Guy Berger
@econberger.bsky.social
Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute. I tweet a lot about labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views.
Pinned
My recap of the November jobs report. We only have to wait 3 weeks until the December data!
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
One of the fun things about reading “The Year Ahead” in The Economist 7 weeks late is you find gems like this!
January 4, 2026 at 8:43 PM
One of the fun things about reading “The Year Ahead” in The Economist 7 weeks late is you find gems like this!
White tailed kite at Filoli (sorry for the poor photo quality)
January 4, 2026 at 12:14 AM
White tailed kite at Filoli (sorry for the poor photo quality)
My wife informs me that this season of Emily in Paris once again lacks a Phil Collins drum solo
a man playing drums in a dark room
ALT: a man playing drums in a dark room
media.tenor.com
January 3, 2026 at 5:15 PM
My wife informs me that this season of Emily in Paris once again lacks a Phil Collins drum solo
One of the unsung glories of globalization: northern hemisphere access to the southern hemisphere stone fruit season
January 2, 2026 at 11:30 PM
One of the unsung glories of globalization: northern hemisphere access to the southern hemisphere stone fruit season
Some things to look forward to (or dread) in early 2026... a brief labor market substack post to start the year.
Link: substack.com/home/post/p-...
Link: substack.com/home/post/p-...
January 2, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Some things to look forward to (or dread) in early 2026... a brief labor market substack post to start the year.
Link: substack.com/home/post/p-...
Link: substack.com/home/post/p-...
Stranger Things is a cautionary tale about what happens if you don’t treat residential mold problems early, things can get really out of hand
January 1, 2026 at 10:02 PM
Stranger Things is a cautionary tale about what happens if you don’t treat residential mold problems early, things can get really out of hand
There are some interesting threads floating around about whether Stranger Things lost its way after the first season, reminds me of this 1954 letter from JRR Tolkien to Naomi Mitchison
January 1, 2026 at 6:55 PM
There are some interesting threads floating around about whether Stranger Things lost its way after the first season, reminds me of this 1954 letter from JRR Tolkien to Naomi Mitchison
it’s a pretty severe vote of evolutionary no-confidence in mammals that birds keep developing ground-based forms
January 1, 2026 at 2:36 AM
it’s a pretty severe vote of evolutionary no-confidence in mammals that birds keep developing ground-based forms
Claims:
1/ The last claims report of 2025 ends on an upbeat note, with initial claims at 199K - below year-ago levels, and right around two-year-ago levels.
I would have expected any sizeable increase in layoffs to show up in this data by now.
(Caveats for holiday noise etc)
1/ The last claims report of 2025 ends on an upbeat note, with initial claims at 199K - below year-ago levels, and right around two-year-ago levels.
I would have expected any sizeable increase in layoffs to show up in this data by now.
(Caveats for holiday noise etc)
December 31, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Claims:
1/ The last claims report of 2025 ends on an upbeat note, with initial claims at 199K - below year-ago levels, and right around two-year-ago levels.
I would have expected any sizeable increase in layoffs to show up in this data by now.
(Caveats for holiday noise etc)
1/ The last claims report of 2025 ends on an upbeat note, with initial claims at 199K - below year-ago levels, and right around two-year-ago levels.
I would have expected any sizeable increase in layoffs to show up in this data by now.
(Caveats for holiday noise etc)
Grackles are low budget counterfeit crows
December 30, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Grackles are low budget counterfeit crows
Big band music for the holiday season youtu.be/ZS8qf10xfcQ?...
Saturn
YouTube video by Sun Ra - Topic
youtu.be
December 30, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Big band music for the holiday season youtu.be/ZS8qf10xfcQ?...
Not a comment in favor or against wealth taxation but the “how can we possibly tax illiquid unrealized equity” issue can easily be resolved by accepting equity shares as a form of tax payment
December 29, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Not a comment in favor or against wealth taxation but the “how can we possibly tax illiquid unrealized equity” issue can easily be resolved by accepting equity shares as a form of tax payment
The state of Florida
December 29, 2025 at 7:50 PM
The state of Florida
***SPOILER FOR “STRANGER THINGS” FINALE***
It was all a dream
It was all a dream
December 29, 2025 at 4:38 PM
***SPOILER FOR “STRANGER THINGS” FINALE***
It was all a dream
It was all a dream
I’ve been informed this isn’t a Disney movie. Sorry folks!
It’s weird that there is a Disney Princess movie about the Romanovs of all people
December 29, 2025 at 2:26 AM
I’ve been informed this isn’t a Disney movie. Sorry folks!
It’s weird that there is a Disney Princess movie about the Romanovs of all people
December 29, 2025 at 2:22 AM
It’s weird that there is a Disney Princess movie about the Romanovs of all people
Discussing Monty Python with my brother in law, just remembered my favorite Economist cover assets.bwbx.io/images/users...
December 27, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Discussing Monty Python with my brother in law, just remembered my favorite Economist cover assets.bwbx.io/images/users...
Checkmate, AGI doubters
December 26, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Checkmate, AGI doubters
My kids are watching the 90s remake of Miracle on 34th Street - the idea that different stores might charge very different prices for the same good still made sense in the pre internet era
December 25, 2025 at 4:02 AM
My kids are watching the 90s remake of Miracle on 34th Street - the idea that different stores might charge very different prices for the same good still made sense in the pre internet era
the Q3 gap between personal consumption growth and disposable personal income growth is normal and not really reflective of what’s going on in the economy
December 24, 2025 at 6:39 PM
the Q3 gap between personal consumption growth and disposable personal income growth is normal and not really reflective of what’s going on in the economy
Claims:
1/ Initial claims at 214K, showing no perceptible increase in layoffs.
My estimate is the peak impact of the layoffs announced in October/November will be small, about +12K per week, materializing in early 2025.
1/ Initial claims at 214K, showing no perceptible increase in layoffs.
My estimate is the peak impact of the layoffs announced in October/November will be small, about +12K per week, materializing in early 2025.
December 24, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Claims:
1/ Initial claims at 214K, showing no perceptible increase in layoffs.
My estimate is the peak impact of the layoffs announced in October/November will be small, about +12K per week, materializing in early 2025.
1/ Initial claims at 214K, showing no perceptible increase in layoffs.
My estimate is the peak impact of the layoffs announced in October/November will be small, about +12K per week, materializing in early 2025.
Trolling people who like key lime pie by calling it “mayonnaise pie” - funny or unforgivable?
December 24, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Trolling people who like key lime pie by calling it “mayonnaise pie” - funny or unforgivable?
I'm not a GDP guy but real economic growth over the past 3 quarters has been 2.5% annualized; 2.3% annualized over the past 4. I'd be hesitant to put a lot of weight on the 3rd quarter number in isolation
>2% is quite strong in an environment with negligible labor input growth
>2% is quite strong in an environment with negligible labor input growth
December 23, 2025 at 5:42 PM
I'm not a GDP guy but real economic growth over the past 3 quarters has been 2.5% annualized; 2.3% annualized over the past 4. I'd be hesitant to put a lot of weight on the 3rd quarter number in isolation
>2% is quite strong in an environment with negligible labor input growth
>2% is quite strong in an environment with negligible labor input growth