Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social
Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst).
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
Inequality, labor market policies and competition.
Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative
Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: https://www.thewagestandard.com
Pinned
Arin Dube
@arindube.bsky.social
· Dec 10
Very excited to see The Wage Standard in The Next Big Idea Club's Must Read Books list!
Once upon a time, the American government actually paid attention to the oil men before doing coups and interventions (see next post).
We used to be a country, a real country. www.cnn.com/2026/01/09/p...
We used to be a country, a real country. www.cnn.com/2026/01/09/p...
‘It’s uninvestible’: Trump’s Venezuela pitch met with skepticism from oil executives | CNN Politics
‘It’s uninvestible’: Trump’s Venezuela pitch met with skepticism from oil executives
www.cnn.com
January 10, 2026 at 5:22 AM
Once upon a time, the American government actually paid attention to the oil men before doing coups and interventions (see next post).
We used to be a country, a real country. www.cnn.com/2026/01/09/p...
We used to be a country, a real country. www.cnn.com/2026/01/09/p...
Renée Good’s murder is a line in the sand.
It’s also a clarifying moment, watching so many on the right double down - excusing and endorsing state-sponsored terror.
So we organize.
Build our movement.
All in the best tradition of American democracy.
It’s also a clarifying moment, watching so many on the right double down - excusing and endorsing state-sponsored terror.
So we organize.
Build our movement.
All in the best tradition of American democracy.
January 10, 2026 at 3:05 AM
Renée Good’s murder is a line in the sand.
It’s also a clarifying moment, watching so many on the right double down - excusing and endorsing state-sponsored terror.
So we organize.
Build our movement.
All in the best tradition of American democracy.
It’s also a clarifying moment, watching so many on the right double down - excusing and endorsing state-sponsored terror.
So we organize.
Build our movement.
All in the best tradition of American democracy.
“When people give me things, I post them.”
That’s a terrifying decision rule for someone comfortable wielding unchecked power over anyone in this world.
That’s a terrifying decision rule for someone comfortable wielding unchecked power over anyone in this world.
January 10, 2026 at 1:57 AM
“When people give me things, I post them.”
That’s a terrifying decision rule for someone comfortable wielding unchecked power over anyone in this world.
That’s a terrifying decision rule for someone comfortable wielding unchecked power over anyone in this world.
Reposted by Arin Dube
New York Fed unveils new labor market tightness index www.newyorkfed.org/research/lab...
Labor Market Tightness Index
An indicator of labor market tightness for summarizing current wage pressures and predicting wage inflation.
www.newyorkfed.org
January 9, 2026 at 12:55 PM
Who is ready for 2027?
January 9, 2026 at 1:56 AM
Who is ready for 2027?
Reposted by Arin Dube
Rest in Peace Renee Good
We will remember Renee Good.
January 8, 2026 at 4:23 AM
Rest in Peace Renee Good
Reposted by Arin Dube
"An analysis of footage from three camera angles shows that the motorist was driving away from—not toward—a federal officer when he opened fire."
Great video analysis of Minneapolis shooting from NYT. These frames show drawing of gun and exact moment of first shot.
www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...
Great video analysis of Minneapolis shooting from NYT. These frames show drawing of gun and exact moment of first shot.
www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...
January 8, 2026 at 12:48 PM
"An analysis of footage from three camera angles shows that the motorist was driving away from—not toward—a federal officer when he opened fire."
Great video analysis of Minneapolis shooting from NYT. These frames show drawing of gun and exact moment of first shot.
www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...
Great video analysis of Minneapolis shooting from NYT. These frames show drawing of gun and exact moment of first shot.
www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...
We will remember Renee Good.
January 8, 2026 at 1:35 AM
We will remember Renee Good.
Reposted by Arin Dube
It was not "domestic terrorism.” It was state sanctioned violence.
A family will forever live with the pain caused by the admin's reckless and deadly actions.
Abolishing ICE is not enough. They must be held accountable.
A family will forever live with the pain caused by the admin's reckless and deadly actions.
Abolishing ICE is not enough. They must be held accountable.
