Antonio Fatas
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antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas
@antoniofatas.bsky.social
2.7K followers 750 following 2.7K posts

Professor of Economics at INSEAD. Interested in global macroeconomic issues.

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Economics 92%
Political science 5%
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Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 22h
Patrick Imam and Tigran Poghosyan show that despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks did not achieve systematically better outcomes than their non-targeting peers during the 2022 global inflation surge.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The figure illustrates how inflation expectations shifted after the 2022 inflation surge, together with their 90-95% confidence intervals. In both inflation targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries, expectations for the year ahead increased by roughly one percentage point, while longer-term expectations remained stable, indicating that credibility held up across regimes. See Imam and Poghosyan (2025) for details of the empirical analysis. The 2022 global inflation surge tested inflation-targeting frameworks under severe supply shocks. This column shows that, despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks did not achieve systematically better outcomes than their non-targeting peers. Instead, credibility and timely action mattered more than institutional labels. As supply shocks driven by geopolitics, climate change, and the energy transition become more frequent, inflation targeting frameworks will need to adapt and evolve to remain effective in this new environment.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 22h
A Kato & H Nishiyama find regional trade agreements have positive effects on exports to other countries from overseas Japanese manufacturing multinationals, suggesting that they have optimised their cross-border supply chain networks through free trade agreements.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Chart showing activities of overseas Japanese affiliates by region. Data source: METI, the Basic Survey on Oversea Business Activities Studies examining the effects of free trade agreements on the activities of multinational enterprises have tended to focus on trade between home countries and their FTA partner countries. This column examines the effects of free trade agreements on local sales and exports to third countries by overseas affiliates of Japanese manufacturing multinationals. While the effects on local sales are ambiguous, regional trade agreements have positive effects on exports to other countries, suggesting that that Japanese multinationals have optimised their cross-border supply chain networks by utilising various forms of free trade agreements.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 22h
8-hour workday led to + employment in Denmark, especially among unskilled & female workers. Earnings fell in provincial towns but less in Copenhagen, where union membership was higher & wages rose to offset shorter hours.
M Fredagsvik Gunnesmo, C Worm Hansen
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Average hours worked in Denmark from 1872 to 1925. The dashed line represents the collective bargaining reform. We observe country-level average working hours between 1872 and 1911, but with gaps. We calculate the 1914–1925 values from occupation-level data. Hours are interpolated where data is missing: several intervals between 1872 and 1911, and between 1914 and 1919. In recent years, calls for shorter working weeks have re-emerged in Europe and elsewhere. This column examines how Denmark’s 1919 shift to the eight-hour workday affected labour market outcomes such as hourly wages, weekly earnings, and employment. Weekly earnings fell in provincial towns but less so in Copenhagen, where union membership was higher and hourly wages rose partly to offset shorter hours. Employment increased everywhere, especially among unskilled and female workers. Decentralised wage bargaining appears to have allowed for partial wage compensation and employment expansion.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

helengibbons.bsky.social
Helen Gibbons @helengibbons.bsky.social · 5d
From CER: What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe. www.cer.eu/insights/wha...
What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe
Armida van Rij and Sander Tordoir decipher what the election results mean for The Netherlands and Europe more broadly.
www.cer.eu

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 7d
Efraim Benmelech & Joao Monteiro use data for 115 conflicts over the past 75 years and document large and persistent declines in output, investment, and trade following the onset of war, with no evidence of recovery even a decade later.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph showing the effect of conflict on GDP Wars leave deep and lasting scars on economies. Using data for 115 conflicts across 145 countries over the past 75 years, this column documents large and persistent declines in output, investment, and trade following the onset of war, with no evidence of recovery even a decade later. Government revenues collapse while spending remains stable, forcing reliance on inflationary finance and short-term debt. The findings show that the true cost of war extends far beyond the battlefield, reshaping fiscal and monetary stability for years to come.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 7d
Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris, & Salma Khalid show that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut. They also believe that debt stabilisation efforts will disproportionately penalise them.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
This figure shows the median and interquartile range for the response of people in each country to the question "What do you think the current level of government debt is in percent of your country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?" Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut. A smaller group of wealthier and more experienced voters demonstrates a stronger grasp of fiscal realities. Yet all groups share a common concern: that debt stabilisation efforts will disproportionately penalise them. These findings reveal how misinformation and memory shape the politics of debt – and why fixing fiscal policy may first require fixing public perception.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

