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Peterson Institute for International Economics
@piie.com
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The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy.
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"Trade wars screw up other things."

Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.
November 7, 2025 at 2:51 PM
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"It sends no real signals of value or use."

Senator Rand Paul told us what he thinks about the trade deficit.
November 6, 2025 at 8:30 PM
piie.com
Total real US goods imports from the world sharply increased in early 2025, likely due largely to importers frontloading goods before tariffs took effect. By July 2025, as tariffs were enforced, cumulative US real goods imports were ~10% above January-July 2024 level. #PIIECharts
The US imported a larger amount of goods in the first half of 2025, but less from China and more from the EU and Mexico
October 30, 2025 at 4:13 PM
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As Trump kicked off his trade war this year, some economists predicted a drop in US goods imports. The US did import less from some, notably China, but imported more from others, such as the EU & Mexico, in January-July 2025, compared with the same period last year. #PIIECharts
The US imported a larger amount of goods in the first half of 2025, but less from China and more from the EU and Mexico
October 29, 2025 at 8:34 PM
piie.com
do gifs work on here? we made this as a gif too
October 24, 2025 at 5:23 PM
piie.com
The US Trade Representative is initiating an investigation into Trump's US-China "Phase One Agreement."

Our research from 2022 found that China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in the trade deal.

Details, data, & so many charts here: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
China did not buy any of the extra $200 billion of US exports under Trump's trade deal
October 24, 2025 at 5:14 PM
piie.com
At the root of the recent currency instability, Argentina needs dollars to maintain the monetary framework it put in place last April following the new IMF program & loan.

Maurice Obstfeld explains Argentina's credibility trap: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Argentina needs dollars to keep the value of its currency within a specified range
October 24, 2025 at 2:54 PM
piie.com
NEW: The cumulative US merchandise trade deficit rose in January-July 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, reflecting a growing excess of national expenditure over national production.
Learn more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
US imports have been higher this year through July compared with 2024
October 20, 2025 at 3:54 PM
piie.com
🍂That's a wrap on 2025 fall meetings!🍂
Watch presentations & discussions on tariffs, of course, but also the roles of the dollar & euro in the international financial system, Canada's economic outlook, & more, & find slides here: https://www.piie.com/event-series/piie-spring-and-fall-meetings
PIIE Fall Meetings Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events -- October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE) -- October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) -- October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape? Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation) -- October 16 9:00 AM EDT The changing dollar regime: An update Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1:30 PM EDT Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT Europe in a changing international monetary system Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
October 17, 2025 at 7:58 PM
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The US tariffs in effect as of September 11, 2025, if left in place over the coming decade, would result in less American economic output, higher prices, & lower wages than if they had not been adopted.
Read more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
US employment would be lower than otherwise in five sectors under US tariffs as of September 11, 2025
October 15, 2025 at 12:30 PM
piie.com
Our Fall 2025 Global Economic Prospects shows that real global GDP is projected to rise 3.1% in 2025 & 2.9% in 2026. #PIIECharts
Most large, advanced economies face slower GDP growth next year, while China and India withstand tariff drag
October 14, 2025 at 3:25 PM
piie.com
Inflation is going to be higher in the US in the news few years than most are forecasting, @adamposen.bsky.social says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Why the inflation impact of deportation has been lagged If 1 million+ migrants have left, how has production stayed up? No increase in native or legal employment in the sectors which are known to be heavy users of migrant labor What is going on? McKibbin, Noland, and Hogan (2024) says impact should be big and stagflationary Substitution of K or L not there in the data Mismeasurement of net migrant outflows? Over-counting/claims of total deported? Or workers and families take time to make up their minds on a wrenching decision Not sure that ICE really will come for them Head underground but keep working Employers do not have to pay more or invest – in fact can end up paying less Difficult to decide when to leave Actual financial conditions are more relevant than FFR Inflation expectations are less well anchored Recent past experience of higher inflation has a lasting impact (Gagnon and Kamin 2025) Staggered salient price hikes are coming Think like eggs under Biden Beef, certain fruit and veg, musical instruments, toys… De minimis imported goods Some pharmaceuticals potentially Energy depending upon the impact of AI demand Durable goods (autos, furniture, construction inputs), though, are less salient for inflation perceptions
October 9, 2025 at 5:45 PM
piie.com
Rather than worrying about the China Shock 2.0 in developed economies, we should be much more worried about the China Shock 1.0 in low- & middle-income countries, Arvind Subramanian says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
The New China Shock is on Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) High and rising imports of low-skilled products from China Magnitude and pace of China shock much greater than for rich countries China Shock 2.0 Exaggerated Implication: now impact for rich countries is mostly from Chinese high skilled esports Magnitude and pace of China Shock 2.0 significantly smaller than China Shock 1.0 China SHock 2.0 no longer macro-economic but sectoral/technological/security
October 9, 2025 at 5:38 PM
piie.com
Robust investment in the US in AI-related categories has more than compensated for softer investment elsewhere.

