Jay Shambaugh
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jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh
@jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
1K followers 450 following 45 posts

Professor of Econ and Intl affairs at GW
Former: Under Secretary of Intl Affairs at Treasury, Director of the Hamilton Project at Brookings, Member at WH CEA, Senior /chief economist at CEA.

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Jay C. Shambaugh is an American economist who served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs at the U.S. Department of the Treasury from 2023 to 2025.

Source: Wikipedia
Economics 93%
Business 2%
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jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 20h
The WH chief of staff once declined to hear a night before data briefing (and this was for third estimate of GDP) because he had a call with a reporter later and didn’t want any chance he accidentally said something (or could be construed to have) that leaked the numbers.

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 20h
When I was at the CEA, there was a time the WH and CEA agreed to not give the President the jobs numbers until later in the evening bc he had a speech that night and we didn’t want anyone to think he had tipped the numbers. Media cared and actually asked if he had known them.

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 20h
There are bigger breaches of norms, institutions, and laws recently, but this is illegal for a reason. The idea that talking to or following the President on media gets you market moving info ahead of time is wrong. Other administrations have gone to great lengths to avoid even a hint of impropriety
justinwolfers.bsky.social Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 1d
Holy cow: TRUMP LEAKED THIS MORNING'S PAYROLL NUMBERS.

At 8:20pm last night he posted a photo of a briefing he received from his CEA. It reveals market-moving numbers that were officially released at 8:30am this morning.

(Note: CEA receives the data—confidentially—on Thursday evening.)

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Robert C. Richards, David R. Miller , and 5 more

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 1d
Holy cow: TRUMP LEAKED THIS MORNING'S PAYROLL NUMBERS.

At 8:20pm last night he posted a photo of a briefing he received from his CEA. It reveals market-moving numbers that were officially released at 8:30am this morning.

(Note: CEA receives the data—confidentially—on Thursday evening.)

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Reposted by Aaron Sojourner, Stephen D. Murphy, Jay Shambaugh

donmoyn.bsky.social
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 5d
New at Can We Still Govern: @agpines.bsky.social & @lizananat.bsky.social explain how the work volatility of low income service employees will make it hard for them to satisfy new SNAP/Medicaid work requirements, even when they work lots of hours. 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/when-volat...
When Volatile Work Schedules Meet SNAP Work Requirements
New policies put low income workers in jeopardy of losing vital supports
donmoynihan.substack.com

Reposted by Marc Lynch, Kim L. Scheppele, Elizabeth Saunders , and 13 more

abenewman.bsky.social
Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 5d
1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism.
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
Denmark's PM urges Trump to 'stop the threats' of annexing Greenland
The prime minister of Denmark called on Trump to “stop the threats” of the U.S. annexing Greenland after renewed comments garnered international attention.
abcnews.go.com

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 7d
Play from 0:55 open.spotify.com/episode/2sAg.... In case you missed it over the holidays, I was on monetary matters with Jack Farley. We talked about China’s economy, the problems with Trump’s tariff (and other) policies, and the economy more broadly.
China and the Reordering of World Trade | Former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh
Spotify video
open.spotify.com

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 17d
I sat in rooms debating how and if to use sanctions. With each use, you know you are incentivizing others to insulate themselves from the U.S. economy and system. You balance this with gains to national interest from using them. No national interest offset anymore, just damage to us over time.
abenewman.bsky.social Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 17d
12/In the US, it is unclear what national interest is being served by sanctioning EU officials. Increasingly, it looks like hyper elites (think Big Tech) is driving the bus. The result: an acceleration in the breakdown of transatlantic relations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1
www.cambridge.org

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 17d
This whole thread (which stretches back a few weeks) is worth reading.
abenewman.bsky.social Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 17d
12/In the US, it is unclear what national interest is being served by sanctioning EU officials. Increasingly, it looks like hyper elites (think Big Tech) is driving the bus. The result: an acceleration in the breakdown of transatlantic relations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1
www.cambridge.org

Reposted by Simon Lester, Jay Shambaugh

abenewman.bsky.social
Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 17d
12/In the US, it is unclear what national interest is being served by sanctioning EU officials. Increasingly, it looks like hyper elites (think Big Tech) is driving the bus. The result: an acceleration in the breakdown of transatlantic relations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1
www.cambridge.org

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 22d
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/h... the demonization of transgender individuals by this administration is abhorrent. And if you don’t think it impacts you, ask yourself what marginalized group would the people currently in charge not endanger to get more power.
Trump Moves to End Gender-Related Care for Minors, Threatening Hospitals That Offer It
www.nytimes.com

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 22d
Highly recommend this episode from @weisenthal.bsky.social and @tracyalloway.bsky.social . Even if you think you hear / read too much about AI these days, it is both a really fun chat and more importantly one of the better discussions of the practicalities of regulating AI I’ve heard.
weisenthal.bsky.social Joe Weisenthal @weisenthal.bsky.social · 22d
MEET THE POLITICIAN THE AI INDUSTRY WANTS TO STOP

On the new episode we talk to NY Assemblyman Alex Bores about why a brand new pro-AI super PAC is trying to stop him from securing the nomination in the Democratic primary for New York's 12th Congressional District podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
Meet the Politician the AI Industry Is Trying to Stop
Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 12/18/2025 · 47m
podcasts.apple.com

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

weisenthal.bsky.social
Joe Weisenthal @weisenthal.bsky.social · 22d
MEET THE POLITICIAN THE AI INDUSTRY WANTS TO STOP

On the new episode we talk to NY Assemblyman Alex Bores about why a brand new pro-AI super PAC is trying to stop him from securing the nomination in the Democratic primary for New York's 12th Congressional District podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
Meet the Politician the AI Industry Is Trying to Stop
Podcast Episode · Odd Lots · 12/18/2025 · 47m
podcasts.apple.com

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Dec 3
I’ve seen it said we need more frivolous dialogue on Bluesky to balance out all the politics. So, here’s my Spotify wrapped to start some music conversations. Lots of great music this year.