theguardian.com
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 8d
FBI fires top official amid Kash Patel’s outrage over reports of agency jet use
FBI fires top official amid Kash Patel’s outrage over reports of agency jet use
Patel reportedly became furious after stories revealed he flew to visit girlfriend and fired official who oversees fleet A top FBI official with 27 years standing has reportedly been fired by the bureau after its director, Kash Patel, became enraged by press stories revealing he had used a government jet to travel to see his girlfriend sing the national anthem at a wrestling match. Steven Palmer, who had worked at the bureau since 1998, was fired as head of the FBI’s critical incident response group which is responsible for handling major security threats as well as overseeing the agency’s fleet of jets. He was the third head of the unit to be dismissed since Patel became the second Trump administration’s FBI director in February. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Richard S.J. Tol, Alistair Munro , and 12 more

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 9d
Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball!

This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers.

paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...
Economics Literature Search
Full-text search across 15,000+ papers from top economics journals and NBER working papers. Track how empirical methods have evolved over time.
paulgp.com

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 10d
A Bonfiglioli, R Crinò, M Filomena, & G Gancia find that local #AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shifts from renewable to non-renewable sources.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Panel (a) displays the employment share of data-intensive occupations in each commuting zone in 2022. Panel (b) shows the total CO2 emissions in each commuting zone for the same year. Darker colours represent higher levels of adoption of data-intensive occupations or emissions over the sample period. Red triangles indicate the presence of a data centre site. AI and other data-intensive technologies may help optimise energy use, but the technologies themselves are power hungry. This column explores how the diffusion of AI affected emissions in the US between 2002 and 2022 and finds that local AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shift from renewable to non-renewable sources. The ‘green’ promise of AI will remain elusive as long as the electricity sector itself does not rapidly decarbonise.

Reposted by Samuel Bentolila, Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 12d
David Martinez-Miera & Carlos Sunyer examine how an increase in political polarisation impacts a region's capacity to attract human capital. They leverage Spain's centralised system of medical resident placements and the 2017 Catalonia referendum as a case study.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graph showing average medical residents’ score in Catalonia vs rest of Spain. The points represent yearly mean residuals from an individual-level regression of score on province and specialty-year fixed effects, disaggregated by region. Lines represent the linear fit to the scatterplots, separately estimated before and after the shock. Given the growing prevalence of political and social polarisation, understanding its effects on society is of paramount importance. This column discusses the effects of an increase in political polarisation on a region’s capacity to attract human capital. The evidence shows how an increase in polarisation results in lower attraction of human capital, especially for individuals with higher human capital scores.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 13d
11 states w/negative GDP growth, 10 states w/negative employment #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Silvia Secchi, Cullen S. Hendrix, Antonio Fatás , and 1 more

David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 16d
Bipartisan group of big-name economists (including Bernanke, Yellen, Nobel laureates Acemoglu & Johnson, etc) in amicus brief urge SCOTUS to throw out Trump's reciprocal tariffs.

www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 17d
Nearly a decade after the #Brexit vote, new research shows how images, not just headlines, shaped public perceptions.
Wanyu Chung (University of Birmingham) talks to @talknormal.co.uk about the visual politics of Brexit, using AI to measure emotion in media photos.

cepr.org/multimedia/v...
#EconSky
Graphic promoting a VoxTalks podcast with Wanyu Chung titled “The visual politics of Brexit”, featuring Nigel Farage speaking in a parliamentary setting.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

kclausing.bsky.social
Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 18d
The podcast version of our BPEA paper on “Who bears the burden of climate inaction?” (thread below, with @cwolfram.bsky.social and @knittelmit.bsky.social) just dropped .

www.brookings.edu/articles/how...

