Not unreasonable to worry about lower response rates, though, if data collection leaks into the week of 11/24...

Good catch - I almost forgot the reference week in Nov and Dec is *usually* a week earlier. But they could just start interviews a little later. If the government doesn’t reopen this week November CPS may also be a goner…

As with the Indeed data, the Revelio turnover data does not show a mid-2024 to mid-2025 stabilization like the CPS and JOLTS data do.

I put very low stock in survey respondents' ability to forecast the labor market one year ahead

October's labor market data was OK; November's, TBD. But adverse labor market consequences are going to pile up faster if it doesn't stop very soon.

Here's a GiveDirectly link to fill the SNAP Gap: www.givedirectly.org/snapgap/

...the expiration of SNAP benefits (which is a human tragedy - please donate to the needy if you can), the grounding of airline flights. Lying not far down the road are holiday travel disruptions and holiday spending.

macromostly.substack.com/p/the-federa...

6/ The impact of federal worker claims on my UR-due-to-permanent-layoff nowcast is tiny

5/ Federal worker initial claims have clearly peaked and are now falling (still crazy-elevated).

Federal worker continuing claims still rising rapidly (and will continue to do so a while longer). Small in absolute terms - 1.5% of regular continuing claims.

4/ No impact of the shutdown on the trajectory, so far:

3/ Continuing claims (which exclude federal workers, like the initial claims data above) remain fairly innocuous. Just the same slow deterioration we saw during the shutdown.

Unlike initial claims, CC reflect hiring as well as layoffs.

2/ This really is a teeny tiny increase (low single digits). What folks are worried about given the high profile layoff announcements is something in the double digits. We'll see what happens in the coming weeks.

I did see it, briefly thought about it, then job cut announcements counterproductively pushed it out of my mind :). Ty!!!

I am also going to work in “but even chihuahua bites hurt a little”