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

conorsen.bsky.social
Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · Dec 1
This is what I think the goods-producing sector in America is doing right now — “We now have a better handle on what tariffs are doing to our business, and in response we’re cutting staff and/or doing more offshoring”:

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 30
The Trump Administration is driving our allies away from us. This hurts diplomatically, but can be damaging to US businesses abroad. US tech firms are a key part of the economy. Reckless trade and foreign policy is endangering our firms long run potential.
parismarx.com Paris Marx @parismarx.com · Nov 25
“Our mid-term goal should be the complete phase-out of Microsoft products, including the Windows operating system. It’s easier than it sounds.”

A cross-party group of lawmakers are pushing for the European Parliament to get off US tech, starting with Microsoft.
Get us off Microsoft! Lawmakers press EU Parliament to change in-house IT.
“We cannot afford this level of dependence on foreign tech,” lawmakers say in letter obtained by POLITICO.
www.politico.eu

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 28
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... For 15 years, my family has bought our Xmas tree at the same local place. They give out branded mugs with the year and a fun design. We will not have a 2025 mug. Owner said high and uncertain tariffs made it impossible to plan and order ahead. Thanks tariffs
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 27
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...

Key quote here “How on earth is this in America’s interest?” It’s not. Damaging our ability to work with other countries for no reason. Awful.
Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Bessma Momani

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 27
This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it
drodrik.bsky.social Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · Nov 27
Another shameful Trump act. South Africa has serious problems but it remains exemplary both in its peaceful democratic transition from a racist regime and in its more recent bounce back from corrupt populism. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...
Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Cas Mudde, Brian Levy, Jay Shambaugh

drodrik.bsky.social
Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · Nov 27
Another shameful Trump act. South Africa has serious problems but it remains exemplary both in its peaceful democratic transition from a racist regime and in its more recent bounce back from corrupt populism. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...
Trump Says South Africa Is Not Invited to G20 Summit in U.S. in 2026
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Martin Paul Eve, Margot C. Finn, Simon Lester , and 1 more

parismarx.com
Paris Marx @parismarx.com · Nov 25
“Our mid-term goal should be the complete phase-out of Microsoft products, including the Windows operating system. It’s easier than it sounds.”

A cross-party group of lawmakers are pushing for the European Parliament to get off US tech, starting with Microsoft.
Get us off Microsoft! Lawmakers press EU Parliament to change in-house IT.
“We cannot afford this level of dependence on foreign tech,” lawmakers say in letter obtained by POLITICO.
www.politico.eu

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Jay Shambaugh

sdonnan.bsky.social
Shawn Donnan @sdonnan.bsky.social · Nov 25
Trump keeps hailing an investment boom that he says is set to top $21 trillion in pledges from companies & countries. But as we write in today's @bloomberg.com Big Take the reality is a third of that. And even that $7 trillion faces major questions.

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions
Bloomberg Economics analysis shows real investment commitments closer to $7 trillion and many of those are in question.
www.bloomberg.com

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 19
Important piece from @msobel.bsky.social & Brad Setser on China’s rising CA surplus and the undervaluation of the RMB. All the attention right now is on US disruption of global trade. But important to remember the imbalance caused by China’s policies & implications for the rest of the world.
msobel.bsky.social msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Nov 18
Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇

Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.

www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...
It’s time for China to let the renminbi appreciate sharply - OMFIF
The renminbi is hugely undervalued. This is an impediment to tackling China’s enormous current account surplus and the leadership’s stated desire of boosting domestic demand.
www.omfif.org

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

msobel.bsky.social
msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · Nov 18
Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇

Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page.

www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...
It’s time for China to let the renminbi appreciate sharply - OMFIF
The renminbi is hugely undervalued. This is an impediment to tackling China’s enormous current account surplus and the leadership’s stated desire of boosting domestic demand.
www.omfif.org

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

hamiltonproject.org
The Hamilton Project @hamiltonproject.org · Nov 17
Raising revenue via tariffs is:
❌ inefficient
❌ ineffective
❌ regressive

Learn more from @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social:
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 5
Right now, the Supreme Court is hearing arguments about the legality of the Trump emergency tariffs. Part of the question is their role raising revenue. Separate from legality, we should remember tariffs are a terrible way to raise revenue. More here: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

douglasirwin.bsky.social
Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · Nov 5
This is a historic day for trade policy. Background here ⤵️

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

laurenhlb.bsky.social
Lauren Bauer @laurenhlb.bsky.social · Nov 5
New from @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social - he asks and answers why tariffs are a particularly bad way for the U.S. to raise revenue. (Don’t skip the appendix figure)

#EconSky

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org

Reposted by Simon Lester

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Nov 4
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... The USG is raising roughly $30 billion a month by taxing imports (tariff revenue). This is a huge tax increase due to Trump’s tariffs. Other rich countries don’t do this because tariffs are an awful way to raise revenue. New explainer from me.
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org