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

molly.wiki
Molly White @molly.wiki · 18d
Donald Trump has pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao. Binance has been a major supporter of Trump's crypto projects, and Trump has already made millions after Binance accepted a $2 billion investment from an Emirati fund denominated in the Trump family's USD1 stablecoin.
WSJ headline: Trump Pardons Convicted Binance Founder

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 18d
I am not a big fan of net debt/net interest calculation exactly for that reason: there are obligations associated to them. Yes, you can tier interest on reserves but that changes behavior. You can also tax banks and get revenue from them.

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 18d
Is that right? Fed pays an interest on reserves that (almost) matches what it receives from the government. The two rates are not the same but you cannot fully exclude 100% of these payments.

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 18d
A great summary by Peter Klenow of the work of Aghion And Howitt that led to this year's Nobel Prize. @voxeu.org
Sustained growth through creative destruction: Nobel laureates Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt
Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been jointly awarded the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Joel Mokyr ‘for having explained innovation-driven economic growth’. Aghion and Howitt were cited by the Nobel committee ‘for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction’. As this column explains, their work transformed creative destruction from an evocative metaphor into a rigorous analytical framework. The Nobel recognition honours research that has fundamentally reshaped how economists understand the engines of prosperity and technological progress.
cepr.org

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

cepr.org
Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 20d
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20761 Resetting the Innovation Clock: Endogenous Growth through Technological Turnover
Philippe Aghion, @abergeaud.bsky.social, Timo Boppart, Jean-Félix Brouillette
cepr.org/publications...
#CEPR_MG #EconSky
We propose a model of endogenous economic growth with "weak'' scale effects and diminishing returns to innovation at the micro level. In our model, entrants introduce new technologies through research and incumbents incrementally improve them through development. Over time, further improvement becomes harder such that firms ultimately run out of ideas and exit, paving the way for entrants that discover new technologies with further room for improvement. This turnover gives rise to a continuous stream of (temporary) opportunities for technological improvements that sustain economic growth. In a stationary equilibrium, the growth rate is constant and endogenous to market incentives.

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 20d
Chart o the morning: German GDP growth has stalled.
on.ft.com/48Hm3FS

Reposted by Antonio Fatás, David Darmofal

crampell.bsky.social
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 21d
"in the months following the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the dollar switched from rising during periods of market volatility to falling, and thus appeared to switch from a safe-haven to a ‘risk-on’ currency"
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Dollar dominance and the Trump administration
There is general agreement that a currency’s safe-haven status can be gauged by its response to changes in financial volatility. This column documents how, in the months following the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the dollar switched from rising during periods of market volatility to falling, and thus appeared to switch from a safe-haven to a ‘risk-on’ currency. Its reversion to traditional flight-to-safety behaviour in recent months may indicate that this ‘risk-on’ episode was a one-time event, but it is also possible that even as financial markets have calmed down, foreign entities are taking steps to reduce their dependence on the dollar for trade, payments, and investment.
cepr.org

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 21d
Really nice column on the tax revenues implications of US tariffs.
voxeu.org VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 21d
@kclausing.bsky.social and Maurice Obstfeld evaluate #tariffs as a broad tool of fiscal policy and conclude that, combined with the large income tax cuts, Trump’s tariffs will leave most Americans worse off.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
A graph of US effective tariff rates measured as customs duties relative to total spending on goods imported, 1929-2025. Note: Actual revenues may be lower than those implied by this rate due to myriad exemptions. Source: Data on customs and imports are from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The 2025 tariff is from Budget Lab (2025a). In 2025, the US government underwent a large fiscal switch, with Congress enacting large income tax cuts and the second Trump administration putting new tariffs on goods at levels not seen in the US since the Great Depression. This column evaluates tariffs as a broad tool of fiscal policy, reviewing both tax policy and macroeconomic considerations, and concludes that this fiscal switch will leave most Americans worse off.

