Jay Shambaugh | Lightnews

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 5d

Right now, the Supreme Court is hearing arguments about the legality of the Trump emergency tariffs. Part of the question is their role raising revenue. Separate from legality, we should remember tariffs are a terrible way to raise revenue. More here: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · 5d

This is a historic day for trade policy. Background here ⤵️

Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · 6d

www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

Opinion | Trump’s Blanket Tariffs Are a Bridge Too Far

The case against his use of IEEPA is powerful. The justices shouldn’t defer to presidential power.

www.wsj.com

Lauren Bauer @laurenhlb.bsky.social · 5d

New from @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social - he asks and answers why tariffs are a particularly bad way for the U.S. to raise revenue. (Don’t skip the appendix figure)

#EconSky

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 6d

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... The USG is raising roughly $30 billion a month by taxing imports (tariff revenue). This is a huge tax increase due to Trump’s tariffs. Other rich countries don’t do this because tariffs are an awful way to raise revenue. New explainer from me.

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

The Hamilton Project @hamiltonproject.org · 6d

One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August.

But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.hamiltonproject.org

Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 12d

Excellent piece from @douglasirwin.bsky.social
Reagan: "We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends — weakening our economy, our national security and the entire free world — all while cynically waving the American flag
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...

Opinion | The Canadians Are Right About Reagan and Free Trade

www.nytimes.com

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 19d

I’ve been saying this to people too. The idea you want to be able to host a state dinner without putting a tent on the south lawn is reasonable. But tearing down the WH with no regards for historical preservation or involvement and funding from Congress is truly ridiculous.

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 19d

The idea of renovating the East Wing into an event space isn't crazy per se, it's been floated before. But a serious version of it, along with doing it legally, would have kept the exterior size of it about the same. Not a massive boxy behemoth bigger than and looming over the White House proper.

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social · 19d

There's a world where a president whose term overlaps with the 250th anniversary of independence announces that he wants a WH extension to celebrate. He goes to Congress and gets bipartisan buy-in. Maybe it's part of other big 250th projects with public-private funding. And it's popular. (1/2)

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 19d

The idea of renovating the East Wing into an event space isn't crazy per se, it's been floated before. But a serious version of it, along with doing it legally, would have kept the exterior size of it about the same. Not a massive boxy behemoth bigger than and looming over the White House proper.

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social · 19d

There's a world where a president whose term overlaps with the 250th anniversary of independence announces that he wants a WH extension to celebrate. He goes to Congress and gets bipartisan buy-in. Maybe it's part of other big 250th projects with public-private funding. And it's popular. (1/2)

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · 21d

A few pictures I remember fondly from having a view that stared straight out at the east wing.

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Sep 26

My high school AP US history teacher taught us that John Adams was the most important person in the founding of our democracy because he lost to the opposition party and went home.

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Sep 21

You can always learn a great deal about today when reading @trevondlogan.bsky.social write about our history.

Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · Sep 21

A short 🧵 so everyone can learn that political violence is nothing new in America.

Of the 1,331 Black officials who served during Reconstruction, 158 (10.4%) were subjected to political violence. 1/7

Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · Sep 21

A short 🧵 so everyone can learn that political violence is nothing new in America.

Of the 1,331 Black officials who served during Reconstruction, 158 (10.4%) were subjected to political violence. 1/7

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Sep 6

The Trump admin backing off the ban of noncompetes is gratuitously bad policy. When I was Director of @hamiltonproject.org we did lots of work highlighting the bad effects on workers, wages, and the economy that comes with limiting workers ability to switch jobs.This will hurt people and the economy

Reuters @reuters.com · Sep 6

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements reut.rs/4njejxQ

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements

President Donald Trump's administration abandoned on Friday the U.S. government's legal defense of a rule adopted under former President Joe Biden that had banned agreements commonly signed by workers not to join rivals of their employers or launch competing businesses.

reut.rs

Reuters @reuters.com · Sep 6

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements reut.rs/4njejxQ

Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements

President Donald Trump's administration abandoned on Friday the U.S. government's legal defense of a rule adopted under former President Joe Biden that had banned agreements commonly signed by workers not to join rivals of their employers or launch competing businesses.

reut.rs

Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · Sep 2

#Manufacturing purchasing managers are severely depressed:

❗️"Tariffs wreak havoc"
❗️"Too much uncertainty"
❗️"Unstable" policy
❗️"Worse than Great Recession"
❗️"Layoffs" 15%
❗️"It's survival"
❗️"Made in USA more difficult due to #tariffs"

Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · Aug 27

The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.

docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Sarah O'Connor @sarahoconnorft.ft.com · Aug 27

Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 26

Good summary of Trump’s statement he fired Fed governor Lisa Cook. He cannot fire her without cause and it does not appear there is cause. Undermining the Fed will not generate an immediate crisis, but undermining the Fed and the rule of law is bad for the economy and country over time.

Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · Aug 26

I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...

In the Matter of Lisa Cook

Trump’s attempt to fire a Fed governor is illegal. Now we find out whether that matters.

paulkrugman.substack.com

Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · Aug 26

I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...

In the Matter of Lisa Cook

Trump’s attempt to fire a Fed governor is illegal. Now we find out whether that matters.

paulkrugman.substack.com

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 26

Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 26

President Trump said he is firing Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, "effective immediately." It's his most direct assault yet on Fed independence -- and a step that it is far from clear he can legally take.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky

Trump Says He Is Removing Lisa Cook From Federal Reserve Board

www.nytimes.com

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 23

This is something the Administration would know if they read Lisa Cook’s work instead of attacking her. Arguably, her research has never been more relevant to the Fed’s mission. One has to assume innovation and biz formation by immigrants is falling right now.

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 23

Important article by @bencasselman.bsky.social Tariffs and cuts to key programs get attention and will do immediate damage. But Trump is also undermining long run growth. I’d add to Ben’s list: Trump is making parts of the population feel less secure which reduces innovation and entrepreneurship.

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 22

The U.S. has enjoyed a decades-long economic advantage thanks to its reputation as the safest place in the world for investors to put their money and for entrepreneurs to build their businesses.

President Trump may be chipping away at that advantage.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b... #EconSky

Trump’s Attacks on Institutions Threaten a Bulwark of Economic Strength

www.nytimes.com

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 22

The U.S. has enjoyed a decades-long economic advantage thanks to its reputation as the safest place in the world for investors to put their money and for entrepreneurs to build their businesses.

President Trump may be chipping away at that advantage.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b... #EconSky

Trump’s Attacks on Institutions Threaten a Bulwark of Economic Strength

www.nytimes.com

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 14

This will get lost in the shuffle of so many damaging high profile actions by this Administration. But this is just gratuitously bad. The government should support competition and try to help make sure consumers, workers, and small biz don’t get squeezed by huge firms’ market power.

Martin Gaynor @martingaynor.bsky.social · Aug 14

This is a step backwards. A whole of government approach to competition is crucial. This administration could have replaced the EO with one of their own. They didn’t - which accentuates concerns that they’re not committed to supporting and promoting competition. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Revocation of Executive Order on Competition

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1.

www.whitehouse.gov

Martin Gaynor @martingaynor.bsky.social · Aug 14

This is a step backwards. A whole of government approach to competition is crucial. This administration could have replaced the EO with one of their own. They didn’t - which accentuates concerns that they’re not committed to supporting and promoting competition. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Revocation of Executive Order on Competition

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1.

www.whitehouse.gov

Jay Shambaugh @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social · Aug 14

@jasonfurman.bsky.social is appropriately blunt and brutal in his assessment of Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and his atrocious nomination of EJ Antoni. Given the chaos Trump has unleashed on the economy, it’s important to have data to track it. This step undermines the data.

Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · Aug 14

I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission.

Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...

Opinion | Why Economists Are Worried About Trump’s B.L.S. Changes

Most of us just accept that government economic data is the best possible estimate of the economy. That could change, and that would be bad for all of us.

www.nytimes.com

Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · Aug 14

I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission.

Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...

Opinion | Why Economists Are Worried About Trump’s B.L.S. Changes

Most of us just accept that government economic data is the best possible estimate of the economy. That could change, and that would be bad for all of us.

www.nytimes.com

Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · Aug 13

Ending publication of monthly Current Economic Statistics (CES) would violate the will of Congress as expressed federal law.

It would also violate OMB's Statistical Policy Directive 3, which governs all Principal Federal Economic Indicators, including the CES.
www.bls.gov/bls/statisti...

www.bls.gov

Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · Aug 11

The US Constitution forbids export taxes but I guess this payment isn't a "tax" but a payout....🤔 www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/t...

U.S. Government to Take Cut of Nvidia and AMD A.I. Chip Sales to China

www.nytimes.com

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · Aug 1

For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.

No longer.

Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.

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