NFP print but those estimates from OPM last summer turned out to be pretty accurate.
Confess I had not thought through the implications of no data collection in Oct. for Nov.'s jobs report until I read BLS's FAQ.
1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov.
2)above clearly has implications for
1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov.
2)above clearly has implications for
Can't actually find this on the BLS site, suggests we should be cautious on HH survey numbers (eg unemp rate) until '26
*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.
*BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY
*BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR
*BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.
December 15, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Confess I had not thought through the implications of no data collection in Oct. for Nov.'s jobs report until I read BLS's FAQ.
1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov.
2)above clearly has implications for
1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov.
2)above clearly has implications for
This was also my take-away from the Sept jobs print. If payroll prints are trending down only because of labor supply (immigration) the unemployment rate should be trending down or steady, not heading up. Unemployment up means demand is slackening more than supply
*WILLIAMS: DATA SHOW LABOR DEMAND HAS SOFTENED MORE THAN SUPPLY
*WILLIAMS: DOWNSIDE EMPLOYMENT RISKS HAVE RISEN IN RECENT MONTHS
*WILLIAMS: MUST HIT 2% INFLATION WITHOUT CAUSING UNDUE JOBS RISK
*WILLIAMS: DOWNSIDE EMPLOYMENT RISKS HAVE RISEN IN RECENT MONTHS
*WILLIAMS: MUST HIT 2% INFLATION WITHOUT CAUSING UNDUE JOBS RISK
December 15, 2025 at 4:15 PM
This was also my take-away from the Sept jobs print. If payroll prints are trending down only because of labor supply (immigration) the unemployment rate should be trending down or steady, not heading up. Unemployment up means demand is slackening more than supply
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
Fed's Williams: Official government data is the gold standard.
December 15, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Fed's Williams: Official government data is the gold standard.
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
Probably the most constructive thing you’ll read today.
GOLDMAN: “.. Shelter inflation is set to sustainably undershoot its pre-pandemic pace. .. PCE housing inflation will slow to .. 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026. .. another reason we expect near-target inflation next year.”
GOLDMAN: “.. Shelter inflation is set to sustainably undershoot its pre-pandemic pace. .. PCE housing inflation will slow to .. 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026. .. another reason we expect near-target inflation next year.”
December 12, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Probably the most constructive thing you’ll read today.
GOLDMAN: “.. Shelter inflation is set to sustainably undershoot its pre-pandemic pace. .. PCE housing inflation will slow to .. 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026. .. another reason we expect near-target inflation next year.”
GOLDMAN: “.. Shelter inflation is set to sustainably undershoot its pre-pandemic pace. .. PCE housing inflation will slow to .. 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026. .. another reason we expect near-target inflation next year.”
Staffing is down ~25% at BLS due to DOGE/DRP and the hiring freeze. But this impacts price programs (largely collected by BLS feds) more than jobs.
CPS (household data in the jobs report) is collected by Census field staff. They are down staff too but have been prioritizing economic indicators.
CPS (household data in the jobs report) is collected by Census field staff. They are down staff too but have been prioritizing economic indicators.
We were already down 25% on staffing at @BLS_gov due to layoffs ahead of shutdown. The effort to catch up means we will not get a clean read on the labor market until December.
Some things to watch for:
October 1 we had 151K federal workers who took earlier buyouts fall from the federal payrolls
Some things to watch for:
October 1 we had 151K federal workers who took earlier buyouts fall from the federal payrolls
December 12, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Staffing is down ~25% at BLS due to DOGE/DRP and the hiring freeze. But this impacts price programs (largely collected by BLS feds) more than jobs.
CPS (household data in the jobs report) is collected by Census field staff. They are down staff too but have been prioritizing economic indicators.
CPS (household data in the jobs report) is collected by Census field staff. They are down staff too but have been prioritizing economic indicators.
A nice thread from Guy on JP's comments yesterday on NFP growth being overstated.