Reposted by Edgar Morgenroth, Jacob T. Levy, Antonio Fatás

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 21d
@kclausing.bsky.social and Maurice Obstfeld evaluate #tariffs as a broad tool of fiscal policy and conclude that, combined with the large income tax cuts, Trump’s tariffs will leave most Americans worse off.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
A graph of US effective tariff rates measured as customs duties relative to total spending on goods imported, 1929-2025. Note: Actual revenues may be lower than those implied by this rate due to myriad exemptions. Source: Data on customs and imports are from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The 2025 tariff is from Budget Lab (2025a). In 2025, the US government underwent a large fiscal switch, with Congress enacting large income tax cuts and the second Trump administration putting new tariffs on goods at levels not seen in the US since the Great Depression. This column evaluates tariffs as a broad tool of fiscal policy, reviewing both tax policy and macroeconomic considerations, and concludes that this fiscal switch will leave most Americans worse off.

antoniofatas.bsky.social
Antonio Fatas @antoniofatas.bsky.social · 25d
If this is the best argument that Eric Schmidt can give to deny the existence of a bubble in AI stocks, then it is certainly a bubble. (source: www.ft.com/content/da16...)

Reposted by Iñaki Aldasoro, Antonio Fatás

petertl.bsky.social
Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 26d
The great thing about cryptocurrencies is that they strip banks of their power to create money thereby making the financial system more stable and.....oh
finance.yahoo.com/news/paxos-a...
Paxos Accidentally Minted $300 Trillion of PayPal’s Stablecoin — Then Burned It
Stablecoin issuer Paxos revealed that it erroneously minted $300 trillion worth of PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin on Wednesday, only to reverse the mistake minutes later by burning the excess tokens.Blockc...
finance.yahoo.com

Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt, Jonathan Hopkin, Francesco Nicoli , and 1 more

pauljdavies.bsky.social
Paul J Davies @pauljdavies.bsky.social · 26d
Bubbles are good, actually…

on.ft.com/476jUkn ‘Of course it’s a bubble’: AI start-up valuations soar in investor frenzy
“Of course there’s a bubble,” said Hemant Taneja, chief executive of venture capital firm General Catalyst, which raised an $8bn fund last year and has backed Anthropic and Mistral. “Bubbles are good. Bubbles align capital and talent in a new trend, and that creates some carnage but it also creates enduring, new businesses that change the world.”

Reposted by Simon Lester, Antonio Fatás

tonytassell.bsky.social
Tony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · 26d
FT Investigation: How the Trump companies made $1bn from crypto. Some great work here www.ft.com/content/2ea2...
FT Investigation: How the Trump companies made $1bn from crypto
The president and his family have built a rapidly growing digital assets empire which has been fuelled by the administration’s industry-friendly policies
www.ft.com

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

tobyn.bsky.social
Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 27d
🚨 Central banks’ gold purchases are MASSIVE, they just go to a different school on.ft.com/4nUd1tM
Central banks have been buying a squillion tonnes of gold, promise
Are the numbers real?
on.ft.com

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

financialtimes.com
Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 28d
Breaking news: The 2025 Nobel Prize for Economics has been awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for their work explaining how innovation can drive economic growth. on.ft.com/3WEvVZq

Reposted by Antonio Fatás

piie.com
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · Oct 11
Even concrete US interventions are unlikely to save Argentina's peso for long unless they go further than so far promised—though it might give Milei a rickety bridge through the October election without an embarrassing devaluation.
By Maurice Obstfeld:
America's Argentina rescue won’t save the peso for long
The Argentine peso is in trouble again, but this time the US government is riding to the rescue. In late September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced several supportive measures, including po...
www.piie.com