Find these charts & so many more, & watch the presentation here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
US business investment continues to grow, but only because of AI-related categories AI expectations have driven up the stock market
October 9, 2025 at 5:31 PM
piie.com
NEW: Karen Dynan presents our semiannual Global Economic Prospects.
The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions & high uncertainty around US economic policy. But growth is expected to slow across most major economies in 2026.
Most large, advanced economies face slower GDP growth next year, while China and India withstand tariff drag
October 9, 2025 at 5:14 PM
piie.com
@adamposen.bsky.social on gold buyers:
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/4eefc53c-de68-4495-b729-b028916dd645 Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute agrees that gold buyers’ are not primarily motivated by inflation:  Gold prices are being driven primarily by retail investors, enemy regimes (Russia and Iran), and some speculators. It is primarily driven by investors who fundamentally distrust the US government and fiat money. Not just inflation. In fact, gold’s value (like crypto) to these people is in large part due to being uncorrelated with US macro and government (so not US inflation and the Fed).
October 9, 2025 at 1:17 PM
piie.com
Even concrete US interventions are unlikely to save Argentina's peso for long unless they go further than so far promised—though it might give Milei a rickety bridge through the October election without an embarrassing devaluation.

By Maurice Obstfeld: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Promised US assistance appears aimed at helping keep Argentine peso's value within a specified range
October 6, 2025 at 6:43 PM
piie.com
🍂 It's fall meetings szn 🍂
We hope you can join us this week & next! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...
PIIE Fall Meetings Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events -- October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE) -- October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) -- October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape? Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation) -- October 16 9:00 AM EDT The changing dollar regime: An update Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1:30 PM EDT Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT Europe in a changing international monetary system Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
October 6, 2025 at 1:50 PM
piie.com
Update:
Average US tariffs on China: 57.6%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 32.6%

Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 19.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart Last updated September 25, 2025
October 2, 2025 at 8:51 PM
piie.com
🍂 It's fall, y'all!🍂
We hope you can join us for our fall meetings! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...
PIIE Fall Meetings Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events -- October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE) -- October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) -- October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape? Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation) -- October 16 9:00 AM EDT The changing dollar regime: An update Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1:30 PM EDT Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT Europe in a changing international monetary system Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
October 2, 2025 at 1:57 PM
piie.com
Marcus Noland on Korea's supposed $350 billion investment in the US:
What will constitute the $350bn investment is contested. Here is Marcus Noland of the Peterson Institute for International Economics: Originally, Korea thought it could count investment guarantees and things like that as part of the $350bn — such as the battery factory down in Georgia, some investment guarantees or some loans from the state bank — and count that. But the US has now come back and said it wants equity; and not only does it want equity, it wants equity that will be controlled by the White House and it will not necessarily be invested in Korean firms; the US just invests it any way they want . . . it’s a bizarre idea
September 29, 2025 at 2:11 PM
piie.com
Trump succeeding in pressing the Fed to lower rates further than it would otherwise would slow US growth through most of the 2030s, & boost inflation through 2040. #PIIECharts
More: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/erosion-fed-independence-would-slow-us-economic-growth-and-boost
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time
September 28, 2025 at 4:49 PM
piie.com
If Trump succeeds in pressing the Fed to cut rates more than it would otherwise, the US would see slower growth through most of the 2030s & higher inflation through 2040. #PIIECharts
Read: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/erosion-fed-independence-would-slow-us-economic-growth-and-boost
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time
September 26, 2025 at 2:40 PM
piie.com
@eribakova.bsky.social joined @mdebolle.com on Policy for the Planet to explain how critical minerals might help Ukraine rebuild its economy.

Listen here or wherever you get podcasts: https://policyfortheplanet.com/how-ukraines-critical-minerals-could-help-rebuild-its-economy-episode-19
September 25, 2025 at 4:30 PM
piie.com
If Trump succeeds in pressing the Fed to cut rates more than it would otherwise, the US would see slower growth through most of the 2030s & higher inflation through 2040. #PIIECharts
Read: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/erosion-fed-independence-would-slow-us-economic-growth-and-boost
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time
September 24, 2025 at 8:40 PM