Dario Perkins
@darioperkins.bsky.social
MD Global Macro, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
Pinned
Dario Perkins
@darioperkins.bsky.social
· Nov 16
The 10 rules of central banking - after this I will never get invited to another BoE xmas party... hub.tslombard.com/download/PUB...
hub.tslombard.com
I've discovered how to pin this, just in case Trump drops by and needs some help taking on the most important job in the role (Fed chair)
What are you 3 big macro questions for 2026?
Mine:
1. Will the AI bubble burst?
2. Will US employment contract, or reaccelerate?
3. What will the post-Powell Fed look like?
Mine:
1. Will the AI bubble burst?
2. Will US employment contract, or reaccelerate?
3. What will the post-Powell Fed look like?
January 1, 2026 at 11:35 AM
What are you 3 big macro questions for 2026?
Mine:
1. Will the AI bubble burst?
2. Will US employment contract, or reaccelerate?
3. What will the post-Powell Fed look like?
Mine:
1. Will the AI bubble burst?
2. Will US employment contract, or reaccelerate?
3. What will the post-Powell Fed look like?
This would make a great show, except its obvious who the traitors are from the start - basically anyone who would take the job as chair rn 🤣
January 1, 2026 at 9:33 AM
This would make a great show, except its obvious who the traitors are from the start - basically anyone who would take the job as chair rn 🤣
Reposted by Dario Perkins
🧵Things that wont happen in 2026.
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
December 23, 2025 at 3:07 PM
🧵Things that wont happen in 2026.
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
Reposted by Dario Perkins
3. GERMAN FISCAL GOES TOO FAR
December 23, 2025 at 3:07 PM
3. GERMAN FISCAL GOES TOO FAR
Reposted by Dario Perkins
5) THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY
December 23, 2025 at 3:07 PM
5) THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY
So basically we cant trust them, whoever it is. Anyone who wants the job under these conditions.....
*TRUMP: ANYONE THAT DISAGREES WITH ME WILL NEVER BE FED CHAIRMAN
Great message for global markets/investors in dollar assets...
Great message for global markets/investors in dollar assets...
December 23, 2025 at 6:53 PM
So basically we cant trust them, whoever it is. Anyone who wants the job under these conditions.....
Reposted by Dario Perkins
Kevin Hassett looks exactly like Alan Carr
December 23, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Kevin Hassett looks exactly like Alan Carr
🧵Things that wont happen in 2026.
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
December 23, 2025 at 3:07 PM
🧵Things that wont happen in 2026.
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
some "hilariously" bold off-consensus forecasts
Reposted by Dario Perkins
NEW BLOG POST: bold non-consensus predictions for 2026.
How the K-shaped economy goes wrong. FOMC traitors. My new rap career. Germany takes fiscal spending too far, and why the Digital God cant save us.
No paywall (unless admin screwed this up AGAIN).
hub.tslombard.com/things-that-...
How the K-shaped economy goes wrong. FOMC traitors. My new rap career. Germany takes fiscal spending too far, and why the Digital God cant save us.
No paywall (unless admin screwed this up AGAIN).
hub.tslombard.com/things-that-...
TS Lombard
We encourage clients to meet or talk with our analysts as well as read their research. Analysts are available to clients for private consultation, to attend client events, conferences and for bespoke ...
hub.tslombard.com
December 22, 2025 at 7:03 PM
NEW BLOG POST: bold non-consensus predictions for 2026.
How the K-shaped economy goes wrong. FOMC traitors. My new rap career. Germany takes fiscal spending too far, and why the Digital God cant save us.
No paywall (unless admin screwed this up AGAIN).
hub.tslombard.com/things-that-...
How the K-shaped economy goes wrong. FOMC traitors. My new rap career. Germany takes fiscal spending too far, and why the Digital God cant save us.
No paywall (unless admin screwed this up AGAIN).
hub.tslombard.com/things-that-...
NEW BLOG POST: bold non-consensus predictions for 2026.
How the K-shaped economy goes wrong. FOMC traitors. My new rap career. Germany takes fiscal spending too far, and why the Digital God cant save us.
No paywall (unless admin screwed this up AGAIN).
hub.tslombard.com/things-that-...
How the K-shaped economy goes wrong. FOMC traitors. My new rap career. Germany takes fiscal spending too far, and why the Digital God cant save us.
No paywall (unless admin screwed this up AGAIN).
hub.tslombard.com/things-that-...
TS Lombard
We encourage clients to meet or talk with our analysts as well as read their research. Analysts are available to clients for private consultation, to attend client events, conferences and for bespoke ...
hub.tslombard.com
December 22, 2025 at 7:03 PM
NEW BLOG POST: bold non-consensus predictions for 2026.
How the K-shaped economy goes wrong. FOMC traitors. My new rap career. Germany takes fiscal spending too far, and why the Digital God cant save us.
No paywall (unless admin screwed this up AGAIN).
hub.tslombard.com/things-that-...
How the K-shaped economy goes wrong. FOMC traitors. My new rap career. Germany takes fiscal spending too far, and why the Digital God cant save us.
No paywall (unless admin screwed this up AGAIN).
hub.tslombard.com/things-that-...
1% of GDP more debt gets you 1 bp on the term premium.
Seems like a good deal 🤣
Seems like a good deal 🤣
📈 How rising Treasury issuance influences #InterestRates: https://bit.ly/3Kk74Yx
Higher Treasury Supply Is Likely to Put Upward Pressure on Interest Rates
U.S. government debt has been increasing over the past two decades and is expected to continue to increase. The higher supply of Treasury securities issued to fund this debt is likely to put upward pr...
bit.ly
December 19, 2025 at 7:46 PM
1% of GDP more debt gets you 1 bp on the term premium.
