Jay Shambaugh
@jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Professor of Econ and Intl affairs at GW
Former: Under Secretary of Intl Affairs at Treasury, Director of the Hamilton Project at Brookings, Member at WH CEA, Senior /chief economist at CEA.
Former: Under Secretary of Intl Affairs at Treasury, Director of the Hamilton Project at Brookings, Member at WH CEA, Senior /chief economist at CEA.
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
This is a historic day for trade policy. Background here ⤵️
November 5, 2025 at 2:16 PM
This is a historic day for trade policy. Background here ⤵️
Right now, the Supreme Court is hearing arguments about the legality of the Trump emergency tariffs. Part of the question is their role raising revenue. Separate from legality, we should remember tariffs are a terrible way to raise revenue. More here: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
November 5, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Right now, the Supreme Court is hearing arguments about the legality of the Trump emergency tariffs. Part of the question is their role raising revenue. Separate from legality, we should remember tariffs are a terrible way to raise revenue. More here: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
New from @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social - he asks and answers why tariffs are a particularly bad way for the U.S. to raise revenue. (Don’t skip the appendix figure)
#EconSky
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
#EconSky
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org
November 5, 2025 at 1:46 PM
New from @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social - he asks and answers why tariffs are a particularly bad way for the U.S. to raise revenue. (Don’t skip the appendix figure)
#EconSky
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
#EconSky
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August.
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org
November 4, 2025 at 5:03 PM
One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August.
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... The USG is raising roughly $30 billion a month by taxing imports (tariff revenue). This is a huge tax increase due to Trump’s tariffs. Other rich countries don’t do this because tariffs are an awful way to raise revenue. New explainer from me.
Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue - The Hamilton Project
In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.
www.hamiltonproject.org
November 4, 2025 at 6:18 PM
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... The USG is raising roughly $30 billion a month by taxing imports (tariff revenue). This is a huge tax increase due to Trump’s tariffs. Other rich countries don’t do this because tariffs are an awful way to raise revenue. New explainer from me.
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
Excellent piece from @douglasirwin.bsky.social
Reagan: "We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends — weakening our economy, our national security and the entire free world — all while cynically waving the American flag
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
Reagan: "We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends — weakening our economy, our national security and the entire free world — all while cynically waving the American flag
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
Opinion | The Canadians Are Right About Reagan and Free Trade
www.nytimes.com
October 29, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Excellent piece from @douglasirwin.bsky.social
Reagan: "We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends — weakening our economy, our national security and the entire free world — all while cynically waving the American flag
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
Reagan: "We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends — weakening our economy, our national security and the entire free world — all while cynically waving the American flag
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
I’ve been saying this to people too. The idea you want to be able to host a state dinner without putting a tent on the south lawn is reasonable. But tearing down the WH with no regards for historical preservation or involvement and funding from Congress is truly ridiculous.
The idea of renovating the East Wing into an event space isn't crazy per se, it's been floated before. But a serious version of it, along with doing it legally, would have kept the exterior size of it about the same. Not a massive boxy behemoth bigger than and looming over the White House proper.
There's a world where a president whose term overlaps with the 250th anniversary of independence announces that he wants a WH extension to celebrate. He goes to Congress and gets bipartisan buy-in. Maybe it's part of other big 250th projects with public-private funding. And it's popular. (1/2)
October 22, 2025 at 8:55 PM
I’ve been saying this to people too. The idea you want to be able to host a state dinner without putting a tent on the south lawn is reasonable. But tearing down the WH with no regards for historical preservation or involvement and funding from Congress is truly ridiculous.
A few pictures I remember fondly from having a view that stared straight out at the east wing.
October 20, 2025 at 11:52 PM
A few pictures I remember fondly from having a view that stared straight out at the east wing.
You can always learn a great deal about today when reading @trevondlogan.bsky.social write about our history.
A short 🧵 so everyone can learn that political violence is nothing new in America.
Of the 1,331 Black officials who served during Reconstruction, 158 (10.4%) were subjected to political violence. 1/7
Of the 1,331 Black officials who served during Reconstruction, 158 (10.4%) were subjected to political violence. 1/7
September 21, 2025 at 10:11 PM
You can always learn a great deal about today when reading @trevondlogan.bsky.social write about our history.
