Dario Perkins
@darioperkins.bsky.social
MD Global Macro, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
Pinned
Dario Perkins
@darioperkins.bsky.social
· Nov 16
The 10 rules of central banking - after this I will never get invited to another BoE xmas party... hub.tslombard.com/download/PUB...
hub.tslombard.com
I've discovered how to pin this, just in case Trump drops by and needs some help taking on the most important job in the role (Fed chair)
Nobody knows what to buy or sell anymore.
It would be fabulously ironic if the bull market in bullshit triggered a bear market in stocks...
It would be fabulously ironic if the bull market in bullshit triggered a bear market in stocks...
February 17, 2026 at 1:16 PM
Nobody knows what to buy or sell anymore.
It would be fabulously ironic if the bull market in bullshit triggered a bear market in stocks...
It would be fabulously ironic if the bull market in bullshit triggered a bear market in stocks...
"Inflation is a choice"... words that might come back to haunt Kevin Warsh 🤣
February 17, 2026 at 10:23 AM
"Inflation is a choice"... words that might come back to haunt Kevin Warsh 🤣
Both US and UK labour-market data seem to have more to do with the election cycle than the tech cycle....... #moronomics
February 17, 2026 at 10:18 AM
Both US and UK labour-market data seem to have more to do with the election cycle than the tech cycle....... #moronomics
BoE is so far behind the curve, its on the wrong curve
February 17, 2026 at 8:41 AM
BoE is so far behind the curve, its on the wrong curve
the benefits of running the economy at full employment
February 16, 2026 at 4:45 PM
the benefits of running the economy at full employment
Reposted by Dario Perkins
The combo of 1) a pandemic that required big problems be solved quickly, 2) technologies that facilitated biz transformation & 3) big stimulus—strong demand made investment in worth it + scarce labor made it necessary together led to the first cycle w/ no investment recession & an improved trend
February 16, 2026 at 12:46 PM
The combo of 1) a pandemic that required big problems be solved quickly, 2) technologies that facilitated biz transformation & 3) big stimulus—strong demand made investment in worth it + scarce labor made it necessary together led to the first cycle w/ no investment recession & an improved trend
yes, this is my view. All the focus was on headcount, now its on efficiency - particularly as the policy outlook is such a mess
My pet theory is that post Covid labour scares (the fear of not been able to get staff) companies over hired. And now with demand growing they can increase production without more workers. Think this also explains some of the labour market low hire and fire dynamics.
February 16, 2026 at 10:13 AM
yes, this is my view. All the focus was on headcount, now its on efficiency - particularly as the policy outlook is such a mess
I dont know the future, but right now US productivity has v little to do with AI. If you look at the trend acceleration, it predates LLMs
February 16, 2026 at 8:55 AM
I dont know the future, but right now US productivity has v little to do with AI. If you look at the trend acceleration, it predates LLMs
"Lets do what Greenspan did in the 1990s to accommodate the productivity boom".
There were two Greenspans in the 1990s... One that thought tech was deflationary, one that thought it was inflationary.
Warsh, Bessent and co are cherry-picking
There were two Greenspans in the 1990s... One that thought tech was deflationary, one that thought it was inflationary.
Warsh, Bessent and co are cherry-picking
February 13, 2026 at 11:53 AM
"Lets do what Greenspan did in the 1990s to accommodate the productivity boom".
There were two Greenspans in the 1990s... One that thought tech was deflationary, one that thought it was inflationary.
Warsh, Bessent and co are cherry-picking
There were two Greenspans in the 1990s... One that thought tech was deflationary, one that thought it was inflationary.
Warsh, Bessent and co are cherry-picking
macro research has already been disrupted by low-quality hot takes on social media. Now AI is driving the cost of bullshit to zero, its only going to get worse. Personally I still think there is a place for thoughtful market-relevant analysis - and for calling out the BS
February 13, 2026 at 8:57 AM
macro research has already been disrupted by low-quality hot takes on social media. Now AI is driving the cost of bullshit to zero, its only going to get worse. Personally I still think there is a place for thoughtful market-relevant analysis - and for calling out the BS
probably the most important chart of the last 3 months
February 13, 2026 at 8:54 AM
probably the most important chart of the last 3 months
Weird week. So we are worried big tech is pissing away all its earnings on datacenter capex - with questionable returns - while simultaneously destroying the business models of entire sectors of the economy (esp software)? And there is no Fed put. Is that it?