Rep. Omar: Trump admin’s take on MN shooting is ‘delusional,’ ‘we’ve all seen the video’ | CNN
Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar joins The Lead.
www.cnn.com
January 8, 2026 at 12:50 AM
It was not "domestic terrorism.” It was state sanctioned violence.
A family will forever live with the pain caused by the admin's reckless and deadly actions.
Abolishing ICE is not enough. They must be held accountable.
A family will forever live with the pain caused by the admin's reckless and deadly actions.
Abolishing ICE is not enough. They must be held accountable.
Two biases distort how we judge economic life of ordinary people.
One, often elite-driven, downplays the harms, especially inequality. The other is plain negativity bias, often amplified by media.
Our goal? Strike the right balance: acknowledge real progress without pretending the work is done.
One, often elite-driven, downplays the harms, especially inequality. The other is plain negativity bias, often amplified by media.
Our goal? Strike the right balance: acknowledge real progress without pretending the work is done.
December 30, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Two biases distort how we judge economic life of ordinary people.
One, often elite-driven, downplays the harms, especially inequality. The other is plain negativity bias, often amplified by media.
Our goal? Strike the right balance: acknowledge real progress without pretending the work is done.
One, often elite-driven, downplays the harms, especially inequality. The other is plain negativity bias, often amplified by media.
Our goal? Strike the right balance: acknowledge real progress without pretending the work is done.
Beyonce joins the ranks of a policy failure
No one on earth should ever accumulate this much wealth, not even our faves
Beyoncé Is Now a Billionaire
The Cowboy Carter Tour earnings were enough to push her into a new echelon.
www.thecut.com
December 30, 2025 at 7:02 AM
Beyonce joins the ranks of a policy failure
It's amazing how myopic the tech elite have demonstrated themselves to be. They have very little support among voters in either party, and this will show up in policies. And yet, they seem to show little recognition of this. At some point, a tax on their wealth will be the least of their concerns.
December 29, 2025 at 9:35 PM
It's amazing how myopic the tech elite have demonstrated themselves to be. They have very little support among voters in either party, and this will show up in policies. And yet, they seem to show little recognition of this. At some point, a tax on their wealth will be the least of their concerns.
Merry Christmas! 🎄🎁
December 25, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Merry Christmas! 🎄🎁
Important work using U.S. tax data shows businesses have absorbed minimum wage increases without affecting employment, and through higher revenue-likely reflecting price & productivity offsets. Also shows how reallocation towards more productive firms offers another margin of adjustment.
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns,” by Rao (@nirupama.bsky.social) and Risch: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Who’s Afraid of the Minimum Wage? Measuring the Impacts on Independent Businesses Using Matched U.S. Tax Returns*
Abstract. A common concern surrounding minimum wage policies is their impact on independent businesses, which are often feared to be less able to bear or p
doi.org
December 24, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Important work using U.S. tax data shows businesses have absorbed minimum wage increases without affecting employment, and through higher revenue-likely reflecting price & productivity offsets. Also shows how reallocation towards more productive firms offers another margin of adjustment.
It's quite remarkable how economists on X skews right. The Bluesky/X divide within the economics community is like a microcosm of American politics
December 24, 2025 at 3:12 PM
It's quite remarkable how economists on X skews right. The Bluesky/X divide within the economics community is like a microcosm of American politics
Reposted by Arin Dube
Labor market was so awful in the 1980s that real wages fell for the bottom fifth of workers and didn't bounce back for over a decade
December 20, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Labor market was so awful in the 1980s that real wages fell for the bottom fifth of workers and didn't bounce back for over a decade
The 1980s really didn't produce good wage outcomes for the bottom half of the American workforce. Worse than before, and what came after (partial rebound in the late 1990s and 2010s.)
December 20, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The 1980s really didn't produce good wage outcomes for the bottom half of the American workforce. Worse than before, and what came after (partial rebound in the late 1990s and 2010s.)
Reposted by Arin Dube
This stuff really happened! And it really crushed workers. It's so odd see a kind of whig economic history re-emerge in the last few years
The list includes: high unemployment; falling unionization; falling real minimum wage; automation and technical change; trade. overall 1980 was an inflection point in most measures of pay. discuss some of this is my book (The Wage Standard).