The Trump admin backing off the ban of noncompetes is gratuitously bad policy. When I was Director of @hamiltonproject.org we did lots of work highlighting the bad effects on workers, wages, and the economy that comes with limiting workers ability to switch jobs.This will hurt people and the economy
Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements reut.rs/4njejxQ
Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements
President Donald Trump's administration abandoned on Friday the U.S. government's legal defense of a rule adopted under former President Joe Biden that had banned agreements commonly signed by workers not to join rivals of their employers or launch competing businesses.
reut.rs
September 6, 2025 at 3:15 PM
The Trump admin backing off the ban of noncompetes is gratuitously bad policy. When I was Director of @hamiltonproject.org we did lots of work highlighting the bad effects on workers, wages, and the economy that comes with limiting workers ability to switch jobs.This will hurt people and the economy
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
#Manufacturing purchasing managers are severely depressed:
❗️"Tariffs wreak havoc"
❗️"Too much uncertainty"
❗️"Unstable" policy
❗️"Worse than Great Recession"
❗️"Layoffs" 15%
❗️"It's survival"
❗️"Made in USA more difficult due to #tariffs"
❗️"Tariffs wreak havoc"
❗️"Too much uncertainty"
❗️"Unstable" policy
❗️"Worse than Great Recession"
❗️"Layoffs" 15%
❗️"It's survival"
❗️"Made in USA more difficult due to #tariffs"
September 2, 2025 at 2:31 PM
#Manufacturing purchasing managers are severely depressed:
❗️"Tariffs wreak havoc"
❗️"Too much uncertainty"
❗️"Unstable" policy
❗️"Worse than Great Recession"
❗️"Layoffs" 15%
❗️"It's survival"
❗️"Made in USA more difficult due to #tariffs"
❗️"Tariffs wreak havoc"
❗️"Too much uncertainty"
❗️"Unstable" policy
❗️"Worse than Great Recession"
❗️"Layoffs" 15%
❗️"It's survival"
❗️"Made in USA more difficult due to #tariffs"
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
August 27, 2025 at 4:29 PM
The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...
August 27, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...
Good summary of Trump’s statement he fired Fed governor Lisa Cook. He cannot fire her without cause and it does not appear there is cause. Undermining the Fed will not generate an immediate crisis, but undermining the Fed and the rule of law is bad for the economy and country over time.
I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...
In the Matter of Lisa Cook
Trump’s attempt to fire a Fed governor is illegal. Now we find out whether that matters.
paulkrugman.substack.com
August 26, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Good summary of Trump’s statement he fired Fed governor Lisa Cook. He cannot fire her without cause and it does not appear there is cause. Undermining the Fed will not generate an immediate crisis, but undermining the Fed and the rule of law is bad for the economy and country over time.
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...
In the Matter of Lisa Cook
Trump’s attempt to fire a Fed governor is illegal. Now we find out whether that matters.
paulkrugman.substack.com
August 26, 2025 at 12:05 PM
I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
This action by Lisa Cook is courageous, principled, and deserves broad support.
Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
President Trump said he is firing Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, "effective immediately." It's his most direct assault yet on Fed independence -- and a step that it is far from clear he can legally take.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky
August 26, 2025 at 3:08 AM
This action by Lisa Cook is courageous, principled, and deserves broad support.
Important article by @bencasselman.bsky.social Tariffs and cuts to key programs get attention and will do immediate damage. But Trump is also undermining long run growth. I’d add to Ben’s list: Trump is making parts of the population feel less secure which reduces innovation and entrepreneurship.
The U.S. has enjoyed a decades-long economic advantage thanks to its reputation as the safest place in the world for investors to put their money and for entrepreneurs to build their businesses.
President Trump may be chipping away at that advantage.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b... #EconSky
President Trump may be chipping away at that advantage.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b... #EconSky
Trump’s Attacks on Institutions Threaten a Bulwark of Economic Strength
www.nytimes.com
August 23, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Important article by @bencasselman.bsky.social Tariffs and cuts to key programs get attention and will do immediate damage. But Trump is also undermining long run growth. I’d add to Ben’s list: Trump is making parts of the population feel less secure which reduces innovation and entrepreneurship.
This will get lost in the shuffle of so many damaging high profile actions by this Administration. But this is just gratuitously bad. The government should support competition and try to help make sure consumers, workers, and small biz don’t get squeezed by huge firms’ market power.