February 13, 2026 at 8:53 AM
Weird week. So we are worried big tech is pissing away all its earnings on datacenter capex - with questionable returns - while simultaneously destroying the business models of entire sectors of the economy (esp software)? And there is no Fed put. Is that it?
Reposted by Dario Perkins
they already bought the dip and why haven't stocks gone back up yet?
February 12, 2026 at 8:11 PM
they already bought the dip and why haven't stocks gone back up yet?
It appears that nobody on the other place has ever seen stocks go down....
February 12, 2026 at 8:10 PM
It appears that nobody on the other place has ever seen stocks go down....
New episode of our podcast:
1) Green shoots in the US jobs market?
2) How will Warsh change the Fed (clue: a lot of mindless virtue signaling)
3) The Anything-But-US-Tech trade
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/568E...
1) Green shoots in the US jobs market?
2) How will Warsh change the Fed (clue: a lot of mindless virtue signaling)
3) The Anything-But-US-Tech trade
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/568E...
The Warsh Fed and The Trade of The Decade
Podcast Episode · GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish · 02/11/2026 · 42m
podcasts.apple.com
February 12, 2026 at 3:47 PM
New episode of our podcast:
1) Green shoots in the US jobs market?
2) How will Warsh change the Fed (clue: a lot of mindless virtue signaling)
3) The Anything-But-US-Tech trade
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/568E...
1) Green shoots in the US jobs market?
2) How will Warsh change the Fed (clue: a lot of mindless virtue signaling)
3) The Anything-But-US-Tech trade
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/568E...
Something Big Is Happening 😜 www.politico.eu/article/bund...
Bundesbank boss: New reality calls for more EU debt
Joachim Nagel’s shift on eurobonds reflects today’s “different reality,” he told POLITICO.
www.politico.eu
February 12, 2026 at 3:00 PM
Something Big Is Happening 😜 www.politico.eu/article/bund...
Reposted by Dario Perkins
Important!
Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.
February 11, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Important!
Suspect people taking this balance sheet shrinkage thing too literally. Warsh will try to reduce it a bit over time, but mostly virtue signalling. Will be part of virtue signalling package, incl. fewer press conferences, scrapping dotplots, anti "woke" drive, less speeches etc
February 7, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Suspect people taking this balance sheet shrinkage thing too literally. Warsh will try to reduce it a bit over time, but mostly virtue signalling. Will be part of virtue signalling package, incl. fewer press conferences, scrapping dotplots, anti "woke" drive, less speeches etc
Markets can't speak, but if they could, they would be saying: stop pissing away money on datacenters
February 5, 2026 at 10:43 PM
Markets can't speak, but if they could, they would be saying: stop pissing away money on datacenters
new Fed analysis blames the slowdown in US employment mostly on supply - i.e weak labour force growth.
Not the AI/productivity fairy
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
Not the AI/productivity fairy
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
February 5, 2026 at 2:49 PM
new Fed analysis blames the slowdown in US employment mostly on supply - i.e weak labour force growth.
Not the AI/productivity fairy
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
Not the AI/productivity fairy
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
Think you can take central-bank transparency too far, and reading nine different accounts of what is happening in the UK economy does it for me..
instantly headache-inducing
instantly headache-inducing
February 5, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Think you can take central-bank transparency too far, and reading nine different accounts of what is happening in the UK economy does it for me..
instantly headache-inducing
instantly headache-inducing
wish the BoE would get a better editor. Reading sentences like this gives me a headache 🤣
February 5, 2026 at 2:14 PM
wish the BoE would get a better editor. Reading sentences like this gives me a headache 🤣
Suddenly the German data begin to improve, just as investors were starting to doubt the fiscal stimulus. It is worth remembering that the govt didn't really start to spend until very late in 2025.....
February 5, 2026 at 10:46 AM
Suddenly the German data begin to improve, just as investors were starting to doubt the fiscal stimulus. It is worth remembering that the govt didn't really start to spend until very late in 2025.....