December 20, 2025 at 3:36 PM
This stuff really happened! And it really crushed workers. It's so odd see a kind of whig economic history re-emerge in the last few years
Growth of real wage (purchasing power) has continued to be strong,* and broad-based, even as nominal wage growth has slowed.
*not affected very much by quirks in last month's CPI print.
*not affected very much by quirks in last month's CPI print.
December 19, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Growth of real wage (purchasing power) has continued to be strong,* and broad-based, even as nominal wage growth has slowed.
*not affected very much by quirks in last month's CPI print.
*not affected very much by quirks in last month's CPI print.
Reposted by Arin Dube
Public Service Announcement:
🚨New updated version (1.0.2) of -lpdid- STATA command now available🚨
Update the command by typing
ssc install lpdid, replace
directly in STATA
Then look at the updated help file
help lpdid
See below for the key new features...
🚨New updated version (1.0.2) of -lpdid- STATA command now available🚨
Update the command by typing
ssc install lpdid, replace
directly in STATA
Then look at the updated help file
help lpdid
See below for the key new features...
December 18, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Public Service Announcement:
🚨New updated version (1.0.2) of -lpdid- STATA command now available🚨
Update the command by typing
ssc install lpdid, replace
directly in STATA
Then look at the updated help file
help lpdid
See below for the key new features...
🚨New updated version (1.0.2) of -lpdid- STATA command now available🚨
Update the command by typing
ssc install lpdid, replace
directly in STATA
Then look at the updated help file
help lpdid
See below for the key new features...
Reposted by Arin Dube
I was also bored and pulled up the replication package.
The results are quite sensitive in aggregate to needing the controls. Here's the replication of Figure 3, including the case w/o controls:
The results are quite sensitive in aggregate to needing the controls. Here's the replication of Figure 3, including the case w/o controls:
December 12, 2025 at 10:54 PM
I was also bored and pulled up the replication package.
The results are quite sensitive in aggregate to needing the controls. Here's the replication of Figure 3, including the case w/o controls:
The results are quite sensitive in aggregate to needing the controls. Here's the replication of Figure 3, including the case w/o controls:
One thing this discussion highlights - as did Bharat and Neale's NYT oped - is that the ideas initially proposed by my colleague @isabellamweber.bsky.social on strategic price caps resonate with many people, and worth engaging with seriously.
This from @davidshor.bsky.social made me LOL. "having wealthy people or economists be mad at you is a feature, not a bug" .... anyway, it's a very interesting conversation I recommend it.
December 12, 2025 at 11:41 PM
One thing this discussion highlights - as did Bharat and Neale's NYT oped - is that the ideas initially proposed by my colleague @isabellamweber.bsky.social on strategic price caps resonate with many people, and worth engaging with seriously.
This from @davidshor.bsky.social made me LOL. "having wealthy people or economists be mad at you is a feature, not a bug" .... anyway, it's a very interesting conversation I recommend it.
December 12, 2025 at 8:48 PM
This from @davidshor.bsky.social made me LOL. "having wealthy people or economists be mad at you is a feature, not a bug" .... anyway, it's a very interesting conversation I recommend it.
Really enjoyed this discussion between @pkrugman.bsky.social and @hcrichardson.bsky.social. Something Paul said that I want to highlight: negativity bias affects both right and left. I discuss this in my book as well. Some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Live with Heather Cox Richardson
A recording from Paul Krugman and Heather Cox Richardson's live video
open.substack.com
December 11, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Really enjoyed this discussion between @pkrugman.bsky.social and @hcrichardson.bsky.social. Something Paul said that I want to highlight: negativity bias affects both right and left. I discuss this in my book as well. Some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Reposted by Arin Dube
Between 1979–2019, top pay (90th pct.) climbed 53%, middle only 23%, bottom (10th pct.) even lower 7%. (Productivity per hour climbed much more at 73%.)
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
December 11, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Between 1979–2019, top pay (90th pct.) climbed 53%, middle only 23%, bottom (10th pct.) even lower 7%. (Productivity per hour climbed much more at 73%.)
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.