This is a step backwards. A whole of government approach to competition is crucial. This administration could have replaced the EO with one of their own. They didn’t - which accentuates concerns that they’re not committed to supporting and promoting competition. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Revocation of Executive Order on Competition
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1.
www.whitehouse.gov
August 14, 2025 at 2:34 PM
This will get lost in the shuffle of so many damaging high profile actions by this Administration. But this is just gratuitously bad. The government should support competition and try to help make sure consumers, workers, and small biz don’t get squeezed by huge firms’ market power.
@jasonfurman.bsky.social is appropriately blunt and brutal in his assessment of Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and his atrocious nomination of EJ Antoni. Given the chaos Trump has unleashed on the economy, it’s important to have data to track it. This step undermines the data.
I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission.
Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...
Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...
Opinion | Why Economists Are Worried About Trump’s B.L.S. Changes
Most of us just accept that government economic data is the best possible estimate of the economy. That could change, and that would be bad for all of us.
www.nytimes.com
August 14, 2025 at 1:49 PM
@jasonfurman.bsky.social is appropriately blunt and brutal in his assessment of Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and his atrocious nomination of EJ Antoni. Given the chaos Trump has unleashed on the economy, it’s important to have data to track it. This step undermines the data.
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
Ending publication of monthly Current Economic Statistics (CES) would violate the will of Congress as expressed federal law.
It would also violate OMB's Statistical Policy Directive 3, which governs all Principal Federal Economic Indicators, including the CES.
www.bls.gov/bls/statisti...
It would also violate OMB's Statistical Policy Directive 3, which governs all Principal Federal Economic Indicators, including the CES.
www.bls.gov/bls/statisti...
www.bls.gov
August 13, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Ending publication of monthly Current Economic Statistics (CES) would violate the will of Congress as expressed federal law.
It would also violate OMB's Statistical Policy Directive 3, which governs all Principal Federal Economic Indicators, including the CES.
www.bls.gov/bls/statisti...
It would also violate OMB's Statistical Policy Directive 3, which governs all Principal Federal Economic Indicators, including the CES.
www.bls.gov/bls/statisti...
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
The US Constitution forbids export taxes but I guess this payment isn't a "tax" but a payout....🤔 www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/t...
U.S. Government to Take Cut of Nvidia and AMD A.I. Chip Sales to China
www.nytimes.com
August 11, 2025 at 12:07 AM
The US Constitution forbids export taxes but I guess this payment isn't a "tax" but a payout....🤔 www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/t...
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
This is awful. Reliable economic data is a key strength of the US economy.
When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises.
I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance.
When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises.
I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance.
August 1, 2025 at 6:40 PM
This is awful. Reliable economic data is a key strength of the US economy.
When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises.
I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance.
When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises.
I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance.
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.
No longer.
Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.
No longer.
Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.
August 1, 2025 at 6:51 PM
For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.
No longer.
Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.
No longer.
Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
I guess we're past the point of persuasion, but don't say we didn't warn you.
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Proposed SNAP cuts would permanently undermine recession readiness and responsiveness - The Hamilton Project
Lauren Bauer and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach warn that the budget bill would undermine SNAP's role as an automatic stabilizer during recessions.
www.hamiltonproject.org
July 3, 2025 at 2:26 PM
I guess we're past the point of persuasion, but don't say we didn't warn you.
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Reposted by Jay Shambaugh
Xi is *this* close to saying "overcapacity". On the tip of his tongue!
China needs to “lawfully regulate enterprises’ disorderly low-price competition, guide companies to improve product quality, promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity”
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
China needs to “lawfully regulate enterprises’ disorderly low-price competition, guide companies to improve product quality, promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity”
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
China’s Xi singles out ‘disorderly low-price competition’ for attention
Officials have favoured a vaguer term – “involutionary competition” – but president cut to the chase at top-level economic meeting.
www.scmp.com
July 2, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Xi is *this* close to saying "overcapacity". On the tip of his tongue!
China needs to “lawfully regulate enterprises’ disorderly low-price competition, guide companies to improve product quality, promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity”
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
China needs to “lawfully regulate enterprises’ disorderly low-price competition, guide companies to improve product quality, promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity”
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...