Seems like a good deal 🤣
Seems like a good deal 🤣
Reposted by Dario Perkins
Other problems were the truncated survey itself, which included 1/2 of the month.
The survey was started on November 14, after vote to reopen on November 12. That meant the data for the months likely included more holiday promotions than usual.
The survey was started on November 14, after vote to reopen on November 12. That meant the data for the months likely included more holiday promotions than usual.
December 19, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Other problems were the truncated survey itself, which included 1/2 of the month.
The survey was started on November 14, after vote to reopen on November 12. That meant the data for the months likely included more holiday promotions than usual.
The survey was started on November 14, after vote to reopen on November 12. That meant the data for the months likely included more holiday promotions than usual.
George Osborne, new managing director of OpenAi.
You couldn't make it up. Peak is in 🤣
You couldn't make it up. Peak is in 🤣
December 16, 2025 at 7:23 PM
George Osborne, new managing director of OpenAi.
You couldn't make it up. Peak is in 🤣
You couldn't make it up. Peak is in 🤣
Powell said if employment is contracting, you dont want policy to be pushing it lower. SOMEONE HAVE A WORD WITH THE BOE
December 16, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Powell said if employment is contracting, you dont want policy to be pushing it lower. SOMEONE HAVE A WORD WITH THE BOE
Lots of commentary over the weekend about how the Bessent-Warsh combination will kick off a new era of anti-Keynesian supply-side economics. What people are forgetting is that these guys are total bullshitters
December 15, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Lots of commentary over the weekend about how the Bessent-Warsh combination will kick off a new era of anti-Keynesian supply-side economics. What people are forgetting is that these guys are total bullshitters
Kevin Warsh says he was "right" about QE but it took 11 years for it to cause runaway inflation. Seeing as it took Kevin Hassett 21 years to hit his 1999 target for the US stock market, I guess he *should* probably get the job 🏆💪
December 13, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Kevin Warsh says he was "right" about QE but it took 11 years for it to cause runaway inflation. Seeing as it took Kevin Hassett 21 years to hit his 1999 target for the US stock market, I guess he *should* probably get the job 🏆💪
Is the Fed policy rate at the right level to control inflation? Literally the only question that is relevant in this entire "monetization" debate. The rest is noise and conspiracy theories
December 11, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Is the Fed policy rate at the right level to control inflation? Literally the only question that is relevant in this entire "monetization" debate. The rest is noise and conspiracy theories
Today's note, Ten popular myths in macro, is probably going to get me kicked out of the magical circle of City economists. Its all about "bullshit" narratives everyone seems to believe 🤣
December 4, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Today's note, Ten popular myths in macro, is probably going to get me kicked out of the magical circle of City economists. Its all about "bullshit" narratives everyone seems to believe 🤣
Asked whether Hassett was Trump's choice for Fed chair, Bessent played down the importance of the role.
SO THAT'S A YES THEN 🤣
SO THAT'S A YES THEN 🤣
December 3, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Asked whether Hassett was Trump's choice for Fed chair, Bessent played down the importance of the role.
SO THAT'S A YES THEN 🤣
SO THAT'S A YES THEN 🤣
Reposted by Dario Perkins
Extremely good stuff from @darioperkins.bsky.social on Perkins v Beamish this week.
overcast.fm/+ABKrk8yGXIo
overcast.fm/+ABKrk8yGXIo
The Big Fed Conspiracy — GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish
Fed Cut, AI and the UK BudgetAndrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer:1) Is a Fe...
overcast.fm
November 29, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Extremely good stuff from @darioperkins.bsky.social on Perkins v Beamish this week.
overcast.fm/+ABKrk8yGXIo
overcast.fm/+ABKrk8yGXIo
PODCAST TIME: The BoE-fication of the Fed.
A world of dissent.
cock up or CONSPIRACY?
usually this sort of thing is a cock up, but this time....
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/04MK...
A world of dissent.
cock up or CONSPIRACY?
usually this sort of thing is a cock up, but this time....
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/04MK...
The Big Fed Conspiracy
Podcast Episode · GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish · 11/27/2025 · 45m
podcasts.apple.com
November 27, 2025 at 3:54 PM
PODCAST TIME: The BoE-fication of the Fed.
A world of dissent.
cock up or CONSPIRACY?
usually this sort of thing is a cock up, but this time....
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/04MK...
A world of dissent.
cock up or CONSPIRACY?
usually this sort of thing is a cock up, but this time....
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/04MK...
so #Budget2026 taxes a bit more, spends a bit more.. net mildly contractionary.. but no extra squeeze until the end of the parliament (which presumably wont happen). That's it?
thanks for saving us having to watch it OBR - first useful thing you've done
thanks for saving us having to watch it OBR - first useful thing you've done
November 26, 2025 at 12:35 PM
so #Budget2026 taxes a bit more, spends a bit more.. net mildly contractionary.. but no extra squeeze until the end of the parliament (which presumably wont happen). That's it?
thanks for saving us having to watch it OBR - first useful thing you've done
thanks for saving us having to watch it OBR - first useful thing you've done
Reposted by Dario Perkins
Large language models are statistical token-prediction systems, and despite AGI claims by Mark Zuckerberg, Dario Amodei (who said AGI "may come as soon as 2026"), and Sam Altman, neuroscience suggests language alone may not produce human-level intelligence.
Is language the same as intelligence? The AI industry desperately needs it to be
The AI boom is based on a fundamental mistake.
www.theverge.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Large language models are statistical token-prediction systems, and despite AGI claims by Mark Zuckerberg, Dario Amodei (who said AGI "may come as soon as 2026"), and Sam Altman, neuroscience suggests language alone may not produce human-level intelligence.