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
An explainer for Fed Chair Powell's comment about nonfarm payroll growth being overstated, which IMHO is being blown out of proportion:
1/ In yesterday's press conference, Powell said there is an overcount of ~60K/month in NFP, which has set off a new round of hyperventilation.
1/ In yesterday's press conference, Powell said there is an overcount of ~60K/month in NFP, which has set off a new round of hyperventilation.
December 11, 2025 at 7:17 PM
A nice thread from Guy on JP's comments yesterday on NFP growth being overstated.
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years.
(Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9
A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
Same product. Same store. Same time. But on Instacart, different customers may see different prices.
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
Same Product, Same Store, but on Instacart, Prices Might Differ
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:01 PM
A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
Bulldogs have two modes: 1. snoring adorably, 2. barking at you until you open the treat jar
December 6, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Bulldogs have two modes: 1. snoring adorably, 2. barking at you until you open the treat jar
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
A thorough review of the issue.
One missing part that economists don't seem to see is that since 2008 the problem isn't that NYC is expensive. It's that Ypsilanti is now also getting more expensive.
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
www.astralcodexten.com/p/vibecessio...
One missing part that economists don't seem to see is that since 2008 the problem isn't that NYC is expensive. It's that Ypsilanti is now also getting more expensive.
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
www.astralcodexten.com/p/vibecessio...
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
...
www.astralcodexten.com
December 5, 2025 at 12:37 AM
A thorough review of the issue.
One missing part that economists don't seem to see is that since 2008 the problem isn't that NYC is expensive. It's that Ypsilanti is now also getting more expensive.
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
www.astralcodexten.com/p/vibecessio...
One missing part that economists don't seem to see is that since 2008 the problem isn't that NYC is expensive. It's that Ypsilanti is now also getting more expensive.
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
www.astralcodexten.com/p/vibecessio...
So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
November 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM
So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
BLS confirms that October jobs report will not be released, but that October payroll numbers will be published with the November report
November 19, 2025 at 5:46 PM
BLS confirms that October jobs report will not be released, but that October payroll numbers will be published with the November report
When Canada tried this is was a data disaster for large swaths of the country
November 18, 2025 at 10:32 PM
When Canada tried this is was a data disaster for large swaths of the country
While everyone is still digesting how it feels to not see a Sept jobs report until late November, remember this feeling the next time folks complain about monthly revisions and suggest publishing data with a 2 or 3 month lag.
November 18, 2025 at 12:04 AM
While everyone is still digesting how it feels to not see a Sept jobs report until late November, remember this feeling the next time folks complain about monthly revisions and suggest publishing data with a 2 or 3 month lag.
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
WHITE HOUSE: FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE PERMANENTLY BEEN DAMAGED WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS LIKELY NEVER RELEASED
November 12, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.
October jobs data may never be released, White House says
October jobs data may never be released, White House says
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been unable to collect price data and employment information during the record-breaking government shutdown.
dlvr.it
November 12, 2025 at 8:25 PM
All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.
The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports.
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
www.reuters.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports.
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
It’s been just one month with little official economic data.
October 31, 2025 at 4:43 PM
It’s been just one month with little official economic data.
A very nice rundown of what private data sources can and cannot tell you about the state of the economy right now.
Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP.
The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.
New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.
New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
What the government shutdown teaches us about private sector data
The government shutdown provides an unexpected test case for an increasingly urgent question: What would happen if official economic statistics became less useful, whether through declining resources,...
www.piie.com
October 30, 2025 at 8:11 PM
A very nice rundown of what private data sources can and cannot tell you about the state of the economy right now.
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Fed Making Key Economic Decisions Without Key Economic Data - The American Prospect
The Fed considers information from a variety of sources in setting monetary policy, everything from anecdotal reports to original data produced by its regional Reserve Banks. But the loss of public, a...
prospect.org
October 21, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).